The RCEP has just been signed & comes into effect. I wonder how does what mentioned above square off against the RCEP.
More agreements incoming :
US, India to strengthen relations through quad consultations with Japan & Australia - Republic WorldThe US & India held bilateral 2+2 inter-sessional meeting on Friday and agreed to further strengthen consultation through US-India-Australia-Japan Quad talks.www.republicworld.com
If things go as per previous history, we might see some formal & structured agency (or agencies) formation within 5 years(right from next scheduled meeting till next 5 years), that's however a enthusiastic view point. Midway suggestion looks at 10-12 years to achieve a cohesive front and last view point, which is negative most, it might continue in current state for very long(short of discontinuetion).
The countries who might become the initial lot members are as mentioned below.
1. India, US, Japan & Australia,
2. France, UAE, Singapore, South Korea
3. Indonesia, Vietnam, U.K, Phillipines, Newzealand.
Rest might come around after observing how the new organization goes ahead internationally.
Off course this is my personal opinion based on past observation, it can go north or south. Thank you.
Remember when Ashton Carter was the US Secretary of Defence & Manohar Parikar was our RM. There was a proposal pushed by Carter for joint collaboration on BMD missiles, that went nowhere because we had our own BMD program. There was also meetings with the NATO where Carter pushed for India's inclusion in the non-NATO allies nation list, but Pakistan is already there and India didn't want it. Carter even pushed for a different title for India, which met resistance from the other NATO nations.QUAD meeting in NATO, that's quite a heck of signalling and to show to what end this could/will go forward in near future.
@Gautam I was thinking of another possibility, what happens if NATO is globalised with significant changes in its role, charter and structure? Logically, based on past trends it will most certainly include QUAD partners, even if it is too early to say such a possibility with a certain degree of certainty. Thank you.
Few corrections on the timeline, BMD collaboration was offered much before NDA 2 came to power and subsequently rejected as per reporting (some say as early as NDA 1). Offer had came from not only US but NATO as well, there are some statements on record as well but difficult to mining. There are some information, not so much in public domain, like India's investment, upwards of 100 millions, in US Israeli defence ventures including Arrow missile defence system. However DRDO was of the view that we are within grasp of understanding & launching the first model within 2-3 years on its own, hence reluctance to join collaborative efforts. India was even offered the partnership for peace program as well with NATO, and that I am talking about at least 15 years back timeline. Thank you.Remember when Ashton Carter was the US Secretary of Defence & Manohar Parikar was our RM. There was a proposal pushed by Carter for joint collaboration on BMD missiles, that went nowhere because we had our own BMD program. There was also meetings with the NATO where Carter pushed for India's inclusion in the non-NATO allies nation list, but Pakistan is already there and India didn't want it. Carter even pushed for a different title for India, which met resistance from the other NATO nations.
The point is the Americans have been pushing for Globalisation of the NATO, much to the dis-comfort of the European, for a while. It's unlikely that after Carter the Americans just gave up on that idea. With China's recent "wolf warrior" diplomacy with the Europeans, their resistance to India's inclusion have reduced substantially. Also part of the reason is India holding her own on the LAC against the Chinese. Indian resistance to NATO or any other alliance has also reduced over the years. This is ideal time for the Americans to push of the idea again. Immediate gains are symbolic, but if it sticks the benefits are immense.
Remember of all the nations in the QUAD, Indian is the only on without a formal alliance. It benefits us greatly in this situation. Also from their POV, of all the recent applicants to the NATO, India is by far the most powerful one. I don't know if its an idea whose time has come. But it is most certainly an idea that is gaining ground in many capitals in the recent years. Just my two cents.