Israel-Hamas Conflict: Updates & Discussions

Israel likely struck the Russian Khmeimim airbase in Syria to destroy weapons intended for Hezbollah, according to BILD. A series of explosions occurred near the base, which reportedly targeted an Iranian arms shipment. This is part of Israel's ongoing efforts to disrupt Hezbollah's weapon supplies through Syria, though it's the first time the Russian base has been hit. The attack happened shortly after the arrival of an Iranian plane. The airstrike was confirmed by Syrian journalists and Hezbollah members.
 
Israel has also « boots on the ground », meaning mossad and mandatories, for sabotage or striking hvt.
Lets not forget stuxnet-like ops.
Options that I hope would not be perceived as an escalation but as a retaliation, nor would they lead to a conflagration in the region.

Our esteemed Chinese member may not agree, but China's way behind the West's military forces, never mind ragtag groups like the Hezbollah and Iran.

China's coming up, but it's a 10+ year process, and countries like Iran will never match the West.
 
The US are prepared for that this time though, as are the Saudis and I suspect the Houthis are on borrowed time as it is - as soon as the current situations die down they are going - that much was decided after they started attacking ships. Nobody is going to tolerate that every time Hamas does something stupid.

I'm not very sure about US interest in placing troops on the ground in the Arabian peninsula. Fight by proxy as usual.

It would also be Iran starting a war with Saudi Arabia. Such a direct response would make the Houthis part of Iran.

That would be one big horror story if it escalates. Goodbye oil trade.
 
Nothing like 181 made it through. It was more like 181 interceptions out of 220 launched
Of course, Israel has publicized that it has intercepted a large number of missiles, but various videos show that the vast majority of missiles have stably completed the separation of the warheads and flew towards the target without any interference.
 
The accuracy of the iranian missiles is on question.
Even is they lauched all ther stock pile I don't see many damage
Israel has implemented a news censorship that is even stricter than Ukraine, so of course you can't see the target, and the Western media haven't reported any losses. Although Iran's missiles may have lower accuracy and less explosives, a large number of missiles broke through Israel's defenses in the night sky and hit the target steadily. Such videos are still shocking.
 
We do not know much about Israel's long range capabilities. Since Iran is their main enemy, they would have some solutions that do not just involve long range aircraft like the F-15E. At least we know they already have long range drones, cruise missiles and the Jericho ballistic missile. So, at the very least, it's similar to what Iran has, and with greater sophistication.

As for South Lebanon, the Israeli Army has the potential, but it depends on how much they focus on that objective. Typically they prefer to do a lot of damage and then leave. But if they plan to take the river and maintain a buffer zone, then they have the ability to do it. Unlike Hezbollah, the Older Forum is a proper army.

The biggest problem Iran has is it lacks an air force. They are entirely reliant on air defense. That gives them minimal options.

The US has the ability to defeat Iran, but don't have the stomach for it in terms of casualties if they want to occupy the country. If they only want to destroy Iran, change regime and leave, then it's definitely doable with minimal casualties, like they did during the Gulf War. Iran's missiles and air defenses are fine, but they need a proper air force if they want to hit American logistics and depth areas. Minimum 300 fighter jets, many logistics aircraft, force multipliers etc, and NATO-standard training. Iran's definitely not ready to fight the US, not even Israel.

In any case, whatever happens, I'm hoping there's little to no impact on the oil and gas trade.
Before the Al-Aqsa flood, most people still believed that Israel's army was strong. A few people may have an impression of Israel's poor performance in the 2006 Lebanon-Israel War, but last year, the Israeli army did not achieve any effective results in the street fighting in Gaza. A large number of Hamas videos showed that the Israeli army suffered heavy losses. Israel did not even achieve its minimum goal - to completely annihilate the resistance organizations in the Gaza Strip and support a puppet government in Gaza.
Hezbollah has far more advanced weapons than Hamas, as well as a large number of prefabricated tunnels. Most importantly, Hamas has about 8,000 soldiers who have experienced the brutal war in Syria. Is Israel confident that it can defeat them?
 
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The US has the ability to defeat Iran, but don't have the stomach for it in terms of casualties if they want to occupy the country. If they only want to destroy Iran, change regime and leave, then it's definitely doable with minimal casualties, like they did during the Gulf War. Iran's missiles and air defenses are fine, but they need a proper air force if they want to hit American logistics and depth areas. Minimum 300 fighter jets, many logistics aircraft, force multipliers etc, and NATO-standard training. Iran's definitely not ready to fight the US, not even Israel.

In any case, whatever happens, I'm hoping there's little to no impact on the oil and gas trade
Ukraine also has no air force, but has the Russian air force achieved decisive results? Russia organizes a large number of cruise missiles and drones to carry out air strikes on Ukraine every week, but has it had any significant impact on the war? Moreover, if the United States goes to war with Iran, Iran's large number of short-range missiles can effectively suppress the US military bases in the Persian Gulf.
At the same time, Iran even has extremely advanced air defense weapons. To some extent, they are better than the weapons that India can develop on its own. Israel did not have any obvious results when it counterattacked Iran’s first missile strike. At first, it claimed to have destroyed an Iranian S300 launch site, but then people discovered that the explosion traces claimed by Israel were just camouflage nets covering the S300 missiles.
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These Iranian missiles are obviously American in style, with phased array radars. You can see the shadows of many weapons such as Buk, PAC-2, THAAD,
 
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Our esteemed Chinese member may not agree, but China's way behind the West's military forces, never mind ragtag groups like the Hezbollah and Iran.

China's coming up, but it's a 10+ year process, and countries like Iran will never match the West.
Three months later, we will see whether Israel is able to defeat Hezbollah. Before October 8, 2023, everyone believed that Hamas's doom had come and he would ignite the fire of Islamic resistance with his life. However, now it seems that the incompetence, cruelty and cowardice of the Israeli Army have plunged Israel into a disaster. We have seen red arrows appear on the heads of countless Israeli soldiers. Israel can only rely on the intelligence capabilities of Mossad and the strike force of its own air force, but the final outcome of the war still depends on the army infantry.
 
Before the Al-Aqsa flood, most people still believed that Israel's army was strong. A few people may have an impression of Israel's poor performance in the 2006 Lebanon-Israel War, but last year, the Israeli army did not achieve any effective results in the street fighting in Gaza. A large number of Hamas videos showed that the Israeli army suffered heavy losses. Israel did not even achieve its minimum goal - to completely annihilate the resistance organizations in the Gaza Strip and support a puppet government in Gaza.
Hezbollah has far more advanced weapons than Hamas, as well as a large number of prefabricated tunnels. Most importantly, Hamas has about 8,000 soldiers who have experienced the brutal war in Syria. Is Israel confident that it can defeat them?

Having some trained and experienced foot soldiers and being able to prosecute a war are two different things. The Israelis have a professional army, they can do pretty much whatever they want to achieve victory, and the opposition can only act based on the limits the Israelis cannot force upon them due to external pressure.

In Gaza, the entire population has been displaced, and at least 40000 are dead, not counting the irrecoverably wounded. Even if Hamas is not completely destroyed, it has been significantly neutered. Whatever happens next is something only time can answer. We cannot guess today if Hamas will stay in power or will be removed by the Gazans themselves. The expectation is Fatah will take over. Considering the kill to loss ratio, I don't think Israelis have lost a lot compared to the scale of the war. Even if one out of three deaths in Gaza were Hamas, it's still 16:1 versus the Israeli army. As time passes, Hamas will have lesser and lesser space to hide as their own people start turning against them to survive.

As for Hezbollah, pretty much the entire leadership has been killed, while a large portion of the middle-rung commanders were wounded by exploding pagers. How well it will perform as a fighting force is yet to be seen, we are still in the very early days in Lebanon after all. More sophisticated weapons, more tunnels, all that cannot replace fighter jets and artillery.

A Trump victory can make things very unpredictable too. So we have to wait and watch what happens until Jan 20th and then see how things will progress after the 20th.
 
Having some trained and experienced foot soldiers and being able to prosecute a war are two different things. The Israelis have a professional army, they can do pretty much whatever they want to achieve victory, and the opposition can only act based on the limits the Israelis cannot force upon them due to external pressure.

In Gaza, the entire population has been displaced, and at least 40000 are dead, not counting the irrecoverably wounded. Even if Hamas is not completely destroyed, it has been significantly neutered. Whatever happens next is something only time can answer. We cannot guess today if Hamas will stay in power or will be removed by the Gazans themselves. The expectation is Fatah will take over. Considering the kill to loss ratio, I don't think Israelis have lost a lot compared to the scale of the war. Even if one out of three deaths in Gaza were Hamas, it's still 16:1 versus the Israeli army. As time passes, Hamas will have lesser and lesser space to hide as their own people start turning against them to survive.

As for Hezbollah, pretty much the entire leadership has been killed, while a large portion of the middle-rung commanders were wounded by exploding pagers. How well it will perform as a fighting force is yet to be seen, we are still in the very early days in Lebanon after all. More sophisticated weapons, more tunnels, all that cannot replace fighter jets and artillery.

A Trump victory can make things very unpredictable too. So we have to wait and watch what happens until Jan 20th and then see how things will progress after the 20th.
I said the same thing. We will see in three months how the Israeli Army performs. As for what you said about Fatah taking control of Gaza, I think you are living in a dream. Hamas will only become stronger and stronger. Every person killed by Israel will have his parents and brothers become new fighters. In Gaza, the largest prison, even if you are barely alive, you will be killed by Israel. It is better to die with Israel.
 
Of course, Israel has publicized that it has intercepted a large number of missiles, but various videos show that the vast majority of missiles have stably completed the separation of the warheads and flew towards the target without any interference.
These are the most recent results from PlanetLabs (ie Dove) constellation. Israel intercepted a lot of missiles, it did not bother to intercept those which it knew will not hit critical targets.

Another point. Iranian missiles are very very very inaccurate. They are worthless in non nuclear role.


@Bon Plan
 
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I said the same thing. We will see in three months how the Israeli Army performs. As for what you said about Fatah taking control of Gaza, I think you are living in a dream. Hamas will only become stronger and stronger. Every person killed by Israel will have his parents and brothers become new fighters. In Gaza, the largest prison, even if you are barely alive, you will be killed by Israel. It is better to die with Israel.
What if all of them are killed?
 
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At the same time, Iran even has extremely advanced air defense weapons. To some extent, they are better than the weapons that India can develop on its own.
Are you a Gaokao fail ? I ask for the Wumaos I'm encountering online nowadays are terrible at reasoning giving much needed competition to the likes of Paddy here @BMD as compared to what I used to encounter pre Wuhan virus , which leaves me with no option but to consider these are Gaokao fail CCP quota recruits into the MSS who owe their position there to some mid ranked official in the CCP who happens to be a close relative .

Have you see those Iranian missiles ? They're copies & derivatives of the North Korean Nodong missiles which itself is a copy of the Soviet Scud missiles which you passed on to the North Koreans & they to the Iranians with terrible accuracy in case they do manage to take off.

Secondly how do you know those Iranian missiles which ostensibly crashed into Israel & weren't shot down by the latter were off target hence left alone by the various Israeli ADS ?

Thirdly Iran is one of the most sanctioned regime in the world such that when they had to get themselves an ADS they turned to Russia & got the S 200 , S 300 apart from whatever the Chinese & North Koreans provided them clandestinely & then reverse engineered them to produce local ADS much like the Chinese .

Fourthly how effective are these Russian systems can be gleaned by the performance of Russian ADS in the war in Ukraine. For every successful intercept there have been spectacular failures as well .

Fifthly current ADS have no response whatsoever to saturation attacks as Russia & Israel is finding out & as Iran & China will soon find out once you undertake your long awaited invasion of Taiwan.

Finally , the Chinese are so proficient in ADS that they got themselves the Russian S 400 system apart from the various iterations of the S 300 systems which they copied to derive the HQ ADS which dominates your ADS now.

Further you've taken Russian consultancy to execute integrated ADS across the country & their IADS is there for the world to see. Sounds like you're in for a some real fun when the balloon goes up.
 
Ukraine also has no air force, but has the Russian air force achieved decisive results? Russia organizes a large number of cruise missiles and drones to carry out air strikes on Ukraine every week, but has it had any significant impact on the war? Moreover, if the United States goes to war with Iran, Iran's large number of short-range missiles can effectively suppress the US military bases in the Persian Gulf.
At the same time, Iran even has extremely advanced air defense weapons. To some extent, they are better than the weapons that India can develop on its own. Israel did not have any obvious results when it counterattacked Iran’s first missile strike. At first, it claimed to have destroyed an Iranian S300 launch site, but then people discovered that the explosion traces claimed by Israel were just camouflage nets covering the S300 missiles.
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The Russian AF was always not ready to fight this sort of war. They lacked the appropriate weapons, which is why they lost quite a few contracts in India to the West. It's also why we used Western weapons for our attack on Pakistan in 2019, while still developing Western standard weapons for the Su-30. This is not counting their less than adequate training for any war. PLAAF conducts way better training than the Russians. Only their special forces are good.

As for Iran's weapons, none of that's impressive. It's closer to the standards the West had in the 80s and 90s. Some of their newest SAMs are somewhat decent 'cause of AESA tech, but they are not even in the same generation as SAMs being developed in India or the West. Iran's SAMs were an option for Armenia, but they still chose older Indian SAMs operating with PESA radars and mechanical scan seekers. The Armenians are now asking for next gen SAMs from India. It's not just SAMs, the Iranians are competing for Armenian contracts and are still losing to Indian companies, and now India is their biggest military partner.


The Akash SAM purchase in particular is very big, it's half that of IAF's own order.

India's competing with China in Brazil, Akash vs Sky Dragon 50. So that will be interesting.
 
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Nobody deserves this more that Russia, they are the primary architect of all this chaos.

So much for Air Defence systems...what a joke. You would expect them to atleast setup a few in and around the area.
 
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Three months later, we will see whether Israel is able to defeat Hezbollah. Before October 8, 2023, everyone believed that Hamas's doom had come and he would ignite the fire of Islamic resistance with his life. However, now it seems that the incompetence, cruelty and cowardice of the Israeli Army have plunged Israel into a disaster. We have seen red arrows appear on the heads of countless Israeli soldiers. Israel can only rely on the intelligence capabilities of Mossad and the strike force of its own air force, but the final outcome of the war still depends on the army infantry.

Why is there is a 3 month-limit for Hezbollah? The politics is different. Gaza is inside Israel, so there's a 3-month limit for Hamas before Trump's unpredictablity comes into the picture. But Hezbollah is in Lebanon, a foreign country, so the rules for them are different. The war with Hezbollah can go on for years, so time doesn't matter to the Israelis here. It's a problem for India, China and the rest of the world 'cause of potential oil disruption.

Anyway, I think the Israelis are doing well in Gaza. They already stated last year that the war in Gaza will take a very long time.
Israel's war with Hamas militants in Gaza will continue for "many more months", Israel's army chief has said. "There are no magic solutions," Herzi Halevi told reporters. On Monday PM Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the campaign was "not close to being over".

Given their own statements, they seem to have given themselves a December 2024 deadline.
Israel’s national security adviser says the continuing war on Gaza is likely to last through the end of the year. In an interview with Israel’s Kan public broadcaster on Wednesday, Tzachi Hanegbi said “we are expecting another seven months of fighting” to destroy the military and governing capabilities of Hamas and the smaller Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) group.

The Israelis are being very efficient, given the entire area has over 2 million people and has seen only 40,000 deaths.

Not everyone can be as good as India at this, but the Israelis are doing well.