First of all, 1000 km per day is a speed of 22.5 kt, which is achievable by the CDG escort without any insoluble problems.
Escorts do not have that range. Multiple refuelling stops will have to be made, and numerous supply stops as well, at 22.5kt 'cause cruise speeds are much lower than that. And once you get to the battlespace, there's not much supplies available. And the Chinese have enough numbers to surround you.
Secondly, if China were to mount an operation to seize French territory, the preparations would not go unnoticed by French intelligence, which would trigger the deployment I mentioned and pre position of SNA.
It could take a month for the MN to arrive. And, as I said before, the number of ships is not enough. The arrival of the CdG/PANG may stop an invasion of New Caledonia, but not the other islands. And you will have to give up on protecting French shores in the meantime.
Finally, the distance between Shanghai and Papeete is 11,000 km, or more than half the distance between France and our territories.
You are looking at ballistic trajectory, not the full shipping distance. France will have to use either the Panama or the Suez Canal, it's not gonna be easy. And the South Pacific is much more their own frontyard than yours.
Their deployment will also be complicated and will take time, and they don't have all the aircraft carriers you're talking about yet,
That will rapidly change. With 2 shipyards building carriers, which could increase in intensity in a post-war world, they could very easily have 10-20 carriers operating well before the 2040s, when France will have only 1 new carrier.
in addition, if the Rafale encounter these aircraft carriers on their way to Polynesia, it will be an opportunity to sink them.
Instead the Rafales are more than likely gonna be challenged by Chinese fighters first. In this scenario, you are gonna risk your own refuellers rather than put the Chinese carriers at risk. In any case, a fleet 20 Rafales is merely for power projection, not for warfighting. All you can get out of it is one sortie.
In pretty much any scenario, French forces won't make it in time unless forward deployed. And to forward deploy, you need numbers that you don't have. At the same time, you are risking your relatively small navy being sunk, which in turn will put your entire security calculus at risk.
For the Indo-Pacific alone, France needs a 2-3 carrier navy, essentially a Royal Navy or an Indian Navy, so the current MN can stay in the Atlantic.
A war wouldn't have happened over fish, JFC.
What they were doing with NI was far more contentious and even that was never close to war. Now, from my perspective, I'm happy with the new EU proposal and I think it's the DUP being stubborn, before that it was definitely the EU.
Lol, dude. Ever heard of sarcasm?
