How bad is the situation in Pakistan really? Is it just because the economy is in the dump that there seems to be so much discontent? Was IK really that beloved?
do you think the army/establishment will be able to really go back to the way things were or do you think they've completely lost the common man's support and its just a matter of time before they get shooken up?
Economy is prime. Govts rise or fall due to economic conditions.
The issue with Pakistan is people are struggling and want someone to blame, and unfortunately for the PA, instead of working behind the scenes, they directly crushed IK's govt right in front of the people. So now the PA is the target of the people's ire, and the reason for that...
The PA is unable to contain security threats from the TTP and BLA, so people are also seeing weaknesses in an institution they admired for decades. Pretty much every Pakistani understands that India has gone far ahead of Pak, and any thoughts of containing India are only in their self-proclaimed myths. So the PA as an institution has already been crumbling, especially since after the US so easily penetrated Pakistani airspace and took out bin Laden. People also witnessed how rattled the PA was 'cause of Balakot, ISPR made sure of that. It's especially worse in PoK, where people-to-people relations with Kashmir has allowed them to witness firsthand how much of a difference there is between the two regions. One side is struggling with food, the other side is building metro stations.
Plus the PTI had become extremely popular due to the PA's own efforts, riding on the same bus that removed Sharif from Pakistan. Then the people see that Sharif who was booted out due to corruption and is now being brought back in by the same bus, making a mockery of them. There comes a point when even an idiot can put 2 and 2 together, the final realization that the PA is far too influential, can make or break govts, so they have the power to make or break economies too.
If PA, after successive dicatorships, and PML-N and PPP, after successive rules, couldn't put Pakistan together again, the people had pinned all their hopes on PTI. Plus, unlike the moderate PA, PML-N and PPP, the PTI had embraced radicalism, a hero of a religious people, but the worst possible outcome for the PA. And the PA went and killed their hero and their hopes.
Recall the film Gladiator? This is a Commodus moment for the PA, they failed to destroy PTI's name before they acted upon their whims. Niazi is no gladiator, but he was still the people's champion. Even theRoman emperors and Chenghiz Khad did not have the gall to do with the PA did. So what the PA should have done; allowed him to stay in power and lose credibility naturally over time, 'cause he's powerless to fix Pak's economy anyway. PTI would have been ones dealing with the IMF, floods and the currency crisis. Had the PA stayed the course, they would have got what they wanted, more credibility as an institution in the eyes of the people with the fake realization that civilian govts can't save Pak, only the army can. I had pointed this out at the time they removed Niazi, the PA doing a good job shooting their own foot. All that military training put to good use I suppose.
I told the PDuffers back in 2016-17 that their pet CPEC will fail the moment the first unaffordable bill comes calling by 2022. You combine all this PA-led drama with their economic problems, which are very serious, it's no wonder the Pakistanis are pissed at the PA.
Of course, the PA is still all powerful and have quite a lot of credibility today, but that's gonna erode with time. Especially as the PA slowly starts radicalizing from the bottom. It's gonna get way worse for them if they don't fix their economy, 'cause in the end it all comes down to the economy. I doubt they can though.