Iran war - part 3
My latest blog post on the war. In particular the possible consequences for India, given the likely rise in oil & gas prices.
I believe the closure of the Bab El-Mandeb strait by the Houthis is an opportunity for India.
Notwithstanding the Houthis hitting 2 oil tankers last week, that tried to get past the blockade, their overall record against ships, using drones
and missiles is very bad. I believe the Indian Navy should escort tankers across the strait, to fill crude at Yanbu, in Saudi.
It will have several benefits.
The Saudis, anxious to maintain oil revenues, will have a customer. It gives them a de-facto ally in the fight against the Houthis.
This is ideally what Pak should be doing, under their mutual defence treaty. If we do it instead, it will make them ask questions of Pak.
We are more comfortable with energy security, particularly if Saudi transfers oil intended for other customers, too chicken to take delivery.
The US will be happy that we are that one country actually working with US to keep the strait open. This is just the kind of optics Trump likes.
Huge visibility for the IN if they pull it off.
In terms of feasibility I think IN is well equipped to deal with a missile or drones. The concern will be mines and the willingness of merchant ship crews to sail. My sense is, it will happen with a tacit understanding with the Houthis & Iran. They can claim they have let a friendly country though (to avoid the embarrassment of seeing their missiles/drones fail to hit anything).
One area I think the govt is ignoring is the continued exports of petroleum products (mostly Reliance). They are exporting refined products, which is the equivalent in crude oil, of what our oil & gas shortfall is likely to be.
My latest blog post on the war. In particular the possible consequences for India, given the likely rise in oil & gas prices.
I believe the closure of the Bab El-Mandeb strait by the Houthis is an opportunity for India.
Notwithstanding the Houthis hitting 2 oil tankers last week, that tried to get past the blockade, their overall record against ships, using drones
and missiles is very bad. I believe the Indian Navy should escort tankers across the strait, to fill crude at Yanbu, in Saudi.
It will have several benefits.
The Saudis, anxious to maintain oil revenues, will have a customer. It gives them a de-facto ally in the fight against the Houthis.
This is ideally what Pak should be doing, under their mutual defence treaty. If we do it instead, it will make them ask questions of Pak.
We are more comfortable with energy security, particularly if Saudi transfers oil intended for other customers, too chicken to take delivery.
The US will be happy that we are that one country actually working with US to keep the strait open. This is just the kind of optics Trump likes.
Huge visibility for the IN if they pull it off.
In terms of feasibility I think IN is well equipped to deal with a missile or drones. The concern will be mines and the willingness of merchant ship crews to sail. My sense is, it will happen with a tacit understanding with the Houthis & Iran. They can claim they have let a friendly country though (to avoid the embarrassment of seeing their missiles/drones fail to hit anything).
One area I think the govt is ignoring is the continued exports of petroleum products (mostly Reliance). They are exporting refined products, which is the equivalent in crude oil, of what our oil & gas shortfall is likely to be.
