Israel, US Strike Iran After Weeks Of Warning, Explosions Heard In Tehran


Supposedly, Pakistan has deployed Chinese-made LY-80 (export version of HQ-16) medium-range SAMs to Saudi Arabia under the Mutual Defence Agreement signed in 2025:


The systems will be operated under Pakistani command.

Don't know how much truth there is to this report but if this is accurate, the potential for serious deconfliction errors in the overall C&C of the region is massive. A Chinese ADS operating in a battlespace managed by US datalinks & networks could be a disaster waiting to happen.

Not to mention the security risk of US stealth aircraft radar signatures being potentially recorded/compromised by the HQ-16/LY-80's accompanying radar systems. It's a given that F-35s, F-22s and other stealth aircraft in the region are operating in active combat missions without their Luneberg lenses.
While avg pakistani is supporting Khameni' Iran and cursing UAE, SAUDI, ISRAEL calling them puppet of jew... Their dictator goes to save the aforementioned puppet 🤣🤣🤣🤣.
 
So the Kurdistan play.
Kurdistan , Balochistan , Greater Azerbaijan - all options are open. Right now the objective is to completely obliterate Iran's NWP , their arms mfg complex along with their existing inventories , destruction of their infrastructure including basic infrastructure like water , electricity & other utilities , target internal security set up including IGRC , Basij & other law enforcement / para militias associated with the regime .

Don't think the allies will go hard at the Iranian Army except the top brass. Idea would be to pit them against the security establishment of the regime.

Destroy as much as you can before calling it a day , tighten the sanctions regime & wait for the remnants of the regime to implode.

As I remarked in my previous post , the bloody uprising last month was sparked off due to water scarcity , precipitous fall in the value of the Iranian Rial causing huge inflation in a very short period of time.

You can well imagine what the situation will be like once this war stops & whoever is in charge will be left holding the baby .
 
Several of above posts are a compelling argument to make a case for mass manufacturing of our weapons and systems soon. That needs an expansion unlike ever seen in India.

Get the pvt players, build the factories, churn out Nirbhayas, UAVs, ASTRA, Interceptors .. everything.

I remember discussing about it with you @marich01 about the difficulty of managing big inventory and hence the limited scale of production.

But do you think that the time is nigh to increase our production capacity by multiple times? For every thing.


We also discussed why US finds itself at backfoot wrt China despite having superior technology. It's pure economics. They are having hard time scaling the production.

Given the scenario.. it's okay if GOI allows 80-20/100-0 foreign subsidiaries to be set up in India.. only to cater to their own & export demands. If you can safeguard indigineous innovation while increasing productivity through foreign subsidiaries.. it would be like how China became the manufacturing hub in 90s.
Been raising the issue since the past 4 years before the war in Ukraine on the Indo China war gaming thread on the need to expedite the production of masses of Tactical BMs & CMs in the thousands for ranges between 300-4000 kms only to be laughed at by the usual suspects. @Rajput Lion

Tbe other lesson from the war in Ukraine & the Iran vs Israel & US war are the deployment of a whole array of drones & anti drone warfare besides of course the fact that the importance of air warfare can't be underestimated nor the need for sophisticated ISR & integrated ADS.

We've all the building blocks for the aforementioned categories in house except augmentation of our air warfare capabilities & capacities . Yet our security establishment including this government especially Leaderji are sitting on the fat of their arses twiddling thumbs.

Hopefully whatever's happening now will finally open up the eyes of our establishment to do the needful ASAP.
 



The longer this conflict draws out, the more likely it is that post-war Iran will resemble not the pre-1979 Iran, but more like post-2006 Iraq, with multiple armed groups fighting for control over ethnic minority provinces with a weakened central authority which may or may not be able to hang on to those restive provinces.

On India's part, if there's an opportunity to support separatist movements in the Sistan-Baluchistan province (which contains the Indian-financed port of Chabahar & shares a border with Afghanistan), we should absolutely do it.

An independent Iranian Baluchi province could not only allow us to finally realize the Chabahar project to its full extent (inclusive of the connected road & rail networks leading into Afghanistan), but also to serve as a potential springboard for supporting Pakistan's own Baluchi insurgency in a much more sustained and substantial way.

At least for the next few years, there could be an opportunity to support such a movement in southeastern Iran in full concert & coordination with Israel (and perhaps US).

As they say, Carpe Diem. Hope we seize the day.

Many Iranians have spoken about this. Things are gonna get way worse for them at this rate.

Plenty of opportunity for the Chinese to run things.
 

Okay, that's a LOT of damage inflicted on the US Navy's Bahrain facilities. The SATCOM/EHF infrastructure is totally decimated, along with significant damage to the NAVCENT HQ building itself, along with large-scale destruction of other adjacent buildings (possibly storage/logistics):

View attachment 50135

Seems to be a clear case of US Air Defence being totally overwhelmed at least at this localized level.

@Ashwin @randomradio @Gautam @Rajput Lion

Sheer dumb luck that the Iranians do not have an air force. Had they had even a 100 jets with strike capabilities, the attacks would have been double as intensive.
 
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Russia was behind the 2023 attacks on Israel, just look at the timing. They're not helping Iran because they're at their limit.

Don't be silly, it goes against their interests. They wanted a way back in in the ME, not go even further out.

This was in fact in Turkey's interest. Just look up what happened in Syria after the attack.
 
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Been raising the issue since the past 4 years before the war in Ukraine on the Indo China war gaming thread on the need to expedite the production of masses of Tactical BMs & CMs in the thousands for ranges between 300-4000 kms only to be laughed at by the usual suspects. @Rajput Lion

Tbe other lesson from the war in Ukraine & the Iran vs Israel & US war are the deployment of a whole array of drones & anti drone warfare besides of course the fact that the importance of air warfare can't be underestimated nor the need for sophisticated ISR & integrated ADS.

We've all the building blocks for the aforementioned categories in house except augmentation of our air warfare capabilities & capacities . Yet our security establishment including this government especially Leaderji are sitting on the fat of their arses twiddling thumbs.

Hopefully whatever's happening now will finally open up the eyes of our establishment to do the needful ASAP.

I remember goi opening up missile manufacturing to Pvt players last year.

There was also the commitee headed by def sec which discussed allowing 100% foreign owned subsidiary to be set up and considered as an indian vendor in procurement.

Seems like countries like Israel, Russia are keen on this. But I believe that we should negotiate and not insert any clause or loopholes for them to be considered as indian vendor. Foreign OEMs are reaching for too much here.

This could not only work for EP but also proliferation of skilled workforce and MSMEs.
 
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I remember goi opening up missile manufacturing to Pvt players last year.

There was also the commitee headed by def sec which discussed allowing 100% foreign owned subsidiary to be set up and considered as an indian vendor in procurement.

Seems like countries like Israel, Russia are keen on this. But I believe that we should negotiate and not insert any clause or loopholes for them to be considered as indian vendor. Foreign OEMs are reaching for too much here.

This could not only work for EP but also proliferation of skilled workforce and MSMEs.

I'm a huge fan of the rocket forces. I wanted us to import cheap Iskanders directly from Russia in the hundreds, but most of the focus was on Israeli missiles instead. I hope we get Russian tech after the war's over, they have some really good stuff. Our new ones are still WIP.
 
Sheer dumb luck that the Iranians do not have an air force. Had they had even a 100 jets with strike capabilities, the attacks would have been double as intensive.
The iranians have an airforce. They just need to integrate guided munitions. Something even Pakistan does. Considering the iranians are a bigger economy they could have easily integrated long range guided munitions on their f-4,f-14 and f-5. The mullahs are incompetent. That's the reality. The Israelis are humiliating them because the Iranians failed to modernise.
When the Pakistanis could use the mirage 3/5 to do the rose program and integrate munitions what was stopping the iranians? They could have easily bought the ls series from the Chinese. Deep down the iranians want validation of the west. It's the same issues with the Turks. That's why they didn't go for the nukes which they could have easily. How bad is your security apparatus if the Israelis keep infiltrating your upper commands. Your mullahs are against fatwas. Your military is in complete shambles. In fact the Iranian regime has similarity to Nazi Germany in the fact that the SS had superior armament compared to the wehrmacht. The same issues was with the Iraqis where the IRGC had superior equipment to the Iraqi army. They are doing the textbook failure of investing more in the religious police/militia than their military.
The entire Iranian defence apparatus is around Drones, BMs and Anti Air/Sea. The problem with this design is that you can do a lot of damage provided it's an assymetric situation. Wherever you face an enemy with decent AD and an air force it's basically over. Iranian AD is mediocre and they have dated Russian AD. Chinese AD performance is below average. So their only saving grace is the overglorified ballisitic missiles and drones.

I didn't know that the ayatollah had a fatwa against nukes. This regime deserves to be destroyed for their strategically and tactically deficient. A land invasion doesn't seem to be an immediate problem but I could see Iraqi Kurdistan and Balochistan being used as a staging ground for destabilisation and then a proper invasion. The way the Iranians are reacting we will see the entire Sunni bloc allyign with the Israelis and Americans to take out Iran.
 
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Next!

The iranians have an airforce. They just need to integrate guided munitions. Something even Pakistan does. Considering the iranians are a bigger economy they could have easily integrated long range guided munitions on their f-4,f-14 and f-5. The mullahs are incompetent. That's the reality. The Israelis are humiliating them because the Iranians failed to modernise.
When the Pakistanis could use the mirage 3/5 to do the rose program and integrate munitions what was stopping the iranians? They could have easily bought the ls series from the Chinese. Deep down the iranians want validation of the west. It's the same issues with the Turks. That's why they didn't go for the nukes which they could have easily. How bad is your security apparatus if the Israelis keep infiltrating your upper commands. Your mullahs are against fatwas. Your military is in complete shambles. In fact the Iranian regime has similarity to Nazi Germany in the fact that the SS had superior armament compared to the wehrmacht. The same issues was with the Iraqis where the IRGC had superior equipment to the Iraqi army. They are doing the textbook failure of investing more in the religious police/militia than their military.
The entire Iranian defence apparatus is around Drones, BMs and Anti Air/Sea. The problem with this design is that you can do a lot of damage provided it's an assymetric situation. Wherever you face an enemy with decent AD and an air force it's basically over. Iranian AD is mediocre and they have dated Russian AD. Chinese AD performance is below average. So their only saving grace is the overglorified ballisitic missiles and drones.

I didn't know that the ayatollah had a fatwa against nukes. This regime deserves to be destroyed for their strategically and tactically deficient. A land invasion doesn't seem to be an immediate problem but I could see Iraqi Kurdistan and Balochistan being used as a staging ground for destabilisation and then a proper invasion. The way the Iranians are reacting we will see the entire Sunni bloc allyign with the Israelis and Americans to take out Iran.
Their air force would not last a second in the air right now.
 
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Don't be silly, it goes against their interests. They wanted a way back in in the ME, not go even further out.

This was in fact in Turkey's interest. Just look up what happened in Syria after the attack.
1, How?



2, even if true, it Still remains an indicator for narrowing possibilities,But
not a definite proof in of itself.
1. Distracted the world from the war in Ukraine, allowing them greater scope for attacking civilians targets.

2. Consumed US resources going to Ukraine in a second war.

3. Well exactly RR, and the bombing of Gaza supported by the US likely made people in TME more Russian friendly not less.

In this game there is no definitive proof, there is just what everyone knows, as with the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings that abruptly swung the election in Putin's favour, where members of the FSB were even caught by police carrying RDX into Moscow apartments and then the team conducting an independent enquiry all died in apparent assassinations.


Attempts at an independent investigation faced obstruction from the Russian government.<a href="1999 Russian apartment bombings - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>8<span>]</span></a><a href="1999 Russian apartment bombings - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>9<span>]</span></a> State Duma deputy Yuri Shchekochikhin filed two motions for a parliamentary investigation of the events, but the motions were rejected by the State Duma in March 2000. An independent public commission to investigate the bombings was chaired by Duma deputy Sergei Kovalev.<a href="1999 Russian apartment bombings - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>10<span>]</span></a> The commission was rendered ineffective because of the government's refusal to respond to its inquiries. Two key members of the Kovalev Commission, Sergei Yushenkov and Yuri Shchekochikhin, have since died in apparent assassinations.<a href="1999 Russian apartment bombings - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>11<span>]</span></a><a href="1999 Russian apartment bombings - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>12<span>]</span></a> The commission's lawyer and investigator Mikhail Trepashkin was arrested and served four years in prison "for revealing state secrets".<a href="1999 Russian apartment bombings - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>13<span>]</span></a>
 
Does everybody have facilities in the Middle east. o_O
Well it was a secret, It looks like everyone knows now :eek:

wiki
Australia - The Australian Defence Force (ADF) has used Al Minhad as their main transport and logistics hub in the Middle East since the withdrawal of Australian combat forces from Iraq in 2008. The RAAF had operated AP-3C Orions from the base from 2003 to support operations in the region, however it was not until 2008 that an agreement was signed allowing Australia to command its regional headquarters there. "Al Minhad Air Base - Wikipedia"
At Al Minhad, the ADF maintains a facility, which is named Camp Baird,and as part of the military intervention against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant has deployed Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornets, Boeing E-7A Wedgetails and Airbus KC-30As."> During early 2015 the Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornets replaced the McDonnell Douglas F/A-18A Hornets.
 
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Australia - The Australian Defence Force (ADF) has used Al Minhad as their main transport and logistics hub in the Middle East since the withdrawal of Australian combat forces from Iraq in 2008. The RAAF had operated AP-3C Orions from the base from 2003 to support operations in the region, however it was not until 2008 that an agreement was signed allowing Australia to command its regional headquarters there. "Al Minhad Air Base - Wikipedia"
At Al Minhad, the ADF maintains a facility, which is named Camp Baird,and as part of the military intervention against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant has deployed Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornets, Boeing E-7A Wedgetails and Airbus KC-30As."> During early 2015 the Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornets replaced the McDonnell Douglas F/A-18A Hornets.
but everyone is ok

"Defence Minister Richard Marles says Australian personnel are "safe and accounted for" after an air base used by Australian forces was struck by Iran near Dubai. "