Israel, US Strike Iran After Weeks Of Warning, Explosions Heard In Tehran


Lessons from the Hormuz Humiliation: Why India Must Abandon it’s Surface-Fleet Fantasy and Master Choke Points

The most powerful navy in history has just confessed defeat in the 33-kilometre-wide Strait of Hormuz. In March 2026, as the US-Iran war entered its third week, reports revealed that the US Navy has rejected near-daily requests from the global oil industry for escorts through the Strait of Hormuz. Three American supercarriers — Abraham Lincoln, Gerald R. Ford and George H.W. Bush — plus French and British warships sit idle in the Arabian Sea, Red Sea and Mediterranean. Though their collective military might outguns most nations, none of it can safely escort even a single oil tanker through the narrow corridor. Iranian kamikaze drones, swarms of fast-attack boats, naval mines and coastal anti-ship missiles have turned the tight waterway into a lethal gauntlet. A mere $500 contact mine can cripple a $4-billion destroyer. The best surface radars cannot detect submerged threats, and air power has proven equally ineffective at sweeping shipping lanes.

This is not merely an American failure. It is a warning written in fire for every navy that still dreams of blue-water dominance in the age of aerospace power. For India, staring at a peer competitor across the Indian Ocean, the message is brutally clear: surface ships and aircraft carriers are not assets; they can rapidly become liabilities. In any conflict with China — or even a superpower like the United States — our carriers and destroyers will become expensive coffins the moment hostilities begin. The Indian Ocean is no longer a safe playground for carrier strike groups. It is a contested littoral where geography, not tonnage, decides victory.

India’s naval planners have long chased the Mahanian dream: three carriers, a 175-ship fleet, blue-water power projection from the Gulf of Aden to the South China Sea. INS Vikrant is commissioned; INS Vikramaditya soldiers on; a third carrier is on the drawing board. Billions have been poured into surface combatants that look magnificent during naval reviews but will be dead meat in real war. Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles (DF-21D, DF-26), hypersonic glide vehicles, satellite-linked drone swarms and quiet diesel-electric submarines have turned the Indian Ocean into an anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) killing zone. Even the Americans, with three carrier strike groups, cannot protect a tanker in Hormuz. What chance do our smaller, less-protected surface ships have when the People’s Liberation Army Navy brings the same arsenal into waters closer to its bases?

The recent US-Iran war has laid bare the arithmetic. Surface ships are sitting ducks for air-power assets — land-based missiles, aircraft, drones and mines. A carrier’s air wing is powerful only if it survives the first salvo. In narrow seas or choke points, it becomes a floating bullseye. Mines laid by fast boats or submarines cannot be cleared by Aegis destroyers. Kamikaze UAVs overwhelm point-defence systems. One lucky hit on an Indian carrier group would produce exactly the strategic humiliation Washington is now desperately avoiding. India cannot afford that humiliation; our economy depends on energy flows through the very same ocean.

Fortunately, geography has gifted India a far cheaper and more lethal alternative. Instead of scattering scarce rupees across vulnerable surface fleets, we must concentrate every paise on the natural choke points our island territories already dominate. Four corridors matter above all:
The Malacca Strait approaches, controlled from the Andaman and Nicobar chain.
The Hormuz lesson is merciless but mercifully timely. India’s defence forces must learn it before Chinese missiles teach it to us the hard way. In the 21st-century Indian Ocean, geography is destiny — and surface fleets are dinosaurs. Choke points, submarines, missiles and island bastions are the future. Let us seize it before it is too late.


Yes.. there r more lessons too... do we need manned fighters when long range SAMs and long range precision strikes from land can do needful a la Iran?? And when GCC nations ask US to "pick and leave", the only tools avble, in the absence of shore bases, would be CBGs and CSGs. Its so typical to see stuff from coloured lenses- specially when the colour suits your argument. Disagree most respectfully, sir.. am reminded of the days when at Nhq we saw IAF staff officers scurrying about MoD with a file named- -"Why IN does not require a Carrier"..!!

Such PDA between the two services brings tears of joy to one's eyes especially if we were to consider participation in the JV with le Francais for the FCAS project wherein all probability , taking a leaf out of the Rafale project , Dassault Aviation would first take on development of the Naval version of the 6th Gen FA .

If so in our case the IN will be expected to lead the project from our end. As you can see the IAF would be more than happy to cede space to the IN to lead the project.

Alhamdulillah !
 
FPV drones from pro-Iranian groups have been spotted for the first time over the American military base "Victory" in Baghdad. The FPV drones, of an unknown model, are controlled via fiber optic cable and are possibly used by the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" group. Judging by the video, the American military base is empty and the drone operator is attempting to find a target. In this case, the very use of FPV drones indicates a significant future threat to US bases in Iraq and the region. Currently, air defenses cannot effectively engage FPV drones.

 
At this point, the Iranians might contemplate taking a leaf out of Pak N doctrine and detonating a crude nuke on their own territory to raise the stakes for invading Allied forces.

Kharg may be an ideal candidate as it is isolated from the rest of the country.

Iran's leadership is out of options. Israel seems to be determined to bring about a regime change his time. For its part, Iran has already offered to give up N enrichment/weaponization efforts via Qatar. The Americans egged on by Israel didn't relent.

Destruction of oil facilities will lead to mutual destruction. If Kharg goes, so will UAE and Saudi facilities. Regime change for every one.

The last thing the world wants is the Iranians pulling multiple Saddams across the GCC.

This regime isn't going anywhere. The Americans miscalculated, the Israelis know and don't care, but the world has to suffer for it.
 
I always used to think that best counter to China is India having MASSIVE presence of anti ship ballisitic missiles on our islands. They re unsinkable. Now we have perfect tool for the job as well. India's LRAShM.

Its highly manuverable, pin point and almost impossible to intercept.

If we boost its range to 2,500-3000KM and produce and deploy some 10,000 of them in Andoman and Nicorbar island, China is done for. Becuse of pure geography.

It will make malacca strait and by extension bay of bengal completely sealed off for anyone. Deep tunnels and deeply entrenched massive forces, with years of provision means both supply and trade of China as well as massive Chinese surface fleet is completely useless. Together with its naval aviation force.

Plus its submarine forces are of no use as well because they can not do shit against a force hidden inside island chain.

Complement it with some 3000 KM suicide drones powered with motorcycle engine and you have completely and utterly undone all the massive chinese investment in ship building.

We will however need OTRs and satellites. But those need not be owned by us, we can use other's too.

A final component in this game is resistance to de-capitation. Iran's current command structure is the ULTIMATE "Jo uchit ho wo kijiye". That is delegation of command to local commanders or military personnels in case China tries to do similar exercise on India.

This is India's Fist of Pearls against China's "String of Pearls".


Second implication if also fun!

We can use Himalayas too! For countering Chinese threat.

Just like Gulf countries and Israel, China is also vulnerable to conventional missile barrage. All those LED light cities? What will happen if they are hit by a constant barrage of conventional ballistic missiles? And a massive wave after wave of drones? CCP will have a MASSIVE problem at its hand then. It will loose any facade of control and stability in its own country. Just like UAE and Gulf.

We need roughly 4,500 - 5500 KM range conventional single warhead missiles to cover every important city in China. And in VERY VERY LARGE numbers. Plus drones. Again, in very large numbers.

This is asymmetric warfare at its finest.

Both of these weapons are medium in cost and do not require ANY technical breakthrough. Optically guided drone and passively guided BMs with INS and bit of radar guidance in terminal phase = none of China's air space defence can counter.

Second is anti satellite weapons. These should be fired in first opening salvo.

Blind them first and then bomb them to the end of the world with BMs and Drones.
 
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Damn ! Jeff Epstein has done more to boost anti semitism in the US undoing all the "good work " done by ADL & other Jewish organisations there since decades.

The ones most pleased are the LeLi DEI LGBTQWERTY mob ,the white supremacists , the Bible Belt , the nikkas , the peacefuls in the US irrespective of their country of origin , anybody else I've left out.

In short the entire country including some self loathing shlomos.
 
I always used to think that best counter to China is India having MASSIVE presence of anti ship ballisitic missiles on our islands. They re unsinkable. Now we have perfect tool for the job as well. India's LRAShM.

Its highly manuverable, pin point and almost impossible to intercept.

If we boost its range to 2,500-3000KM and produce and deploy some 10,000 of them in Andoman and Nicorbar island, China is done for. Becuse of pure geography.

It will make malacca strait and by extension bay of bengal completely sealed off for anyone. Deep tunnels and deeply entrenched massive forces, with years of provision means both supply and trade of China as well as massive Chinese surface fleet is completely useless. Together with its naval aviation force.

Plus its submarine forces are of no use as well because they can not do shit against a force hidden inside island chain.

Complement it with some 3000 KM suicide drones powered with motorcycle engine and you have completely and utterly undone all the massive chinese investment in ship building.

We will however need OTRs and satellites. But those need not be owned by us, we can use other's too.

A final component in this game is resistance to de-capitation. Iran's current command structure is the ULTIMATE "Jo uchit ho wo kijiye". That is delegation of command to local commanders or military personnels in case China tries to do similar exercise on India.

This is India's Fist of Pearls against China's "String of Pearls".


Second implication if also fun!

We can use Himalayas too! For countering Chinese threat.

Just like Gulf countries and Israel, China is also vulnerable to conventional missile barrage. All those LED light cities? What will happen if they are hit by a constant barrage of conventional ballistic missiles? And a massive wave after wave of drones? CCP will have a MASSIVE problem at its hand then. It will loose any facade of control and stability in its own country. Just like UAE and Gulf.

We need roughly 4,500 - 5500 KM range conventional single warhead missiles to cover every important city in China. And in VERY VERY LARGE numbers. Plus drones. Again, in very large numbers.

This is asymmetric warfare at its finest.

Both of these weapons are medium in cost and do not require ANY technical breakthrough. Optically guided drone and passively guided BMs with INS and bit of radar guidance in terminal phase = none of China's air space defence can counter.

Second is anti satellite weapons. These should be fired in first opening salvo.

Blind them first and then bomb them to the end of the world with BMs and Drones.

It works both ways. And it's easier for them to target our fixed island positions compared to their presenting moving targets.

Land-locked weapons systems are why Iran is struggling.

Small drones are useless against sufficiently advanced air defenses, especially ships.
 
It works both ways. And it's easier for them to target our fixed island positions compared to their presenting moving targets.
Problem is. Fixed island positions can be entrenched much more deeply. Moving target will have only this much defence and will be WAY more vulnerable.
 
Problem is. Fixed island positions can be entrenched much more deeply. Moving target will have only this much defence and will be WAY more vulnerable.

Then there's nothing cheap about this. Managing all that infra will require significant urbanization of the islands, that's unrealistic too.

And IRBMs for conventional use is impossibly expensive, so only nukes and specialist roles like bunker busting.

To destroy fixed facilities, the Chinese too have to use only a handful of IRBMs with bunker busters to get to the majority of the stockpile.

Most fixed facilities won't survive wars between great powers, that's why whatever is fixed is either deep underground or even underwater (HQs) and the rest is dispersed (air bases) or mobile (army, fighters, ships etc).

India's planning an underwater naval base.
 
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Then there's nothing cheap about this. Managing all that infra will require significant urbanization of the islands, that's unrealistic too.
Huh? Bruv! A hypersonic missile cost maximum 10-15 million dollars. A god damn destroyer costs 1-1.5 billion dollar. Thats 100x difference.

And IRBMs for conventional use is impossibly expensive, so only nukes and specialist roles like bunker busting.
WHAT?
Indian ICBM, Agni V costs ONLY 6 million dollars. LOL! Its pennies to dollars. We are talking about Agni IV level missiles.

For 10 billion dollars, India can have 3-4 thousand such missiles. Plus mass production will lower cost a LOT.

We spend more than that in Lado Choot / Ladli Choot-wali-na schemes.

We are buying 112 Rafales for 36 billion, we can sure as hell make 4000-5000 IRBMs. Cost is not a problem at ALL here.

Plus not all cities of China are that far. MRBMs can target Shenzen. Thats like 10-15% of Chinese economy and critical economy gone with just 2-3 billion worth of missiles.

And not to mention, we can supplement this with suicide drone having 3-5000 KM range costing barely 40K USD. LOL!

To destroy fixed facilities, the Chinese too have to use only a handful of IRBMs with bunker busters to get to the majority of the stockpile.
Iran has shown, China is a moron.

Most fixed facilities won't survive wars between great powers, that's why whatever is fixed is either deep underground or even underwater (HQs) and the rest is dispersed (air bases) or mobile (army, fighters, ships etc).
Dude, this is not about destroying a nation's military power. This is about destroying a nation's strategic economy.

They can keep all their military intact but their god damn economy will be gone in shitter. Their population decimated.

This is why they will avoid fighting ANY kind of war with India because they know what will come and they will know that nothing can be done to counter that.

This is an asymetric plan that makes military power worthless. See what is happening in Iran war. If Iran had a SINGLE missile that could reach mainland US, Trump would not have DARED to attack Iran.
 
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Huh? Bruv! A missile cost maximum 10-15 million dollars. A god damn destroyer costs 1-1.5 billion dollar. Thats 100x difference.

Yeah, but you're talking about "very, very larger numbers" of city-busting missiles. And they are all one-time use.

Both beancounters and strategists have made calculations and figured out that the destroyer is the better option over missiles even when using the same budgeted amount.

An IRBM is supposed to cause damage in many billions, so the use is specialist. As mentioned, nukes, bunker buster, special HVAs, like a carrier.

Just so you know, it's extremely difficult to sink large warships. An IRBM may not necessarily sink one of them, especially since it's likely to miss more than hit. And successful hits are more likely to cause surface level damage rather than true structural damage. At the very least, it can help achieve mission kill, but that's about it. 1 missile will probably take out 1 compartment out of half a dozen to a dozen. And to sink such ships, you need to take out 60-70% of such compartments.

Tactical missiles can be built in the thousands. The USAF is planning to build over 10000 JASSM/LRASMs for example. The USN has 4000 Tomahawks. The US Army plans to induct 4000 PrSMs. And Taiwan's building 1000 missiles a year of various types. So tactical missiles are available in the tens of thousands already, and this only complements the main capability.

In any case, no matter how many missiles you have, without any survivable non-kinetic means of support like EW, your missiles are not going to hit anything worthwhile.
 
Indian ICBM, Agni V costs ONLY 6 million dollars.

That's merely the cost of the missile. The actual cost is the supporting infrastructure.

For 10 billion dollars, India can have 3-4 thousand such missiles.

Each missile is 17.5 m long. It's as big as an apartment building. Where will be keep them?

Silos? Sure, but who's gonna pay for that? That's why the superpowers only build a few hundred and put nukes in them. The Americans are planning on spending a hundred billion on 400 odd silos.

Trucks and rail cars? Again, where are we gonna place that many? All these are easy targets. At least silos need 2 hits with nukes to take out.

Have you calculated the cost of tunneling?

Dude, this is not about destroying a nation's military power. This is about destroying a nation's strategic economy.

We have nukes for that.

They can keep all their military intact but their god damn economy will be gone in shitter. Their population decimated.

They will use nukes on us.

I think you need to look up the purpose of nuclear deterrence.

What Iran's doing is well below the nuclear threshold, they can get away with it 'cause the US and Israel are doing way worse to them.
 
As a few had speculated, other nations are being asked to open and patrol areas in and around the Gulf. The markets continue to be in a state of flux as the conflict continues.


President Donald Trump said on Sunday his administration is talking to seven countries about helping to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, calling on them to help protect ships in the vital waterway that Tehran has mostly blocked to oil tanker traffic.
With the conflict creating turmoil across the Middle ‌East and shaking up global energy markets in its third week, Trump insisted that nations relying heavily on oil from the Gulf have a responsibility to protect the strait.
 
I don't want a young one like you to jump to conclusions that people as old & biased as me reach merely coz we've been around.

That's the reason I want you to parse thru his entire ouevre running a fine hair comb through all his analyses before you reach an informed decision & pronounce like Yamraj does on whether that eminent historian is guilty as I hold him to be .



Once again why would I colour your opinions with my lens ? You seem the intelligent kind . Someone who doesn't take things for granted & demands evidence . Had you been blessed with lesser IQ , I would have definitely consider your request & complied with it .

Since you're obviously the intelligent & perceptive kind you should be able to reach your own decision which would be independent devoid of any perception bias based on an informed analyses of his entire content for one can't base ones judgement on a podcast here or there or even on certain opinions expressed in a podcast .

That wouldn't give you a holistic picture of what that eminent historian stands for or his views or even his world view. After all one swallow does not a summer make !


Answered this one above.

Once again I reiterate the need for you to reach an independent conclusion . I mean why would you want me to spoon feed you . That's what less intelligent & lazy folk do .

I'm old . Old people don't need a reason to hate on someone . They just diss a person because they can . It's the young who ought to take the lead & debunk all such silly notions the old have.

American Indians used to follow a simple principle when raising their kids . They let the toddler explore everything in their environment & wouldn't interfere unless there was a genuine threat to the kid's life.

For example if there was a fire burning & the kid crawled to it & stuck his hand in the fire , that kids folks didn't ever stop the kid. The child then would learn to respect fire & never ever forget the incident for the rest of his life . Ditto for whenever the kid saw an animal & decided to stick his finger into the animal's rear .

Since my folks didn't bring me that way I'm all the poorer as far as understanding first principles go . I don't want you & other youngsters as intelligent perceptive & sensitive as you to have that kind of sheltered life.
Hey, I get what you're saying about forming an independent view and not wanting to be spoon-fed, that's fair. But comparing it to letting a kid stick their hand in fire or poke an animal's butt is a wild stretch. This isn't life-or-death survival; it's checking someone's YouTube lectures. Asking for one or two concrete examples (timestamps, specific claims, whatever made you call him a 'Han con man' with CCP/MSS ties) isn't lazy or low-IQ, it's just efficient and one of the measures of science and intelligence is making things more efficient.

You've assumed you've been around longer and say you reached that conclusion, so it shouldn't be hard to point me to the exact part that flipped the switch for you. If it's really obvious across his whole oeuvre, surely there's a smoking-gun moment you can share without making me watch 50+ hours first. I'm genuinely down to look at it and discuss, hit me with that one thing and we'll go threadbare like you said. No games, just facts.
Also please don't ignorantly assume your statements are make people jump to any conclusions cause you aren't. if you are successfully able to back up any of your claims, we would look at it, assess it and conclude if it has any merit to it.
 
Someone said that that chnk said Israelis were burning their own homes and blaming it on the attacks to claim insurance if he has indeed said that then he is retarded.

He covered a protest in China in 2002 and was deported back to Canada cuz of that, now he is a professor at Beijing, so excuse some of us if we are rather skeptical of his views because China doesn't necessarily take you back when you don't conform to their objectives.
Interesting
 
President Donald Trump said on Sunday his administration is talking to seven countries about helping to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, calling on them to help protect ships in the vital waterway that Tehran has mostly blocked to oil tanker traffic.
With the conflict creating turmoil across the Middle ‌East and shaking up global energy markets in its third week, Trump insisted that nations relying heavily on oil from the Gulf have a responsibility to protect the strait.
I fuked it up, now you fix it