Things that India can do better than 2019
Manage the information space better
Pak went on the offensive from day 1 with the Balakot killed crows and trees narrative, IAF could not release photos of the BDA for a few days allowing Pak to run wild.
The whole Doosra banda mess. The scoop hungry media picked up the Shahaz ud Din BS intentionally peddled by Pak and it led to India losing the plot. This lesson hasnt been learnt, evident from the shit heads who went overboard sharing the Chinese Galwan casualty list which perversely had feminine names in it.
Indian armed forces long used to selectively releasing information to media in press conferences need to recognize the digital space as yet another battlefield where they need to wage war - an information war if they are to prevail in this new paradigm.
Manage the Indian population
One battle into the conflict, our population started candle marches for peace and Abhinandan's safe return showing the govt the public had no intention or stomach for a proper conflict. No govt can wage a respectable war if its civil population isn't interested.
Have a better control on the escalation matrix
An unpopular opinion which is going to make people uncomfortable and earn me brickbats. India has been hitting back for a long time. Only the govts of the day chose to keep those actions under the wraps to contain the fallout. Leaderji's first real action on Pak in 2016 which was publicised as a "Surgical Strike" while really being a cross border raid that killed a few terrorists / Pakistanis but did not meet any real goals.
Pak was able to downplay the hit and therefore chose to not publicly react.
After Balakot, India used the IAF to bomb PoK forcing Pak's hand. Pak's response - Op Swift Retort was a preplanned op, where PAF threw everything except the kitchen sink at India to make a rhetorical point. Both sides decided to call it a day since neither side had the heart for a real conflict. Both sides went on the overdrive claiming victory while in reality both sides had lost
India had effectively flushed the Nuke deterrence peddled by Pak down the toilet. Pak had saved face by managing to match India strike for strike.
Neither side met their stated objectives. India did not deter further terror attacks. Pak wasnt able to scare off India.
The only achievement of both sides was kicking the can down the road. Which brings us to 2025.
Pak's list of grievances is long - Unknown gunmen, the Train hijack in Balochistan where service members were identified and killed were blamed on India. Its the easy way out for Pak which doesnt want to accept responsibility for the hot mess it has made in Balochistan.
Asim Munir facing internal strife and a weakening support base took a Hail Mary and bet the collective future of the Jernails / Fauji group on a pair of fives.
Now both sides find themselves at crossroads. For their own reasons, both sides have chosen their paths and now find themselves riding a tiger they cant get off.
India's ruling party long projecting a strongman image can ill afford to back down. Pak Army long projecting itself as the sole guardian of Pakistan can ill afford to look weak especially after chickening out during the 370 episode.
Both sides have chosen to publicize actions that should have been kept under the wraps to allow additional maneuvering room. In doing so they have lowered the threshold with each episode.
Uri - India launched a cross border raid. No biggie raids happened before. But this raid was publicly announced and celebrated. Pak was reduced to disputing the impact and claiming it was a minor event.
Pulwama - India launched air strikes. Pak already unhappy at its deterrence being eroded launched counter strike using a mission that was preplanned and gamed. But eager to avoid a showdown chose to dilute the impact and drop duds on empty ground. The wildcard was the MiG-21 F-16 clash whose outcome depends on the flag the reader supports.
This brings us to Pahalgam. The Indian public expects meaningful action - something that addresses the complaints of 2019. Pak wants to address the massive beating the Pak army image has taken in the recent times. Neither side has any room for concessions.
Bottom line - With every public action, the threshold for a conflict gets lower. Like a stock being traded on the market where the shareholders expect not just a profit but a percentage increase on the profit from the previous financial year, the voters expect stronger action than the one offered on the previous flashpoint.
So far the GoI has managed to keep the pressure at bay while it works on its options. What will ultimately decide the outcome is how well the GoI manages to keep control of the plot.
No plan survives first contact. Lets see how GoI fares post Zero Hour.
If China attacks us directly or intervenes overtly during Indo-Pak war then get ready to get nuked. We're not stupid to let this happen. Plus do that and say bye bye to your Taiwan dream along with US screwing you ever so badly with Tariff war with India fully in sync.
How an India-Pakistan nuclear war could start—and have global consequences published in 2019. "In 2025, terrorist attacked parliament killing members, India Launced attack, Pakistan used all its nuclear arsenal. India used its nuclear but reserved 100 against china"There is no need to get into a perception battle during the middle of operations. It provides the forces no advantage.
In fact, having a weaker perception in some cases benefits India. Like it has benefited Russia in Ukraine.
True that we need an interested civilian population, but it's not as important as people believe from an operations PoV. These are things that impact the West more, which hits recruitment. India does not face that complication. The govt is free to act as they want, and they impose costs within the confines of their own overall capabilities rather than go by public sentiment. The West is militarily limited by public sentiment, we are limited by diplomacy and finance. Our greater concern is global opinion.
Going back to the perception battle. If the world thinks Pakistan is able to protect itself and Pakistan pushes that message while taking a beating, it works out better for India. That was the point of giving them a way out in 2019. In our case, we have to domestically manage public perception by highlighting headline achievements, like the F-16 in 2019.
After everything is said and done, the public will simply move on to the next thing that catches their interest.
Nobody can stop a terror attack when the intention is to encourage a sharp reaction. Asim Munir wants India to attack.
Normally our best course of action would be to just do a Parakram Redux. Bring troops forward, significantly weaken Pakistan's western border, and make their operational maneuvers unaffordable. Keep up the pretense for 2 years or so and hasten the coming implosion. Win without firing a shot.
But we can't use this tactic again due to the passive response of previous administrations. So the public needs blood this time.
How an India-Pakistan nuclear war could start—and have global consequences published in 2019. "In 2025, terrorist attacked parliament killing members, India Launced attack, Pakistan used all its nuclear arsenal. India used its nuclear but reserved 100 against china"
Do anyone here believe nuclear war is possible?
Russians have reduced Su-35's clean frontal RCS to around 0.7m-1m2. So with 6 missiles, it would be around 2.5m2 at best.Now Let us analyze your data putting aside the arguments of Chinese Radar Quality.
Radar Cross section of Rafale 0.5 metes. Add 1 sq meter for weapons. It is 1.5 Sq meter. Assuming 1800 TR modules of Chinese plane, lets us see its range.
Assuming that Rafale with 1000 TR module can detect a target of 1 Sq meter from 120 K.M. So it can detect Chinese plane of say 4 Sq Meter (Most Conservative figure) from =120(4/1)^(1/4) K.M. of distance. This turns out to be 170 k.m.
Now chinese Radar with 1.8 times more Power has Detect 1 Sq, meter of target from (1.8/1)^0.25= 120X1.157X1.10=154 K.M.
This is inspite of giving lots of assumption in the favor of Chinese Plane. With Metero and Superior Spectra like EW, rafale will have far superior kill ratio in BVR.
So far as MWF is concern, Figure for detection shall come down to 140 k.m with 1.1 Sq Meter target. MWF can detect Chinese plane from 163 K.M. In this case MWF will have 23 K.M. First seen advantage. MWF will need Astra Mk2 to take advantage of its higher detection range.
As if undestroyed Pakistan is going to pay the debt? In fact Trump should ask India to destroy Pakistan so that it doesn't ask for more debt.
yes its their habit. Attack, surrender, repeat. Surrender is a part of pakistan warplan, each time they fight they break thier own record. This time they will try to surrender quickly to break their earlier record.India won't use nukes unless attacked with WMDs.
I personally find Pakistan will do the same, even if they lose a major war and the country breaks up. It's 'cause PA is capable of surviving a nuclear war, but not the backlash that will follow. Pakistan will cease to exist and most of the PA will fall into India's hands. But if Pak loses a conventional war; even if broken up, at least the PA will be allowed to go home after the dust settles, back to their newly formed countries.
Currently estimated positions of Barak batteries and S-400 squadrons.
View attachment 42690
13 MRSAM batteries (80 km) and 3 S-400 squadrons (325 km).
There are a few more holes that need to be plugged, like Bikaner and Sirsa along Pakistan, they sit within the gap between Punjab and Rajasthan. Maybe it will be done soon.
18 batteries will plug most holes. Then we will need another 12-14 batteries, which will be covered by Akash NG; Ujjain, Agra, Halwara, Ambala, Hasimara, Chabua, Bhopal etc. But it could go beyond that due to the IAF's planned expansion.
As for the S-400, you will notice there are 5 circles rather than 6. It's possible one of the two sites, either Jodhpur or Punjab, have 4 batteries instead of 2. Or we just don't know the location of the 6th one. Bareilly and Gwalior may get S-400. And maybe Awantipore in Kashmir and the last one in Assam or Gorakhpur. 9 sites, 20 batteries.
I am sure both sides have these lists.
Yes you got that right. There's no direct link between Erieye and PL 15.I'm not talking about Link 17, the connection between Erieye and the JF-17. I'm talking about Erieye's ability to provide initial tracking data followed by mid-course updates to the PL-15, so the connection between Erieye and PL-15.
For example, the Erieye's radar output needs to be compatible with the PL-15's data link protocol. This is possible for the PL-15E (can be shared if necessary), but not for the PL-15 (proprietary). Another hurdle is the Erieye's targeting data should be processed by JF-17's fire control system. So the fire control can be transferred from Erieye to the PL-15. This is also possible for the PL-15E, not the PL-15.
And when both these hurdles are crossed, the JF-17 will use the Erieye data to communicate with the PL-15E, so the JF-17 acts as a relay. There's no direct comm link between the Erieye and PL-15E.
In any case, transferring the PL-15 with the same data link and FCS terminal as what PLAAF use will make it incompatible with the JF-17 and J-10CP, so it's useless to the PAF.
agreed. Diffference is ours is deeper in the hinterland. And they are more dispersed.I am sure both sides have these lists.
Forgot the mention Link 77.Yes you got that right. There's no direct link between Erieye and PL 15.
JF 17 entire Firmware was written in Pakistan in C language.
So that can be modified in house , and things can be baked in.
Good one. Show us how much business lost for Pakistan. We are third largest aviation market.
Ok, so there's a confirmed report of Pakistan firing Fateh 1 guided mlrs on Indian positions
Good! Now paste Jhelum water flow as well!