Saudi Arabia signs mutual defence pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan

[Ashwin]

Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan have signed a formal mutual defence pact, state media from both countries said, in a move that significantly strengthens a decades-long security partnership.

“This agreement, which reflects the shared commitment of both nations to enhance their security and to achieving security and peace in the region and the world, aims to develop aspects of defense cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression. The agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” a joint statement published on Wednesday said, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

The defence pact was based on the “historic partnership” between the two countries, the statement said, and “shared strategic interests and close defence cooperation”.

During their meeting in Riyadh on Wednesday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif “discussed ways to enhance the strategic partnership between the two brotherly countries across various fields”, SPA said.

“They also exchanged views on regional and international developments, issues of common interest, and the efforts aimed at achieving security and stability.”

Saudi Arabia signs mutual defence pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan

Pact declares any attack on Saudi Arabia or Pakistan an attack on both, deepening shared security alliance.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Hydra]

KSA will not send any men to fight for Pakistan, but they can share equipment & provide finance to Pakistan during war without a second thought

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

KSA will not send any men to fight for Pakistan, but they can share equipment & provide finance to Pakistan during war without a second thought

KSA has already provided around 6 Billion USD in cash ie currently outstanding loans to Pakistanis

So now Pakistanis have to give Missiles and Nukes to Saudis in case of an Israeli attack

 

[Subgradewalker]

This indeed have security implications for India. Saudi already has big influence among indian muslims. And given the new age of warfare, Saudi and it's info warfare team will use their influence more overtly during indo-pak clash. This will be the real test of Indian citizens. So, I will say that this pact increases our internal security more than external one.

2nd, there might be a spike in formal channeling of money into pakistan in some military projects. But what remains to be seen is if pak has the foundation to use those funds for mil-tech effectively or will more of it just be funneled into generals pockets and terrorist networks.

3rd, the implications for USA will be manyfold. Very murky game US seems to be playing there. Saudi buys huge arms too, so any indigineous capability is direct threat there too. Looks like US' approach of using security & armaments supply to strong arm nations is finally coming full circle as the world enters into a non-US led world order. First EU, then GE 404 with India, Japan:ROK: Philipines to suck more out of them and resulting pivot towards other regional partners.. us is now facing open( not just covert) pushback on every single front. From Russia in europe, China in Pacific, and now Qatar like minded in middle east.

This leads me to think that contrary to a section of society's call for siding with US against russia especially thru blocking russian oil, is regressive and likely self harming than not. It might provide India with a leverage in current trade negotiation to get better technology transfer from USA.
Given the history of saudi channeling funds to Pakistan already and constant threat pak have posed since independence and our adaptation.. US might find itself in a greater bind here. [Or do we think that it was given green signal by US itself which open a new domain altogether.]

4. In practicality, Pakistan needs support more but saudi has little to offer more than it already did except oil money. But the pact offers more formal support to saudi but saudi faces of military intervention from Israel or west. It might face more threat from other islamic nations itself. Which puts pakistan in another bind.

So one pole USA, Second China, Third EU, Fourth India-pacific nations, Fifth.. fragmented west asia?.. leaves Africa up for grabs now.


What did I overlook or missed? Happy to have more insights.

 

[CATS @hunter]

The only outcome of this deal is Pakistan will get streamline flow of money, which they can pay to buy equipments from China,
Isarel ain't going to attack another gluf Nations over a very long period, Qatar was playing devil advocate, they had it coming, but that's not the case for Saudi, the deal might favour Saudi here, but Saudi won't face attack from the houthis, isarel or anyone else, meanwhile Pakistan will get the oil which they desperately needed at this time, there are loosing a regiment size numbers in year,

What's the demerit for india is, Pakistan got an ally who was closer to India, and now they got another cash Rich ally who can fund Thier misadventures,

The stopping of op sindoor is the biggest mistake of India State in this decade, a few more day continuing op would have put Pakistani military to 10-15 year's back,

 

[Speedster1]

This indeed have security implications for India. Saudi already has big influence among indian muslims. And given the new age of warfare, Saudi and it's info warfare team will use their influence more overtly during indo-pak clash. This will be the real test of Indian citizens. So, I will say that this pact increases our internal security more than external one.

2nd, there might be a spike in formal channeling of money into pakistan in some military projects. But what remains to be seen is if pak has the foundation to use those funds for mil-tech effectively or will more of it just be funneled into generals pockets and terrorist networks.

3rd, the implications for USA will be manyfold. Very murky game US seems to be playing there. Saudi buys huge arms too, so any indigineous capability is direct threat there too. Looks like US' approach of using security & armaments supply to strong arm nations is finally coming full circle as the world enters into a non-US led world order. First EU, then GE 404 with India, Japan:ROK: Philipines to suck more out of them and resulting pivot towards other regional partners.. us is now facing open( not just covert) pushback on every single front. From Russia in europe, China in Pacific, and now Qatar like minded in middle east.

This leads me to think that contrary to a section of society's call for siding with US against russia especially thru blocking russian oil, is regressive and likely self harming than not. It might provide India with a leverage in current trade negotiation to get better technology transfer from USA.
Given the history of saudi channeling funds to Pakistan already and constant threat pak have posed since independence and our adaptation.. US might find itself in a greater bind here. [Or do we think that it was given green signal by US itself which open a new domain altogether.]

4. In practicality, Pakistan needs support more but saudi has little to offer more than it already did except oil money. But the pact offers more formal support to saudi but saudi faces of military intervention from Israel or west. It might face more threat from other islamic nations itself. Which puts pakistan in another bind.

So one pole USA, Second China, Third EU, Fourth India-pacific nations, Fifth.. fragmented west asia?.. leaves Africa up for grabs now.


What did I overlook or missed? Happy to have more insights.

OIC already is a quasi military alliance. Iirc, a Pakistani general had been appointed commander of a joint GCC force to lead ops against Syria's Assad regime some time back. I also see a China hand in this. They were trying to broker peace between Iran and Israel and hopefully replace the US as the net security provider for GCC. Now they seem to be doing it more discreetly.

Everybody knows the Saudis bankrolled Pak N prog as insurance against Iran. Even now, Iran retains the ability to make N weapons and MBS has warned that KSA would follow suit if that happened. No prizes for guessing who'd supply them.

This is also a message to Netanyahu that attacks on Qatar/other Arab nations can have serious consequences. Apparently, the Israelis fired ALBMs that flew over KSA before hitting Doha to take out Hamas leadership. That must have been seen as a provocation.

 

[CATS @hunter]

"This is also a message to Netanyahu that attacks on Qatar/other Arab nations can have serious consequences."

Again the Arab May have the numbers or money they still don't possess the tech or the MIC, to be a significant threat to isareli, even if you add Pakistan, none of them have Indigenous MIC, the Pakistanis are dependent on Chinese, turkey, techs, even after decades they haven't made any significant breakthrough in rocket technology, or any other thing's for instance, the defence companies in gulf are forgien OEM's, also the gulf States are dependent on USA MIC,

 

[Hydra]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1968527188728180741

 

[Shan]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/how-israel-s-missile-strike-on-qatar-caught-the-us-off-guard-and-raised-tensions-in-the-middle-east-article-13544264.html

Israel carried out the strike on Tuesday, targeting Hamas political leaders in Qatar with air-launched ballistic missiles. Eight F-15s and four F-35s flew to the Red Sea, far from Qatar, and fired missiles into space over Saudi Arabia before they descended on Doha. This flight path allowed Israel to avoid flying through Arab states’ airspace, but the move left the US with only minutes of notice before impact. Washington was alerted too late to intervene, the Wall Street Journal reported.

GCC countries are unhappy with what happened. This will stir up some waves. I do not believe that this agreement was drafted in the last one month or so. They chose to sign it now. KSA has had decent relations with PA in the past as well. Will money flow to Pakistan from KSA? Sure. However, KSA has been providing grants and loans to Pakistan for a long period of time. More things will become clearer whenever the details of the agreement come out in the open (if they ever do).

Year	Type	Amount	Description
2014	Grant	$1.5 billion	Saudi Arabia provided a direct grant to support Pakistan's economy and foreign reserves amid economic challenges.
2018	Loan/Deposit Package	$6 billion	Package included $3 billion in balance-of-payment support (as a deposit in Pakistan's central bank) and $3 billion in deferred oil payments (effectively a loan). This was pledged during a visit by Pakistan's Prime Minister to Riyadh.
2019	Loan Extension	$3 billion (extension)	Extension of the 2018 deferred oil payments facility for another year, helping with energy imports.
2021	Deposit (Soft Loan)	$3 billion	Saudi Arabia deposited funds into Pakistan's State Bank to bolster reserves during a balance-of-payments crisis; this was renewed multiple times.
2022	Loan/Deposit Extension	$3 billion (extension)	Renewal of the 2021 deposit, plus additional oil financing support amid global economic pressures.
2023	Deposit (Soft Loan)	$2 billion	Fresh deposit into Pakistan's central bank to support economic stability, tied to IMF bailout conditions; extended from previous agreements.
2024	Loan/Deposit Extension	$5 billion (extension)	Rollover of existing deposits ($3 billion from 2021 and $2 billion from 2023) for another year, as part of ongoing financial cooperation.

 

[Shan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1968510650704900338

 

[Speedster1]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/how-israel-s-missile-strike-on-qatar-caught-the-us-off-guard-and-raised-tensions-in-the-middle-east-article-13544264.html

Israel carried out the strike on Tuesday, targeting Hamas political leaders in Qatar with air-launched ballistic missiles. Eight F-15s and four F-35s flew to the Red Sea, far from Qatar, and fired missiles into space over Saudi Arabia before they descended on Doha. This flight path allowed Israel to avoid flying through Arab states’ airspace, but the move left the US with only minutes of notice before impact. Washington was alerted too late to intervene, the Wall Street Journal reported.

GCC countries are unhappy with what happened. This will stir up some waves. I do not believe that this agreement was drafted in the last one month or so. They chose to sign it now. KSA has had decent relations with PA in the past as well. Will money flow to Pakistan from KSA? Sure. However, KSA has been providing grants and loans to Pakistan for a long period of time. More things will become clearer whenever the details of the agreement come out in the open (if they ever do).

Year	Type	Amount	Description
2014	Grant	$1.5 billion	Saudi Arabia provided a direct grant to support Pakistan's economy and foreign reserves amid economic challenges.
2018	Loan/Deposit Package	$6 billion	Package included $3 billion in balance-of-payment support (as a deposit in Pakistan's central bank) and $3 billion in deferred oil payments (effectively a loan). This was pledged during a visit by Pakistan's Prime Minister to Riyadh.
2019	Loan Extension	$3 billion (extension)	Extension of the 2018 deferred oil payments facility for another year, helping with energy imports.
2021	Deposit (Soft Loan)	$3 billion	Saudi Arabia deposited funds into Pakistan's State Bank to bolster reserves during a balance-of-payments crisis; this was renewed multiple times.
2022	Loan/Deposit Extension	$3 billion (extension)	Renewal of the 2021 deposit, plus additional oil financing support amid global economic pressures.
2023	Deposit (Soft Loan)	$2 billion	Fresh deposit into Pakistan's central bank to support economic stability, tied to IMF bailout conditions; extended from previous agreements.
2024	Loan/Deposit Extension	$5 billion (extension)	Rollover of existing deposits ($3 billion from 2021 and $2 billion from 2023) for another year, as part of ongoing financial cooperation.

We'll need to see if this agreement commits both countries to send direct military assistance in case either of them went to war. If it does have something similar to NATO Article 5, then it would have serious security implications for India.

 

[Kiduva21]

So now Pakistan army will be on ground in Yeman against hoothis?
Both USA and KSA was funding Pak for long time. don't think it is going to change.
Israel and USA failure to completely destroy Iranian Nuclear program should have caused it.
"Isreali attack on Qatar" is just to show to people to this deal.

 

[CATS @hunter]

So now Pakistan army will be on ground in Yeman against hoothis?
Both USA and KSA was funding Pak for long time. don't think it is going to change.
Israel and USA failure to completely destroy Iranian Nuclear program should have caused it.
"Isreali attack on Qatar" is just to show to people to this deal.

Pakistan army won't be in ground on any forgien countries, at least in this decade, isarel will not start a war with another gluf States, we All know why Qatar got bombed, they tried to bite more than they can chew, iran is far away from starting any conflict, IRGC is in the weakest position right now, so does houthis, isarel literally solved More than half of the problem for saudis, this deal may give a Saudi protection under nuclear umbrella, but Pakistan nuclear tech is in the lowest tier among nuclear nations, they don't have triad, thier MIRV tech is ambiguous, Thier rockets test have regular failures, and they are up against someone who can fire thermonuclear weapons, i were in the position i would be optimistic about the deal, but again isarel is a small country, you just need to drop one nuclear weapon somehow,
The deal provide more benifits to Saudi on paper but in today's reality it's the Pakistanis who are gonna get the Cash,

Also After qatar bombing, Pakistanis are itching to have fight with isarel,

 

[Gosu]

This deal was definitely made with Israel as the primary cause, but-

We'll need to see if this agreement commits both countries to send direct military assistance in case either of them went to war. If it does have something similar to NATO Article 5, then it would have serious security implications for India.

The biggest takeaway from this is that going forward you can bet your asses that Pakistan will arm-twist Saudi into funding their weapons procurement for continued upkeep of the agreement.

There's no way Arabs are going to send their men die for Pakistan. Pakistan with Saudi's financial backing is just... ugh.

 

[Ashwin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1968527188728180741

https://twitter.com/x/status/1968551588915818959

https://twitter.com/x/status/1968518967884136830

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

This is just for Creating some Pressure on US to rein in ISRAEL

If Saudis have to spend money , they would rather give it to US rather than Pakistan

Pakistanis are just trying to milk the Saudis using the prevailing Sentiments
Which have been Hurt by Israeli attack on Qatar

 

[Speedster1]

This deal was definitely made with Israel as the primary cause, but-

The biggest takeaway from this is that going forward you can bet your asses that Pakistan will arm-twist Saudi into funding their weapons procurement for continued upkeep of the agreement.

There's no way Arabs are going to send their men die for Pakistan. Pakistan with Saudi's financial backing is just... ugh.

The Saudis are rumored to have financed Pak purchase of VT-4 MBT and possibly even the Damen OPVs. Those deals were signed when Pak was really scraping the bottom of the barrel a few years back. This agreement only makes it official.

 

[screambowl]

What they are doing:

1. Pakistan is trying best to get western weapon systems be it second hand

What they will do in case of skirmish:

4. Get real time inputs from their foreign partners
5. Suspend all treaties with India to make Kashmir issue a multiparty issue to involve direct help from foreign partners

In my opinion these kinds of Pact won't really work directly against India but they will certainly give Pakistan both financial and military resources to counter India and Iran. India should be very careful because now this will have direct implications on Kashmir, and in a year or two can cause another round of escalation which can be equivalent to full scale war like in 1971 . Pakistanis are done with the Chinese weapons what they already have. They will aim for better quality of western weapons after getting thrashed during Op Sindoor, some Chinese too if Chinese give them their A Grade weapons, but I doubt it.

Pakistan will rely less on Chinese weaponry now the will seek more from west.

 

[screambowl]

As I mentioned and what I thought

Four confirmed

In my opinion:

What they are doing which is India centric:

1. Pakistan is trying best to get western weapon systems be it second hand
2. Increased the momentum of proxy war to create hostage situations and espionage activities ( especially Industrial and military espionage)
3. Producing more SRBMs and MRBMs. MRBMs so that they can be launched from western areas of Pakistan
4. Deploying more radars to cover larger areas
5. Getting comm devices with better encryption, telecom devices to tap telecom networks and increasing their cyberwar capability
6. Approaching countries where India has very good strategic and trade relations to sabotage diplomatic relations
7. Planning such covert operations where India has no way to blame Pakistan, and there is a scope of deniability

Two confirmed.

What they will do:

1. They will launch surprize covert operation to take Indian villages as hostages before evacuation could take place to blackmail India
2. Use of special force to sabotage/neutralize Indian air defence and tele comms
3. Use of MRBM and long range cruise missiles
4. Get real time inputs from their foreign partners
5. Suspend all treaties with India to make Kashmir issue a multiparty issue to involve direct help from foreign partners

 

[Subgradewalker]

More importantly ..

1. what implications does it have for our new doctrine of targeting terror sponsors vis a vis op sindoor. Also need to see if the pact involves invocation during defensive position or also put onus in an offensive by either of them.

2. So now Pakistan have formalises it's nuclear security cover to saudi, probably irking israel, USA to an extent. Saudi cash flow will see a spike but as I said above, more depends on type of investment and utilisation. Otherwise CPEC was a 50billion dollar project. Can also be seen as saudi hedging against USA to pivot towards Chinese backed initiative? But if that's the case then why would China allow those funds to flow to western defense establishment and not Chinese. Is this US backed? Providing saudi with needed formal security cover to deter a mis-calculation?
Ofcourse, the third one with no role of China-USA in this, which opens another point of contention.

3. Any attempt to use those funds to buy non Chinese systems will irk beijing too. And western nations will be cautious before selling anything advanced or game changing due to Chinese presence and it's not so hidden attempts at stealing those tech. They haven't provided any path breaking tech to India due to russian concern despite india having grown out from Russian influence and control over tech..

4. Is a saudi funded indigenous R&D on cards by Pakistan? A formal collaboration rather than informal one going till date.

5. First bangladesh opened its soil for US-China cold war and is playing a rather familiar but dangerous game.
Nepal also tried to. both got a reality check and probably this is just a minor teaser of getting caught in superpower rivalry.
India & Pakistan are also in it with US& China having their influence in both nations.

While India has stayed out of it and in recent years trying to build self-reliance, eroding the presence of influence present.. ( long discussion in itself)

Pakistan seems to have a opposite approach from India yet again. Instead of weening off from foreign dependence and influence, they are likely inviting more of it. The kind that could be fatal. Given the nature of Pakistan as a state and foreign presence there.. it's interesting to see how will Munir play this out. Although they do have experience in double games with US post 2001.

What acc to you guys is approach India can take that doesn't call for showing meek behaviour and colonial mindset.
#Continue as it is?
#Increase co-operation with saudi? (Non-military)
# This also marks the first time in Asia where such nuclear cover is officially extended beyond borders, which opens up another can of worms. So, shall we extend our protective defense umbrella to like minded Nations in periphery to reduce and prevent any decision stemming from anxiety and bait by either China or Pakistan, using the above pact as a stepping stone? Ex: Srilanka, Bhutan, Mauritius etc.


Note: The approach & focusing on self-reliance, make in India and intensifying the funding in R&D, increased military & civil capabilities is taken as default and the foundation, hence didn't mention it. Several of governments initiatives started in around 2015 are showing the importance of them and prudence and vision of those policies.