Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

randomradio

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Nov 30, 2017
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I won't be surprised if the Chinese attack us right during polls, but if we manage to get through this year, 2023 will be a pretty good time to fight China. Too bad some of our artillery programs are delayed or didn't deliver enough, but we'll survive. A lot of important stuff should get resolved by then.
 
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Paro

Bloom17
Dec 2, 2017
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I won't be surprised if the Chinese attack us right during polls, but if we manage to get through this year, 2023 will be a pretty good time to fight China. Too bad some of our artillery programs are delayed or didn't deliver enough, but we'll survive. A lot of important stuff should get resolved by then.
How? Why 2023?
 

randomradio

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Nov 30, 2017
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India

The tweet above my post says the Chinese could attack before elections, ie early 2024.

Why 2023?

When Galwan happened, I had hoped that we wouldn't fight a war at that time, only the army was ready at that point. The best year to fight was the late summer of 2023 or beyond, typically the end of 2023 (post Aug), that's when the weather and terrain become more suitable. The gap between 2020 and early 2023 will see us getting a lot of new capabilities.

The army's getting a new messaging and C&C system, new rifles, artillery (Pinaka, M777, K9, Dhanush and Sharang), infantry gear etc.
The navy's getting a new comm system, 2 destroyers, 2-4 frigates, 2 SSKs, a carrier and 1-2 more SSBNs.
The air force's getting a new comm system, 36 Rafales (with ISE), more upgraded jets, new weapons etc. Particularly SAMs, we are gonna have all S-400s operational by the end of 2022, along with the new Akash, and all MRSAMs by early 2023.

Basically, had the Chinese attacked in 2020, we would have entered the war with pretty much none of the above. The army would have done reasonably well, but the IAF and IN would have had limited options. But we would be in a very comfortable position in a mere 6 months from now, let alone 12 months.

You can see how much of a difference a mere 3 years has made.

I have been hoping for a few more tech, like the army's TCS, MPATGM and new light helicopters, a bunch of others, but it looks like it's too late for that for a 2023 deadline. Otoh, our experience with drones and lasers have been good. Years ago I had claimed that we will get lasers for air defence by 2021, and we signed our first contract last year.

Anyway I'm not expecting China to do anything for a few more years because of the Russia-Ukraine War, otherwise a three to four-year gap between their shenanigans had become par for the course. Plus 2022 is a special year for Xi, not just for our armed forces. So, post re-election, he could always start 2023 with a bang.
 

SrNair

Active member
Mar 12, 2018
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120
Kerala
The tweet above my post says the Chinese could attack before elections, ie early 2024.



When Galwan happened, I had hoped that we wouldn't fight a war at that time, only the army was ready at that point. The best year to fight was the late summer of 2023 or beyond, typically the end of 2023 (post Aug), that's when the weather and terrain become more suitable. The gap between 2020 and early 2023 will see us getting a lot of new capabilities.

The army's getting a new messaging and C&C system, new rifles, artillery (Pinaka, M777, K9, Dhanush and Sharang), infantry gear etc.
The navy's getting a new comm system, 2 destroyers, 2-4 frigates, 2 SSKs, a carrier and 1-2 more SSBNs.
The air force's getting a new comm system, 36 Rafales (with ISE), more upgraded jets, new weapons etc. Particularly SAMs, we are gonna have all S-400s operational by the end of 2022, along with the new Akash, and all MRSAMs by early 2023.

Basically, had the Chinese attacked in 2020, we would have entered the war with pretty much none of the above. The army would have done reasonably well, but the IAF and IN would have had limited options. But we would be in a very comfortable position in a mere 6 months from now, let alone 12 months.

You can see how much of a difference a mere 3 years has made.

I have been hoping for a few more tech, like the army's TCS, MPATGM and new light helicopters, a bunch of others, but it looks like it's too late for that for a 2023 deadline. Otoh, our experience with drones and lasers have been good. Years ago I had claimed that we will get lasers for air defence by 2021, and we signed our first contract last year.

Anyway I'm not expecting China to do anything for a few more years because of the Russia-Ukraine War, otherwise a three to four-year gap between their shenanigans had become par for the course. Plus 2022 is a special year for Xi, not just for our armed forces. So, post re-election, he could always start 2023 with a bang.

Xi had 62 like plans when they initiated the LAC irritation and Galwan episode .
They want to know how much the involvement of US .But turns out that India is only cares about her own interests and for that we will do anything .
And its been 2 years and Chinese perhaps not interested to drag it further .Because they can see our evolving and adaptation for new scenario.
 

randomradio

Senior Member
Nov 30, 2017
14,983
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India
Xi had 62 like plans when they initiated the LAC irritation and Galwan episode .
They want to know how much the involvement of US .But turns out that India is only cares about her own interests and for that we will do anything .
And its been 2 years and Chinese perhaps not interested to drag it further .Because they can see our evolving and adaptation for new scenario.

We can only guess what their goals were. Whatever the case it was either partially achieved or they failed. In any case, the loss of business in India was extremely damaging to them.

I just hope we don't become soft just 'cause they decided to reach out to us.
 
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_Anonymous_

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Dec 4, 2017
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Mumbai
A thaw or a warning delivered in person?

Xi Huzoor wont become all powerful if he lets India go unpunished.
Visit not confirmed. Could well be media flying a kite .

OTOH , if the visit materializes , there'd have to be some "concessions" from the Chinese which'd be more like restoration of status quo ante or near to it.

It's merely a lull before the storm. I don't think anybody in South Block would be fooled even if we restore full status quo ante .

Basically it'd boil down to who's China going after first in a few years - Taiwan or India. The west ,Japan & Taiwan would like nothing more than to make tall promises to India egging it to take on China in case of a conflict . In other words they're looking out for the Indian Zelensky who at the moment is busy sending his resignation letter to himself which he'd then reject. Too bad for them

A severe degrading of Chinese capabilities would in all probability dent it's resolve too which in turn would either buy the Allies time or in case China still decides to go ahead with Project Taiwan , China'd be in a much more vulnerable state. Whereas India'd prefer , the Chinese focus on Taiwan.
 
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_Anonymous_

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Dec 4, 2017
17,337
13,260
Mumbai
@Jaymax

Guess nothing's going to come about on the LAC . So why the visit ? Good question. Looks like India's hedging . With the kind of patronising & other statements bordering on threats coming out of the west particularly US , subtle & not so subtle messages are being sent. Great Game is on except there are multiple players in Version 2.00 & the stakes are sky high.
 

STEPHEN COHEN

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Dec 4, 2017
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@Jaymax

Guess nothing's going to come about on the LAC . So why the visit ? Good question. Looks like India's hedging . With the kind of patronising & other statements bordering on threats coming out of the west particularly US , subtle & not so subtle messages are being sent. Great Game is on except there are multiple players in Version 2.00 & the stakes are sky high.

We should ask them to Publically Speak about Converting LOC to IB ,ie in addition to LAC withdrawal

Let Pakistanis burn