Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

RISING SUN

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Didnt the Army issue a denial on this one?
The denial preceded the offending article out here. So thought of providing reference to context. Hence posted it.
The Army said it has been monitoring activities by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) including turnover of troops in the region. The Army made the comments as part of a statement trashing a media report that said the Chinese military has again crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh at several places and that there has been at least one incident of clash between the two sides.
 

Jaymax

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The Army said it has been monitoring activities by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) including turnover of troops in the region. The Army made the comments as part of a statement trashing a media report that said the Chinese military has again crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh at several places and that there has been at least one incident of clash between the two sides.

Just food for thought - Last time Shukla was abused and ridiculed too and then we found there was some substance in his report.
 

RISING SUN

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Just food for thought - Last time Shukla was abused and ridiculed too and then we found there was some substance in his report.
If one throws lot, something gets stuck somehow, doesn't prove if it's sticky or it's non-sticky.
 
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STEPHEN COHEN

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Both CDS and COAS today were at Pakistan border reviewing Operational Preparedness

That shows the Two Front Threat that is getting bigger

While Crooks like Shukla do a hit job with paid articles
 

_Anonymous_

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IMG_20210716_201257.jpg


Ravi Rikhye has finally gone ballistic. Read more on his responses in FB. @Jaymax
 

Ashwin

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The report in Business Standard states that Chinese troops have again crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh at several places and that there has been at least one clash between the two sides on the Galwan River. This was reiterated by the author of the report in a video interview. The Indian Army released a statement refuting the report published in the Business Standard. It was a very unambiguous rebuttal. There has been a lot of hue and cry about the whole issue. However I was taken aback at the malfeasance and rhetoric in the social media about the author, his credentials and intent. What I did not see was an analysis to suggest if it was probable that the incident took place or not. That is what I am doing so now from first principles. I will highlight it with an example of my own experience two decades ago.



I had just taken over command of my unit and had moved it to the eastern sector. Our permanent location was in the Siliguri corridor and our operational area was the Muguthang valley adjacent to the Giagong Plateau. My commander, after the initial formalities and settling in period ordered me to hoof it up to the op area with a suitable team for familiarisation. We shortly did that and parked ourselves at the Lachen transit camp for acclimatisation. During the next one week we acclimatised and carried out our tasks. At that time my course mate was commanding the battalion on the Plateau. He called me over for lunch one day to bat the breeze before I left the place for my base. I didn't miss that offer. On the last day of our familiarisation, we drove up to the Plateau. On arrival at the battalion headquarters, I found my friend a little busy. He was in conversation with the brigade and divisional staff. Once he finished with them, he told me that there had been a small incident on the LAC the previous day. We drove up to the post where the incident took place. The post overlooked the Tibetan Plateau and that was a great sight for sore eyes.



The previous day a PLA patrol led by a cocky young officer had come up to the LAC. He was trying to kick down the cairns which defined the border. Incidentally, the Indo Tibet border is actually a settled border and demarcated by cairns where feasible. Now our boys objected to it. There was a wee bit of chat in Chinese and Bihari. The cocky young officer was trying to be aggressive. That was when the JCO deliberately and coolly cocked the LMG in the post which was overlooking this cairn. That settled the argument. Immediately the situation was diffused and the PLA patrol went on its way. Soon after the incident, the matter was reported. The JCO narrated the whole incident to me with pride. I shook hands with the JCO and the rest of the post members warmly in front of his CO and SM. They were chuffed. The CO and I went back , had lunch at his mess and recounted our NDA days. Then I set course back to the transit camp.



The moment I got back to the transit camp, there were calls from the divisional staff. The GOC wanted my version of the incident as I understood it. I gave it to them and had a detailed talk with the Col GS. Next day morning I left the transit camp back to my base. The moment I reached the unit, my own divisional staff was on line. They asked me to file a report. Which I did immediately. Next day the corps staff was also inquiring. For the next few days everyone wanted to know what happened. The word of the incident had got around. Why am I telling you this story from over 22 years back? It was a small inconsequential incident. However it was widely reported. Its veracity was being checked at all levels since an independent double check was available. Taking cue from this, I would say that the chances of an incident or a clash occurring between PLA and Indian Army in Easter Ladakh and not being reported or coming to light is pretty remote. If it had been reported, it would have come out eventually.



The next thing is that in the Indian Army, whenever an operational occurrence takes place, a sitrep would have been initiated. In the case of such a purported clash, a special sitrep would have been initiated by the unit. The sitrep is important for many reasons. That is the fundamental document for any further operational action or response. That is also an important document for recompensing any causality or recognising bravery. It is a legal document admissible in court. No CO will or can ever hide such an incident by not reporting it. If it is once reported, it goes all the way to the top and laterally. Such incidents can escalate and hence all should and would have been put on alert. Once it travels up the chain, there is enough transparency to force itself to be made public. Also with a plethora of agencies and forces operating in that area any incident of such nature would have leaked out completely. This is not a friendly high altitude football match taking place between PLA and Indian Army. Taking the past experience and the current normal practice into consideration, I find it highly improbable that such a clash took place and was not reported or brought into public view. There are international ramifications when such an incident takes place. No government can hide such an incident. It might be too costly for it. We are in a democracy and not in an authoritarian system like China.



Well the Chinese Army can say one thing and do another. Not the Indian Army. In any case the Indian Army has put out in clear terms that such a clash did not take place. Taking all aspects into consideration, it is my considered opinion, that the report in the Business Standard about the clash is not exactly correct. However, it is likely, that some kind of a ‘tu tu main main’ could have happened. Maybe a couple of mavericks on either side might have made ugly faces at each other. Afterall we are in tinderbox situation on the LAC. Also it is not an ‘All Saints Game’ going on out there. Events do occur on the LAC. We should take cognizance of serious events if and when they occur.



Now coming to the report by Business Standard and the reactions thereof. We are in a democracy, every reporter has the right to file in an article based on his sources and if he is convinced it is true. To that extent, the report is OK. The author is part of a democratic system. We need to tolerate and even respect his views. However, I feel that the author could have based his report on better diligence and avoided exaggerating the issues. I am not too perturbed that the report does not toe the official line or expectation or if it has political overtones. Is that not par for the course for a vibrant democracy like India? We do not need all reporters and media to ape to be the ‘Global Times’ of India! One can understand that the Indian Army is miffed and its reaction indicates so. However this would not have happened if it had a method of regular briefings on issues to keep the public in the loop of happenings. What I do not understand and I do not agree with is the vitriolic reaction within the veteran community. It cannot be a situation that anyone who is not with us is against us. We should have the wisdom to analyse such reports and present a balanced view so that those who trust us get to an unbiased expert view based on experience and logic. They should get exactly that
 

_Anonymous_

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Everything he said is true. We don’t have a coherent policy or the political will to deter them.
Unfortunately , he's probably the only one in the public domain who first predicted the Chinese would attempt something like what they did last summer close to 1.5-2 decades from today .

He further predicted they'd follow it up with a full scale invasion after that event in a couple of years . The only thing he got awry was the time lines. This was supposed to occur mid 2020's onwards . Now he's modified the 2nd part of his prediction . Our response all through has been exactly as he's described it . That's the reason for his despair , immense frustration & dire prediction.
 

Paro

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Unfortunately , he's probably the only one in the public domain who first predicted the Chinese would attempt something like what they did last summer close to 1.5-2 decades from today .

He further predicted they'd follow it up with a full scale invasion after that event in a couple of years . The only thing he got awry was the time lines. This was supposed to occur mid 2020's onwards . Now he's modified the 2nd part of his prediction . Our response all through has been exactly as he's described it . That's the reason for his despair , immense frustration & dire prediction.
In my opinion until bullets go off and we end up with 67 kind of a situation the encroachment wont stop.

But by the looks of modi and his baboon they dont want a confrontation with china in their political term so its stupid to even expect one.

The way things are going in a decade we would rather vacate all the hotspots and form a defense line around delhi. Our politicos are capable of even spinning that as a victory too.

Sorry but actually Im very bearish on India’s capability to deter china. But I do predict Japan and US would pull the rug from from under the Chinese legs in this decade itself. Afganistan was the first step of the process.
 
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_Anonymous_

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In my opinion until bullets go off and we end up with 67 kind of a situation the encroachment wont stop.

But by the looks of modi and his baboon they dont want a confrontation with china in their political term so its stupid to even expect one.

The way things are going in a decade we would rather vacate all the hotspots and form a defense line around delhi. Our politicos are capable of even spinning that as a victory too.

Sorry but actually Im very bearish on India’s capability to deter china. But I do predict Japan and US would pull the rug from from under the Chinese legs in this decade itself. Afganistan was the first step of the process.
Let's see . The last thing China wants is to be bogged down in the western front while it's strategic interests are in the east .

Nothing would please Taiwan US Japan & their allies more than to see India hold off China for as long as it can absorbing the brunt with the Chinese dedicating force levels here essentially meant for the eastern front & possibly humble the Chinese too given the state of intoxication their hubris has led them too .

That's one of the aims of the Quad . To tie China down on multiple fronts . Unfortunately for the Chinese the Quad doesn't have to initiate these measures which the Chinese are themselves initiating with the Quad reacting to it in an increasingly coherent co ordinated manner , something which the Chinese are absolutely livid & equally apprehensive about .

China has blundered by opening up too many fronts simultaneously , by laying their cards on the table about their intentions far too soon & by compounding these by being even more adamant & belligerent about it's actions it's motives the results & justifications offered.

Coming back to Rikhye , one reason why his theory is inadequate & therefore flawed is because he considers a two front war will be waged under the N overhang which is by no means a certainty . While India may be reticent on Nuclear First Use either as a counter value or counter force strike against China for obvious reasons , in case of a 2 front war faced with a loss of territory I doubt it would exercise such restraint against Pakistan.

Rikhye has since modified his earlier stance which on the face of it seems depressingly plausible but I'm not too sure if faced with recurring aggression India can afford to lose territory & sit quite about it without a hue & cry in the country with possible grave consequences for the ruling party in government at the hustings & beyond .

I say this for while the Chinese have had a long term view of how quite to execute their land grab plan lasting decades & generations as observed since 1949 in India's case beginning with their occupation of Tibet , the current leadership wants to accomplish everything in a hurry. This is precisely what will precipitate a crisis , one which the Chinese believe they can control but things rarely follow a plan in a crisis.
 

noksss

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Saaho

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Thank god he haven't predicted tamilnadu too will fall under Chinese influence.....Indian army actions in galwan ,doklam,kailash range proved that they are not pushover ...........so how does the expect PLA to take sikkim and a large chunk of northeast
You don't get it, don't you? Even though he wrote it clear as day. THERE WILL BE NO WAR/BATTLE. Indian leadership will keep on appeasing China out of fear.
 

randomradio

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Thank god he haven't predicted tamilnadu too will fall under Chinese influence.....Indian army actions in galwan ,doklam,kailash range proved that they are not pushover ...........so how does the expect PLA to take sikkim and a large chunk of northeast

He's unhappy with the current situation and is only venting.

In Ladakh, the Chinese have pushed quite a lot towards India. In Depsang, they are right next to the SSN road. In most other places, we have eyeball to eyeball confrontation a bit further away.

But the Chinese have reached the peak of their salami slicing tactic in the region and if they want anything more, they will have to forcibly push the IA out, which means war. Or they have to try the same elsewhere and turn the LAC into LoC. But everything else he's worried about, not gonna happen without going to war.
 
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