Nuclear MAD Scenario and possible effects in Indo Pak China context

[Kshithij Sharma]

where? on which kind of vectors? Free fall bombs? MIRV missiles? how many?
No. India just need to show it can inflict hard hits, and 200 warheads are enough.

Chemical weapons during WW2? where? only japan use it against prisonners and civilian, in low qty.
Napalm? OK, but not a decisiv weapon. Even in Vietnam, in another scale, it was not devisiv.

You definitively can't compare a classical weapon (bigger classical bomb is a 20 tons TNT one) with a "classical" thermonuclear one (150000 to 1 million tons of TNT).

There is a big difference between the Qty of natural Uranium you have, and the Qty of military grade you have ! It's even harder with plutonium.

I can only say that 1 ton of Natural Uranium has 7.1kg of U235 and can be made into 6kg of Pu239 by CANDU (PHWR) power plants. It is universal even for Pakistan, Russia or USA. The CANDU reactors use natural uranum without enrichment. At the end, the fissile material has 0.24% U235, 0.4% Plutonium and rest U238 and by products by weight. Initially, U235 is 0.71% by weight. So, if this 0.24% U235 is recycled by enrichment to 0.71% and reused with other natural Uranium, the total yield for 7.1kg U235 (0.71% of 1 ton) will be 6kg of plutonium.

If the reactor fuel is replaced quickly, the plutonium will mostly remain as Pu239 and won't become Pu240. Even if the Pu240 occurs, it will still be fissionable but need more quantity of fuel. The quantity of Uranium and military grade is different. I am saying that it is possible for India to extract Uranium in large quantity henceforth to stockpile bombs.

Chemical weapons were used in WW2. japan used it extensively in China. Also, USA used Napalm to burn down japanese cities which were made of wooden buildings. Napalm was decisive in Japan as over hundred thousand died in a single night of Napalm bombing Tokyo which was more than people dead in Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined. Again, Nuclear bomb was more effective due to Japanese cities were wooden.

Using 200 bombs serves no purpose. No on uses bombs and then waits for enemy to strike back. Also, there is a long standing grudge. The enemy is extremely crazy and can never learn. There is no way a mere show of strength going to influence anything. There is no scope for reasoning left at all.

 

[Bharath]

Based on the quantity of uranium we have that is probably how many we can make. There is no source for that number. I searched a lot for it.

We have over 2 lakh tons of uranium. We have extracted a few thousand tons already. Per ton uranium, we can get 6 kg of plutonium if all U235 is exhausted by repetitive cycling and enrichment of fuel.

there is a difference between what we "can" make vs what we already "have" made.
its not just making the bombs, its also storage, security , making sure it doesnt fall into the wrong hands.
currently we have a fuel problem for our nuclear reactors as well.
considering all the above facts, we only need enough to pose a threat of destruction.

if there is no source for this claim, kindly refrain from saying India has this number of Nuclear war heads. You can say India has the potential to make 2000 war heads. in that regards, other countries have the potential to make thousands too.

 

[Kshithij Sharma]

there is a difference between what we "can" make vs what we already "have" made.
its not just making the bombs, its also storage, security , making sure it doesnt fall into the wrong hands.
currently we have a fuel problem for our nuclear reactors as well.
considering all the above facts, we only need enough to pose a threat of destruction.

if there is no source for this claim, kindly refrain from saying India has this number of Nuclear war heads. You can say India has the potential to make 2000 war heads. in that regards, other countries have the potential to make thousands too.

India has no shortage of Uranium after Modi came. In 2015, 1.2 tons of Uranium was mined.

'India Is Uranium-Rich Country': Nuclear Chief Dr Sekhar Basu

India registers record production of nuclear fuel

Let us not go into the hoax of uranium shortage. UPA gave away Indian reactor to international supervision to scuttle nuclear weapons manufacturing. It is unfortunate that you can't see hard facts and behave in a short sighted and aimless manner.

Storage is also not a big deal. If we can store 100, we can store 2000. Now, it may not be in warheads. But, there is enough plutonium "readily available" to make that many warheads as and when needed. India needs more testing for completing designs.

 

[Bon Plan]

USA used Napalm to burn down japanese cities which were made of wooden buildings. Napalm was decisive in Japan as over hundred thousand died in a single night of Napalm bombing Tokyo which was more than people dead in Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined. Again, Nuclear bomb was more effective due to Japanese cities were wooden.

I don't think so.
Napalm was mainly used in europe, few against japan cities. You are confusing with incendiaries bombs.
1st use of Napalm bombs was against Kobe, in february 1945, late after Tokyo.

When you see concrete buildings falling appart with earth cakes, don't imagine they can resist to a megaton bomb. Hroshima and Nagasaki were bombed by 15-20kt yield range weapons. Mosquitoes nuclear bombs !

 

[Paro]

there is a difference between what we "can" make vs what we already "have" made.
its not just making the bombs, its also storage, security , making sure it doesnt fall into the wrong hands.
currently we have a fuel problem for our nuclear reactors as well.
considering all the above facts, we only need enough to pose a threat of destruction.

if there is no source for this claim, kindly refrain from saying India has this number of Nuclear war heads. You can say India has the potential to make 2000 war heads. in that regards, other countries have the potential to make thousands too.

I did mention CAN.

 

[Bharath]

India has 2000 nukes already, if not more. Pakistan also has more than 120 nukes. It is about 300-400.

I did mention CAN.

was pointing my comment at @Kshithij Sharma.

there are no reliable sources that say India has 2000 nukes already. India has the "capability" to have that many. but in that case, Pakistan has capability as well (given the close buddies they have in China).

 

[Kshithij Sharma]

was pointing my comment at @Kshithij Sharma.

there are no reliable sources that say India has 2000 nukes already. India has the "capability" to have that many. but in that case, Pakistan has capability as well (given the close buddies they have in China).

Don't cite relationships with china. China doesn't provide plutonium to Pakistan. None gives nuclear weapons directly. China may give nuclear umbrella, not direct nukes. Once given, it can't be taken back even if they backstab.

Yes, according to some analysis, India has 15 tons of plutonium. Though many call it as reactor grade, it is unlikely as nuclear power was never considered as meaningful by India and instead the focus was weapons.

I am not saying that India has weaponised them yet. But I am saying that there is capabilities to make it at moment's notice. As if now, India needs a testing of its weapons and hence not feasible to make nuclear weapons in large quantity

 

[Bon Plan]

Don't cite relationships with china. China doesn't provide plutonium to Pakistan. None gives nuclear weapons directly. China may give nuclear umbrella, not direct nukes. Once given, it can't be taken back even if they backstab.

Yes, according to some analysis, India has 15 tons of plutonium. Though many call it as reactor grade, it is unlikely as nuclear power was never considered as meaningful by India and instead the focus was weapons.

I am not saying that India has weaponised them yet. But I am saying that there is capabilities to make it at moment's notice. As if now, India needs a testing of its weapons and hence not feasible to make nuclear weapons in large quantity

We can suppose that China helped directly or indirectly North Korea and Pakistan. Those are two close ally.
Sur they didn't delivered warheads, but fissile material is less sure. and some know how probably.

 

[Kshithij Sharma]

We can suppose that China helped directly or indirectly North Korea and Pakistan. Those are two close ally.
Sur they didn't delivered warheads, but fissile material is less sure. and some know how probably.

AQ Khan stole the blue prints from EU country which was US ally. Again, the nuclear bob was invented in 1940s when the technology was pretty bad. Even a defent assault rifle was not available before WW2. So, with modern technology, making a nuclear weapon shouldn't be a big deal.

I am not sure about North Korea.

 

[Shajida Khan]

I have checked. The yield only generates shockwave which most modern buildings can withstand. I am also speaking of pigs test in H-bomb.

The cyclone in florida was thousand times stronger than the H-bomb. Also, missile launch can be detected and people can get 1 hour advanced warning

Wonderful!
Lets see just...
NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein
One single 45 Kilo Tonne weapon (already tested by our enemies) on New Delhi will yield about 350 thousand deaths instantaneously and more than 1.25 million badly injured. This is one bomb only.
20 such weapons will leave around 7 million dead instantaneously. And 25 million badly injured with no hope of any medical attention.

For a reference, combined casuality of world war 1 is though to be around 16-17 million people. This many will die in just less than a week perhaps with 7 million dead in even before they can scream. And thats just 20 weapons. I dont want to even think what will happen if 50 or 80 such weapons hit us. And lets not even talk about the optimal sized weapons, those around 200-300 Kilo tonne yield which China wields.

BTW, time of flight between somewhere in Balochistan and Mumbai is somewhere between 8 minutes or so and solid fueled missiles do not need hours of prep-up time.

Oh, a certain world trade building came crashing down by hit of two planes and we are saying that our buildings in India will withstand shockwaves and heat from a nuclear blast? Thats beyond funny, its depressing!

BTW, in Hiroshima and Nagasaki with 'just' 20 Kilotonne bomb, people literally vaporized. I mean there are just shadows of their bodies left on pavements where they were standing because rest of the pavement got glazed.

 

[Kshithij Sharma]

Wonderful!
Lets see just...
NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein
One single 45 Kilo Tonne weapon (already tested by our enemies) on New Delhi will yield about 350 thousand deaths instantaneously and more than 1.25 million badly injured. This is one bomb only.
20 such weapons will leave around 7 million dead instantaneously. And 25 million badly injured with no hope of any medical attention.

For a reference, combined casuality of world war 1 is though to be around 16-17 million people. This many will die in just less than a week perhaps with 7 million dead in even before they can scream. And thats just 20 weapons. I dont want to even think what will happen if 50 or 80 such weapons hit us. And lets not even talk about the optimal sized weapons, those around 200-300 Kilo tonne yield which China wields.

BTW, time of flight between somewhere in Balochistan and Mumbai is somewhere between 8 minutes or so and solid fueled missiles do not need hours of prep-up time.

Oh, a certain world trade building came crashing down by hit of two planes and we are saying that our buildings in India will withstand shockwaves and heat from a nuclear blast? Thats beyond funny, its depressing!

BTW, in Hiroshima and Nagasaki with 'just' 20 Kilotonne bomb, people literally vaporized. I mean there are just shadows of their bodies left on pavements where they were standing because rest of the pavement got glazed.

View attachment 1622

Refer to the videos in this comment of mine:

Nuclear effect videos:
5Men directly under 2kT bomb at 3km.

Chinese exposed to nuclear radiation:

Pigs survive direct Hydrogen bomb strike:

Testing of nuclear bombs on animals:

Nuclear test on monkeys:

Why simply make foolish assumptions that nuclear bomb will destroy everything? Who told you that 6-8 nukes will destroy Pakistan? It will need at least 5000 nuclear bombs to destroy military bases and cause large destruction on the cities of Pakistan. Even then ground invasion will be needed

The pigs survived the nuclear blast. Why would you expect humans would vaporise? Pigs are also organic matter. The nuclear bombs don't actually cause as much damage as expected. Japan suffered more from Tokyo bombings where more people died in 1 single night than the people who died in both nuclear bombs combined. The missiles will be detected in early stage and warning issued about 5-10 minutes before hand. People are also not expected to stand out waiting for fireworks. People generally stay inside office, homes etc and an additional warning will make people run into any nearby concrete structure immediately. Japanese houses were wooden houses which collapsed on people and killed them. concrete houses unless skyscrapers, won't collapse that way.


Nuclear bombs will cause more damage than ordinary bombs to economic infrastructure but people are not vaporised. Also, the big buildings are easily destroyed as they are inherently less resilient. The smaller buildings - 2floors or less are more resilient and will survive blasts. Moreover, there is a difference in external blast to internal blasts. Even a smaller bomb struck inside a structure will have more effect than one that detonated outside. Skyscrapers and wooden houses are bad places to be but india has very few of them except in a few places. Any well built RCC house with a maximum of 2 floors should be able to withstand nuclear blast wave.

 

[Bon Plan]

So, with modern technology, making a nuclear weapon shouldn't be a big deal.

The harder now is to produce plutonium in a high grade, without making publicity.

 

[Shajida Khan]

Refer to the videos in this comment of mine:



The pigs survived the nuclear blast. Why would you expect humans would vaporise? Pigs are also organic matter. The nuclear bombs don't actually cause as much damage as expected. Japan suffered more from Tokyo bombings where more people died in 1 single night than the people who died in both nuclear bombs combined. The missiles will be detected in early stage and warning issued about 5-10 minutes before hand. People are also not expected to stand out waiting for fireworks. People generally stay inside office, homes etc and an additional warning will make people run into any nearby concrete structure immediately. Japanese houses were wooden houses which collapsed on people and killed them. concrete houses unless skyscrapers, won't collapse that way.


Nuclear bombs will cause more damage than ordinary bombs to economic infrastructure but people are not vaporised. Also, the big buildings are easily destroyed as they are inherently less resilient. The smaller buildings - 2floors or less are more resilient and will survive blasts. Moreover, there is a difference in external blast to internal blasts. Even a smaller bomb struck inside a structure will have more effect than one that detonated outside. Skyscrapers and wooden houses are bad places to be but india has very few of them except in a few places. Any well built RCC house with a maximum of 2 floors should be able to withstand nuclear blast wave.

The temperature reached in fireball of a nuclear weapon is about 5000 Kelvin. Iron vaporizes at around 3000 Kelvin. Yes, people will be vaporized near ground zero/with in fireball.

The shockwave of a nuclear bomb will cause a static over pressure in excess of 40 psi, enough to blow up anything. A person caugth in it will be shredded to pieces.

BTW, the worst part is even though you might know it about 3-4 minutes before it hits you, you won't be able to do anything. If you are out abd about. Your enemy may choose the time with maximum people will be out.

 

[Shajida Khan]

AQ Khan stole the blue prints from EU country which was US ally. Again, the nuclear bob was invented in 1940s when the technology was pretty bad. Even a defent assault rifle was not available before WW2. So, with modern technology, making a nuclear weapon shouldn't be a big deal.

I am not sure about North Korea.

It is not. Only hard part is getting enriched fuel. Which will be impossible for most.

 

[Kshithij Sharma]

The harder now is to produce plutonium in a high grade, without making publicity.

USA had a war in Afghanistan during 1977-1990 and hence turned a blind eye towards Pakistani project. Also, publicity or not, North Korea managed to get nuclear bombs.

 

[Kshithij Sharma]

It is not. Only hard part is getting enriched fuel. Which will be impossible for most.

The 5000K lasts for 2 seconds at most and hence be easily avoided by hiding behind even a sheet of steel. 2 seconds of heat is not going to do much. That is why I showed the pigs being hit by hydrogen bomb at close distance.

The nuclear bomb has limited blast radius where the fireball hits. Yes, the areas at a few hundred metres radius o the blast will get seriously hit but the millions of damage you are claiming is bogus.

For example, the area of delhi is 1500 sq km. It has population of 1.5-2 crore. The density goes to about 10-13k people per sq km. So, a hit by 1 nuclear bomb with fire radius of 700m (100kT) will cover an area of 1.5sq km an hence kill 20000 thousand people from fireball and another 30000 thousand people from blast wave and injure another 50000 seriously on an average.

Humans are very resilient and can survive blast waves by itself. This has been proven as in case of many tests done by scientists to check human resilience to hurricanes. The blast wave is dangerous only if it makes structures crash and debris to fall on people.

 

[vstol Jockey]

Watch this video. On another forum, I had told you guys that in 1986/87 Operation Brasstacks, USA fooled Rajiv gandhi into believing that Pakistan has nukes while Indian intelligence has very clearly told him that Pakistan does not have them. Rajiv was a fool who went with what USA told him and decided against war with Pakistan. The pakistani bluff worked and the net reult was increased terrorism in India.

 

[Shashank]

Cross Post

India gearing up for WW3 with NUKE MISSILE launch

The country’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC) test-fired the Agni-1 short-range ballistic missile at a target in the Bay of Bengal. on Tuesday.
A SFC spokesman said: “The trajectory of the trial was tracked by a battery of sophisticated riders, telemetry observation stations, elects-optic instruments and naval ships right from its launch till the missile hit the target with pinpoint accuracy.”
Named after the Vedic god of fire, the missile can carry a warhead as heavy as 5,500 pounds and travel 560 miles.
It comes just weeks after an earlier ICBM test that proved India could destroy targets in nearby China and Pakistan.
The dramatic test will likely be seen as a threat by hated-rival Pakistan.

Relations between the two countries have plummeted as both sides continue to push their claims on Kashmir.
It could also be seen as a direct warning to China, which has contested land in Bhutan, an ally of India.
Last month, Chinese troops advanced on Doklam – raising fears that Beijing was preparing a full-scale invasion.
Images showed concrete posts, seven helipads and several dozen armoured vehicles close to the point where the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army were locked in a 72-day confrontation last year.

India has said their troops will step in if it feels the Chinese Army is trying to disrupt the “status quo”.
Army chief General Bipin Rawat said: “The PLA soldiers are there in a part of the area, although not in the numbers that we them initially.
“They have carried out some infrastructure development which is mostly temporary in nature.
“But we are also there. So, in case they come, we will face them.”

Source : India gearing up for WW3 with NUKE MISSILE launch

 

[zeno]

does anyone else think india is hiding a serious number of nuclear warheads ?

 

[vstol Jockey]

This entire Gandhi-Nehra clan has been a Panouti and bad omen for India. Every member of this family who have ruled India have only created more problems for India. Starting with gandhi-the stooge of British who thrust upon us Nehru. Than Nehru as PM created Kashmir problem and China problem by even refusing a security councli seat. Than Indira who failed to solve Kashmir in 1972 even after a thumping military victory and finally Rajiv who let go a golden opportunity to dismantle Pakistan in 1986/87 by calling off Operation Brasstacks.