I'd put it down to intense lobbying by the 3 services for resources over the years.
The IAF has doggedly opposed the expansion of the IAC prog (and by extension naval air arm) which it sees as intruding onto its (AF) turf.
Well then it's for the MoD to come down hard on the bickering parties. For that you need a Long Term Perspective Plan . For which even if adherence isn't cent percent for whatever reasons your aim would be to reach as close as possible if not in the prescribed year then ASAP.
For that you need specialists in the MoD . Not BA Hons in Eng Lit babooos nor chauthi mein char baar fail dhotis. Result - what we have is ad hocism.
The IAF found an unlikely ally in late-CDS Bipin Rawat who publicly asked the IN to focus on subs vs carriers a couple years ago.
The same Bipin Rawat also advocated piece meal acquisition of the Rafales for the IAF a la MKI which led to a huge showdown in public between himself & ACM Chaudhari. Let's not go there. The entire state of affairs as far as defence procurement goes is sickening.
In my view, this changed the GoIs perspective on the need for IAC-2 and TEDBF.
If that's the case why was the TEDBF announced ? The IN after being rebuffed by the IAF to partner on the AMCA program decided the ADA didn't have the depth to conduct two 5th Gen FA programs & opted for the TEDBF.
IMO the resemblance to the Rafale M could also be deliberate based on IN's inputs. They can always turn around & tell the MoD , ADA lacks the required expertise & instead of setting off on another wild goose chase like the Tejas program , it's better the IN goes in for the total qtys prescribed in the MRCBF tender which now becomes easier as DA is setting up shop here. Seems far fetched ? I doubt it. That's exactly how things are unfolding.
Now imagine if this is the case with a branch of the armed service which has always been a champion of indigenization I shudder to think what happens when real baniya cos like Adani enter the fray.
Despite being down to 29 sqns, the IAF has flatly refused to consider ORCA/TEDBF. A potential partnership would've made the whole prog viable.
I've written about this before. ORCA was IN's & HAL's plan to inveigle the IAF for the TEDBF. The reasons forwarded then was that the qtys for the TEDBF were far too low to justify a standalone project on its own .
HAL was smarting from the very public humiliation DA subjected it too. IAF didn't budge. They were too infatuated with the Rafale at the cost of everything else .
The pvt sector would've latched on to it almost immediately.
The IN scaled back its plans for 57 MRCBF (Rafale-m) only temporarily after GoIs austerity measures post COVID. With 26 + 31, TEDBF is DOA.
It's no coincidence that the TEDBF evolved from a twin-engined mk2 into a virtual Rafale lookalike. They want an off the shelf solution to hedge against risk.
ADAs timeline for 5G carrier based jet didn't align with the INs threat perceptions. They eventually reached a compromise solution which was TEDBF.
Those threat perceptions have changed considerably over the last few years. A 5G jet is now essential. We'll have to see what route they finally take.
Yeah . Good luck getting a 5th Gen when China'd be getting their 6th Gen Naval FA . The IN could've embarked on the 4.5 Gen ++ TEDBF in full earnest & prepared plans for a 6th Gen Naval FA to be kicked off in 2030.
This is the kind of initiative the old IN used to be known for. I don't know what the present leadership in the IN stands for. Kick the IAF on the backfoot. Force the MoD to tie up the IAF with the IN for a joint FA project beginning with the Naval version.
Newspace's Abhimanyu N-CCA of course. Sure, in its present form, it's little more than a one way suicide drone. But there are more ambitious plans in the works. We'll know more soon enough.
Let me know if you see anything coming by 2040. And that includes the Ghatak . The IN version is supposed to follow the IAF version.
to believe anything and everything on the internet.
