Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

Amarante

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RISING SUN

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It's long, it's endless… «The general impression of the Indian side is that China is dragging its feet in demarcating the LAC on the ground» (Russia-China Boundary Agreement: Relevance for India, Jyotsna Bakshi, IDSA, 2001(!), @BMD @randomradio)

Who benefits from this slowness?
Who does this stand-off cost the most?
China benifits directly and US indirectly.

It costs India heavily & directly and Russia indirectly.
 

randomradio

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Nov 30, 2017
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Honestly, it is good for us if they move on Taiwan. But, the Chinese are smart. They will not move till the time there is some kind of lull in the Japan and India areas.

It's not good for us. A lot of Chinese exports will stop. We are still a few years away from significantly reducing our dependency in critical areas. Like, the indigenisation of API will take until 2025 as per pharma companies.

If they want to go after Taiwan, they will want peace in the Ladakh area. Let us assume, they are able to take terrirtory this time around, its a mess waiting to happen. Because, you can bet we will attack if they go after Taiwan.

Ladakh will be as is for now. From our end, we should boost capabilities and wait for them to go at Taiwan. Bide our time, while sharpening our claws.

I am going by the leaked video of a CMC meeting, one of speakers said China was definitely going to war with Taiwan. If the Ukraine war has delayed that, then great. But worst case, they can change their target to India while preparing a new blueprint for Taiwan.

At the very least, as long as the US doesn't interfere, they are capable of fighting both Taiwan and India. Also, attacking India at the same time would mean most of the global focus would be on Taiwan, allowing the Chinese an upperhand in negotiations with India.

Oct's the best time to attack Taiwan, and that's suitable for Ladakh too. So, if the PLA manage to create a lodgement in Taiwan, they could simultaneously launch an attack on India in Ladakh. And in November they can have the 20th National Congress for Xi's coronation as Winnie the Grand Poobah.

The first window was in April. But the Chinese likely backed out due to Covid, and of course Ukraine's resistance. But we could literally be just 6 months away from a global war.
 
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randomradio

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It's long, it's endless… «The general impression of the Indian side is that China is dragging its feet in demarcating the LAC on the ground» (Russia-China Boundary Agreement: Relevance for India, Jyotsna Bakshi, IDSA, 2001(!), @BMD @randomradio)

Who benefits from this slowness?
Who does this stand-off cost the most?

Benefits China of course. They changed the status quo in their favour. If they don't leave on their own, we have to make them leave, which is not a very good option for us.

The West benefits too because India is now at loggerheads with China. Taiwan benefits the most.

Our neighbours are unhappy; Nepal, BD and Bhutan. There's a fear of their territories turning into battlefields. Russia sees itself at a disadvantage too, because they hoped to pull India into their sphere with China's help.

Pakistan's probably the happiest.
 
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suryakiran

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Benefits China of course. They changed the status quo in their favour. If they don't leave on their own, we have to make them leave, which is not a very good option for us.

There is another option, but of course we will never do it. Silently occupy their territory. And then negotiate.
 
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suryakiran

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It's not good for us. A lot of Chinese exports will stop. We are still a few years away from significantly reducing our dependency in critical areas. Like, the indigenisation of API will take until 2025 as per pharma companies.



I am going by the leaked video of a CMC meeting, one of speakers said China was definitely going to war with Taiwan. If the Ukraine war has delayed that, then great. But worst case, they can change their target to India while preparing a new blueprint for Taiwan.

At the very least, as long as the US doesn't interfere, they are capable of fighting both Taiwan and India. Also, attacking India at the same time would mean most of the global focus would be on Taiwan, allowing the Chinese an upperhand in negotiations with India.

Oct's the best time to attack Taiwan, and that's suitable for Ladakh too. So, if the PLA manage to create a lodgement in Taiwan, they could simultaneously launch an attack on India in Ladakh. And in November they can have the 20th National Congress for Xi's coronation as Winnie the Grand Poobah.

The first window was in April. But the Chinese likely backed out due to Covid, and of course Ukraine's resistance. But we could literally be just 6 months away from a global war.
Attacking India is a death trap for the Chinese. The Quad will become an Asian NATO. Russia will be told to be silent by India, else they lose what little market they have left in India. Attacking India also puts Russia in a tight spot.

It also puts the Pakistanis in a spot. Any misadventure like Kargil, will mean escalation to levels they have not thought about from all countries of the Quad. Also, any attack by India on Pakistan, the Quad will not interfere. But, if China gets involved, it will be free for all.

Attacking India, all in all is a worst case scenario for China.
 

randomradio

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There is another option, but of course we will never do it. Silently occupy their territory. And then negotiate.

For the moment, we have not taken up this option.

Attacking India is a death trap for the Chinese. The Quad will become an Asian NATO. Russia will be told to be silent by India, else they lose what little market they have left in India. Attacking India also puts Russia in a tight spot.

I don't believe any of that will come to pass anytime soon. An Asian NATO under US leadership is against Indian interests. And both India and Russia have leverage over each other. Plus even they will be opposed to an Asian NATO, and of course, they don't want to get sucked into a Chinese-led alliance either. Basically, both India and Russia prefer the status quo even if both get involved in border wars.

With US-Japan and AUKUS, there's already an Asian NATO present. What they are looking for is more members? Like India and SoKo. But do you really want India to fight American wars defending SoKo, Japan or Taiwan? It's basically more responsibility at the cost of sovereignty. And losing sovereignty is serious, we can lose market access in some areas, we will have to permanently give up 20-30% of our own domestic market to the Americans and so on, basically what the US did to Japan, and that ultimately crushed them. All the castrated European countries are enough of living examples of what happens without sovereignty.

It also puts the Pakistanis in a spot. Any misadventure like Kargil, will mean escalation to levels they have not thought about from all countries of the Quad. Also, any attack by India on Pakistan, the Quad will not interfere. But, if China gets involved, it will be free for all.

Attacking India, all in all is a worst case scenario for China.

That's what we feel from our perspective, with the information we have. But they are naturally assuming they will win, which is the point of attacking us in the first place. To China, attacking Taiwan will have far worse rammifications than attacking India. Although it appears that even the Chinese have underestimated the scale of the sanctions possible, I don't see the world behaving the same way as they did with Ukraine when it comes to India. The Chinese may also prefer to rip all bandages at once. Deal with both problems together and get sanctioned only once.

What's interesting to note is that, at least on paper, the Chinese have a localised advantage in the air over the USAF at this time. With F-22s lacking range and numbers, alongside delayed modernisation, and the F-35 still WIP, and no modern AAMs, the Chinese probably think this is the best time to ensure air superiority over Taiwan.
 
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jetray

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Attacking India is a death trap for the Chinese. The Quad will become an Asian NATO. Russia will be told to be silent by India, else they lose what little market they have left in India. Attacking India also puts Russia in a tight spot.

It also puts the Pakistanis in a spot. Any misadventure like Kargil, will mean escalation to levels they have not thought about from all countries of the Quad. Also, any attack by India on Pakistan, the Quad will not interfere. But, if China gets involved, it will be free for all.

Attacking India, all in all is a worst case scenario for China.
what is ukraine to russia, India is to china in US game of geopolitics. US will continue to support pakistan as a leverage against India. Quad or US will do nothing against pakistan simply bcos it doesnt affect any of them. It would be foolish to assume that US will give away pakistan leverage so easily. A weak pakistan always benefits west as they can make them dance to their wishes.
 
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jetray

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For the moment, we have not taken up this option.



I don't believe any of that will come to pass anytime soon. An Asian NATO under US leadership is against Indian interests. And both India and Russia have leverage over each other. Plus even they will be opposed to an Asian NATO, and of course, they don't want to get sucked into a Chinese-led alliance either. Basically, both India and Russia prefer the status quo even if both get involved in border wars.

With US-Japan and AUKUS, there's already an Asian NATO present. What they are looking for is more members? Like India and SoKo. But do you really want India to fight American wars defending SoKo, Japan or Taiwan? It's basically more responsibility at the cost of sovereignty. And losing sovereignty is serious, we can lose market access in some areas, we will have to permanently give up 20-30% of our own domestic market to the Americans and so on, basically what the US did to Japan, and that ultimately crushed them. All the castrated European countries are enough of living examples of what happens without sovereignty.



That's what we feel from our perspective, with the information we have. But they are naturally assuming they will win, which is the point of attacking us in the first place. To China, attacking Taiwan will have far worse rammifications than attacking India. Although it appears that even the Chinese have underestimated the scale of the sanctions possible, I don't see the world behaving the same way as they did with Ukraine when it comes to India. The Chinese may also prefer to rip all bandages at once. Deal with both problems together and get sanctioned only once.

What's interesting to note is that, at least on paper, the Chinese have a localised advantage in the air over the USAF at this time. With F-22s lacking range and numbers, alongside delayed modernisation, and the F-35 still WIP, and no modern AAMs, the Chinese probably think this is the best time to ensure air superiority over Taiwan.
US applying sanctions on china will severely affect them, their supply chains are too tightly linked and not to mention the investments made.
US is fortunate it still has leading edge over china in chip industry. If not there is nothing which stops china from giving US the middle finger.

Chinese have nearly a trillion dollar worth of US securities which will become totally worthless if there is a war. US will simply seize that opportunity to write them off.
 
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suryakiran

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Dec 1, 2017
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what is ukraine to russia, India is to china in US game of geopolitics. US will continue to support pakistan as a leverage against India. Quad or US will do nothing against pakistan simply bcos it doesnt affect any of them. It would be foolish to assume that US will give away pakistan leverage so easily. A weak pakistan always benefits west as they can make them dance to their wishes.

I agree with most part, except the Ukraine - India. Taiwan is the Ukraine for China in my limited understanding. Japan and India are the Pakistan for China. Irritable, but nothing much can be done about it.
 

randomradio

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US applying sanctions on china will severely affect them, their supply chains are too tightly linked and not to mention the investments made.
US is fortunate it still has leading edge over china in chip industry. If not there is nothing which stops china from giving US the middle finger.

Chinese have nearly a trillion dollar worth of US securities which will become totally worthless if there is a war. US will simply seize that opportunity to write them off.

To the Chinese, Taiwan is more important than money. But yeah, the sanctions on Russia could have played a very large part in preventing an invasion.
 

Amarante

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Jun 22, 2021
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i can’t find any OS sat-imagery for Sauraj Jha’s tweet.
—-
i’ve read DS Hooda in BharatShakti. Of course, he advocates an increase in the number of sensors (from "boots on the ground" to satellites) to collect informations, and AI to merge the datas and carry out predictive analysis.

But he also calls for (…) A cohesive surveillance system (…) in which different users can take advantage of complete visibility across platforms available with all the agencies. Concluding: (…) Militaries worldwide use the term ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) to describe integrated operations and intelligence activity that enables accurate decision-making. (…) A rethink in the Indian Army on the whole concept of border management(. It) must include a unified intelligence and surveillance architecture along the LAC.


ps: as the author, Lt Gen DS Hooda (Retd) is a former Northern Command Commander, i have discovered the https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/38/Northern-Command-Indian_Army-flag.svg/640px-Northern-Command-Indian_Army-flag.svg.png ]flag[/url]: awsome!
 

BMD

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Might is right, according to @jetray and @Jaymax, so wherever China sets the line, you will have to accept it. An Asian NATO is not in India's interests, so maybe Russia will ask China to move the line for you... probably in the wrong direction but hey.