Israel, US Strike Iran After Weeks Of Warning, Explosions Heard In Tehran

Looks like the full-scale SOF op (Rangers + Tier-1s) that I predicted is going ahead. The MEU/Airborne troops landing on Kharg/mainland may be a sideshow or feint as SOCOM goes in to grab nuclear material:


Way to go in achieving surprise. So, yeah, the named places are not targets.

My guess is it will be used to support the USMC operation in Sistan instead.

It's not realistic to steal nuclear material in an SF op. It requires days/weeks to clear and needs heavy and specialized machinery.

The uranium is stored in a liquid form that makes transportation dangerous, which is why it happens in solid form.

So first you gotta heat it in a specialized autoclave and then use pumps to transfer it to a cylinder suitable for transport, then you gotta wait for it to cool and become solid, which takes up to 5 days. Uneven cooling will result in leakage. Then you need few hours to move it into a transport. So at least a week to do all this.
 
Hezbollah is Iran too, they attacked first. Iran was likely behind the Hamas attack too.

My guess is Qatar.

They are Hamas' biggest backers. Some of their leaders were hiding in Qatar too. Qatar acts as the intermediary between Hamas and the US/Israel.

Plus Qatar considers Iran an enemy.
 
IMHO, this is still high risk and I don't think the GCC will hold out as long as the US hopes.

It is possible if NATO moves in along with US. US is trying for that. But due to ongoing Ukraine war, it is a risky situation because they have to cover the eastern flank in Ukraine as well, or else Russia will step up the pressure in Ukraine. Or GCC nations along with US army move in amphibiously. It is right now Ying Yang situation.
 
Way to go in achieving surprise. So, yeah, the named places are not targets.

My guess is it will be used to support the USMC operation in Sistan instead.

It's not realistic to steal nuclear material in an SF op. It requires days/weeks to clear and needs heavy and specialized machinery.

The uranium is stored in a liquid form that makes transportation dangerous, which is why it happens in solid form.

So first you gotta heat it in a specialized autoclave and then use pumps to transfer it to a cylinder suitable for transport, then you gotta wait for it to cool and become solid, which takes up to 5 days. Uneven cooling will result in leakage. Then you need few hours to move it into a transport. So at least a week to do all this.

Isn't Uranium (enriched or otherwise) kept as a solid for long-term storage? Why would they keep it as a liquid? That would just make it more volatile & dangerous to store. Never heard of that practice.

Nevertheless, if there's an SOF mission to snatch & grab material, it would be because they have accurate intel on where it's stored, and in what state. Mossad's got spies everywhere in Iran.
 
Why not US, Europe. I am by the way fascinated to see that even China is not affected. All these nations have done extremely well to secure their livelihoods and resources for their people. Exceptionally good performance. Whole Ukraine war, there was no major gas shortage even to industries in Europe. Marvelous!
Huh? Not affected ? How did you come to this conclusion exactly?
 
Frankly if the entire world is being informed that US SF have been amassed in a particular geography then the aim is something else.

We didn't hear of DEVGRU aka SEAL Team 6 make a public appearance before Operation Neptune Spear did we ? In any case I doubt these guys are there to extract the enriched Uranium.

Rather if they're tasked with such a mission it'd likely be to destroy those facilities at Natanz or wherever it is the US suspects that enriched uranium is concealed in.

This could be coz those facilities are located too deep underground to be taken out by ground penetrating munitions like GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) as the US attempted last year .

In any case given the circumstances such an operation is being attempted in , it's more like a one way mission aka a suicide mission.
 
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Frankly if the entire world is being informed that US SF have been amassed in a particular geography then the aim is something else.

We didn't hear of DEVGRU aka SEAL Team 6 make a public appearance before Operation Neptune Spear did we ? In any case I doubt these guys are there to extract the enriched Uranium.

Rather if they're tasked with such a mission it'd likely be to destroy those facilities at Natanz or wherever it is the US suspects that enriched uranium is concealed in.

This could be coz those facilities are located too deep underground to be taken out by ground penetrating munitions like GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) as the US attempted last year .

In any case given the circumstances such an operation is being attempted in , it's more like a one way mission aka a suicide mission.
This is very much true. This war is far from over as quite interesting times are ahead. Fingers crossed.
 
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Let's see. In 2018, when Trump withdrew from JCPOA, Iran had zero kg of 60% uranium.

They were allowed 3.67% enrichment of U-235 below a cap of 300 kg and they had 123.9 kg.

In 2018, Trump withdrew from JCPOA and reimposed sanctions.

In 2020, Iran warned they will enrich above 20% if sanctions were not lifted. In 2021, they had 6.5 kg of 60% and a few hundred kg by 2025.

Ah, of course, Israel attacked Natanz twice, once in 2020 and again in 2021. Post which, they decided to restart 60% enrichment.

So, no, they did not have a weapons program under JCPOA. And not even in 2025.

All this was in response to Trump's "maximum pressure" and Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facility.

Yeah....... It's one of those my way or the highway rules.
:ROFLMAO:

Natanz was built before 2002 at a depth of 260-330ft (80-100m).

In 2012 Iran already had 20% enriched Uranium.

What is the purpose of 60% enriched Uranium other than a bomb? To pretend you're building a bomb so that you get bombed anyway?

What is the purpose of facilities 100m underground other than a bomb?

Those are the questions you keep avoiding.

They were building the centrifuge capacity to build a bomb quickly, whilst pretending to adhere to JCPOA.
 
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Huh? Not affected ? How did you come to this conclusion exactly?

Minor issues, basically of price rise due to extra infrastructural build up cost. Nothing as such of extreme shortage. In Europe average shortage is 15% reduction in gas storage volumes until today from start of Ukraine war. The energies supplied were secured.
 

The European Union’s gas in storage levels are below 30%, benchmark gas prices are the highest in over a year, and QatarEnergy just shut down the world’s single biggest LNG production facility. The situation looks like a recipe for disaster, and the chances of a painless solution are slim.

EU’s benchmark natural gas price has gained as much as 60% since the United States and Israel started bombing Iran on Saturday, and while some of these gains were erased this week, significant upside potential remains. Not only has QatarEnergy suspended LNG production and declared force majeure on exports, but insurers’ refusal to provide coverage for vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz, along with Iranian warnings that enemy vessels will be legitimate targets, has resulted in severe disruption of tanker traffic in the chokepoint.

Of course, the EU could always lean more heavily on American liquefied gas. After all, it even made a commitment to buy $250 billion worth of it and oil annually until 2028 as part of the trade deal European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen signed with President Trump last summer. This is what it will likely have to do, in the absence of Qatari LNG for an unknown period of time. But there is a problem with that, and the problem is the price.

Bloomberg sounded the alarm as early as January, reporting that below-average winter temperatures were driving the fastest pace of withdrawals from natural gas storage in Europe in five years, as heating demand soared. The gap between demand and supply was so significant that LNG cargo arrivals were at less than half of the daily volumes withdrawn from storage. What’s more, at the time and over the next month, the unfavorable price spread between winter and summer prices did not encourage early stockpiling.
 

No risk of fuel shortage in Poland despite Middle East conflict: PM


03.03.2026 15:30
Poland faces no problems with fuel supplies and no risk of shortages despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Tuesday.

Speaking ahead of a Cabinet meeting in Warsaw, Tusk said the war had no direct impact on oil and fuel deliveries to Poland.


"I want to assure you that there is no problem when it comes to fuel reserves in Poland," he said. "The war has no direct effect on crude oil and other fuel supplies to Poland."

Tusk said state-controlled energy group Orlen does not import oil from Iran or via the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping has been disrupted.

"The entire structure of oil supplies to Orlen and to Poland is currently completely secure, and there is no question of even the slightest disruption," he said.

Fuel storage facilities are more than 73 percent full—above normal levels—with about 3 million cubic metres of crude oil and rising, he added.

Tusk acknowledged that the government cannot guarantee fuel prices will remain unchanged, but said Orlen would use financial tools, including adjustments to margins, to prevent sharp swings in global oil prices from translating into major increases at the pump.

"We cannot, of course, guarantee that prices will remain untouched during this period," he said.

He added that natural gas reserves were also stable.

In a statement on Monday, Orlen said it was closely monitoring events in the Middle East and their potential impact on global energy markets.

"At this stage, we do not identify any threat to the continuity of fuel supplies to the domestic market or to the operation of our refineries, as Orlen has not imported and does not import crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz," the company said, adding that mandatory and strategic reserves provided a buffer against temporary disruptions in international trade.

The company said it has for years pursued a strategy of diversifying crude supplies.

Oil processed at its refineries comes from the Mediterranean region, North and West Africa, northern Europe, the Americas and domestic production.

Orlen also has long-term contracts with companies including Saudi Aramco and Equinor, which secure a significant share of its demand.

Orlen said it is prepared for various international scenarios, including potential changes in supply routes, and does not foresee refinery shutdowns or production cuts linked to tensions in the Middle East.

The company added that most liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sold in Poland comes from its own refineries, supplemented mainly by seaborne imports from the United States and western and northern Europe.

Drivers using LPG-fueled vehicles should not fear shortages, it said.

The comments come after an escalation of hostilities involving Iran, Israel and the United States.

The Iranian leadership on Sunday confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with senior military officials, following attacks on Tehran.

Iran has since launched strikes on Israel and US military bases in Gulf countries.


The Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, has seen major disruptions, according to reports.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that no vessels would be allowed to enter the strait, leaving hundreds of tankers stranded.

Between one-fifth and one-third of the world's seaborne oil trade passes through the strait, along with significant volumes of natural gas, Polish state news agency PAP reported.

Oil prices have surged in response to the escalation.

Analysts expect prices to remain elevated in the coming days amid concerns about attacks on energy infrastructure and maritime transport.

(gs)

Source: IAR, PAP, TVP Info

 
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Things for ES are expected to get tough in SEA.


Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr on Tuesday declared a state of national energy emergency in response to the Middle East conflict and what he called an "imminent danger" posed to the country's energy supply.

Marcos said a committee has been formed to ensure the orderly movement, supply, distribution and availability of fuel, food, medicines, agricultural products and other essential goods.

In an executive order shared with the media, Marcos said the conflict had created uncertainty in global energy markets, severe supply-chain disruption and significant volatility and upward pressure on international oil prices, "thereby posing a threat to the country's energy security".

"The declaration of a state of national energy emergency will enable the government...to implement responsive and coordinated measures under existing laws to address the risks posed by disruptions in the global energy supply and the domestic economy," he said.

The declaration, which will remain in effect for one year, authorises the government to procure fuel and petroleum products to ensure timely and sufficient supply and, if necessary, pay part of the contract amount in advance.
 
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French government calls on refineries to ease fuel price pressures​


The government has not announced any direct aid to lower prices at the pump. It is, however, introducing aid measures for the hardest-hit sectors, such as fishing and road transport.

By Marie de Vergès

Published today at 2:29 pm (Paris)
2 min read

Lire en français

French government calls on refineries to ease fuel price pressures


On Monday, March 23, Greece released €300 million in subsidies for fuel and fertilizers. Spain is offering a discount of up to 30 cents per liter of fuel at the pump. In Italy, a government decree cut fuel prices by 25 cents per liter. And France? Nearly one month after the start of the war in the Middle East, on February 28, which sent oil prices soaring and, as a result, pushed up the cost of diesel and gasoline, the French government is also trying to ease the burden. But it has stopped short of offering direct aid that would cost the state.
The government is asking refiners to ramp up production. It sent a letter to the six French refineries "to ask them about their ability to increase production of products we currently refine the least on our territory," the Finance Ministry explained. Among these are jet fuel and especially diesel. Before the war, more than half of France's diesel consumption was imported, notably from the Persian Gulf. This dependence has led, since early March, to a much sharper rise in diesel prices than in gasoline, exceeding €2.10 per liter ...

..............

France is increasing it's domestic production. They have very well secured the energy supplies whether by import or some other off shore production.
 
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The price of Brent crude oil has risen back above $100 a barrel, after plunging on Monday, as conflicting accounts of potential talks between US and Iran emerged.

Oil prices slumped on Monday after US President Donald Trump said the US would postpone strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure

Trump said on his Truth Social platform the US and Iran had a productive conversation.

However, Tehran rejected claims that it had been in contact with Washington, calling them an attempt to manipulate markets.

On Saturday, Trump had said that he would "obliterate" Iranian power plants if the key Strait of Hormuz shipping route was not reopened in 48 hours, with Iran saying it would respond by targeting key infrastructure in the region.

Those comments rattled markets, causing the price of Brent to hit $113 a barrel.

But oil prices plunged and stock markets rebounded after Trump on Monday said he would hold off strikes, claiming Iran and the US had held talks about a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL" resolution.

However, Asian stock markets, which have also been rocked in recent weeks by the conflict, were relatively stable on Tuesday.

In morning trading, Japan's Nikkei 225 was 0.8% higher, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong was up by 1.6%, while South Korea's Kospi rose by 2.2%. They had fallen sharply on Monday as Asian countries are heavily dependent on oil and gas that would normally pass through the strait.

Reaction on the UK's FTSE 100 and Germany's Dax were muted, falling 0.3% and 0.9% respectively in the hours after opening, before recovering ground by midday.

The US S&P 500 opened down 0.8% in early trading before recovering.
 
Europe gets its gas supply basically from US and Norwegian LNG pipeline, reducing their dependence on Russian gas, EU was not importing a lot of gas from Gulf. Canadians are rich in fossils, US is rich in fossils, China has secured it's supply in other states like Nigeria or Chile, Russians have abundance. Indians left with no choice. Maverick diplomacy and energy security policies by mole Dharmendra Pradhan the most crap minister the P&NG ministry ever got, and hoarding Indian oil mafia has doomed it as they did not let India free away dependence from Russia and Gulf oil as they get a lot of cut during the deal which delayed the project of 15MT/ year of CBG gas, otherwise there was no need to import LNG.