Nuclear MAD Scenario and possible effects in Indo Pak China context

Mutually assured destruction is bullshit. There is nothing like that. You can watch YouTube to see the nuclear explosion power on brick house, wooden houses, pigs etc. Pigs even survived direct exposure to nukes with 3rd degree burn! But, the only reason to avoid war is that there has been significant prosperity and progress due to extraction of natural resources. Since natural resources are finite, it is advisable to postpone hostility after they run out so that the war need not be prolonged for too long.

Sir.

I assume you have arrived straight from Mars or some other distant planet. Please do tell us about the effects of Nuclear Explosion on the human body?

Can you explain to me the systemic effects of radiation and NIGA as per the system effect?

Youtube also has Superman, Batman and Incredible Hulk. The latter as a result of absorption of incredible amounts of gamma rays (?) (I don't recall, can look up though, if you want). What, in your wise opinion, will be the effect on you? Are you going to become the Incredible Hulk?

Is your Lymphoid Tissue made up of Plastic-Lead combination that takes care of the Alpha and Beta particles and for Neutron are you assuming that the Lead in you will combine with the fluid compartments i.e. the intra-vascular and extra-vascular component and be an adequate barrier?

Or do you, perhaps, live in a bunker already?

I have checked. The yield only generates shockwave which most modern buildings can withstand. I am also speaking of pigs test in H-bomb.

The cyclone in florida was thousand times stronger than the H-bomb. Also, missile launch can be detected and people can get 1 hour advanced warning


Sir.

When we use the term 'yield' what denotes a yield? And what component as a percentage is the shockwave? Even a conventional explosion has two components of a blast - the fire or "thermal" the shockewave or the "blast" component.

Have you achieved a level of sophistication where the fireball will be missing? What are the effects of Blast on the Human Body? Especially on the viscera? Please do educate us.

Sir, a missile from say Sialkot, will be giving you 1 hour warning? Who will? Do you expect that Pakistan will perhaps call you up and say "Mr Kshitij we have just fired our missile at 1400 hours. This is your 1 hour warning. Till then our missile, which would be at your location in 20 minutes maximum, will be told to hold pattern and wait for exact 1 hour'?
 
Main bad effect is radioactivity.
Blast destroyed an area of some dozen km². Radioactivity spread its effects on thousandS km², and for centuries.

Hiroshima is a +/-20 kilo tons bomb. We are speaking of mega tons bombs (at least hundred Kt).


Sir.

Incorrect.

The majority of the kill effect is achieved by two components primarily - Blast effect and Thermal Effects.

The Radioactive component comes later. That is a result of 'fall out' that is achieved. Hence the targeting is done at 'air burst' and not as a surface blast. There is always a height where the 'fallout' is minimal. Fallout is composed of the soil/sand and other particles that are 'picked up' as the blast occurs, creating a central vortex of superheated air rising rapidly up thereby giving the 'mushroom' cloud typically associated with any blast, but popularly by the Nuclear Blast, which also carries soil/sand and other items (which by themselves convert to lethal projectiles in the initial shock wave generated)

The Radioactivity is from these compounds, which absorb the radioactive conmpound and fall back on Earth as fallout residue. Then the progression of nuclear decay occurs.

The radioactive effect is negated in an air burst. However, in the surface blast, your contention will hold to a certain extent as a person in an open shelter away from epicenter, if somehow survives caving in or thermal/blast effect, will sustain tremendous quantities of radiation. How many will survive .. is a moot question.

Coming back, the fallout leads to creation of NIGA or Neutron Induced Gamma Activity, which plays the major role in post blast radiation effect on survivors of the initial explosion. The same can be negated by evacuation and decontamination of the survivors. And of course, medical treatment at higher centers.
 
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The effect of radition is one of the biggest lies spread around by nuke powers. Hiroshima and Nagasaki both are vibrant cities for last over 70 years. The effect of a blast on ground is contained in a very small area while the blast in air above a height of one kilometer has minimum radiation fallouts with the entire area becoming safe for human population within 15 days.


Sir.

Please do not post such fallacies.

Are you even aware of why the two cities were targeted? Are you aware of the concept of Nominal Bomb? You seem to be aware, having noted your last line, yet continue to subscribe to a view point aimed at distorting facts. What effect in terms of Fallout creation will a blast of 20 (22 Kt precisely) Kt have if done at 1 km, as you have mentioned?
 
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Radioactivity is also not that high. Just 1 second of explosion is insufficient to produce such great amount of radioactivity. Nuclear power plant is a different case as they have waste products of several years and have been undergoing fission for every second and hence has a lot of nuclear by product.

One must not bother much about such radioactivity. Here is a video of a direct exposure whereby a 2kT bomb is exploded right on the heads of 5 soldiers at a height of 3km without any protection -

They lived till their ripe old age


Sir.

Like above, please collate data of fallout generation with a 2 Kt warhead in air burst mode. You seem to have no clue. And it is sad to see you continue to spread misinformation, ignorance of subject matter and downright foolishness across threads here. Suggest get the necessary knowledge before posting non-sense.
 
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And here I thought I had left all that behind. :D


Sir.

The existence of ignorance does not mean that wise cede space. If you are getting an enabled environment to check the mass of non-sense being spouted in mainstream media and the forums across board at times (specific to the subcontinental initiatives), then it is worth taking the time not only to burst such bubbles of foolishness, but also to try and drive sense.

I have noticed quite a few members ignorant of matters here, commenting. It is indeed heartening to see that the ignorance is rampant.

The Bane of knowledge lies in spreading it. Or whatever comes close to that. :)
 
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Sir.

Like above, please collate data of fallout generation with a 2 Kt warhead in air burst mode. You seem to have no clue. And it is sad to see you continue to spread misinformation, ignorance of subject matter and downright foolishness across threads here. Suggest get the necessary knowledge before posting non-sense.
I have seen worse fallout for pesticides. There have been over 1000 over ground nuclear explosion in USA and Russia. No one seems to have actually been affected. Also there are videos of soldiers walking into explosion areas as a drill immediately after explosion. All of them seemed to survive.

Concern only about heat and blast wave. Fallout is for hulk movies.
 
@Falcon

Dear Sir,

Your last five posts were overwhelming. I am going to irritate you by singing your praises:

Let us now praise famous men, and our fathers that begat us.
The Lord hath wrought great glory by them through his great power from the beginning.
Such as did bear rule in their kingdoms, men renowned for their power, giving counsel by their understanding, and declaring prophecies:
Leaders of the people by their counsels, and by their knowledge of learning meet for the people, wise and eloquent are their instructions:
Such as found out musical tunes, and recited verses in writing:
Rich men furnished with ability, living peaceably in their habitations:
All these were honoured in their generations, and were the glory of their times.
There be of them, that have left a name behind them, that their praises might be reported.
And some there be, which have no memorial; who are perished, as though they had never been; and are become as though they had never been born; and their children after them.
But these were merciful men, whose righteousness hath not been forgotten.
With their seed shall continually remain a good inheritance, and their children are within the covenant.
Their seed standeth fast, and their children for their sakes.
Their seed shall remain for ever, and their glory shall not be blotted out.
Their bodies are buried in peace; but their name liveth for evermore.
The people will tell of their wisdom, and the congregation will shew forth their praise.

You will have to share these honours with Parikrama, Nair and Avi, and perhaps others who have modestly not come forward.

There be of them, that have left a name behind them, that their praises might be reported.
And some there be, which have no memorial; who are perished, as though they had never been; and are become as though they had never been born; and their children after them.
But these were merciful men, whose righteousness hath not been forgotten.
Their bodies are buried in peace; but their name liveth for evermore.
The people will tell of their wisdom, and the congregation will shew forth their praise.
 
I have seen worse fallout for pesticides. There have been over 1000 over ground nuclear explosion in USA and Russia. No one seems to have actually been affected. Also there are videos of soldiers walking into explosion areas as a drill immediately after explosion. All of them seemed to survive.

Concern only about heat and blast wave. Fallout is for hulk movies.


Sir.

Please do share with us your experience of Nuclear Tests and Pesticides and the data you gleaned from a comparative 'experience' of the same.

Additionally, you need to check the location of atmospheric and surface as also sub surface testing done BY the countries. Can you put up the data for 'over 1000 over ground nuclear explosion in USA and Russia'?

Additionally, can you please put up the data concerning number of surface, sub-surface and atmospheric tests and the minimum heights of the latter, if it is not too much of a trouble for you?

As for the videos you have 'seen', can you tell me the distance between the test site, the device yield, the time delay till the troops walked into the area? Was it immediately?

Also, can you tell me when these exercises were stopped and why?

Can you tell me the conclusions of these videos which you see, known as 'Battle Innoculation'?

Your input will be appreciated.
 
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On point of the thread as started by @VCheng

Sir.

Your original post as quoted:

"How does India invade a nuclear armed country and not get annihilated in return? Is Kashmir really that important?"

Allow me to subject you to a little bit of 'verbose sermon'.

Never has there been a greater tragedy to befall the Human race, than the emergence of a thought that the concepts of 'Victory' & 'War' as being an aim worthy of pursuit.

War was comprehensively yet simplistically defined by Baron Carl Von Clausewitz in his work On War as “War is an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will” (Book 1, Part 2, p. 75) Clausewitz saw history in relative terms, rejecting absolute categories, standards, and values. The past had to be accepted on its own terms. The historian must attempt to enter into the mindsets and attitudes of any given period.

History, for him, was a dynamic process of change, driven by forces beyond the control and often beyond the comprehension of any individual or group. The approach has emphasised the famous notion that "War is a continuation of politics with an admixture of other means" (i.e., organized violence) and the recognition that war can vary in its forms depending on the changing nature of policy and of the society within which it is waged.

In contrast, another great mind of the time, Baron Antoine Henri de-Jomini, in his work Summary of the Art of War (Precis de l'Art de la Guerre, 1838), was of view of history and of war as being static and simplistic. He saw war as a "great drama," a stage for heroes and military geniuses whose talents were beyond the comprehension of mere mortals. He saw the revolutionary warfare in which he himself had participated as merely the technical near-perfection of a fundamentally unchanging phenomenon, to be modified only by superficial matters like the list of dramatis personae, technology, and transient political motivations. He drew his theoretical and practical prescriptions from his experiences in the Napoleonic wars.

My summation of the above two points is for the benefit of those members who may have a rather simplistic view of war as being an enlarged version of the dance undertaken by two pugilists in a rather bloody yet 'entertaining' bout of boxing on a fine Saturday night. Members would do well to note that the war, by itself, is a perfect admixture of both the above perspectives, and can not be summed up in a word by itself.

Towards this end, I would do grave injustice to another great thinker at the time, Archduke Charles of Austria, if I were to not touch upon his words of wisdom as uttered to the German nation in April 1809:


It is natural to the human mind to look with anxiety on the future; and to endeavour, as far as possible, to calculate the course which events may take; especially in a crisis of extraordinary interest and importance. But it is in general so absurd to attempt prediction, that we should have carefully avoided the dangerous office, if some of our contemporaries had not been more confident; and had not chosen to avow, that they could 'look into the seeds of time, and say which grain would grow and which would not.'

When you talk of the concept of MAD or "Mutually Assured Destruction" the general perception that is carried, and is in fact, foremost on one's mind, is the utter and irreversible destruction of a nation as a demographic and topographic entity.

What most fail to understand is that the concept by itself is implausible and unachievable by a solitary act. There is often the discourse in public domain of the employment of nuclear weapons in a tactical scenario in what may also be called a low yield counter force strike.

What one forgets is that the mere use of the destructive powers of this weapon rests on the cost that the user is willing to pay. It is at this very level that the concept of MAD is a factor in the overall strategic calculus.

In the context of the nations concerned, what is the price that either nation is willing to pay? That is a question that neither you, nor I , nor anyone over here for that matter, can answer.

If we were to enquire the same of the leadership in any of these countries, the leader, howsoever totalitarian or authoritative, will be hard pressed to quantify the price.
 
@Falcon

NOW, Sir, you are beginning to get intimidating. I AM impressed. Clausewitz and Jomini together; WHERE is AUSTERLITZ when we need that little whipper-snapper?

PS: @VCheng is the right person to appreciate your remarks. He is like a piece of Japanese steel; folded over and forged in the fire so many times that he cuts a silken cushion into two. I wish Mr. Pandey would join you. AFTER I have got the popcorn, not before. Truthfully, it is a long time since I have had the satisfaction of sitting back and listening to good conversation.
@Himanshu Pandey , are you around, please, Sir?
 
@Falcon

Here is another video of soldiers walking into the fallout.

Please don't quote arbitrary people and declare that just because they said, it is right.

Here is. My definition of War-
War is a way of determining which philosophy/group is the fittest to survive in the given situation (environment, region and time). The victory depends on who is more reasonable, both over long and short term (strategy and tactics) and favour by supernatural forces (if any).
 
Interesting take.

Is this thought of war being taught at the National Defence Academy? Or at the Indian Military Academy? Or surely at Infantry School at the Young Officer's Course? Or perhaps at Junior, Senior and Higher Command Courses conducted by the Army War College? Or is it at the Premiere National Defence College?

Pray do tell us.

What is the philosophy of war?
And the coup de grace .. reasonableness in war?

@Milspec @Gessler @randomradio @RATHORE @Sathya @nair @Aashish

and others ....

I tag you gentlemen, to understand a new theory of war.
Man is an emotional creature, not rational one. Hence, man acts in more of an emotional way and hence can be unreasonable at times. When the unreasonable people start forcibly interfering in other people's lives and try to force others to submit, then it comes to a choice - be enslaved at force or take risk on one's life to ensure that there is a chance to live in the right manner as determined by one's judgement based on historical evidence. To restore reason, one has to wage war. This is just war.

There can be unjust war too - to gain at others expense or to make someone submit to one's will without any meaningful reason.

War to protect truth (conclusions based on historical evidence and data which are repeatable in nature) is just war. Everything else is unjust war
 
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On point of the thread as started by @VCheng

Sir.

Your original post as quoted:

"How does India invade a nuclear armed country and not get annihilated in return? Is Kashmir really that important?"

Allow me to subject you to a little bit of 'verbose sermon'.

Never has there been a greater tragedy to befall the Human race, than the emergence of a thought that the concepts of 'Victory' & 'War' as being an aim worthy of pursuit.

War was comprehensively yet simplistically defined by Baron Carl Von Clausewitz in his work On War as “War is an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will” (Book 1, Part 2, p. 75) Clausewitz saw history in relative terms, rejecting absolute categories, standards, and values. The past had to be accepted on its own terms. The historian must attempt to enter into the mindsets and attitudes of any given period.

History, for him, was a dynamic process of change, driven by forces beyond the control and often beyond the comprehension of any individual or group. The approach has emphasised the famous notion that "War is a continuation of politics with an admixture of other means" (i.e., organized violence) and the recognition that war can vary in its forms depending on the changing nature of policy and of the society within which it is waged.

In contrast, another great mind of the time, Baron Antoine Henri de-Jomini, in his work Summary of the Art of War (Precis de l'Art de la Guerre, 1838), was of view of history and of war as being static and simplistic. He saw war as a "great drama," a stage for heroes and military geniuses whose talents were beyond the comprehension of mere mortals. He saw the revolutionary warfare in which he himself had participated as merely the technical near-perfection of a fundamentally unchanging phenomenon, to be modified only by superficial matters like the list of dramatis personae, technology, and transient political motivations. He drew his theoretical and practical prescriptions from his experiences in the Napoleonic wars.

My summation of the above two points is for the benefit of those members who may have a rather simplistic view of war as being an enlarged version of the dance undertaken by two pugilists in a rather bloody yet 'entertaining' bout of boxing on a fine Saturday night. Members would do well to note that the war, by itself, is a perfect admixture of both the above perspectives, and can not be summed up in a word by itself.

Towards this end, I would do grave injustice to another great thinker at the time, Archduke Charles of Austria, if I were to not touch upon his words of wisdom as uttered to the German nation in April 1809:


It is natural to the human mind to look with anxiety on the future; and to endeavour, as far as possible, to calculate the course which events may take; especially in a crisis of extraordinary interest and importance. But it is in general so absurd to attempt prediction, that we should have carefully avoided the dangerous office, if some of our contemporaries had not been more confident; and had not chosen to avow, that they could 'look into the seeds of time, and say which grain would grow and which would not.'

When you talk of the concept of MAD or "Mutually Assured Destruction" the general perception that is carried, and is in fact, foremost on one's mind, is the utter and irreversible destruction of a nation as a demographic and topographic entity.

What most fail to understand is that the concept by itself is implausible and unachievable by a solitary act. There is often the discourse in public domain of the employment of nuclear weapons in a tactical scenario in what may also be called a low yield counter force strike.

What one forgets is that the mere use of the destructive powers of this weapon rests on the cost that the user is willing to pay. It is at this very level that the concept of MAD is a factor in the overall strategic calculus.

In the context of the nations concerned, what is the price that either nation is willing to pay? That is a question that neither you, nor I , nor anyone over here for that matter, can answer.

If we were to enquire the same of the leadership in any of these countries, the leader, howsoever totalitarian or authoritative, will be hard pressed to quantify the price.

Now that is an excellent post, Sir. Thank you.

I would only add that the classic view of war and its use as a potent tool of policy assumes a certain modicum of emotionless rationality in the service of national interests by all parties. How that translates in the modern era of asymmetric warfare where one party is driven by religious zeal and its consequent irrationality is not an easy question to answer. Further, how a nuclear weapon in such a scenario would complicate matters is at yet untested, and a thoroughly scary, prospect.

An interesting corollary to the above is that helping proper governance and social stability is in the interest of every civilized country on Earth, even when it means helping stabilize what would be conventionally and conveniently be regarded as enemies.
 
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@Falcon

Here is another video of soldiers walking into the fallout.

Please don't quote arbitrary people and declare that just because they said, it is right.

Here is. My definition of War-
War is a way of determining which philosophy/group is the fittest to survive in the given situation (environment, region and time). The victory depends on who is more reasonable, both over long and short term (strategy and tactics) and favour by supernatural forces (if any).

ARBITRARY people? Clausewitz and Jomini?

Interesting.
 
Now that is an excellent post, Sir. Thank you.

I would only add that the classic view of war and its use as an useful tool of policy assumes a certain modicum of emotionless rationality in the service of national interests by all parties. How that translates in the modern era of asymmetric warfare where one party is driven by religious zeal and its consequent irrationality is not an easy question to answer. Further, how a nuclear weapon in such a scenario would complicate matters is at yet untested, and a thoroughly scary, prospect.

An interesting corollary to the above is that helping proper governance and social stability is in the interest of every civilized country on Earth, even when it means helping stabilize what would be conventionally and conveniently be regarded as enemies
.

Sir,

In a very humble capacity that is a point that has been made by your faithful servant for eight years now. Apparently to no avail; one is strongly reminded of the motto of the Earls Marischal of Scotland, the Keiths.
 
"He's famous? How? If I do not know about him, how can he be famous?" :D

Apropos of nothing.

Krishnamurthy the philosopher and religious leader was accosted in an airport by an apparent stranger who held a long and very detailed conversation with him, in which the great man had hardly anything to say, but merely nodded wisely. After the affable gentleman had left them, Krishnamurthy's companion asked him,"Who was he? You seemed to know each other very well!" Krishnamurthy replied, with a resigned look,"Everyone knows the monkey. Does the monkey know everyone?"
 
Man is an emotional creature, not rational one. Hence, man acts in more of an emotional way and hence can be unreasonable at times. When the unreasonable people start forcibly interfering in other people's lives and try to force others to submit, then it comes to a choice - be enslaved at force or take risk on one's life to ensure that there is a chance to live in the right manner as determined by one's judgement based on historical evidence. To restore reason, one has to wage war. This is just war.

There can be unjust war too - to gain at others expense or to make someone submit to one's will without any meaningful reason.

War to protect truth (conclusions based on historical evidence and data which are repeatable in nature) is just war. Everything else is unjust war

Note to Moderators and Administrators:

Gentlemen, formerly Dear Gentlemen,

You have totally failed in your duties, and should impale yourselves on disk spindles. WHERE is the laughter button?