Purges Underway In Russian Security Apparatus After Prigozhin's Mutiny
Reports say Gen. Sergei Surovikin, head of the Russian Air Force and erstwhile Prigozhin ally, was arrested for his part in the mutiny.
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Wagner Group Mutiny Against Russia | Mercenaries moving across Lipetsk towards Moscow - Live Updates
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As of now, a few things about Russia's budget and finances:
Russia’s ‘war’ budget for 2023–2025
On 5 December, Vladimir Putin signed the 2023 budget law which also specifies the general parameters of the budgets for 2024–5. The document assumes that the average price of Urals oil in 2023 will be US$75 per barrel, that inflation will reach 5% by the end of the year, and GDP will fall by...www.osw.waw.pl
So, the revenue figures for 2023 and 2024 have been calculated by assuming oil prices at $75 per barrel. And this is what Russia's central bank has to say about oil prices:
Central bank sees Russian oil price averaging above $55/bbl in 2023-2025
The Russian central bank forecast on Thursday that the price of the country's flagship Urals oil blend will average $55 per barrel in 2023-2025, and the average price of Russian oil overall will be slightly higher than that due to more expensive grades.www.reuters.com
And this is from Bloomberg's report about the current price of Russian oil in the market:
Although it also notes the following:
Also from the Reuters report is this:
And another Reuters article from June 5 has this to say about the standalone May revenue data:
So, oil revenues (both y-o-y and m-o-m) are indeed down sharply. Given the Russian central bank's forecasts (and the actual prices at which Russian oil is selling), it probably isn't outlandish to expect Russia to miss its revenue expectations by a wide margin, so it doesn't hurt to wait and watch what happens.
I don't like the use of $ figures, they are pointless.
Russian oil price in roubles falls below state budgeted level in May
The trend is continuing from the start of the year: in January - March, the Urals rouble price was 25% below the target. It almost reached the target level in April, when it averaged 4,770 roubles per barrel.
With today's exchange rate, whatever Google says it is right now, 4788 rub is $54.77. 4107 rub is $46.98. So, it's just a difference of $9-10.
Neutral source. Less propaganda, more substance.
Western sources are garbage when it comes to Russia and China. Not a single mention of the actual price in rubles or the exchange rate for a reader to get an accurate picture in the Reuters article. Western media is not free. Use neutral sources only. It's the same with defence deals. They confuse themselves, they confuse others and the end result is just garbage.
So to get to 26T rubles, they need to sell the Ural grade at not $70, not $55, but 4788 rubles and 4788 rubles only. A final figure can only be obtained using the average ruble price generated next year.
And because the Russians are not dependent on imports, they can manage the weakness to gain an advantage elsewhere, like controlling the deficit.
The Russians have been making very modest state budget predictions since 2015, as far as I can remember, 'cause that's when the sanctions impact was felt. 4788 rub is quite modest for them at this time. And they expect prices to rise due to recovery in China and the OPEC cutting production. Next month will see a massive production cut in Saudiland.
It is true that Russia isn't collapsing financially. However, its oil and gas revenues are drastically down. And that has dragged its total revenues down a lot as well, which was more or less my original point.
This is the budget report from the Russian Ministry of Finance for the period covering January-May 2023:
And here are the relevant numbers:
The last part about the trajectory notwithstanding, a 50% reduction in oil and gas revenue is drastic.
The brief on the execution of the federal budget provides a month-by-month breakdown of revenues:
(note: it provides the cumulative data for each month starting from the calendar year)
For comparison, between January-May 2022 oil and gas revenues amounted to 5,658.1 billion roubles.
On a side note, for the deficit figures, Russia has accumulated a deficit of 3,411 billion roubles over January-May 2023. Again, for comparison between the same period in 2022 Russia had a surplus of 1,589 billion roubles.
This is the budget report from the Russian Ministry of Finance for the period covering January-May 2023:
And here are the relevant numbers:
Translation: Oil and gas revenues amounted to 2,853 billion rubles and decreased by 50% YoY, which was due to a high base year-on-year comparison, lower Urals oil price quotations, and lower natural gas export volumes. The monthly dynamics of oil and gas revenues gradually reached a stable trajectory corresponding to their baseline level (8 trillion rubles per year).
The last part about the trajectory notwithstanding, a 50% reduction in oil and gas revenue is drastic.
The brief on the execution of the federal budget provides a month-by-month breakdown of revenues:
(note: it provides the cumulative data for each month starting from the calendar year)
For comparison, between January-May 2022 oil and gas revenues amounted to 5,658.1 billion roubles.
On a side note, for the deficit figures, Russia has accumulated a deficit of 3,411 billion roubles over January-May 2023. Again, for comparison between the same period in 2022 Russia had a surplus of 1,589 billion roubles.
The federal take from the oil and gas revenues is actually down 64%, because some of those revenues were government subsidies.It is true that Russia isn't collapsing financially. However, its oil and gas revenues are drastically down. And that has dragged its total revenues down a lot as well, which was more or less my original point.
This is the budget report from the Russian Ministry of Finance for the period covering January-May 2023:
And here are the relevant numbers:
Translation: Oil and gas revenues amounted to 2,853 billion rubles and decreased by 50% YoY, which was due to a high base year-on-year comparison, lower Urals oil price quotations, and lower natural gas export volumes. The monthly dynamics of oil and gas revenues gradually reached a stable trajectory corresponding to their baseline level (8 trillion rubles per year).
The last part about the trajectory notwithstanding, a 50% reduction in oil and gas revenue is drastic.
The brief on the execution of the federal budget provides a month-by-month breakdown of revenues:
(note: it provides the cumulative data for each month starting from the calendar year)
For comparison, between January-May 2022 oil and gas revenues amounted to 5,658.1 billion roubles.
On a side note, for the deficit figures, Russia has accumulated a deficit of 3,411 billion roubles over January-May 2023. Again, for comparison between the same period in 2022 Russia had a surplus of 1,589 billion roubles.
Russia's oil and gas budget revenue drops sharply in April
Russia's federal budget revenues from oil and gas, the lifeblood of its economy, fell 64% in April from the year-earlier period and declined by 5.9% from March, the finance ministry said on Thursday, as a result of higher subsidies to oil refineries.
It is true that Russia isn't collapsing financially. However, its oil and gas revenues are drastically down. And that has dragged its total revenues down a lot as well, which was more or less my original point.
This is the budget report from the Russian Ministry of Finance for the period covering January-May 2023:
And here are the relevant numbers:
Translation: Oil and gas revenues amounted to 2,853 billion rubles and decreased by 50% YoY, which was due to a high base year-on-year comparison, lower Urals oil price quotations, and lower natural gas export volumes. The monthly dynamics of oil and gas revenues gradually reached a stable trajectory corresponding to their baseline level (8 trillion rubles per year).
The last part about the trajectory notwithstanding, a 50% reduction in oil and gas revenue is drastic.
The brief on the execution of the federal budget provides a month-by-month breakdown of revenues:
(note: it provides the cumulative data for each month starting from the calendar year)
For comparison, between January-May 2022 oil and gas revenues amounted to 5,658.1 billion roubles.
On a side note, for the deficit figures, Russia has accumulated a deficit of 3,411 billion roubles over January-May 2023. Again, for comparison between the same period in 2022 Russia had a surplus of 1,589 billion roubles.
The reduction, which is only for a month or two instead of the whole year, is a drop down from a very high base achieved.
Based on the exchange rate in 2021.
Russia's oil and gas revenue windfall
Russia's sales of oil and natural gas far exceeded initial forecasts for 2021 as a result of skyrocketing prices, accounting for 36% of the country's total budget.
That totals to $240.7 for 2021.
In 2022, they sold $383B worth. And in 2020, it was $219B.
If we assume the 50% drop maintains for the whole year, then Russia will only make $191.5B. Of course, more realistically, they could end up making $240B again. And this also assumes they continue selling enough amounts of gas and oil products. Otoh, with an expected increase in global prices and their current lot of customers like China and Turkey, they should be able to sell enough to make the same as 2021.
Western sources are sure to sell it as a victory though, even if the Russians sell more than what they did in 2021, 'cause it's impossible to breach the $383B mark again without a significant rise in prices. But right now analysts are predicting $100 oil and gas shortfalls in the EU, so prices are moving up.
India is doubling down on crude imports, it will be 2.3 mbpd this month, with state refineries planning on buying more. There's also a plan to sell Russian oil products to Europe via India. So we are yet to see how the Russians manage their current problem before worrying about any rise in global prices.
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin 'on board' crashed Russian plane
The head of the Russian private military company was on the passenger list of 10 people who died.
www.bbc.com
Putin is the greatest sigma male of 21st century.......even Trump is no match for him.
Every wannabe sigma male need to learn from Put-in on how to deal with your enemies.
Every wannabe sigma male need to learn from Put-in on how to deal with your enemies.
You are Pathetic beta male like Prigozhin & like him you should enjoy your Hentai Porn
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While Real C-gma male Conquer the world
