Project 75 India Diesel-electric Submarine Programs (SSK) : Updates and Discussions

Who will win the P75I program?

  • L&T and Navantia

    Votes: 12 44.4%
  • MDL and TKMS

    Votes: 5 18.5%
  • It will get canceled eventually

    Votes: 10 37.0%

  • Total voters
    27
That's the only argument available. Because incompetence is not enough of an explanation for something we are seeing across the board. We have quite literally not inducted a single new offensive system after Rafale. The only things we have focused on is force multipliers, defensive systems and other support systems.

We have more than enough ground forces on the border today. Enough to not just defend but also take vast amounts of territory inside China, 4-6 divisions worth of offensive troops. We have enough airpower to support that. And our border infra also matches Chinese infra today. So we are the opposite of being a sissy. But at the same time, we have limited our offensive capabilities to an extent that prevents China from worrying about the Indian front along a more strategic scale.

So today we are at a point where we can invade China and significantly hurt their pride, but it's not to the extent that it's an existential threat to Tibet. This is more than enough to avoid their evil eye while they gaze upon other fronts which are becoming more dangerous day by day. You can see that Vietnam has chosen a similar approach, more focus on land power and less focus on destabilizing capabilities.

So, with that goal in mind, I suppose GoI believes 36 Rafales, 84-96 MKI MLUs and 100+ LCA Mk1As are enough for this decade. And all primary offensive systems across the board are aimed for 2030+.

At least we know it's working. China's completely focused on other fronts.
The simplest explanation is often the accurate one.

The IAF top brass living in dreamland, coupled with PMO forcing MoD to do all kinds of new age experiments on the most important projects and Finance ministry showing the red flag from a small distance away.

This is the reason. Nothing more nothing less.
 
I have made an argument that after Doklam in 2017, the govt has deliberately weakened themselves militarily in order to placate China so they can concentrate in the Pacific. So there have been no real contracts for offensive weapons systems since then. 2016 was the last major one.

So all new offensive systems are planned for 2030+ instead. Which explains why there has been movement everywhere in terms of new programs. Which means, instead of getting stuff today, which will become old 2030+, we are aiming to get cutting-edge capabilities when they matter. For example, buying 114 Rafale F5 instead of F3 or F4 makes more sense. We are seeing movement on FICV and FRCV as well. And the infantry modernization.

I don't know if I buy into this explanation.

The border infrastructure drive we began after 2014 (which we ramped up after Doklam & even more after Galwan) is far more threatening to the Chinese than any conventional platform we can buy. Because that infrastructure represents an ability to induct forces, take & hold territory. In fact it can be argued that this build-out is what is causing the Chinese to get increasingly jittery, and as a consequence speed up their own build-out.

And speaking of conventional inductions, it's not the 36 Rafales (of which only 18 are LAC-facing) that have the Chinese worried, rather it's the 73 Tejas Mk-1A we ordered in 2021. It's these large numbers of AESA-equipped fighters that threaten to change the entire equation of Air Defence on the LAC.

If you want to say Tejas is a 'defensive' asset because it doesn't have long legs, fine...but then we have also brought the concept of Rocket Forces to the fore. Development of a new-generation SRBM like Pralay which was in cold storage for a long time, was greenlit only after Doklam & is now in full swing. There's no way that isn't an offensive weapon.

It is true however, that we definitely took a good hard look at our PRIORITIES and decided to spend our Capex accordingly. Because offensive or defensive, all systems cost money that we need to take out of the same pocket. I would say the drying up of orders of flashy, big-ticket foreign aircraft is a result of that prioritization, not a need to placate the CCP.

E.g. there's no point in having an aircraft that can perform DPS if your ground forces lack the infrastructure to actually go and hold the territory gained by those DP strikes, and keep their lines resupplied while doing so.
 
The simplest explanation is often the accurate one.

The IAF top brass living in dreamland, coupled with PMO forcing MoD to do all kinds of new age experiments on the most important projects and Finance ministry showing the red flag from a small distance away.

This is the reason. Nothing more nothing less.

It doesn't make sense because you are only looking at the IAF and Rafale, but it's across the board across all services. Not a single new offensive system has been ordered after Rafale. And it's already been 8 years since.

The IA's reorganization was also aimed for 2024, but it will still take a few more years to get it right. Validating new concepts could take us closer to 2030. We may even have to roll back some changes depending on the situation. And then this will have to be applied in J&K as a whole as well.

Everything points towards getting ready for 2030+.

And what dreamland is the IAF living in? They only want proven equipment that's already operational. Even their AMCA requirements are quite modest. A lot of it was decided based on what DRDO said they can achieve, it originally started off as a simple aircraft with limited LO stealth and no supercruise, MTOW at 20T, which the IAF assumed was within the scope of DRDO to deliver. It was a proper Jaguar replacement. Even IUSAV is not some hi-fi design like Okhotnik, it's a small LCA-sized aircraft. The IN's also given requirements more suitable for a NATO force from the early 2000s.
 
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I don't know if I buy into this explanation.

The border infrastructure drive we began after 2014 (which we ramped up after Doklam & even more after Galwan) is far more threatening to the Chinese than any conventional platform we can buy. Because that infrastructure represents an ability to induct forces, take & hold territory. In fact it can be argued that this build-out is what is causing the Chinese to get increasingly jittery, and as a consequence speed up their own build-out.

And speaking of conventional inductions, it's not the 36 Rafales (of which only 18 are LAC-facing) that have the Chinese worried, rather it's the 73 Tejas Mk-1A we ordered in 2021. It's these large numbers of AESA-equipped fighters that threaten to change the entire equation of Air Defence on the LAC.

If you want to say Tejas is a 'defensive' asset because it doesn't have long legs, fine...but then we have also brought the concept of Rocket Forces to the fore. Development of a new-generation SRBM like Pralay which was in cold storage for a long time, was greenlit only after Doklam & is now in full swing. There's no way that isn't an offensive weapon.

It is true however, that we definitely took a good hard look at our PRIORITIES and decided to spend our Capex accordingly. Because offensive or defensive, all systems cost money that we need to take out of the same pocket. I would say the drying up of orders of flashy, big-ticket foreign aircraft is a result of that prioritization, not a need to placate the CCP.

E.g. there's no point in having an aircraft that can perform DPS if your ground forces lack the infrastructure to actually go and hold the territory gained by those DP strikes, and keep their lines resupplied while doing so.

In terms of both infra and combat capabilities, everything we have today or are planning to develop over the next few years are about maintaining a defensive-offense posture all across the border.

And we are developing infrastructure in phases. So this year or early next year, we will have parity and/or superiority over the Chinese in many areas. This already has a massive multiplier effect for our logistics at the border.

So there's this one:
Being built at war-footing.

And this one:
Most of it has been built, but will now be built further to connect to forward areas along the border. It wasn't done before to placate China, but now we gotta complete it.

And then we have this:

1.jpg


Of course, the routemap of the Frontier Highway will be much more than just what's been shown.

They claim all of these will be done by 2027, but realistically it's gonna be 2030. Once these road networks are ready, by then this will be mostly ready too:
1.jpg


You can see the redundancy close to the hotspots, Delhi and WB. And these lines will naturally connect to other local railway lines up to the border.

And then, finally, there's this:
The Sagarmala Programme has identified connectivity between ports and domestic production and consumption centers through rail, road, pipeline, MMLP under the dedicated pillar of port connectivity, consisting of 279 projects of total worth 206,363 lakh crore which are being undertaken by various implementing agencies. Out of these, 83 projects worth 43,300 crores have been completed and 66 projects worth 79,600 crores have been awarded and are under implementation. Remaining, 130 projects worth 83,400 crores are under development.
1.png



Focus on the blue line in the NE.

Another interesting water link.
1.jpg


Which is a part of this:

What we have today is enough to fight at the border. But what we will get around 2027-30, up to 2035, will be enough to launch an invasion into Tibet.

With that in mind, LCAs meet the threshold of what's necessary for the defensive-offense posture. But with all the changes we have made on the ground, possessing 200 Rafales will easily push us into the offensive posture. And this can very, very easily change our dynamics with China, and push us into something unaffordable.

The thing is we need everything to be ready at the same time. With 200 Rafales, only the IAF will be ready. But the IA needs to reorganize and modernize, and the IN needs next gen ships and subs too, including SSNs. And the entire country needs this infrastructure built before a shooting war begins. And this includes energy self-sufficiency via renewables.

Everything we need is aimed for a 2030+ delivery, and this is not just infra and military hardware, there's a lot of work going on behind the scenes for electronic infrastructure. For example, the IAF is currently working on a massive network that connects all armed forces. ISRO is preparing to launch dozens of satellites for the IAF over the next 5 years. So, post 2030, whatever we buy, be it aircraft, ships or ground units, vehicles and personnel, they will all be seamlessly integrated for communication and coordination.

We follow a different philosophy from others and this is a simple graph explaining that.
1.jpg


So we are preparing accordingly.
 
“The Chinese naval officers I’ve spoken to in years past have said they fear the humiliation that would result from any kind of failure, and this of course has the effect of them being less likely to take action if there is an increased risk of failure,” Mr. Wertheim said. “In essence, the success the Ukrainians are having is a message to the Chinese.”

This is what we are counting on until 2030-35. Even a stalemate is a victory for us.
 
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That's the only argument available. Because incompetence is not enough of an explanation for something we are seeing across the board. We have quite literally not inducted a single new offensive system after Rafale. The only things we have focused on is force multipliers, defensive systems and other support systems.

We have more than enough ground forces on the border today. Enough to not just defend but also take vast amounts of territory inside China, 4-6 divisions worth of offensive troops. We have enough airpower to support that. And our border infra also matches Chinese infra today. So we are the opposite of being a sissy. But at the same time, we have limited our offensive capabilities to an extent that prevents China from worrying about the Indian front along a more strategic scale.

So today we are at a point where we can invade China and significantly hurt their pride, but it's not to the extent that it's an existential threat to Tibet. This is more than enough to avoid their evil eye while they gaze upon other fronts which are becoming more dangerous day by day. You can see that Vietnam has chosen a similar approach, more focus on land power and less focus on destabilizing capabilities.

So, with that goal in mind, I suppose GoI believes 36 Rafales, 84-96 MKI MLUs and 100+ LCA Mk1As are enough for this decade. And all primary offensive systems across the board are aimed for 2030+.

At least we know it's working. China's completely focused on other fronts.
I smell our yesterday year pm Nehru here, " 1962: don't use IAF ,or else china will get angry" . Bloody he'll,they were doing salami slicing,they were encircling you. You still don't want offensive, because china will get provoke. Man what extra need to do so that we wake up against china, surrendering Delhi to the Chinese force?
 

Is this not a reason for us to ramp up our military capabilities?
@randomradio
I smell our yesterday year pm Nehru here, " 1962: don't use IAF ,or else china will get angry" . Bloody he'll,they were doing salami slicing,they were encircling you. You still don't want offensive, because china will get provoke. Man what extra need to do so that we wake up against china, surrendering Delhi to the Chinese force?
 
I smell our yesterday year pm Nehru here, " 1962: don't use IAF ,or else china will get angry" . Bloody he'll,they were doing salami slicing,they were encircling you. You still don't want offensive, because china will get provoke. Man what extra need to do so that we wake up against china, surrendering Delhi to the Chinese force?

What happened in 1962 is stupidity. But this time, forget India, even the US doesn't want to fight China.

You avoid a fight until you are ready to fight.

In any case, the Chinese are in a far worse position than India. We don't need to do anything. The more we delay, the more things work in our favor.
 
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In terms of both infra and combat capabilities, everything we have today or are planning to develop over the next few years are about maintaining a defensive-offense posture all across the border.

And we are developing infrastructure in phases. So this year or early next year, we will have parity and/or superiority over the Chinese in many areas. This already has a massive multiplier effect for our logistics at the border.

So there's this one:
Being built at war-footing.

And this one:
Most of it has been built, but will now be built further to connect to forward areas along the border. It wasn't done before to placate China, but now we gotta complete it.

And then we have this:

View attachment 32627

Of course, the routemap of the Frontier Highway will be much more than just what's been shown.

They claim all of these will be done by 2027, but realistically it's gonna be 2030. Once these road networks are ready, by then this will be mostly ready too:
View attachment 32630

You can see the redundancy close to the hotspots, Delhi and WB. And these lines will naturally connect to other local railway lines up to the border.

And then, finally, there's this:
The Sagarmala Programme has identified connectivity between ports and domestic production and consumption centers through rail, road, pipeline, MMLP under the dedicated pillar of port connectivity, consisting of 279 projects of total worth 206,363 lakh crore which are being undertaken by various implementing agencies. Out of these, 83 projects worth 43,300 crores have been completed and 66 projects worth 79,600 crores have been awarded and are under implementation. Remaining, 130 projects worth 83,400 crores are under development.
View attachment 32629



Focus on the blue line in the NE.

Another interesting water link.
View attachment 32631

Which is a part of this:

What we have today is enough to fight at the border. But what we will get around 2027-30, up to 2035, will be enough to launch an invasion into Tibet.

And don't forget the Sela tunnel - that baby alone changes the equation around Tawang, which we are now not only in a position to properly defend year-round (which we couldn't back in '62), but to also use it as a launch pad for offensives into Tibet.

With that in mind, LCAs meet the threshold of what's necessary for the defensive-offense posture. But with all the changes we have made on the ground, possessing 200 Rafales will easily push us into the offensive posture. And this can very, very easily change our dynamics with China, and push us into something unaffordable.

The thing is we need everything to be ready at the same time. With 200 Rafales, only the IAF will be ready. But the IA needs to reorganize and modernize, and the IN needs next gen ships and subs too, including SSNs. And the entire country needs this infrastructure built before a shooting war begins. And this includes energy self-sufficiency via renewables.

Everything we need is aimed for a 2030+ delivery, and this is not just infra and military hardware, there's a lot of work going on behind the scenes for electronic infrastructure. For example, the IAF is currently working on a massive network that connects all armed forces. ISRO is preparing to launch dozens of satellites for the IAF over the next 5 years. So, post 2030, whatever we buy, be it aircraft, ships or ground units, vehicles and personnel, they will all be seamlessly integrated for communication and coordination.

We follow a different philosophy from others and this is a simple graph explaining that.
View attachment 32626

So we are preparing accordingly.

Yeah we are definitely prioritizing. We must actually thank the Chinese for Doklam & Galwan. Without those wake-up calls, each service would have remained stuck in its own silo, and procuring things at its own pace. But since these incidents, we have started taking a more holistic approach to procurement.

We are focusing on building out the basement & ground floor before going to lay additional slabs. From the Chinese perspective, what we are doing is now far more threatening to them than what we used to do pre-Doklam.

We are now no longer F'ing around.
 
And don't forget the Sela tunnel - that baby alone changes the equation around Tawang, which we are now not only in a position to properly defend year-round (which we couldn't back in '62), but to also use it as a launch pad for offensives into Tibet.



Yeah we are definitely prioritizing. We must actually thank the Chinese for Doklam & Galwan. Without those wake-up calls, each service would have remained stuck in its own silo, and procuring things at its own pace. But since these incidents, we have started taking a more holistic approach to procurement.

We are focusing on building out the basement & ground floor before going to lay additional slabs. From the Chinese perspective, what we are doing is now far more threatening to them than what we used to do pre-Doklam.

We are now no longer F'ing around.
We are thanking Pakistan for Feb,2019.
Chinese for doklam,2017 & galwan 2020.
Such a generous country we are.
 
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And don't forget the Sela tunnel - that baby alone changes the equation around Tawang, which we are now not only in a position to properly defend year-round (which we couldn't back in '62), but to also use it as a launch pad for offensives into Tibet.

We are building tunnels everywhere. At least 29 new ones being built right now.

Lots of last-mile connectivity projects going on, like the Atal Tunnel.

Yeah we are definitely prioritizing. We must actually thank the Chinese for Doklam & Galwan. Without those wake-up calls, each service would have remained stuck in its own silo, and procuring things at its own pace. But since these incidents, we have started taking a more holistic approach to procurement.

We are focusing on building out the basement & ground floor before going to lay additional slabs. From the Chinese perspective, what we are doing is now far more threatening to them than what we used to do pre-Doklam.

We are now no longer F'ing around.

Yeah, the ostriches needed the wake-up call. We really have to thank the Chinese for that, and for screwing up their own economy.

Furthermore, the govt has subsumed the capital budget into a single vertical. And it's also grown by a massive 20% this year, which yours truly predicted would begin happening a few years ago. And we will keep seeing such growth intermittently, which will easily help double and even triple the capital budget. And that will push us into the big boys' club, with the ability to place sizable bulk orders with really fast delivery cycles.
 
Agreed,I am not even asking to start war today evening. Whatbi am saying is despite of beeing the victim of Chinese bullying, we are not doing anything concrete to improve our military punch.

We have added 2 strike corps and an extra 3 divisions on their border, and are developing border infrastructure which greatly increases the firepower and mobility of these units.
 
Simple simple answer. Incompetence at every level of procurement. If it was not for Parrikar, we would not have even the Tejas. And then we will be playin 7D chess to explain why Rafale and F-16 are the cats whiskers.

Not true. Procurement has never been more efficient in our entire history. It's the scale of procurement that has slowed down, and it all looks deliberate, as I have outlined in earlier posts.

It's all the sexy stuff that's slowed down, which points towards a greater gameplan than just mere incompetence.

Basically, people are only looking at Rafale/FGFA and P-75I and have decided that it's incompetence while ignoring SSBN/SSN, T-90, LCA, AK-203, SAMs, base upgrades, expensive all-weather bunkers in the mountains etc. A lot of money was lost to emergency procurement as well, amounting to tens of thousands of crores over multiple years. Quite a bit of procurement was invisible as well, since we have bought a lot of ammo to meet our objective for 40 days of war.

Already, about 85% of the ammunition requirement has been indigenised, from both the public and private sectors, sources said.

As part of this, indigenisation of more than 30 variants, amounting to about ₹16,000 crores,

Then there's our BMD program, which is a massive sinkhole for money. The MKI MLU is also expensive. The army's reorganization is also going to be quite expensive. All three services have begun an expensive indigenization drive for all sorts of consumables.

Rafale and P-75I are just two programs out of thousands of programs.
 
Ask yourself and tell me. If i give you Tejas & Rafale and asks you engage attacking PAF or PLAAF, which one will you take. Remember, if you didn't make up 1) you will have a widow in your home & kid/kids without father & financial support
2) Nation loosing territory to the enemy.

Parikar just crippled our airforce, either knowingly or unknowingly.
No matter what happens, I would not pick the F-16. I would have picked up 36 more Rafale. Spend 10 years and get 200 tejas.
Not true. Procurement has never been more efficient in our entire history. It's the scale of procurement that has slowed down, and it all looks deliberate, as I have outlined in earlier posts.

It's all the sexy stuff that's slowed down, which points towards a greater gameplan than just mere incompetence.

Basically, people are only looking at Rafale/FGFA and P-75I and have decided that it's incompetence while ignoring SSBN/SSN, T-90, LCA, AK-203, SAMs, base upgrades, expensive all-weather bunkers in the mountains etc. A lot of money was lost to emergency procurement as well, amounting to tens of thousands of crores over multiple years. Quite a bit of procurement was invisible as well, since we have bought a lot of ammo to meet our objective for 40 days of war.

Already, about 85% of the ammunition requirement has been indigenised, from both the public and private sectors, sources said.

As part of this, indigenisation of more than 30 variants, amounting to about ₹16,000 crores,

Then there's our BMD program, which is a massive sinkhole for money. The MKI MLU is also expensive. The army's reorganization is also going to be quite expensive. All three services have begun an expensive indigenization drive for all sorts of consumables.

Rafale and P-75I are just two programs out of thousands of programs.

Modi is truly Nehru 2.0, if your line of thinking is true.
 
Modi is truly Nehru 2.0, if your line of thinking is true.

We have like 16 or 17 divisions arrayed against the Chinese. 4 of those are purely offensive corps. That's the opposite of Nehru.

And in 1962, Nehru was fooled, when he had the ability to fight. Today, it's extremely stupid for us to fight the Chinese. They will hit everything of importance in India. It will take them 2 days to reduce our power generation capacity by 50%. And they have BMD, while we are still developing ours.

We can fight a border war, but we can't control escalation at this time, never mind the fact that we can't afford the $5B per day bill.

If we lose, well and good, the Chinese will also stop. But if we keep winning, the Chinese will never stop the war. We can't afford that.

And what about you personally? You do realize war with China will mean we will close our stock market right, and capital controls will be initiated? We may even end up in a situation where food, water and fuel will be rationed in cities.
 
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