Saudi Arabia signs mutual defence pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan

[STEPHEN COHEN]

US has got Saudis by their B***S

If Pakistan tries to give Nukes and Missiles to Saudis then all hell will break loose

So what do Saudis really get out of this deal in Practical terms

Pakistani beggars just want their loans to be written off

So they are Now dancing before the Saudis

 

[babablacksheep]

US has got Saudis by their B***S

If Pakistan tries to give Nukes and Missiles to Saudis then all hell will break loose

So what do Saudis really get out of this deal in Practical terms

Pakistani beggars just want their loans to be written off

So they are Now dancing before the Saudis

1, Last ditch insurance, in case US ditches them in future

2, if iran threatens nukes in future, and US does not provide nuclear umbrella than no matter what hell US will let loose having Pakistani nuke umbrella is still better.

 

[Speedster1]

More importantly ..

1. what implications does it have for our new doctrine of targeting terror sponsors vis a vis op sindoor. Also need to see if the pact involves invocation during defensive position or also put onus in an offensive by either of them.

2. So now Pakistan have formalises it's nuclear security cover to saudi, probably irking israel, USA to an extent. Saudi cash flow will see a spike but as I said above, more depends on type of investment and utilisation. Otherwise CPEC was a 50billion dollar project. Can also be seen as saudi hedging against USA to pivot towards Chinese backed initiative? But if that's the case then why would China allow those funds to flow to western defense establishment and not Chinese. Is this US backed? Providing saudi with needed formal security cover to deter a mis-calculation?
Ofcourse, the third one with no role of China-USA in this, which opens another point of contention.

3. Any attempt to use those funds to buy non Chinese systems will irk beijing too. And western nations will be cautious before selling anything advanced or game changing due to Chinese presence and it's not so hidden attempts at stealing those tech. They haven't provided any path breaking tech to India due to russian concern despite india having grown out from Russian influence and control over tech..

4. Is a saudi funded indigenous R&D on cards by Pakistan? A formal collaboration rather than informal one going till date.

5. First bangladesh opened its soil for US-China cold war and is playing a rather familiar but dangerous game.
Nepal also tried to. both got a reality check and probably this is just a minor teaser of getting caught in superpower rivalry.
India & Pakistan are also in it with US& China having their influence in both nations.

While India has stayed out of it and in recent years trying to build self-reliance, eroding the presence of influence present.. ( long discussion in itself)

Pakistan seems to have a opposite approach from India yet again. Instead of weening off from foreign dependence and influence, they are likely inviting more of it. The kind that could be fatal. Given the nature of Pakistan as a state and foreign presence there.. it's interesting to see how will Munir play this out. Although they do have experience in double games with US post 2001.

What acc to you guys is approach India can take that doesn't call for showing meek behaviour and colonial mindset. Continue as it is? Increase co-operation with saudi?

Pak is doing a tight rope walk ever since Op Sindoor. It is wooing US investors including Trump-owned companies to invest in rare earths, crypto and oil exploration. Otoh, it is trying to assauge Chinese concerns over CPEC (unpaid power dues, Balochistan rebel attacks, etc). Some compromises seem to have been made.

Similarly, it is trying hard to balance ties with Turkey and KSA, both of which see themselves as leaders of the Muslim world. The hope is to get money, weapons and hedge against Indian attack. Imo, Pak is positioning itself as a low cost production hub for Turkish weapons using Saudi money. The Saudis and Turks have a defence relationship between them so this is not likely to be a problem.

They have recently reached to Armenia (which is an arch enemy of Azerbaijan) as well as Russia. So this is part of a larger design.

India's reset with China could be a reaction to these moves. The US will be unpredictable and difficult to manage for the foreseeable future. So, we're looking for othwr alternatives. Along with Russia, France gives us another veto in the UNSC. Greece and Cyprus can help us counterbalance Turkey to an extent. But we have no option but to stick to the GCC because of remittances and planned investments like IMEEC, etc.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Pak is doing a tight rope walk ever since Op Sindoor. It is wooing US investors including Trump-owned companies to invest in rare earths, crypto and oil exploration. Otoh, it is trying to assauge Chinese concerns over CPEC (unpaid power dues, Balochistan rebel attacks, etc). Some compromises seem to have been made.

Similarly, it is trying hard to balance ties with Turkey and KSA, both of which see themselves as leaders of the Muslim world. The hope is to get money, weapons and hedge against Indian attack. Imo, Pak is positioning itself as a low cost production hub for Turkish weapons using Saudi money. The Saudis and Turks have a defence relationship between them so this is not likely to be a problem.

They have recently reached to Armenia (which is an arch enemy of Azerbaijan) as well as Russia. So this is part of a larger design.

India's reset with China could be a reaction to these moves. The US will be unpredictable and difficult to manage for the foreseeable future. So, we're looking for othwr alternatives. Along with Russia, France gives us another veto in the UNSC. Greece and Cyprus can help us counterbalance Turkey to an extent. But we have no option but to stick to the GCC because of remittances and planned investments like IMEEC, etc.

Thanks for your constructive response. Building on them,

I doubt turkey will shift production to Pakistan given its own economy and need for manufacturing activity. Turkey doesn't require drones in such a number that shifting production will make sense. Or did I miss something?

As for armenia.. we did deliver weapons system recently. So the approach might be as a messenger from other power. Pak has played the messenger role in history before. Especially given Trump meeting Munir and then Trump corridor and "ceasefire" b/w armenia & azerbaijan. But that's just assumption. Given azerbaijan & paks closeness, it's highly unlikely for armenia to side with pak.

India's reset with China was probably more western bloc centric not west asian. I say this due to US' increased activity in bangladesh and Myanmar and it's implications. China is as much in it as India.

Turkey is not a new threat tbh and greece and cyprus are indeed strategic counter to them. They have been in it before 2000s too. With substantial stakes in terrorism industry but more focused on west asia's internal rivalry as you rightly stated above.

Coming to main point of pak doing tightrope walk.. I agree and that's where I see a very stark approach.
India also does it through Non-Alignment to Multi-Alignment, essentially keeping all at an arms length, promoting self reliance as seen increasingly.

But isnt pak doing it by increasing the number of influences on it rather than decreasing. It's counter to US influence was inviting Chinese in heavily, now this further beholden's them to saudi. It's like a hodge podge.
And while doing all of that.. its own partners probably remain wary of paks terrorism influence making its way into their populace. All of above remains very closed to Pakistani awam than what you will expect generally b/w ummah & allies. How far does this take them? Aren't they betting on nuclear cover too much at this rate?

# For GCC, I believe it depends on the actual pact itself. Otherwise that trade might be the bigger stick in itself.

 

[Kiduva21]

i still think it is to do with US/Israel failing to destroy Iran Nuclear program. KSA wants to guaranty Pak will use their nuke against Iran if Iran uses their. Even pak may host some Nuke missiles in Saudi under KSA control.

In video is they accuse Qatar to try to kill Saudi crown prince. They probably suspect Qatar to fund Iranian Nuke program too.

As for India its more head ache than threat. Don't think Saudi will send their military on behalf of Pak in to India to fight.

1. pak will strengthen its anti Iran proxy wars more.
2. more terrorists in Kashmir
3. More American weapons for pak

not sure but less presence of China in Pak, USA want China out of Pak.
Saudi may fund some projects left by Chinese.

 

[Kiduva21]

If Saudis have to spend money , they would rather give it to US rather than Pakistan

Pak does the dirty work, creating insurgents in Iran

 

[Kiduva21]

India's reset with China was probably more western bloc centric not west asian. I say this due to US' increased activity in bangladesh and Myanmar and it's implications. China is as much in it as India.

Don't see any reset with China - India relation, at max that will be "do nothing while China attack Taiwan"

In Myanmar, China has huge interest even more than Pakistan,
USA wants to counter china in Myanmar, that is why they need Chittagong as military base. previous Bangladesh govt did not allow it so they toppled it.

In Nepal , Better for India is a Non pro China govt.

# For GCC, I believe it depends on the actual pact itself. Otherwise that trade might be the bigger stick in itself.

Saudi problem is with Iran, India - Saudi relation should have got better when we stopped buying oil from Iran, we should do what Egypt and Israel got deal from USA. (Egypt gets similar to Israel Military aid from USA)

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/countries-that-receive-the-most-foreign-aid-from-the-u-s

 

[RationalGuy]

We'll need to see if this agreement commits both countries to send direct military assistance in case either of them went to war. If it does have something similar to NATO Article 5, then it would have serious security implications for India.

No. Saudi would never want to get into a direct war with India and they don't have the capability of waging war against India directly.

1, Last ditch insurance, in case US ditches them in future

2, if iran threatens nukes in future, and US does not provide nuclear umbrella than no matter what hell US will let loose having Pakistani nuke umbrella is still better.

Iran will never gain nukes. At most they will make some 15 kt bomb (read bomb, not usable weapon). Having a bomb is one thing having a deliverable nuclear weapon is another things which Iran will never have.

 

[Hydra]

US military in BD,Pakistan had military pact with KSA,KSA & US are allied countries. Connect the dot,we could have avoid this situation by now pausing sindoor. Next attack on Pakistan,expect a US KSA joint intervention.

 

[Subgradewalker]

US military in BD,Pakistan had military pact with KSA,KSA & US are allied countries. Connect the dot,we could have avoid this situation by now pausing sindoor. Next attack on Pakistan,expect a US KSA joint intervention.

I saved this post. Will revisit after next clash.

One more thing.. I don't think Indian military is ready for the war of attrition capabilities required for prolonged Operation right now. In 2016, the capability were limited: hence surgical strikes.
2019, Still initial days of reforms and advancement with some progress: Airstrike
2025, Comprehensive development of capabilities: short term operation with lethal attacks and subsequent shielding.
20xx: Ongoing. Today's investment are future assets.
This now includes investing in to infrastructure and institutions/ commands that specifically battle saudi funded info warfare and using Islamic card and it's influence during war. Which is different from Chinese info warfare.

 

[Speedster1]

I doubt turkey will shift production to Pakistan given its own economy and need for manufacturing activity. Turkey doesn't require drones in such a number that shifting production will make sense. Or did I miss something?

Things sure look headed that way. Turkey is already offloading artillery ammo production and UAV/missile components to Pak. Bayraktar has a R&D facility in Pak for joint-dev of things like Yiha-3 and small PGMs for TB-2, etc.

Saudi–Pakistan Defence Wall Against Tyranny

By Qamar BashirPress Secretary to the President (Rtd)Former Press Minister, Embassy of Pakistan to FranceFormer Press Attache to MalaysiaFormer MD, SRBC | Macomb, Michigan, USA The Doha summit forced the Muslim world to confront its greatest wea

www.dailyindependent.com.pk

As for armenia.. we did deliver weapons system recently. So the approach might be as a messenger from other power. Pak has played the messenger role in history before. Especially given Trump meeting Munir and then Trump corridor and "ceasefire" b/w armenia & azerbaijan. But that's just assumption. Given azerbaijan & paks closeness, it's highly unlikely for armenia to side with pak.

Pak is looking at Central Asian states in a big way to create an alternate trade route, much like India's plans for IMEEC. It helps that many of these nations are Islamic. Armenia can probably provide transit routes for some of these initiatives. Military coop will probably be limited.

India's reset with China was probably more western bloc centric not west asian. I say this due to US' increased activity in bangladesh and Myanmar and it's implications. China is as much in it as India.

True. However, India has found itself quite isolated since Op Sindoor. We may have sensed an opportunity to engage China now that Pak is getting back into the good books of DC. How it plays our remains to be seen.

But isnt pak doing it by increasing the number of influences on it rather than decreasing. It's counter to US influence was inviting Chinese in heavily, now this further beholden's them to saudi. It's like a hodge podge.
And while doing all of that.. its own partners probably remain wary of paks terrorism influence making its way into their populace. All of above remains very closed to Pakistani awam than what you will expect generally b/w ummah & allies. How far does this take them? Aren't they betting on nuclear cover too much at this rate?

The US' pro-India tilt was always a thorn in Pak side. Munir removed Imran so he could once again get into DC good books. They are trying to bridge US-China differences and milk both (1970s redux). Pak is like a mercenary that has been amd will be used by both the US (against India, Iran and to monitor Afghanistan) and China (against India).

It may have even mortgaged its N-weapons to the US, considering they use US-designed C2 bunkers and PAL links. So, they will continue to engage everyone and anyone at this stage.

 

[Subgradewalker]

True. However, India has found itself quite isolated since Op Sindoor. We may have sensed an opportunity to engage China now that Pak is getting back into the good books of DC. How it plays our remains to be seen.

I don't know where this nation of isolation is coming from. What kind of bonhomie were you really expecting from other nations? A standing ovation, praises while you bombed another nuclear power. No.
And does lack of praise means hostility? Nope. From UN to BRICS to US.. our stand on pahalgam issue was recognised. While China did not do anything despite pak being the all weather ally. Instead we got a RIC show just few months after.
What else are your reasons to think india was isolated? Trade deal.. that's Trump being Trump.. not US-India.

One more thing, India attacked without requiring permission. We completed objectives in unprecedented fashion. Need for approval shouldn't arise in the first place. What I see is a section of Indian public not being able to adapt to the newfound ability and posture of India's FP. For too long we have preferred foreign opinion over our own. Op sindoor put that tradition from our doctrine to end effectively.

Things sure look headed that way. Turkey is already offloading artillery ammo production and UAV/missile components to Pak. Bayraktar has a R&D facility in Pak for joint-dev of things like Yiha-3 and small PGMs for TB-2, etc.

Thanks. I will read further into it. I still have doubts tho for the scale of shift happening. But let's see.

The US' pro-India tilt was always a thorn in Pak side. Munir removed Imran so he could once again get into DC good books. They are trying to bridge US-China differences and milk both (1970s redux). Pak is like a mercenary that has been amd will be used by both the US (against India, Iran and to monitor Afghanistan) and China (against India).

It may have even mortgaged its N-weapons to the US, considering they use US-designed C2 bunkers and PAL links. So, they will continue to engage everyone and anyone at this stage.

That led to the disaster they are now. Further intensification of that approach can have more severe result. Cause the issue is domestic foundation which they lack. All the funds they get in being mercenary just flows back into others' pockets anyways. Not much for Pakistan as a nation.

True. However, India has found itself quite isolated since Op Sindoor. We may have sensed an opportunity to engage China now that Pak is getting back into the good books of DC. How it plays our remains to be seen.

I don't know where this nation of isolation is coming from. What kind of bonhomie were you really expecting from other nations? A standing ovation, praises while you bombed another nuclear power. No.
And does lack of praise means hostility? Nope. From UN to BRICS to US.. our stand on pahalgam issue was recognised. While China did not do anything despite pak being the all weather ally. Instead we got a RIC show just few months after.
What else are your reasons to think india was isolated? Trade deal.. that's Trump being Trump.. not US-India.

One more thing, India attacked without requiring permission. We completed objectives in unprecedented fashion. Need for approval shouldn't arise in the first place. What I see is a section of Indian public not being able to adapt to the newfound ability and posture of India's FP. For too long we have preferred foreign opinion over our own. Op sindoor put that tradition from our doctrine to end effectively.

Things sure look headed that way. Turkey is already offloading artillery ammo production and UAV/missile components to Pak. Bayraktar has a R&D facility in Pak for joint-dev of things like Yiha-3 and small PGMs for TB-2, etc.

Thanks. I will read further into it. I still have doubts tho for the scale of shift happening. But let's see.

The US' pro-India tilt was always a thorn in Pak side. Munir removed Imran so he could once again get into DC good books. They are trying to bridge US-China differences and milk both (1970s redux). Pak is like a mercenary that has been amd will be used by both the US (against India, Iran and to monitor Afghanistan) and China (against India).

It may have even mortgaged its N-weapons to the US, considering they use US-designed C2 bunkers and PAL links. So, they will continue to engage everyone and anyone at this stage.

That led to the disaster they are now. Further intensification of that approach can have more severe result. Cause the issue is domestic foundation which they lack. All the funds they get in being mercenary just flows back into others' pockets anyways. Not much for Pakistan as a nation.

 

[vstol Jockey]

What a let down on this forum. Pak nukes are controlled by USA. Will USA ever allow them to be used against Israel should it come to that? Next, We can destroy all their nukes within their own territory and make them unusable even with USA protecting them. Do you know, many US servicemen died in the attack on Nur Khan base and this was hidden from the world. Basically Pak surrender Army will be used against Houthies in Yemen? And they had been their for a very longtime and failed and butchered.
Trust me even USA gave info to Pakistan in Op Sindour. It was not just Pak, China, Turkey but also USA whom we defeated.

 

[Shan]

Do give this video a watch. You can read about the effectiveness of the KSA military forces in Yemen as well if you find yourself concerned about their ability to wage war.

 

[Subgradewalker]

What a let down on this forum. Pak nukes are controlled by USA. Will USA ever allow them to be used against Israel should it come to that? Next, We can destroy all their nukes within their own territory and make them unusable even with USA protecting them. Do you know, many US servicemen died in the attack on Nur Khan base and this was hidden from the world. Basically Pak surrender Army will be used against Houthies in Yemen? And they had been their for a very longtime and failed and butchered.
Trust me even USA gave info to Pakistan in Op Sindour. It was not just Pak, China, Turkey but also USA whom we defeated.

I believe the real threat comes from saudi's influence over indian muslims that it can use to stir internal issues during war. While, they might've been already doing it before, the formalisation opens up new areas of using that influence in wartime.

 

[South block]

Do give this video a watch. You can read about the effectiveness of the KSA military forces in Yemen as well if you find yourself concerned about their ability to wage war.

It's not about military but financial support they can provide pakistan.... Indian strikes & now Israel have probably rattled kingdom & porks probably tapped into that fear......losing Pakistan nuclear weapon to India's decapitating strikes would be a disaster for kingdom if you look from there point of view, the Sunni shield that protect from evil Shia Iran gone.

 

[_Anonymous_]

There's something much deeper going on which we don't know of. After all if this pact is aimed at Israel as many members here surmise , what happens if Israel were to attack KSA.

Does anyone seriously expect Paxtan to deploy Fauji Foundation to take on Israel or man KSA FAs to bombard Israel or even deploy N weapons against Israel ?

Have people forgotten Israel is brazen because they have the sole superpower of the world backing it solidly all the way & that they still enjoy bipartisan support in the US ?

This is more of a security guarantee against Iran . Have no illusions about it . So why now , why not earlier or later ? My guess is with the US going into an isolationist mode under Trump leave aside KSA , even Japan , Taiwan , RoK , EU don't know where do they stand vis a vis the US in terms of the security guarantees the US extended them.

In KSAs case they also financed a great deal of Egypt's purchases of arms armaments & platforms. There must have been some pact not disclosed to the world at large about the Egyptians coming the former's security in case of an emergency .

This was after Paxtan declined to deploy forces in Yemen ~ 2015 at the behest of KSA. In fact KSA sponsoring purchases for the Egyptian armed forces preceded this event. So what happened now for KSA to rush into an widely publicized agreement with Paxtan ? I've no clue. This also could be seen as a hedge against excessive dependence on Egypt.

Secondly w.r.t India ever since we & the Chinese have been purchasing Russian O & NG , OPEC producers haven't been able to capitalise on Russian oil having restricted access to the world's market.

This is also hurting US O & NG cos big time. See Trump's attempts to persuade EU to sanction India & China for buying Russian O & NG in this light. Both these parties are particularly cheesed off with India since there's little they can do to China & this is reflected in statements emanating from the Trump administration on a daily basis although the OPEC membership in the Gulf have kept their counsel.

So it's not as if our relationship with KSA is hunky dory. They're pursuing their interests just as we're pursuing ours.

So as you see there are wheels within wheels . The entire geo strategic & geo political scenario across the world is in a state of severe flux . Everybody's hedging & seeking short term benefits. Old pacts & understandings are being rapidly undermined & cast to the side.

 

[Subgradewalker]

It's not about military but financial support they can provide pakistan.... Indian strikes & now Israel have probably rattled kingdom & porks probably tapped into that fear......losing Pakistan nuclear weapon to India's decapitating strikes would be a disaster for kingdom if you look from there point of view, the Sunni shield that protect from evil Shia Iran gone.

Exactly. The operational/ conventional threat posed by saudi is none. It's the asymmetric threat which has implications for India.

 

[Shan]

It's not about military but financial support they can provide pakistan.... Indian strikes & now Israel have probably rattled kingdom & porks probably tapped into that fear......losing Pakistan nuclear weapon to India's decapitating strikes would be a disaster for kingdom if you look from there point of view, the Sunni shield that protect from evil Shia Iran gone.

I have addressed this in a post earlier. The financial aspect has always been there and can rise or wane depending on the needs of SA. I had made this post to address concerns that may stem from purely militaristic might or effectiveness. There people who have already touted this as a military pact that is akin to NATO pact(s). The details of the agreement are unknown. However, if such a thing does come to pass, even though it will not be favourable for India, it might still be manageable if we can take prudent steps.

 

[Subgradewalker]

This is more of a security guarantee against Iran . Have no illusions about it . So why now ' why not earlier or later ? My guess is with the US going into isolationist mode under Trump leave aside KSA , even Japan , Taiwan , RoK , EU don't know where do they stand vis a vis the US in terms of the security guarantees the US extended them.

So this puts Pak at greater odds with Iran. Russia & China has increased its partnership with Iran. Iran is also part of BRICS and SCO. Why does it feel like US is pushing India to invest more in RIC . Chabahar port anyone?

Do you think it's time for India to increase engagement with Afghanistan in Afghanistan. ( No Taliban in Indian soil pls) Through Iran and chabahar port. Just to keep the skin in the game there and deter the forces there.
While we can keep encouraging ties with Saudi as continuing?