Analysis Tracking USA VS China Trade war

US-China tariff war may be a boon for India, say experts

NEW DELHI: With the US and China reducing their engagement in the area of trade, India could seize the opportunity to increase its presence in the two markets, say trade experts.

“Because of their growing disengagement as they slap tariffs on one another, it gives India a platform to engage more with both the countries and increase presence,” said a Delhi-based trade analyst.

This means investment-led trade with China and more strategic engagement with the US in terms of defence, technology and space, among others.

China has already extended the olive branch to India by expressing interest in investing here and addressing the huge trade deficit that India has with it.

“India will become a very important player as the two largest economies of the world deny each other market access,” said another trade expert. Though the consumption profiles of the US and China differ from India, some of their goods could find their way to India, the expert added.

Though experts have found a silver lining in the China-US tariff war, engineering exporters are worried about getting caught in the crossfire.


“Our stakes are quite high in the unfolding global trade tensions between the US and China. We would not like to be caught in the crossfire,” said EEPC India chairman Ravi Sehgal.

Indian engineering exports to the US, the number one destination for these goods, had gone up by over 47% and to China by 76% between April-February 2017-18, according the EEPC India.

Sehgal said rising import tariffs in the wake of US action on steel and aluminium and the complaint filed against India in the WTO with regard to various export promotion schemes would be challenging issues for the exporters.
 
First one to blink will be USA, wait a few months even when china may accumulate greater losses it still will be USA who will blink first even after paying a fraction of cost.

Why? Democracy! Mid terms are around the corner and these tarrifs will hurt export in many congressional districts, infact right at the time of mid terms the actual effect will peak, timing couldn't be worst for Republicans.

Emperor Xi on the other hand can carry on for years without being answerable to anyone. Expect an early resolution, I bet Trump administration if not Trump will be very scared.
 
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First one to blink will be USA, wait a few months even when china may accumulate greater losses it still will be USA who will blink first even after paying a fraction of cost.

Why? Democracy! Mid terms are around the corner and these tarrifs will hurt export in many congressional districts, infact right at the time of mid terms the actual effect will peak, timing couldn't be worst for Republicans.

Emperor Xi on the other hand can carry on for years without being answerable to anyone. Expect an early resolution, I bet Trump administration if not Trump will be very scared.

Chinese economy will slow down and become consumer driven one.

Already their wage structure is comparable to USA and it is not economical to manufacture in China. Chinese are trying to move their industries else where. ASEAN is their main destination, followed by Bangladesh and Pakistan.

China cannot win the trade war. India is at advantage. India should go ahead and shift the gears to implement "make in India".
 
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Chinese economy will slow down and become consumer driven one.

Already their wage structure is comparable to USA and it is not economical to manufacture in China. Chinese are trying to move their industries else where. ASEAN is their main destination, followed by Bangladesh and Pakistan.

China cannot win the trade war. India is at advantage. India should go ahead and shift the gears to implement "make in India".
Wishful thinking.
 
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Plus the moment major companies starts migrating from China to India,

If China imposes 25% duties o US imports, then it's Chinese government making profits from the import and to be honest, Chinese are now almost self reliable in electronics, chemicals and agriculture. The machines, petroleum products and other areas like IT they may continue to remain US's customer.

Wheras India has to begin yet. The migration of Industries from China to India would only then happen when they see some loss there. What is the loss to apple or intel in China? I don't see much loses. The demand of product and supply causes the loss there. And setting up new plants in India would NOT be triggered by any land laws in China but supply and demand factor.

In India the chinese Xiaomi has already set up it's market and it would be tough for apple or any one else to break that. For this India needs it's own manufacturing capability than American.

Very recently China has given B'desh 10 Billion dollars loan to set up an Industrial Park.
 
Wheras India has to begin yet. The migration of Industries from China to India would only then happen when they see some loss there. What is the loss to apple or intel in China? I don't see much loses. The demand of product and supply causes the loss there. And setting up new plants in India would NOT be triggered by any land laws in China but supply and demand factor.

In India the chinese Xiaomi has already set up it's market and it would be tough for apple or any one else to break that. For this India needs it's own manufacturing capability than American.
I was implying about the scenario when US imposes duty on products imported from China. That will make made in China products expensive and India can grab a piece of this segment.

Apple competing with Xiaomi? Really?? What are the average selling prices of these companies? It's like comparing Honda with BMW!!
 
I was implying about the scenario when US imposes duty on products imported from China. That will make made in China products expensive and India can grab a piece of this segment.

Apple competing with Xiaomi? Really?? What are the average selling prices of these companies? It's like comparing Honda with BMW!!
Learn basics of "Most Favoured Nation".

The tariff imposed are not on china specific product but all product under that category, so if chinese products become expensive then our product too becomes expensive. These tariffs will only benefit USA and not us.
 
Learn basics of "Most Favoured Nation".

The tariff imposed are not on china specific product but all product under that category, so if chinese products become expensive then our product too becomes expensive. These tariffs will only benefit USA and not us.

What makes you think India can't get tax exemption from US? Was the tariff on steel and Aluminium uniform for all countries??

This is not US vs India trade war. If US has to give tax exemptions between India and China, then it will be India.

There is noway these manufacturing activities coming back to US. The only manufacturing that's possible to relocate to US is high end German cars.

BTW that "Most Favored Nation" is no static list !!
 
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What makes you think India can't get tax exemption from US? Was the tariff on steel and Aluminium uniform for all countries??

This is not US vs India trade war. If US has to give tax exemptions between India and China, then it will be India.

There is noway these manufacturing activities coming back to US. The only manufacturing that's possible to relocate to US is high end German cars.

BTW that "Most Favored Nation" is no static list !!
*For bold part*

Very simple he is Trump, he is unpredictable. We cannot get into such trade agreement very easily with USA, you can see what happened with TPP & TAFTA agreements. USA also has 20 $billion trade deficit with India and they also want more ease of doing business in India i.e. allow as much USA company as you can to enter India and do business without any problems. We are simply not ready for such radical step as it will have huge impact on political & economical health of our country.

So India will hardly gain anything from this trade war between these two giants, yes, we can definitely lure some of the manufacturing units to be setup in our country but gain is very minimal.
 
China’s president offers US possible trade concessions

BEIJING (AP) — President Xi Jinping promised Tuesday to cut China’s auto tariffs and improve intellectual property protection in possible concessions aimed at defusing a worsening dispute with Washington over trade and technology that investors worry could set back the global economic recovery.

Speaking at a business conference, Xi made no direct mention of his American counterpart, Donald Trump, or the dispute. He promised progress on areas that are U.S. priorities including opening China’s banking industry and boosting imports but didn’t address key irritants for Washington such as a requirement for foreign companies to work through joint ventures that require them to give technology to potential local competitors.

China's president offers US possible trade concessions
 
As expected Republicans are rattled by trade war as mid terms near. If tariffs were implemented a bit back they may have strangled Trump by now. Even when China export almost 4 times more and will end up paying much more than US this is the war US simply can't win.
 
As expected Republicans are rattled by trade war as mid terms near. If tariffs were implemented a bit back they may have strangled Trump by now. Even when China export almost 4 times more and will end up paying much more than US this is the war US simply can't win.

China Will make concessions, It has to. US needs High end and basic manufacturing back, it's money is flowing out and they will lose one way or another. Trump is the fall guy. No one in US, from now on will make rules, so that all manufacturing leaves its shores. It is dumb to make manufacturing leave your shores.

also interesting watch : The Secret To Germany’s Powerful Economy
"Mr. Blair, we still make things"
 
As expected Republicans are rattled by trade war as mid terms near. If tariffs were implemented a bit back they may have strangled Trump by now. Even when China export almost 4 times more and will end up paying much more than US this is the war US simply can't win.
Well don't look now, because it is winning based on the movements of the various stock exchanges YTD.

Dow Jones - Up ~2%
FTSE - Up ~4%
DAX - Down ~5%
CAC - Down ~5%
SHCOMP - Down ~15%
 
China July official services PMI eases to 54.0

First round of tariffs have struck hard already. that's like 7% of the possible tariffs on China. The end goal here is a housing property bubble burst along with a credit burst. A Trump maxed trade war would hit China like a mule kick all while they're to de-leverage. Watch their yuan for signs of crack in the economy. Inflation is also going to hurt because of the trade war and if they don't raise interests rates, which they can't since the economy is fighting a trade war.

This is the only time I've seen bipartisanship in the USA in a long while. Democrats and Republicans are all committed to this.

Anyways, we're in for some interesting times soon enough.
 
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Well don't look now, because it is winning based on the movements of the various stock exchanges YTD.

Dow Jones - Up ~2%
FTSE - Up ~4%
DAX - Down ~5%
CAC - Down ~5%
SHCOMP - Down ~15%

23367_20180730114452.gif





23358_20180731112112.gif
 
Try showing a period of more than 1 week. Oh look, FTSE 100 is already up to 7757 this morning.

f7JqbWi.png
 
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