The Europeans are really gonna struggle with the PLAN in the long term. It won't be difficult for PLAN to operate out of North Africa and the unfrozen Arctic in another 15 years.
Europe must resist pressure to become ‘America’s followers,’ says Macron
- Thread starter Ashwin
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The Europeans are really gonna struggle with the PLAN in the long term. It won't be difficult for PLAN to operate out of North Africa and the unfrozen Arctic in another 15 years.
France has started the difficult process of shooting itself in the foot, where they will end up standing alone in the end.
The idea behind strategic autonomy for the EU is to make them more assertive globally, but France wants to take Europe in a different direction.
Sadly, not the case for China. To them, American presence in the Western Pacific is an existential threat, so a push-back is inevitable, without a doubt. The only question needed answered is what the US will do about it.
Not military assistance as that would earn them sanctions, but financial definitely. People always make the point that all NATO countries are helping Ukraine, but North Korea and Iran are providing Russia weapons, China is funding them (and stopping their currency flatlining). So it's very much a battle between NATO and an axis of evil, as well as between two countries.
That's actually a good point Paddy. China could move production facilities there too or sign a ToT agreement with these governments who'd use them to churn out weapons . On the face of it , China hasn't violated any of the west's terms on the issue or their red lines.
So how's the west going to respond ? With a Chinese specific version of CAATSA ? How long do you think Washington would take to enact such a legislation ? I mean would it come before an Ukrainian victory which is all but a formality as of now or after it ?
True. North Africa is a strategic weakness for Europe. Macron's Africa trip was a disaster as well. Despite high hopes for Macron, it's not looked good overall.
That's why I don't understand Macron. Instead of timing his speech right after his China trip disaster and the contents being that. Why not just say EU should get stronger and have more strategic power? If he wants a strong Europe he needs to the consent and willing cooperation of Eastern and the rest of Europe. This is like the opposite way to do it. Even if countries are agreeing behind the scenes, I don't see the advantage of all this drama.
Why do we have to lump in Taiwan? Why not just say something like Europe needs the power to handle Ukraine like situation without the USA.
Super popular and true statement on both sides of the Atlantic.
I guess when I said everyone, it's excluding the elephant in the room.
Anyways, it's quite challenging for the US. Have to win economically, and militarily, while China only has to do one or the other.
also there's far too much trolling on this forum.
Yup. 2K NLAWs prevented the takeover of Kyiv & from being spelled Kiev. In which case 20K such armaments would've liberated the occupied parts of Ukraine by now . So why didn't it happen ? Which was exactly the intent behind my previous post.
How much fire matches worth if you're stranded in the wilderness? This was a lesson my grade 5 teacher taught us. Everyone answered like 2-5$ When he said $1000-10000+ easily.
No one in the West especially USA wanted to sent munitions to a doomed cause. So first 2-3 weeks Ukraine basically was on their own before resupply.
Also, NLAW had a peak effect on the first week due to the zerg rush and their part in stopping it. The threat in the first week isn't military, it's mainly shock, psychological and surprise/unpreparedness. NLAWs obviously lost relevance after it became an artillery battle, but before it was exactly what the Ukrainians needed to halt the tanks for artillery to blast em.
Who knows, no NLAWs maybe Ukrainians lose Moshchun, lose some other city and it snowballs from there.
India famously flooded the Pakistani tanks in a war iirc ? Got that in common with the Ukrainians heh.
I don't think you understood the intent behind the previous post of mine you've quoted. Just to clarify , I was questioning the industrial capacity of the UK if it were to take on Russia & the massive state of disrepair of the Royal armed forces given shrinking budgets & a host of other factors . The Ukrainian analogy was merely mentioned to buttress my larger point.
Yes, we all know the UK isn't capable of fighting squat. Neither is the French or Germans. Germany 2 days worth of ammunition. France? 18 guns was basically 25% of their artillery. I still think the 2k NLAW at the start might have saved Kyiv.
In 2011, UK/France ran an air operation in Libya. They ran out of guided munitions in the first week of operations. That probably didn't change a decade later given the situation in Ukraine.
However, we also now know the Russians are hugely incompetent at basic military things and that Europe as a whole would have slapped Russia silly pre Feb 24th.
Furthermore, my point isn't to dwell on the lack of UK power, which we all know has diminished greatly post brexit and clown fisata, but to at least appreciate their contribution to Ukraine. It's not like the French with their IC could take on Russia either. They've been fighting a COIN operation in Africa for a long time. Despite this, France's contribution to Ukraine has been quite sad. Not sending enough gear is whatever. Openly sabotaging passage of more aid in US congress with Republicans is another thing.
I'm a very pro Ukraine person and pro EU power/integration, but why is Macron such an idiot.
Anyways, USA spends 50% of financial aid and 75% of military aid in Ukraine. France is behind Canada as a % of GDP. Why not fix that first if you want to not follow America.
In line with what you (and @randomradio) are saying, China is said to be seeking a naval base on the Atlantic coast of Africa. We are talking about Equatorial Guinea...
(2021)
China’s new military base in Africa: What it means for Europe and America – European Council on Foreign Relations
A permanent Chinese military installation in Equatorial Guinea is the culmination of nearly a decade’s investment in Africa – and will not be the last of such b
ecfr.eu
In line with what you (and @randomradio) are saying, China is said to be seeking a naval base on the Atlantic coast of Africa. We are talking about Equatorial Guinea...
(2021)
China’s new military base in Africa: What it means for Europe and America – European Council on Foreign Relations
A permanent Chinese military installation in Equatorial Guinea is the culmination of nearly a decade’s investment in Africa – and will not be the last of such b
Europe is some dumb rednecks for thinking distance from China physically means anything in the modern age.
Anyways, it's natural for China to counter America entering their backyard with this. I don't like it obviously, because I think Xi is evil.
My point which I made very early on in this thread is what Macron is proposing is too late in the day. On 24th February 2022 when the first shots were fired in the Russo Ukrainian borders the world but especially the EU wasn't the same again.
The French plan was always to dominate the EU imbuing it with their own independent steak. They couldn't do so alone. In comes Germany as le Francais realised pretty early on they couldn't trust UK to side with the rest of Europe in moves which could essentially undermine Anglo pre dominance which is the same as American pre dominance.
But ze Germans were conflicted. There's not enough to suggest Germany under Merkel shared le Francais thoughts on the future of the EU . In any case an independent foreign policy can only come from an independent Defence industry along with corresponding rise in the armed forces profile of these nations.
If anything under Merkel the armed forces were emaciated . How exactly are you going to build up an independent Defence industry cum armed forces leave alone an independent foreign policy or even economic policy .
By the time the Europeans could resolve this issue to the satisfaction of le Francais 24th Feb occurred.
It's no point giving any importance to what Macron has to say now . His hand which was already weak has been extremely weakened since the invasion .
See it as posturing by le Francais . Macron , Le Francais & their independent streak have essentially been castrated. Although it may sound harsh it's the truth.
I don't get why France didn't support Ukraine much stronger instead of valuing phone time with Vlady so much.
That would have led to trust between West and East Europe and a true European federation.
Instead we get this shit show. I don't want a grand alliance with Poland. They're cool, but what exactly is Poland gonna do about Taiwan or China? Europe as a federation on the hand could handle Russia, the Middle East and help in the Pacific. Instead, USA is holding the bag in Europe still.
As usual it's up to Ukraine to redeem the US and Europe failures.
What kind of magic tricks ya got this time Ukraine lol. Dealing with an intel leak yeesh. Can they rewrite military history for the 3rd time?
By that metric, Europe's done more than what China's done.
But I don't believe China contributed much to Russia's currency. The Russians already had a large forex war chest and that's grown over the last year with a high surplus. In fact I'd argue the Chinese reduced their imports due to lockdowns in their own country.
As Africa gets richer, the people are naturally going to get more assertive. The religious divide doesn't help either.
The rest of Europe can't take France seriously 'cause they lack the US's military muscle. Europe would love to have strategic autonomy but they lose interest during price analysis. Combined Europe needs a navy that's half as powerful as the USN, fat chance of that ever happening. So it makes sense to just listen to the US when they are willing to do it for free.
China only has to destroy Taiwan and severely damage the USN, and that's victory in and of itself. Rebuilding the USN will take decades and a destroyed Taiwan will no longer be defensible. The Chinese could very easily wipe out half the population.