Ukraine - Russia Flare Up

Picdelamirand-oil

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Update on operations in Ukraine 28 May 2022 - The Battle of Donbass 2

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The North Donbass front is attracting more attention than ever and is shaping up to be a decisive battle that will absorb efforts in the coming weeks, perhaps until the end of the summer if both sides have the resources to sustain such intense fighting until then.
It should be remembered that this front is divided into two separate but mutually influencing operational sectors. In the west, there is the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk (SK) pair and in the east the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk (SL) pair, the four major target cities of the Russian forces at the top of two major north-south urban axes that join the two separatist republics. Together, the two sectors represent a rectangle 50 km deep and 100 km wide, the size of half a French department. It is divided in the middle by the Siversk River, which joins the city of the same name to the road junction of Bakhmut from north to south. Bakhmut commands SL either directly via the T1302 road or indirectly and more difficultly via Siversk.

Facing the Sloviansk sector, the Russian forces were now smaller after having been the main sector. All the effort of the 201st DM, helped in the East by the 90th DB consisted in threatening to encircle the city of Lyman and to force the 95th air assault brigade to withdraw towards Sloviansk. It is also possible that this withdrawal will also force the 57th Motorised Brigade to withdraw behind the Donets River. At this stage, these two brigades and the 81st Air Assault Brigade in front of Yzium can hold the heights north of Sloviansk fairly well. The situation is much more critical for the Ukrainians on the eastern side.

Russian forces and the 2nd Corps of the Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) pressed the SL sector from all sides. In the north, between Ozerne and Lysychansk, three Ukrainian brigades - 79th Air Assault, 128th Mountain and 58th Motorised - held the high ground for 40km against the 90th Armoured Division (AD) and four or five Russian brigades (8-10 battle groups, BGs) beyond the Donets River. The city of Severodonetsk itself was approached along three-quarters of its periphery by the 127th Motorised Infantry Division (MD), reinforced by an LNR regiment and the Chechen grouping, i.e. 5 to 8 BGs facing two National Guard brigades, a territorial brigade and the Slavic regiment. Again, the Ukrainians held, despite the firepower of at least one Russian artillery brigade, in addition to the BGs' organic artillery

The largest Russian force grouping - 7th Air Assault Division, Baltic and Pacific Marine Infantry Brigades, Wagner Group and 150th DM, i.e. a dozen battle groups (BGs) - attacked from Popasna in all directions. To the south, it threatened to encircle the 30th Ukrainian Mechanised Brigade and would probably force it to withdraw. To the north, towards SL, and in conjunction with the westward thrust of the LNR forces and the Russian 57th Brigade, it threatened to encircle the 17th Armoured Brigade in the Hirske-Toshkivka area. To the west, he approached Soledar, a few kilometres from Bakhmut, on SL's main supply route. The capture of Soledar, and then of Siversk from Ozerne in the north, would be enough to cut off Severodonetsk-Lysychansk from all communication. This would leave the nine Ukrainian brigades and regiments, about 1/6th of the Ukrainian ground task force, trapped.

This prospect presents the Ukrainian forces with several difficult options.

The first would be to counter-attack in order to clear the area, and thus logically try to retake Popasna. This would require a manoeuvre mass of several brigades. For the moment, only the 4th armoured brigade seems to be available in the Kramatorsk area, but it would be possible to transfer the 48th air assault brigade in reserve to Poltava (it is not clear why this has not already been done) and perhaps one or two armoured brigades from the north or southwest.

The problem is, and the Russians have already been confronted with this to a large extent, that it is difficult to manoeuvre classically in a dense fire zone if you are not visible and spotted. Placed in the current context, the German counter-attack of February 1943 towards Kharkov with two armoured corps would be immediately spotted and hit from the sky from attack aircraft to air-to-ground missiles/rockets from helicopters or drones or precise artillery shells. To manoeuvre, they must now be either mobile, dispersed and camouflaged, or on the contrary, highly protected in small spaces. For having operated 'the old way' between the two, the Russian armoured-mechanised columns were corroded and frozen in the battle of Kiev. In the same way that the Americans in Korea moved from motorised columns to trenches from 1950 to 1951, Russian forces now moved from secure lines and protected rears, advancing under artillery cover, i.e. never more than 20 kilometres from the batteries in a very '1918' style.

If the Ukrainian forces were able to advance on retreating forces in the Kiev region or on curtain forces north of Kharkiv, they came up against the fortified lines in the Kherson region. A visible attack on the Popasna high ground under the envelope of Russian air and artillery strikes may succeed, but it will be a long, difficult and undoubtedly very costly exercise.

The second option is to stay put and defend the positions foot to foot, relying on the resilience of the town and the wear and tear on the Russian forces. This strategy worked well in the north, where the besieged towns of Chernihiv and Soumy were finally cleared after helping to hinder the Russian manoeuvre. It failed in Mariupol, where Ukrainian forces were unable to force the Russians out of a more defensible and controllable southern area than the north. While Mariupol was able to hold large Russian forces for two months and undoubtedly inflict heavy casualties, its fall was the biggest Ukrainian defeat of the war with several full brigades lost. It is therefore an even riskier gamble as Western material aid will inevitably stall after immediate possibilities are exhausted and the formation of new battalions to send into battle, before forming new brigades, is likely to take some time.

The last option, probably the most realistic militarily but also the most difficult politically, would be to abandon Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, now emptied of the vast majority of its inhabitants, and to withdraw all the brigades beyond the Siversk river and rely on a new urban defence line from Sloviansk to Kostiantynivka. This would be an exchange of space, largely empty, for forces and time. However, it would also be a very tricky manoeuvre to organise under Russian pressure, but possible.

Military operations are never linear. Phases of waiting can be suddenly followed by accelerations following sudden and sometimes surprising successes. After some surprising Ukrainian successes, in fact moves that took advantage of Russian weaknesses, the Russians regained the initiative. However, the battle for Donbass is far from over, let alone the military operations of this war, or even this war in the long run. There will be more surprises on both sides.
 

jetray

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In fact europe is importing diesel from India which was refined from russian oil imports. This whole crap where they say they not using russian oil is total crap. As it is a open market , goods are sold & exchanged across the counter. Importers will go by light , heavy or medium crude oil not based on whether it is russian drilled or saudi drilled oil.
hypocrisy of highest order.

 

Innominate

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A reminder to wacky Russian fanboys what the Russian military goal was for March, April and May.

Four months of war with Russia already occupying a huge chunk of Donbas before the war and this is all they can get? Lulz. Very costly war so much so that Russia has no choice but to take out of storage their T-62 tanks! :ROFLMAO:
 
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BMD

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Pleasures in the morning: ZSU toast Russians

Truth is what you dont want to see. No one can make a person see the truth if he decides to keep his eyes shut. Europe is one such example.
You have no idea how ironic that is given your position.

He's a clown. Recently entered politics into a position of power and then went to war with an ex-superpower. All for nothing.
Again with the false narratives. The ex-superpower went to war with him. Some of you guys are like North Korean history teachers, seriously.
 
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BMD

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There is no diplomacy because Russia's demands are entirely unreasonable and Putin won't accept anything short of them being met, you cannot negotiate with that. Any land given in exchange for peace would simply result in a repeat performance in 10 years or so, where more Russians just over a border are supposedly being oppressed (after firing RPGs at authorities) and Russia needs to invade to save them from multi-ethnic Nazis. Russia's track record demonstrates this.

It ends here, either they lose, or they lose so many men and so much GDP winning that they still lose. Either way there is not going to be a repeat performance because the message has been received and Europe is going back to a Cold War military spending stance, and Russia will remain sanctioned until after Putin is dead, even assuming he's currently in good health.
 

BMD

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There's a nice river to push them into there at Kherson. They can shoot them whilst they're paddling back across it.

View attachment 23838

A reminder to wacky Russian fanboys what the Russian military goal was for March, April and May.

Four months of war with Russia already occupying a huge chunk of Donbas before the war and this is all they can get? Lulz. Very costly war so much so that Russia has no choice but to take out of storage their T-62 tanks! :ROFLMAO:
Oh it was worse than that, in early March it was all of Ukraine, probably with future undisclosed plans for Moldova if we're being honest.
 
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lcafanboy

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Dec 22, 2017
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hitting US embassy in Kyiv. Kyiv is still a legit target for Russia and they can always claim it was a mistake and that their missiles aren't as accurate like superior US missiles. However I picture Russia using cruise missiles and not BM for hitting the embassy.
Yeah...
They too can use Brahmos missile and claim it was fired mistakenly during a routine training and unfortunately hit US embassy and later issue an apology like we did to pakhanistan.... 😂😂🤣🤣😅😅
 

screambowl

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Dec 19, 2017
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And who in the first place brought Europe in confrontation with Russia?

Mr. Biden. Let idiots realize that Trump has been actually bringing peace to world by reducing all nonsensical wars around the world. Trade war was a way genuine way to fight war than killing people.
A reminder to wacky Russian fanboys what the Russian military goal was for March, April and May.

Four months of war with Russia already occupying a huge chunk of Donbas before the war and this is all they can get? Lulz. Very costly war so much so that Russia has no choice but to take out of storage their T-62 tanks!

And Russians told you what their goal is? And you got played into their deception thinking linearly.