Israel, US Strike Iran After Weeks Of Warning, Explosions Heard In Tehran
- Thread starter Ashwin
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Jaishankar says Iran got nothing in 'exchange' for Indian-flagged ships' passage: ‘We have a relationship’
S Jaishankar hailed recently held talks with Iran and said it was the most effective way to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.| India News
www.hindustantimes.com
Iran proved ALL of these objection stupid and obselete. Against the most competent war planners. About time we learn from the REALITY and not from stupid theory. In this war, missiles have been vindicated and conventional bombers have been proven stupid. US lost a number of tankers and fighters worth 300-400 million. And Iran used 1/3rd of that money to inflict MASSIVE damage to US allies.
Its Game Set Match already.
Who said one missile wonly?
One missile can completely disable a ship, subsequent hits meaning its airbatteries are out of comission too. Few more hits by drones and missiles and it goes down.
10 missiles + 200 drones = 70 million in ammo vs 1.5 billion dollar down the drain.
Its about cost.
Cost of buying one Rafale : 200-300 million (Plane + fuel + ordinances + pilot etc etc etc).
Cost of buying 10 IRBMs + 100 drones? 70 million.
Its not even an argument.
Have you calculated cost of running an airbase?
Infra cost in ports, air strip etc is MASSIVE.
We have a MASSIVE country. If Iran can tunnel and hide its missiles, India can do too. We have all the space we need. LOL! We have MASSIVE mountains to dig into. We are not running out of space anywhere.
Cost of tunneling with a tunnel bore machine is peanuts compared to cost of making a air bases and ports.
Plus drones just need simple trucks and nothing more.
Take example of Zongi-la tunnel : 13 KM tunnel for 2600 Cr INR or 280 million USD. Thats peanuts compared to multi billion dollar airbase.
And even 10 KM can accomodate 300 missile launchers (assuming each launcher takes 30 meter of space). Two lane tunnel can easily ensure any laucher to move out.
5-6 billion is enough to host 6000 such missiles and launchers. And you can reuse launchers.
For 1/3rd the cost of Rafale deal, you can have ALL of this.
Nukes are problematic diplomatically and nukes do not allow calibrated ramp up of hostility. Plus nukes require centralized command. You can not allow base commanders to let nukes fly. It needs a succession of leadership and strategic command.
Nukes and Iranian style missile complex are complementry and not overlapping.
Nuke are for responding to nukes.
No, they will go back. We have nukes too. China will NEVER be the first country to use nukes. Becase that means nuking of entire china.
Simply put with a conventional asymetric missile + drones threat, China will simply stop messing with India militarily. Becase it has more to loose.
We don't fully know the extent of damage the allies plan to do to Iran. We have to see all that later on to judge.
That's far too less to defeat networked systems. In Op Sindoor, we defeated 1000 drones and missiles while barely even trying.
The Rafale will still end up cheaper.
It's far cheaper than what you have proposed.
That's just a transportation tunnel. Missile bases are complexes, not merely a hole in the wall.
People live there. You need living quarters, communication hubs, life support systems, security etc. Even without silos.
Instead we build much smaller numbers and disperse them over a large area.
You attack economic centers to "send their economy to the shitter and decimate their population," they will respond with nukes.
Using conventional weapons to attack certain civilian infra in a caliberated manner to a certain extent will be tolerable, like transportation hubs and energy, and we have weapons for that already, and we are seeing that in both Ukraine and Iran. But if you meaninglessly attack civilians without strategy, the only response will be nuclear. It's a red line.
While Iran has been holding out, effectively blocking hormuz strait & is causing significant retaliatory damage to US bases, Israel, GCC countries, but the country who has received the most beatings/damage is Iran itself.
Hope its enough for you recalibrate the extent of effectiveness and limitations of various weapons, weapon systems ,doctrines, goals, etc. And able to look the Current REALITY taking place in a more broader way.
And not jumping into shallow conclusion of what's is vindicated and what is stupid, the conclusion itself is wrong and the attempt of simplify it in this way heavily skew the reality taking place at best.
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Like Munira, Trump had also hosted exiled Iranian prince Reza Pehlavi at the WH, not too long ago. He may be parachuted into Iran as its interim leader (a la Md Yunus) before an elected govt loyal to the US takes over.
If Trump wants to deny China access to Iranian oil, he can't leave the Ayatollahs in charge of the country.
At best, he might let them seek asylum in Russia but that would be it.
They reportedly have some weapons grade uranium stashed away someplace. It is probably not deployable on a missile though.
Neither of the examples I gave were life or death choices. I thought I clearly wrote in such cases the parents of the child intervened. Nor is the You Tube lecture series of that eminent historian a life or death matter which is the reason I urge you to peruse the entire series. Who knows this may just result in an epiphany ! You could thank me later. Or you could thank the professor. Or you could thank both of us.
There's a movie called the 36th Chamber of Shaolin . It's the usual Shaw Bros formulaic film from Hong Kong the equivalent of our masala entertainment.
Long story short - the protagonist loses his parents to a fight with an evil landlord in mediaeval China. He swears revenge & goes to Shaolin to learn what else but Kung Fu .
The chief priest after his ordination as a monk asks him which chamber would he like to begin his training from with the 35th chamber being the last chamber .
Obviously the protagonist opts for the 35th chamber only to see wizened old monks chanting Buddhist mantras & beating the drum in rhythm.
His constant exhortations to them asking the latter to accept him as their disciple irritates one who just waves his hand dismissively in the air causing the protagonist to be thrown out of the room.
All shaken up by the experience when the chief priest who's witnessed the entire event asks him once again where would he like to start , murmurs almost inaudibly - from the very bottom.
I urge you to see that movie. You'd learn a lot . Perhaps then you'd stop making silly requests & asking questions like if the distance between Delhi to Mumbai is 1500 kms & the distance from Mumbai to Delhi is 1500 kms how come it's 364 days from 1st January to 31st Dec but only 1 day from 31st December to 1st January ?
See that's where experience & maturity comes in which you one acquires over the years where one turns old in the process .
No I know for a fact I've been around longer than you are based on the quality of your posts .
Remember - when I was in uniform you were in liquid form , when your mom was combing your hair I was there.
Answered this above. Re read it till it becomes a moment of epiphany for you.
The journey of a 1000 miles begins with a single step . You orgasm with the 1000th thrust . Does that mean you should begin with the 1000th thrust & save yourself all the effort ?
Keep messaging for more such muft gyaan . Makes me feel important even if all this stuff is too intelligent & deeply philosophical for you .
I can see the reason why several mental health specialists have constantly highlighted the extremely short attention spans of Gen Z .
Apparently all that swiping left ( or right , can't say since I'm too old for those apps ) has numbed the youth who're constantly looking for instant gratification ,lack the attention span & patience for hard work & can't be bothered to put in real efforts .
It's a real pity. You actually seemed intelligent . Or at least you had me convinced at one point you were intelligent. Now , I'm genuinely worried about the future of this country . Hope you didn't graduate during COVID ?
I'm not interested in validation my boy . Too old for that. Been there & done that . It's you who're looking to be validated.
Answered this above.
Americans learning new combat experience and Indian retired vets tweeting plans and policies etc etc on X how to move forward. They couldn't introspect the geography topology and innovate combat skills when in service, giving gyan after retirement.
IMO he's a sideshow. In any case this regime isn't falling now. The idea is to help create an atmosphere where the regime's fall becomes inevitable in the near future.
As I've pointed out before that would entail destroying Iran's NWP , their war waging machinery , their infrastructure followed by their basic infrastructure like electricity supply distribution networks , potable water dams , reservoirs , supplies , IRGC / Basij / other allied para Militias barracks , bases , ammo depots , police stations , administration buildings , etc.
They'd avoid targetting hospitals schools bazaars etc if they can help it. There's a reason for this. This January protests broke out over hyper inflation , the Iranian rial rapidly losing its value , water scarcity in Tehran etc.
Apparently the bazaar merchants / traders were in the forefront of the protests. Now as I've pointed out before this is a very important lobby whose protests against the Shah forced him into exile & support for the mullahs saw them take power.
The last time the revolution was staged it was led by groups as diverse as students , unemployed youths ,women , clergy & young seminarians , political activists like from the Tudeh Party which was the communist party of Iran , lay supporters of Khomeini etc. The proverbial straw that broke the camel's back was when this traders group entered the protests.
Except for the clergy & young seminarians every other group was apparently protesting this January. The die is cast. IMO it's only a matter of time before this regime is history. Assuming hostilities end today I'd give it anywhere between 1-3 years for the regime to collapse.
Most likely what will follow is a bloody civil war a la Iraq Syria Libya etc for the only organization that exists outside the Mullahs ecosystem to an extent is the Artesh or the Iranian Army .
Whether they seize the moment & act as a cohesive group will determine which way the Iran of tomorrow is headed.
For the Mullahs to resume normal drilling operations & restore other Infrastructure like storage facilities , pipelines , pumping stations etc will take a lot of time . Plus the sanctions are still in place & will likely be strengthened.
Nope. It's a fight to the end. Neither Russia nor China will take them in. This is very personal between the Deep State in the US & Israel. They'd want to make an example out of this regime like they did with Gaddafi.
Apart from a dirty bomb what else can they come up with ? The facilities to assemble a N device has long been destroyed. What remains will be destroyed in due course.
I think that's the point they're making, Iran no longer has the time to set up LFRs.
Indian tanker came under attack in Fujairah port. Narrowly escaped:
3 IN destroyers nearby when the attack happened. They may have had a role in defending the ship while escorting another:
3 IN destroyers nearby when the attack happened. They may have had a role in defending the ship while escorting another:
In many ways, Iran is like Afghanistan. The people may want freedom, education, jobs, economic growth, etc. But their collective national identity is of an ethno-religious state. After all, Iran is the world's only Shia majority country, ruled by Shias.
Judging by the protests among that community here in India, the killing of Khamenei Sr will likely lead to the Iranian people rallying around his successor. They have endured years of Western sanctions and hardships already.
If the clerics survive in power, the Chinese would probably pour money into rebuilding Iran's oil infrastructure (via CPEC expansion and/or picking up stakes in key ports like Chahbahar) in exchange for long term mining rights.
You can be sure the clerics will weaponize at the first possible opportunity. I'd wager NoKo would help them in getting over any tech hurdles with Russia expediting deliveries of Su-35s, Mi-28s and other hardware contracted by Iran.