I don't know if it's "exponentially", but I believe the odds have gone up. The opinion of the Swedes is that USA is focusing on the Pacific and so is UK, so Sweden is going to have to concentrate more on doing defense alone. Also, they do not consider themselves to be a real ally of USA in the same sense as France is/was: therefore it is not a given that USA would support Sweden in conflict.Rafale odds in Finland have gone up exponentially.
To sum it up: USA chances go down, probably also UK since it is part of AUKUS, Sweden is a weak partner, therefore I believe Rafale to be the winner.
Of course I could be wrong. We shall certainly see. But I have been voting for Rafale for some time. Sometimes I change my opinion, but then I come back to voting Rafale. Of course I won't be deciding anything and of course I could be wrong, but Rafale is my vote right now.
This is the Finnish language article about Swedish opinions, use your favourite translator:
Ruotsalainen kommodori kehottaa ruotsalaisia varautumaan Venäjän laajenevaan reviiriin: "Tarvitsemme kaikkia ystäviä, jotka vain saamme"
Ruotsalainen kommodori varoittaa Venäjän kasvaneista mahdollisuuksista laajentaa reviiriiän Itämeren alueella.