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That doesn't make sense. If there's no way to separate the goods meant for NI and ROI, then that basically gives a back channel for the UK and EU to push goods into each other like the UK is part of the EU. Or the EU will have to put up a customs border between ROI and itself, which basically means kicking out ROI.
Of course there is, labelling. Or, just have a proper free trade deal for goods without checks, which is mostly in the EU's interest anyway.


Basically, you are reversing the customs border protocol. Instead of putting one between GB and NI, you want one done between the EU and ROI. I don't think that's going to work out in terms of the sheer volumes of bureaucracy involved, especially concerning so many countries. Every single country will have to create and pass laws specifically for ROI.

Rather it's the EU that doesn't care about the dynamics between ROI and NI.
I don't want any customs border really, it's only the EU that insists on one.
 
That has nothing to do with the economy. The only way you can piss off Brussels is if you tinker with their prescriptions on the economy.
You think mass immigration has nothing to do with the economy? Thank you and goodnight.

If push comes to shove in the case of the RoI / NI / UK scenario with no prospect of an agreement on customs & with all 3 choosing to respect the GF agreements, I'm guessing RoI will be booted out.
They'll be better off in the long run. They can join a trade deal between the UK, US, Canada, NZ and Aus. We all speak the same language too, so we won't need to kill 90 rain forests per unit writing manuals in 27 different languages.
 
Of course there is, labelling.

The labelling that the govt controls happens at the customs border. That's the very point of a customs border.

Or, just have a proper free trade deal for goods without checks, which is mostly in the EU's interest anyway.

They are obviously not going to do that, or else countries will happily leave the EU, and then things will go back to square one once the realities of the economy of each country that's against EU rules will make its way back into politics.

I don't want any customs border really, it's only the EU that insists on one.

How else will you label goods then? If you're assuming companies will have the power to label goods, then you are surely joking.
 
The labelling that the govt controls happens at the customs border. That's the very point of a customs border.
Not here it doesn't, it's labelled when it's produced.

They are obviously not going to do that, or else countries will happily leave the EU, and then things will go back to square one once the realities of the economy of each country that's against EU rules will make its way back into politics.
Well maybe they should unfuck their rules then, if it's so bad that everyone would leave were it not for the trade. But actually the customs border in the sea was never supposed to happen anyway, it was only there as a back stop if an agreement couldn't be reached, even under the protocol.

How else will you label goods then? If you're assuming companies will have the power to label goods, then you are surely joking.
Why not, trainers are labelled by companies for definite already.

FWIW, I was listening to a parliamentary debate today and the UK feels that the EU broke articles 4 and 10 of the protocol first. Article 4 was about respecting UK sovereignty and Article 10 was about not using the protocol as an expansionist measure. The protocol also mentioning that goods from the UK at risk of going beyond NI, whereas EU protagonists recently started arguing that all goods were at risk, hence breaching articles 4 and 10. The EU was also using the backstop as a leveraging tool to make ridiculous demands within the negotiations regarding the EU being able to enforce regulations on the UK wrt other trade deals and fish in UK waters etc. also in breach of article 4 and 10. So you see, the EU broke the protocol first, hence the UK created a bill giving us powers to withdraw from the protocol if the EU didn't unfuck its ideas before December 31st, thus protecting our right to trade freely within our own sovereign borders.
 
If Democrats win the UK is going to be caught in a tough place. What's the point of Brexit if the UK can't control its borders? The Democrats will force the UK into a customs agreement with the EU where the UK will be worse off than where they started.



A Biden presidency will reduce the UK to a rogue state or a defeated state. If the UK is forced to go back to the EU, Brussels will actually strip the UK of its sovereignty and make it wholly dependent on the institutions of the EU. If it doesn't, they will be blocked by the US at every avenue, forcing them to rely on China (sell everything to them) or slip into economic decay and geopolitical irrelevancy. CANZUK won't happen, it will be targeted hard by the US and EU. The UK will struggle on its own. Signing a trade deal now with Trump will result in the same situation with China, just with the US instead (and with the uncertainty that Biden won't just tear up whatever agreement Trump makes on Jan 21, 2021).

What options does the UK have?

@BMD , @randomradio , @Picdelamirand-oil , @_Anonymous_ @Ankit Kumar ,
 
You think mass immigration has nothing to do with the economy? Thank you and goodnight.
Listen you fool, is the EU letting in all those migrants in humanitarian grounds or as cheap ready labor ? Answer that & you'd have your answer.


They'll be better off in the long run. They can join a trade deal between the UK, US, Canada, NZ and Aus. We all speak the same language too, so we won't need to kill 90 rain forests per unit writing manuals in 27 different languages.
That trade deal between the Anglophone nations could've preceded the EU. In any event it has been in the making for the past 75 years - ever since the end of WW-2. Why didn't it fructify then & if it didn't then what makes you think it'd happen now , you fool ? Just coz you're up shit creek w/o a paddle doesn't mean the world appreciates your desperation or is keen to do something about it.
 
If Democrats win the UK is going to be caught in a tough place. What's the point of Brexit if the UK can't control its borders? The Democrats will force the UK into a customs agreement with the EU where the UK will be worse off than where they started.



A Biden presidency will reduce the UK to a rogue state or a defeated state. If the UK is forced to go back to the EU, Brussels will actually strip the UK of its sovereignty and make it wholly dependent on the institutions of the EU. If it doesn't, they will be blocked by the US at every avenue, forcing them to rely on China (sell everything to them) or slip into economic decay and geopolitical irrelevancy. CANZUK won't happen, it will be targeted hard by the US and EU. The UK will struggle on its own. Signing a trade deal now with Trump will result in the same situation with China, just with the US instead (and with the uncertainty that Biden won't just tear up whatever agreement Trump makes on Jan 21, 2021).

What options does the UK have?

@BMD , @randomradio , @Picdelamirand-oil , @_Anonymous_ @Ankit Kumar ,
I've no clue but I'd be very interested in the yarns @BMD would try to spin out here. Half the time he does it here, he thinks he's at O'Hara's with most of his compatriots hearing him out holding on to every word coming out of his mouth as if it were the Gospel.

What I do know is their collective goose is cooked particularly those white collar thugs who voted for Brexit purely out of spite rather than thinking it'd do them a world of good Only to now understand the gravity of the situation but can't bring themselves to publicly admit they've goofed up. Pretty much like BMD out here.
 
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Not here it doesn't, it's labelled when it's produced.

And who decides if the label is correct?

Basically what you're saying is the customs border will be moved into the hands of the producers.

You'll just end up creating an underground market.
 
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If Democrats win the UK is going to be caught in a tough place. What's the point of Brexit if the UK can't control its borders? The Democrats will force the UK into a customs agreement with the EU where the UK will be worse off than where they started.



A Biden presidency will reduce the UK to a rogue state or a defeated state. If the UK is forced to go back to the EU, Brussels will actually strip the UK of its sovereignty and make it wholly dependent on the institutions of the EU. If it doesn't, they will be blocked by the US at every avenue, forcing them to rely on China (sell everything to them) or slip into economic decay and geopolitical irrelevancy. CANZUK won't happen, it will be targeted hard by the US and EU. The UK will struggle on its own. Signing a trade deal now with Trump will result in the same situation with China, just with the US instead (and with the uncertainty that Biden won't just tear up whatever agreement Trump makes on Jan 21, 2021).

What options does the UK have?

@BMD , @randomradio , @Picdelamirand-oil , @_Anonymous_ @Ankit Kumar ,

A customs border between NI and ROI will break the GFA, so it's not possible.

A customs border between ROI and EU will take years and years to finish, and will definitely strain relations of all concerned, and it will seriously affect the relations between the UK and ROI.

A customs border between GB and NI, called the NI protocol, is the most feasible since it requires only the UK to change its own internal laws.

So the only realistic solution is the NI protocol.
 
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A customs border between NI and ROI will break the GFA, so it's not possible.

A customs border between ROI and EU will take years and years to finish, and will definitely strain relations of all concerned, and it will seriously affect the relations between the UK and ROI.

A customs border between GB and NI, called the NI protocol, is the most feasible since it requires only the UK to change its own internal laws.

So the only realistic solution is the NI protocol.

That leaves NI in a weird state, where it has open borders with RoI and EU but not with its parent country. Additionally it will essentially force NI to adopt EU economic regulations and act as a backdoor for EU migrants into the UK.. is that even palatable to the UK? Whoever erects trade barriers between RI and the rest of the UK will commit political suicide.
 
That leaves NI in a weird state, where it has open borders with RoI and EU but not with its parent country. Additionally it will essentially force NI to adopt EU economic regulations and act as a backdoor for EU migrants into the UK.. is that even palatable to the UK? Whoever erects trade barriers between RI and the rest of the UK will commit political suicide.
There's no way such a cockeyed suggestion is going to be implemented.
 
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There's no way such a cockeyed suggestion is going to be implemented.

So then the only solution would be no customs border in Irish Sea, hard border between NI and RoI and any chance of normal relationship with their neighbors out the window for years. No FTA with the US either, because even if Trump wins in 2020 the Democrats will likely still control the House and will never approve a US-UK trade deal (the UK violating the GFA agreement would be enough, spiting Brexiteers & Trump would be icing on top).

In this sceneario I guess they could market themselves as some lionhearted Britain steering their own ship...but I don't think anyone is under any illusion how poorly that will play out for them. At best they will become a Chinese client state, at worst they will devolve into a rogue state.
 
That leaves NI in a weird state, where it has open borders with RoI and EU but not with its parent country. Additionally it will essentially force NI to adopt EU economic regulations and act as a backdoor for EU migrants into the UK.. is that even palatable to the UK? Whoever erects trade barriers between RI and the rest of the UK will commit political suicide.

Not exactly like that. It's a bit cumbersome for companies in the UK when dealing with NI and vice versa, but it is an open border. So if goods from GB go to NI, EU taxes have to be paid. If the goods stay in the NI, then the company gets a tax refund, and if the goods move to the EU, then nothing happens. Basically NI has to follow EU trade rules if it has to continue dealing with ROI as they are currently. The only advantage is NI benefits from trade deals the UK signs with others. So NI can trade with other countries just like GB.

When it comes to immigration, the full text is not out yet, so it's not completely clear. But I think UK's anti-immigration policy extends to NI also.

I wouldn't worry about immigration though. Once the realities of low-cost labour hit home, the Brits will regret their decision when they see that there are no employees in critical sectors. They will then begin accepting immigrants from anywhere they can, which includes South Asia.
 
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Not exactly like that. It's a bit cumbersome for companies in the UK when dealing with NI and vice versa, but it is an open border. So if goods from GB go to NI, EU taxes have to be paid. If the goods stay in the NI, then the company gets a tax refund, and if the goods move to the EU, then nothing happens. Basically NI has to follow EU trade rules if it has to continue dealing with ROI as they are currently. The only advantage is NI benefits from trade deals the UK signs with others. So NI can trade with other countries just like GB.

When it comes to immigration, the full text is not out yet, so it's not completely clear. But I think UK's anti-immigration policy extends to NI also.

I wouldn't worry about immigration though. Once the realities of low-cost labour hit home, the Brits will regret their decision when they see that there are no employees in critical sectors. They will then begin accepting immigrants from anywhere they can, which includes South Asia.

In this scenario the EU basically controls trade between NI and the UK. If the UK signs a FTA with the US and begins importing goods not approved by the EU, NI will be cut out of the FTA for those products right? The bureaucracy alone would be a huge detriment to trading with NI, slowing the flow and ease of trade. Also, this would essentially entrench the EU in the UK's internal affairs forever, let alone that the the EU controls the tax rate and how efficient the tax return mechanism would be in this scenario.

As for immigration, how do you stop EU refugees in Ireland from simply walking into NI and claiming asylum in the UK?

It still seems too politically unpalatable to allow a foreign entity to erect barriers for domestic trade, especially a bitter foreign entity that seeks to undermine you.
 
In this scenario the EU basically controls trade between NI and the UK. If the UK signs a FTA with the US and begins importing goods not approved by the EU, NI will be cut out of the FTA for those products right? The bureaucracy alone would be a huge detriment to trading with NI, slowing the flow and ease of trade. Also, this would essentially entrench the EU in the UK's internal affairs forever, let alone that the the EU controls the tax rate and how efficient the tax return mechanism would be in this scenario.

Not at all. EU taxes for the goods coming from the US will be paid at the customs border and the tax will be returned if the goods stay in NI. Basically goods from any country entering NI will be taxed in NI, the same way it's done for goods from outside Europe, at EU rates. Basically, when it comes to goods trade, NI is in the EU, with the only exception being goods from UK and other countries will see the importer's taxes returned if the rates are lower.

Also, it's not forever. One of the advantages of the protocol is it's reviewed in the UK every 4 years.

As for immigration, how do you stop EU refugees in Ireland from simply walking into NI and claiming asylum in the UK?

The main goal is to stop economic migrants, not asylum seekers.

No clue how asylum seekers will be dealt with.

It still seems too politically unpalatable to allow a foreign entity to erect barriers for domestic trade, especially a bitter foreign entity that seeks to undermine you.

Trade between GB and NI won't be affected though. Companies will only have to pay extra in the beginning and claim for a refund later on. Banking laws may be modified a little so NI companies are allowed to take extra capital for a few years or so, just my speculation.
 
EU taxes for the goods coming from the US will be paid at the customs border and the tax will be returned if the goods stay in NI. Basically goods from any country entering NI will be taxed in NI,

Trade between GB and NI won't be affected though. Companies will only have to pay extra in the beginning and claim for a refund later on. Banking laws may be modified a little so NI companies are allowed to take extra capital for a few years or so, just my speculation.

I'm skeptical that this mechanism will be implemented in good faith by the EU. Even if the rates are fair, I'm doubtful that it will be handled efficiently. Simply making domestic trade within the UK more expensive and difficult is a win for the EU. Even if they say otherwise, it is in the EU's interest for the UK to fail - to make them an example for other Euroskeptic EU members. I suspect any tax refunds will be made as complicated and painful for UK companies as possible.

The ultimate goal of the EU would be United Ireland, and perhaps an independent EU member Scotland.

The main goal is to stop economic migrants, not asylum seekers.

This is fair, cheap Eastern European laborers will slowly be phased out of the UK. I do think we will eventually see a "load shedding" of refugees from the EU into the UK through Ireland, but that will be a concern for another day.
 
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And who decides if the label is correct?

Basically what you're saying is the customs border will be moved into the hands of the producers.

You'll just end up creating an underground market.
Trust is required, that's all.
 
Listen you fool, is the EU letting in all those migrants in humanitarian grounds or as cheap ready labor ? Answer that & you'd have your answer.



That trade deal between the Anglophone nations could've preceded the EU. In any event it has been in the making for the past 75 years - ever since the end of WW-2. Why didn't it fructify then & if it didn't then what makes you think it'd happen now , you fool ? Just coz you're up shit creek w/o a paddle doesn't mean the world appreciates your desperation or is keen to do something about it.
It has an economic impact either way.

Different times. Most of the world wasn't for trading blocs back then.
A customs border between NI and ROI will break the GFA, so it's not possible.

A customs border between ROI and EU will take years and years to finish, and will definitely strain relations of all concerned, and it will seriously affect the relations between the UK and ROI.

A customs border between GB and NI, called the NI protocol, is the most feasible since it requires only the UK to change its own internal laws.

So the only realistic solution is the NI protocol.
Garbage. You're asking a sovereign nation to allow a customs border to be put in the middle of it by a foreign power. The EU is only a bloc, so if there has to be customs border, that's where it goes. The sensible option is no customs border.
 
That leaves NI in a weird state, where it has open borders with RoI and EU but not with its parent country. Additionally it will essentially force NI to adopt EU economic regulations and act as a backdoor for EU migrants into the UK.. is that even palatable to the UK? Whoever erects trade barriers between RI and the rest of the UK will commit political suicide.
That is pretty much against articles 4 and 10 of the protocol, since it doesn't respect the UK's sovereignty and is expansionist on behalf of the EU.
In this scenario the EU basically controls trade between NI and the UK. If the UK signs a FTA with the US and begins importing goods not approved by the EU, NI will be cut out of the FTA for those products right? The bureaucracy alone would be a huge detriment to trading with NI, slowing the flow and ease of trade. Also, this would essentially entrench the EU in the UK's internal affairs forever, let alone that the the EU controls the tax rate and how efficient the tax return mechanism would be in this scenario.

As for immigration, how do you stop EU refugees in Ireland from simply walking into NI and claiming asylum in the UK?

It still seems too politically unpalatable to allow a foreign entity to erect barriers for domestic trade, especially a bitter foreign entity that seeks to undermine you.
There doesn't need to be any customs border if commonsense prevails, but then we are talking about the EU.
If Democrats win the UK is going to be caught in a tough place. What's the point of Brexit if the UK can't control its borders? The Democrats will force the UK into a customs agreement with the EU where the UK will be worse off than where they started.



A Biden presidency will reduce the UK to a rogue state or a defeated state. If the UK is forced to go back to the EU, Brussels will actually strip the UK of its sovereignty and make it wholly dependent on the institutions of the EU. If it doesn't, they will be blocked by the US at every avenue, forcing them to rely on China (sell everything to them) or slip into economic decay and geopolitical irrelevancy. CANZUK won't happen, it will be targeted hard by the US and EU. The UK will struggle on its own. Signing a trade deal now with Trump will result in the same situation with China, just with the US instead (and with the uncertainty that Biden won't just tear up whatever agreement Trump makes on Jan 21, 2021).

What options does the UK have?

@BMD , @randomradio , @Picdelamirand-oil , @_Anonymous_ @Ankit Kumar ,
We can wait out the democrats and we have our own lobbies in the US too. However, the UK is not going to implement a hard border there regardless, but the EU could force ROI to, in which case, we didn't break the GFA.
 
I'm skeptical that this mechanism will be implemented in good faith by the EU. Even if the rates are fair, I'm doubtful that it will be handled efficiently. Simply making domestic trade within the UK more expensive and difficult is a win for the EU. Even if they say otherwise, it is in the EU's interest for the UK to fail - to make them an example for other Euroskeptic EU members. I suspect any tax refunds will be made as complicated and painful for UK companies as possible.

The ultimate goal of the EU would be United Ireland, and perhaps an independent EU member Scotland.

What I pointed out is what they have planned. How everything pans out, that's up in the air. No point speculating efficiencies when we haven't even seen the draft proposal.

If we go by the British view that migrants have been bad for the country, then NI wins in every way. They get to keep trading with the EU and GB with no tariffs, gain the power to control economic migrants through UK laws, and can benefit from any FTAs UK signs with any other country. And in exchange all they have to do is pay a very, very tiny cost with the customs border with GB.

And if NI decide to become independent, then it works against them since they lose preferential access to GB, which is extremely bad for them, and can no longer benefit from FTAs with other countries through the UK. There are no benefits to NI leaving the UK as long as GFA is respected.

The only main drawback that NI has with Brexit is the reduced access to EU migrant labour. But I'm pretty sure that with the porous border between ROI and NI, a lot of EU migrants will get jobs with under-the-table wages.

This is fair, cheap Eastern European laborers will slowly be phased out of the UK. I do think we will eventually see a "load shedding" of refugees from the EU into the UK through Ireland, but that will be a concern for another day.

I think Ireland and UK will work together to deal with the refugee situation. Ireland only plans to absorb a few thousand over many years, so both countries are roughly on the same page. Neither want refugees in any significant numbers.

.

 
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