Tbh with you and this might be an unpopular opinion but it might be a good idea to de-escalate now. China has expressed a lot of support for Pakistan and we're on our own apart from Israel, which can only provide limited support.
I'm not sure we should risk our economy over this. An economic slowdown for India will benefit China and in the long run, the US as well.
Any action against Pakistan is well within our ability to afford. They don't have the ability to fight us on the ground. At the current pace, they can fight in the air for now, but not for long. Naturally their navy is not up to par.
We have the drop on Pakistan and China. With operations already ongoing against Pakistan, we can deal with them long before China can engage their front. Even if they start tonight, it will take them weeks to get ready, and they will have to fight with limited air strength. They currently cannot bring their superiority in the air to bear against us; not enough ground infra, and the geography works against optimal operations of fighters.
We still have three big cards to play. An expansion of air operations. At least two major rungs of naval action on the escalation ladder, one with limited objectives, another with full force (the last thing before full-scale war). And lastly, a limited war via a ground invasion (like taking PoJK along with 15-20 km of land across the IB). Post which is the time to worry. So we are not anywhere near that.
Things are moving based on what I had said before May 7th.
We were already in the process of modernizing...Rafale & S400 deals were already signed before that point.
Unfortunately the enemy has also modernized. Not to the same level, yes - but enough that the decisive advantage we thought we'd have isn't so decisive anymore.
We did not change our plans after 2019, which means we were already on the right track. The only real change was buying Russian AAMs as stopgap.
What changed things was Galwan. And we made massive purchases after that and most of that's been delivered already.
Not the time or place to get into tactical...
Army cannot do anything big without maneuvering on the field, they can only operate at the level of the 2016 surgical strike with just SF, but we have to take the first step for a major attack with either missile strikes or air strikes.
We gotta start with a "non-military" strike on terrorist camps and wait for Pak to escalate, like we did with Balakot.
If we wanna start small and allow Pak to escalate, it's possible. But the attacks have to be publicly verifiable.
This will be a “limited war” — but I don’t think Indian administration/army controls that.
Given the buildup on both sides, we will see kinetic action - it’s matter of when and not if.
The onus will then be on Pakistan - how it wants to play the game! With IWT in abeyance, there will be pressure on Pak mil as well to fight. So any escalation - whether it’s nature of retaliation or choice of targets which can “actually” hurt India will see India climbing the escalation ladder. If India backs down again, it will be seen as loss of face in India and Modi will have to pay a huge...
I think Pakistan will be forced to retaliate until the IN makes their move, and things will stop after that as their very survival is put at risk at that point.
The more I see this, the more it looks like India forcing Pakistan’s hands. The first strike will come from Pakistan, more like India will make Pakistan strike first, the reason - could be anything, but exercises till middle of May makes no sense otherwise.
Those exercises are meant to keep PLAAF away from their prying eyes. It gives us the excuse necessary to use EW.
I think we will start the same as usual, a ground operation or an air strike against terrorist hotbeds and allow Pak to escalate things on their own.
I think we will start the same as usual, a ground operation or an air strike against terrorist hotbeds and allow Pak to escalate things on their own.
Everything is happening as per my post on Apr 27th.
Ignorants, calm down, will ya? The wumao and mamu make more sense than you do.
We have plenty of enemies in the world. They will use any excuse they can in order to paint India as the aggressor. Even if we are not punished for it today, it will be used against us whenever they desire, or simply use our own logic against us when they do it. It will set a precedent.
There are plenty of terrorist targets all over the place, like locations in Muridke, Bhawalpur etc. We are gonna attack one/some of those and wait for the Pakistanis to escalate on their own.
When it comes to large actions...
Ignorants, calm down, will ya? The wumao and mamu make more sense than you do.
We have plenty of enemies in the world. They will use any excuse they can in order to paint India as the aggressor. Even if we are not punished for it today, it will be used against us whenever they desire, or simply use our own logic against us when they do it. It will set a precedent.
There are plenty of terrorist targets all over the place, like locations in Muridke, Bhawalpur etc. We are gonna attack one/some of those and wait for the Pakistanis to escalate on their own.
When it comes to large actions, the air force will be the first to act. Then comes a small naval attack at critical infra. Then comes the army's forays into Pakistan supported by the air force, leading to a limited war. And the navy will be the last to act in a big way before the last rung of the ladder takes us to a full-fledged war.
When the navy steps in, in a big way, the intention will be the destruction of Pakistan as a state.
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My guess is after limited naval action (military targets) and a limited ground invasion, we will announce a ceasefire.
So we can keep going until the navy steps in for a full-scale war, which means up next is a proper ground invasion meant to permanently take Pakistan out. Things can go nuclear at this point, but there's no guarantee of things stopping before that.
Think about it this way. If the Pakistanis do not know when to stop, then a month from now pretty much all of them will disappear.