Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajastan and Madhya Pradesh : Political Discussions

What a stunner on saturday morning. Thackray will now be weeping in his bed for having finished SS forever. This effectively ensures that in all future elections, it will be a multicornered contest with SS one of the parties without tie ups.
 
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vstol Jockey said:
What a stunner on saturday morning. Thackray will now be weeping in his bed for having finished SS forever. This effectively ensures that in all future elections, it will be a multicornered contest with SS one of the parties without tie ups.
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You can't rule out a tie up with the SS a year down the line like what happened in Bihar. But before that the NCP BJP combination will try & bring down the SS in all local body elections. The election for the post of the Mayor in Bombay is next week. It'd be a very interesting contest. Remember, most of the SS clout comes from the money they've made in BMC NMMC, KDMC & TMC MBMC i.e Bombay, Navi Mumbai, Kalyan Dombivali, Thane & Mira Bhayandar Municipal Corporations.
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
You can't rule out a tie up with the SS a year down the line like what happened in Bihar. But before that the NCP BJP combination will try & bring down the SS in all local body elections. The election for the post of the Mayor in Bombay is next week. It'd be a very interesting contest. Remember, most of the SS clout comes from the money they've made in BMC NMMC, KDMC & TMC MBMC i.e Bombay, Navi Mumbai, Kalyan Dombivali, Thane & Mira Bhayandar Municipal Corporations.
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Does AJit Pawar have the numbers to make the defection successful....
 
S. A. T. A said:
Does AJit Pawar have the numbers to make the defection successful....
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I believe he does. Look, if you think he's pulled off a palace coup against Sharad Pawar, you don't know Sharad Pawar. If the SS didn't do what they did, Modi Shah & Phadnavis were set to finish off the Pawar & consequently the NCP. They've built up a strong case against them. Why do you think after sewing up the NCP SS Congress alliance, the NCP did what they did. More than the received wisdom of Lutyens media which suggested that the SS was fighting for its political survival, it was actually the freedom & money of the Pawars & their cronies which was as stake.
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
I believe he does. Look, if you think he's pulled off a palace coup against Sharad Pawar, you don't know Sharad Pawar. If the SS didn't do what they did, Modi Shah & Phadnavis were set to finish off the Pawar & consequently the NCP. They've built up a strong case against them. Why do you think after sewing up the NCP SS Congress alliance, the NCP did what they did. More than the received wisdom of Lutyens media which suggested that the SS was fighting for its political survival, it was actually the freedom & money of the Pawars & their cronies which was as stake.
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No doubt Ajit had to worry about the ED inquiries. So do you beleive Ajit pulled this off without the knowledge and covert support of Sharad pawar. Form the Press meet it appears Sharad Pawar was surprised, but putting up a strong fight.
 
_Anonymous_ said:
I believe he does. Look, if you think he's pulled off a palace coup against Sharad Pawar, you don't know Sharad Pawar. If the SS didn't do what they did, Modi Shah & Phadnavis were set to finish off the Pawar & consequently the NCP. They've built up a strong case against them. Why do you think after sewing up the NCP SS Congress alliance, the NCP did what they did. More than the received wisdom of Lutyens media which suggested that the SS was fighting for its political survival, it was actually the freedom & money of the Pawars & their cronies which was as stake.
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I agree with you. It appears to me that this has actually been engineered by Sharad Pawar himself. He met Modi-Shah on thursday and after that on thursday night Ajit Pawar's aide met Fadnavis.
 
S. A. T. A said:
No doubt Ajit had to worry about the ED inquiries. So do you beleive Ajit pulled this off without the knowledge and covert support of Sharad pawar. Form the Press meet it appears Sharad Pawar was surprised, but putting up a strong fight.
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Without the knowledge & covert support is mutually contradictory if read a different way.

Let me elaborate. Pawar faces a legacy issue with NCP. Whom does he anoint his heir? On the one hand there's the corrupt arrogant but widely accepted yet resented Ajit Pawar & on the other is his inexperienced & clueless daughter Supriya Sule. Whom would he support is any ones guess. This move gives him plausible deniability . It also exposes the Venality of Ajit Pawar.

It seems Ajit Pawar has walked over with 35 MLA's. That leaves around 20 with Sharad Pawar. By doing so both factions of the NCP don't attract the provisions of the ADL. Add that to the BJP tally of 105 & you get 140. Still 5 seats short of a majority.

So how does this government prove its majority. One theory is to get the support of the 29 odd independents and smaller parties.

The other is to split the SS & orchestrate a Karnataka type coup. Get them disqualified and then re elect them.

In any event, if this government completes its tenure or there are mid term polls, both the factions of the NCP will re unite & for all you know they'd contest the future poll with the Congress.

You see much like the JD -S , they've a very strong base in Western Maharashtra & Marathwada.
 
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