Chinese Wuhan Virus Thread

[Gautam]

US FDA to lift band on two IPCA plants in India for import of coronavirus medicine

After a ban of nearly six years, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has partially lifted an import alert on Ipca Laboratories’ two labs in Madhya Pradesh, India, to ensure the supply of chloroquine tablets, considered to be one of the possible treatments for the infections.

US FDA to lift band on two IPCA plants in India for import of coronavirus medicine

And I just read that IIT Delhi has created one of the cheapest and fastest test kit for this virus and this kit is unergoing testing at national virology institute in PUne. Jai Ho Bharat ka Jugaad and brains.

Most likely it will be based on antibodies test. That test is inaccurate. WHO recommends virus RNA PCR based test.

IIT-Delhi researchers develop affordable test for Covid-19

IIT-Delhi researchers develop affordable test for Covid-19 | India News - Times of India

 

[Saaho]

@BlackOpsIndia

Read this:
'Trump is right about the coronavirus. The WHO is wrong,' says Israeli expert

Ignore the catchy and provocative headline, the opinion of this expert is similar to our discussion yesterday.

----
“Again, the most interesting issue for decision makers is the mortality rate. When we look at the dry data, we see a very high mortality rate, of 4 to 7 percent, in countries like Italy and Spain, alongside far lower numbers in countries like Germany and South Korea.

“And then there’s China, though it’s very difficult to believe the numbers coming out of there – and in any event no country in the West can allow itself to adopt the measures that China adopted to contain the spread. Now ask yourself: How do you check the mortality rate in all those countries? You take the total number of deaths and divide it by the total of reported patients.”

So the research is biased.

“Very biased. If I can only carry out few tests, I will test those who have the highest chance of becoming ill, and then, when I check the mortality rate among them, I will get very high numbers. But there is one country we can learn from: South Korea. South Korea has been coping with corona for a long time, more than most Western countries, and they lead in the number of tests per capita. Therefore, the official mortality rate there is 0.9 percent. But even in South Korea, not all the infected were tested – most have very mild symptoms.

“The actual number of people who are sick with the virus in South Korea is at least double what’s being reported, so the chance of dying is at least twice as low, standing at about 0.45 percent – very far from the World Health Organization’s [global mortality] figure of 3.4 percent. And that’s already a reason for cautious optimism.”

-----

 

[randomradio]

@BlackOpsIndia

Read this:
'Trump is right about the coronavirus. The WHO is wrong,' says Israeli expert

Ignore the catchy and provocative headline, the opinion of this expert is similar to our discussion yesterday.

----
“Again, the most interesting issue for decision makers is the mortality rate. When we look at the dry data, we see a very high mortality rate, of 4 to 7 percent, in countries like Italy and Spain, alongside far lower numbers in countries like Germany and South Korea.

“And then there’s China, though it’s very difficult to believe the numbers coming out of there – and in any event no country in the West can allow itself to adopt the measures that China adopted to contain the spread. Now ask yourself: How do you check the mortality rate in all those countries? You take the total number of deaths and divide it by the total of reported patients.”

So the research is biased.

“Very biased. If I can only carry out few tests, I will test those who have the highest chance of becoming ill, and then, when I check the mortality rate among them, I will get very high numbers. But there is one country we can learn from: South Korea. South Korea has been coping with corona for a long time, more than most Western countries, and they lead in the number of tests per capita. Therefore, the official mortality rate there is 0.9 percent. But even in South Korea, not all the infected were tested – most have very mild symptoms.

“The actual number of people who are sick with the virus in South Korea is at least double what’s being reported, so the chance of dying is at least twice as low, standing at about 0.45 percent – very far from the World Health Organization’s [global mortality] figure of 3.4 percent. And that’s already a reason for cautious optimism.”

-----

It's difficult to compare S Korea/Japan with Western countries. Korea and Japan worked from the very beginning to control the spread, but countries like Italy just sat on their as*es and did nothing. They started to control it after they had reached stage 3. How does that work?

So Korea and Japan used a lot of different isolation techniques to get the results they have. Their populace also has the culture and discipline necessary to stay indoors and not infect their elderly. Italy was a buffet for the virus.

But hey, a 1% mortality rate is a very good deal. Let's hope a combination of our weather and better immune systems reduce that even more.

If 500 million people in India get infected, then we "only" have 5 million dead in a few months. Hooray...

 

[Saaho]

It's difficult to compare S Korea/Japan with Western countries. Korea and Japan worked from the very beginning to control the spread, but countries like Italy just sat on their as*es and did nothing. They started to control it after they had reached stage 3. How does that work?

So Korea and Japan used a lot of different isolation techniques to get the results they have. Their populace also has the culture and discipline necessary to stay indoors and not infect their elderly. Italy was a buffet for the virus.

But hey, a 1% mortality rate is a very good deal. Let's hope a combination of our weather and better immune systems reduce that even more.

If 500 million people in India get infected, then we "only" have 5 million dead in a few months. Hooray...

Actually, You should also read the rest of the article...

For India, there are too many unknown. That said I agree with "cautious optimism" point of the author on this. If this disease were to become more deadly, mortality rate of 7-10% instead of 1%, you will have 50 million dead. That would be worse. BTW, coronavirus has shown it is capable of higher mortality rates. IIRC MERS had a massive mortality rate of 20-30% (I may be wrong). We (as in whole humanity) should have produced the damn vaccine for this disease, which we are doing right now. A vaccine for SARS, MERS and CoVID-19.

 

[vstol Jockey]

Most likely it will be based on antibodies test. That test is inaccurate. WHO recommends virus RNA PCR based test.

Please have faith in these guys from IIT. They are some of our best brains and I am sure they know what they are talking about. Read the composition of the team. They are either brahmins or mallus. some of our best brains universally accepted. Except that mallus have ruined the God's own country.

 

[Saaho]

Please have faith in these guys from IIT. They are some of our best brains and I am sure they know what they are talking about.

*Ahem* You are talking to one....

I know that institution too well. Not to say that they don't know what they are talking about. Its just more likely to be an antibody based test. Quite a few folks have developed it including South Korea and if you believe them, Bangladesh of all places.

Scientists in Bangladesh develop $3 virus testing kit
Scientists in Bangladesh develop $3 virus testing kit

 

[Paro]

Forget about the world. They are busy cleaning up their own mess. So far India has done a fantastic job compared to all other countries. Imagine even today there are not enough testing kits in San Francisco Bay Area (one of the richest metropolis in the world). Quite a few of my friends and co workers could not be tested due to lack of test kits !!

Same for my friends in NY

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

I was thinking that Human Race has become
Too proud of its Collective Achievements in Science and Technology AND a Tiny Virus has brought us down to earth

 

[randomradio]

Actually, You should also read the rest of the article...

I already posted the article earlier. Post 397.

For India, there are too many unknown. That said I agree with "cautious optimism" point of the author on this. If this disease were to become more deadly, mortality rate of 7-10% instead of 1%, you will have 50 million dead. That would be worse. BTW, coronavirus has shown it is capable of higher mortality rates. IIRC MERS had a massive mortality rate of 20-30% (I may be wrong). We (as in whole humanity) should have produced the damn vaccine for this disease, which we are doing right now. A vaccine for SARS, MERS and CoVID-19.

Can't create a vaccine before the existence of the disease.

There should be so many other viruses that can harm humans that we are not aware of yet, but biding their time in nature.

 

[randomradio]

I was thinking that Human Race has become
Too proud of its Collective Achievements in Science and Technology AND a Tiny Virus has brought us down to earth

Nothing special about a virus epidemic. Has existed for ages.

Imagine if the tranmission of HIV happened like this virus.

 

[Saaho]

I was thinking that Human Race has become
Too proud of its Collective Achievements in Science and Technology AND a Tiny Virus has brought us down to earth

No, it does not work like that. Humans have survived by a continuous game of push and pull with diseases.

Can't create a vaccine before the existence of the disease.

Coronavirus is known for quite sometime, including 2003 SARS, 2011 or 13 MERS but no vaccine was tested completely. The research existed but not productized and shelved. Coronavirus --AFAIK-- is a bit tricky to target as well. All the more reason to prepare in advance.

 

[screambowl]

Please have faith in these guys from IIT. They are some of our best brains and I am sure they know what they are talking about.

Most overrated people in India.

 

[Saaho]

Off-topic, From Wikipedia about MERS, a related but more deadly disease.

---
A study performed between 2010 and 2013, in which the incidence of MERS was evaluated in 310 dromedary camels, revealed high titers of neutralizing antibodies to MERS-CoV in the blood serum of these animals.[16] A further study sequenced MERS-CoV from nasal swabs of dromedary camels in Saudi Arabia and found they had sequences identical to previously sequenced human isolates. Some individual camels were also found to have more than one genomic variant in their nasopharynx.[17] There is also a report of a Saudi Arabian man who became ill seven days after applying topical medicine to the noses of several sick camels and later he and one of the camels were found to have identical strains of MERS-CoV.[18][19] It is still unclear how the virus is transmitted from camels to humans. The World Health Organization advises avoiding contact with camels and to eat only fully cooked camel meat, pasteurized camel milk, and to avoid drinking camel urine. The Saudi Ministry of Agriculture has advised people to avoid contact with camels or wear breathing masks when around them.[20] In response "some people have refused to listen to the government's advice"[21] and kiss their camels in defiance of their government's advice.
---
"Avoid drinking camel urine"
"kiss their camels"

WTF Arabs? Seriously WTF!

 

[_Anonymous_]

A few points worth noting in the present context. The third great plague pandemic which had it's epicenter in Yunnan, China ( where else?) Broke out in the 1850's & travelled to British India in the late 1890's where it claimed 10 million lives over a span of 20 years & continued in various localised forms worldwide since right up to the 1960's in India where in the interim from the first phase it claimed another 12 million lives in the remainder of the 5-6 decades. This was essentially a bubonic plague but some victims of a later pneumonic plague were noticed which means the virus mutated. Right now we aren't aware of the virulence of this virus though it's said that in countries enjoying a higher temperature & humidity levels the virulence drops. Most plagues also see a drop in virulence when it sweeps across a community and extracts a terrible toll by which time the survivors gain some sort of immunity from it.

Third plague pandemic - Wikipedia

 

[randomradio]

Coronavirus is known for quite sometime, including 2003 SARS, 2011 or 13 MERS but no vaccine was tested completely. The research existed but not productized and shelved. Coronavirus --AFAIK-- is a bit tricky to target as well. All the more reason to prepare in advance.

I'm not sure if it works like that. A vaccine has to be specific to the virus after all. And it looks like vaccines have already been developed, but require quite a bit of testing.

Read this.
Here's Why It's Taking So Long to Develop a Vaccine For The New Coronavirus

 

[_Anonymous_]

Off-topic, From Wikipedia about MERS, a related but more deadly disease.

---
A study performed between 2010 and 2013, in which the incidence of MERS was evaluated in 310 dromedary camels, revealed high titers of neutralizing antibodies to MERS-CoV in the blood serum of these animals.[16] A further study sequenced MERS-CoV from nasal swabs of dromedary camels in Saudi Arabia and found they had sequences identical to previously sequenced human isolates. Some individual camels were also found to have more than one genomic variant in their nasopharynx.[17] There is also a report of a Saudi Arabian man who became ill seven days after applying topical medicine to the noses of several sick camels and later he and one of the camels were found to have identical strains of MERS-CoV.[18][19] It is still unclear how the virus is transmitted from camels to humans. The World Health Organization advises avoiding contact with camels and to eat only fully cooked camel meat, pasteurized camel milk, and to avoid drinking camel urine. The Saudi Ministry of Agriculture has advised people to avoid contact with camels or wear breathing masks when around them.[20] In response "some people have refused to listen to the government's advice"[21] and kiss their camels in defiance of their government's advice.
---
"Avoid drinking camel urine"
"kiss their camels"

WTF Arabs? Seriously WTF!

Yes. Out on Twitter whenever Ms mock Dharmiks for usage of gaumutra, you can quote verse chapter & book on the Hadees where their prophet recommended use of camel urine as a medicine for treatment of certain ailments. In all probability it's either from camel urine or unpasteurized camel milk that MERS CoV made the transition from animal to men.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

11 (sometimes) deadly diseases that hopped across species | Live Science

 

[randomradio]

A few points worth noting in the present context. The third great plague pandemic which had it's epicenter in Yunnan, China ( where else?) Broke out in the 1850's & travelled to British India in the late 1890's where it claimed 10 million lives over a span of 20 years & continued in various localised forms worldwide since right up to the 1960's in India where in the interim from the first phase it claimed another 12 million lives in the remainder of the 5-6 decades. This was essentially a bubonic plague but some victims of a later pneumonic plague were noticed which means the virus mutated. Right now we aren't aware of the virulence of this virus though it's said that in countries enjoying a higher temperature & humidity levels the virulence drops. Most plagues also see a drop in virulence when it sweeps across a community and extracts a terrible toll by which time the survivors gain some sort of immunity from it.

Third plague pandemic - Wikipedia

IIRC, of the last 5 major pandemics that happened, 4 originated in China.

 

[Saaho]

I'm not sure if it works like that. A vaccine has to be specific to the virus after all. And it looks like vaccines have already been developed, but require quite a bit of testing.

Yes and no.

Flu shots are updated each year but underlying production capabilities exist. Production and efficacy in more diverse population is better understood. Rather bad vaccines got weeded out already.

With covid, all these things will take time. More like 2-5 years.

Yes. Out on Twitter whenever Ms mock Dharmiks for usage of gaumutra, you can quote verse chapter & book on the Hadees where their prophet recommended use of camel urine as a medicine for treatment of certain ailments. In all probability it's either from camel urine or unpasteurized camel milk that MERS CoV made the transition from animal to men.

LOL!
No, from the looks of it, someone was applying cream on camel's nose. For whatever reason best known to him.

Sometimes I wonder if racist stereotypes about arabs are really true or what?
Goats... Camels...

I predict next major pandemic will start from Goats and middle east (J/K).

God save us.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Four Reasons Civilization Won’t Decline: It Will Collapse - CounterPunch.org