Israel, US Strike Iran After Weeks Of Warning, Explosions Heard In Tehran

In this case, yes, Iran is more credible. Especially after they actually adhered to the JCPOA.



All nuclear activities had stopped, confirmed by IAEA.

Natanz and Fordow cannot be dismantled based on an agreement with the US alone. Like I said, US doesn't have the credibility for that. These facilities were necessary as a hedge, and this was proven true.

Different story that Iran's conventional capabilities sucked.



India believes in everybody having nukes or none. India is all for global disarmament.

I'm all for whatever ends up making Pakistan the biggest remaining threat to Israel. :LOL:

Many have said (including Netanyahu himself), that Pakistan is next.

But that won't happen until & unless Iran is permanently neutralized as a threat first. Once that's done, a lot of scope opens up for gainful collaboration with Israel on working the problem that are Pakistan's nuclear weapons.
 
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Apparently $100-150 oil without regime change for many years. That would directly benefit US and Israel's enemies.

The US may have planned to use high oil costs to diminish competitor economies and rebuild their own industry, but it's not gonna work out at such a high price, and for many years.

India's now buying Russian oil at a $5-15 premium over Brent.

Global recession incoming.
 
I'm all for whatever ends up making Pakistan the biggest remaining threat to Israel. :LOL:

Many have said (including Netanyahu himself), that Pakistan is next.

But that won't happen until & unless Iran is permanently neutralized as a threat first. Once that's done, a lot of scope opens up for gainful collaboration with Israel on working the problem that are Pakistan's nuclear weapons.

:LOL:

Definitely. That will be the day.

And the American's wanna block China's access to the Arabian Sea. That implies we retake PoK.

With PoK in our hands and regime change in Iran, China's cut off from both Indian Ocean and the ME.

We have only until 2030 or the early 2030s to deal with Pakistan on our terms. By the mid-2030s and beyond our security challenges will see a sea change, literally, 'cause of PLAN's permanent entry into the IOR. Op Sindoor's bought some time, but it's temporary.

At the very minimum, denuclearizing Pakistan and retaking PoK will take them out of the running as an enemy. Partitioning will be a more permanent solution.
 
The US may have planned to use high oil costs to diminish competitor economies and rebuild their own industry, but it's not gonna work out at such a high price, and for many years.

The simple mathematics is, whatever cost US has spent until now on Ukraine and this current ongoing skirmish will be compensated from Iran only, it is a fossil rich country. Westerners logic is you spend 1 cookie in return get 1.5 cookies at least. This is how progressive people think unlike some Lavde na Bhojyam philosophy.
 
The simple mathematics is, whatever cost US has spent until now on Ukraine and this current ongoing skirmish will be compensated from Iran only, it is a fossil rich country. Westerners logic is you spend 1 cookie in return get 1.5 cookies at least.

Won't work if the regime destroys its own oil infrastructure before disappearing.
 
You agree because that's the main goal of the conflict for the US/Israel. But it's the Iranians who have to agree and they have rejected it.

As I said, America isn't trustworthy enough for point 5 to work out. This requires simultaneous disarmament, and some very serious security nuclear guarantees directly from the US itself. Plus under the UNSC, it can't merely be bilateral.
Which indicates that they do have a nuclear program, otherwise they would agree. Make it a legally-binding treaty.
 
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In this case, yes, Iran is more credible. Especially after they actually adhered to the JCPOA.
If you support terrorists like Hezbollah, you have exactly zero credibility. The JCPOA allowed them lots of loopholes to exploit, which they did, pointing to the fact that they would eventually break it once they had a viable bomb design and built up enough centrifuge capacity to build a bomb quickly.

They also had undeclared capacity going into JCPOA.

And suddenly they're now at 84% as of 2023.

All nuclear activities had stopped, confirmed by IAEA.
If a base exists 100m underground, that is a nuclear activity.
Natanz and Fordow cannot be dismantled based on an agreement with the US alone. Like I said, US doesn't have the credibility for that. These facilities were necessary as a hedge, and this was proven true.

Different story that Iran's conventional capabilities sucked.
They aren't hedges, they are active programs. It's not just that they existed, a new facility was being built underground, with more centrifuges, that is not in the spirit of the JCPOA and led to withdrawal.
India believes in everybody having nukes or none. India is all for global disarmament.
India is unrealistic.
 
It's called as assertive measure, 1200 oil wells were set on fire during retreating Iraqi army in gulf war 1, that didn't stop the profit which came after things settled.

It's not just the oil fields, if they destroy power production along with it, all of that will have to be rebuilt. Venezuela claims they need $150B and 10 years to increase production from 1 mbpd to 5. Iran may need 1 year to clear the oil fields, but up to 2-3 years to restart power production.

The important bit is it won't happen within Trump's time. He will leave behind a legacy of an insane global recession instead.
 
If anyone can make sense of #1180 please tag me. Ive a bottle of Johnny Walker as reward. I've tried AI too & the answer I received would make Hydrocele's posts seem more intelligent.

Reminds me of the Bhojpuri dub of Mission Impossible 3 - ∞ . At least in that case there was a lot lost in translation. Here there's a refusal to admit lack of even cursory knowledge of the said subject .

Just read up on the go & post on the go.

55-Funny-hollywood-movie-titles-in-bhojpuri-that-will-blow-your-mind31.jpg

The Gathas were never written down till the Sassanid Empire somewhere between the 3rd -7th century CE . Even then there were plenty of issues as Alexander had burnt down Persepolis the capital of the Achaemenid Empire in the late 3rd century BCE when he invaded Persia.

With it was gone all the knowledge since that was the repository of high priests as like the Vedic people the Avestans were primarily an oral culture .

Whatever was salvaged in the form of the 17 hymns in 5 Gathas authored by Zoroaster were mere fragments of the the original. Nobody knows how much was lost as all those with such knowledge had long since disappeared.

The usage of Haoma / Soma in sacrifices was the contribution of the Bhrigus who were the priests of the Anu tribe the enemy of the Bharatas . Ditto the concept of fire sacrifice which is credited to the Bhrigus along with the Angiras who were the priests of the Bharatas.

Since at that time both tribes lived side by side these innovations were shared between them. Then came the schism. The Athravans of the Zend Avesta are the very same as the Bhrigu of the Vedas .

Incidentally not all Bhrigus sided with the Anu tribe in their war against the Bharatas. Hence not all of the Bhrigus accompanied the Anus in their emigration from what's India proper then.

Another factoid - the Atharva Veda is also known as the Atharvangirasah/Bhrgvangirasah - the latter compound name should give one an indication of the authorship of the Athrava Veda.

As I've stated before the Zend Avesta is considered to be a lost twin of the Atharva Veda where certain rituals & mantras not performed by the Vedics given the schism in the religion was observed & performed by the Avestan people & vice versa.

The Angra Mainyu or the destructive spirit in Zoroastrianism is thought by some to be Angiras though this isn't an unanimous opinion. Incidentally the conflation of Daevas as demons is a later development. In his Gathas Zoroaster merely refers to them as false or fallen Gods .

Lots of things to unpack in this fascinating episode . Unfortunately time is a constraint.
 
It's not just the oil fields, if they destroy power production along with it, all of that will have to be rebuilt. Venezuela claims they need $150B and 10 years to increase production from 1 mbpd to 5. Iran may need 1 year to clear the oil fields, but up to 2-3 years to restart power production.

When the profit is worth in trillions then 100-200 billion is worth spending. Russians have captured Crimea because they know the worth. By the way rebuilding also gets you jobs. This is how world functions, earlier Indians understand this better will be for them in formulating foreign policies.
 
Which indicates that they do have a nuclear program, otherwise they would agree. Make it a legally-binding treaty.

How dumb can you be? They gave it up, you tricked them, they restarted it, but only enrichment. They still don't have a weapons program. They only have 60% enriched uranium, which is not usable as a weapon. It's only useful in advanced reactors.

Even if they attempt to make nukes, it will be nothing more than 1-3 kt using dozens of kg of 60%, making it pointless.

Anyway, JCPOA was a legally-binding UNSC-sactioned treaty, which Trump illegally withdrew from, hence the lack of credibility. No treaty with the US is possible at this point in time. The only choices today are either an invasion or call it quits and go home. Treaties are over.

Now the situation is such that if the US quits, China will find a way to wriggle back into Iran and protect it while Iran goes nuclear in a few years, NoKo-style.
 
If you support terrorists like Hezbollah, you have exactly zero credibility.

You may think that, but the party you are fighting doesn't, so that makes the difference.

To make it easier for you to understand, Iran no longer trusts the US because the US no longer has credibility.

The JCPOA allowed them lots of loopholes to exploit, which they did, pointing to the fact that they would eventually break it once they had a viable bomb design and built up enough centrifuge capacity to build a bomb quickly.

They did no such thing. They locked up all their old stuff, and built new ones after 2018.

They also had undeclared capacity going into JCPOA.

What crap.


Yes. They restarted in 2021.

From your link:
  • Between February 2022 to February 2023, Iran nearly tripled its annual deployment of advanced centrifuges to over 3500 advanced centrifuges deployed during that time span, compared to the deployment of about 1200 advanced centrifuges observed between February 2022 and February 2021, which itself was double that from the year prior, February 2020 to February 2021, during which roughly 500 advanced centrifuges were deployed.
  • Iran now has over 3700 IR-2m centrifuges installed, which exceeds not only the 1000 IR-2m centrifuges installed prior to the JCPOA, but also the 3000 IR-2m centrifuges planned prior to the JCPOA.

So they had 500 centrifuges, half of what they were supposed to have under JCPOA. And that climbed to over 3700 after Trump withdrew. I see nothing wrong with this.

If a base exists 100m underground, that is a nuclear activity.

No. If a base has nuclear activity, then it is a nuclear activity.

They aren't hedges, they are active programs. It's not just that they existed, a new facility was being built underground, with more centrifuges, that is not in the spirit of the JCPOA and led to withdrawal.

Nope. The "new" facility was built during Obama's time, long before JCPOA. Obama revealed it in 2009.

You don't even read your own links, and you don't even know the history of all that's happening. No wonder your country is being taken over by Islamists.

India is unrealistic.

Our ideals are simple but fair. Your realism is one-sided.

That's why the my way or the highway comment, and it no longer has any takers.
 
When the profit is worth in trillions then 100-200 billion is worth spending. Russians have captured Crimea because they know the worth. By the way rebuilding also gets you jobs. This is how world functions, earlier Indians understand this better will be for them in formulating foreign policies.

Things would have been peachy if Venezuela stepped in with more oil over time and there was no Iran War. But I'm talking about current events, where we only have a recession to look forward to.

China's in deeper trouble than India is in terms of supply, but they are creating alternatives faster than we are. Otoh, they are currently at peak oil and peak emissions but we are still 10 years away from the same.

In fact, we are expected to consume more oil than predicted.
So 15 years away.
 
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Things would have been peachy if Venezuela stepped in with more oil over time and there was no Iran War. But I'm talking about current events, where we only have a recession to look forward to.

China's in deeper trouble than India is in terms of supply, but they are creating alternatives faster than we are. Otoh, they are currently at peak oil and peak emissions but we are still 10 years away from the same.

In fact, we are expected to consume more oil than predicted.
So 15 years away.
just saying IEA has a vast history of drastically underestimating the growth of renewables. Its quite literally half funded by oil lobbies. I would take the results of the agency with a grain of salt.
 
Footage of an attempt to shoot down an American F/A-18 Hornet fighter jet by an Iranian air defense system of an unknown type. Judging by the video, the Iranian anti-aircraft missile's warhead was insufficient, and the F/A-18 continued its flight. The video was filmed near the port city of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman. US command denied reports that the F/A-18 Hornet was shot down.

 
Footage of an attempt to shoot down an American F/A-18 Hornet fighter jet by an Iranian air defense system of an unknown type. Judging by the video, the Iranian anti-aircraft missile's warhead was insufficient, and the F/A-18 continued its flight. The video was filmed near the port city of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman. US command denied reports that the F/A-18 Hornet was shot down.

It seems the F/A-18 survived the strike and kept flying. However, this once again proves that MANPADS (one was alleged to have been used) are emerging as the leading threat to any low-flying manned or unmanned aircraft along the Iranian coast. Interesting set of tactics on display by the RGC. They have gone for horizontal escalation and distributed confrontation along the coast. Let's see how things unfold in the coming days.