Assessing India’s nascent nuclear triad
With tensions rising in the Indo-Pacific, India is making progress in developing its nuclear triad. Ongoing developments and acquisitions should help improve the capabilities and credibility of India’s nuclear forces.
India’s incipient nuclear triad has been bolstered by recent events, some well publicised by New Delhi, others less so. After more than a decade since development began, the
Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) had its first user trial – conducted by India’s Strategic Forces Command – on 27 October 2021. The test was announced by the Ministry of Defence. Less heralded was the apparent launch in late November of India’s third nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), which is currently sitting in the water at the Naval Dockyard in Visakhapatnam. These events have occurred against the backdrop of growing tensions between India and China.
New Delhi’s continuing development of its nuclear-delivery systems is driven by a need to counter Beijing’s growing nuclear capability. In November 2021, then-Indian Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat, described China as India’s biggest security
threat. The three legs of India’s nuclear forces include air-delivered free-fall weapons, land-based ballistic missiles and, more recently, the beginnings of an SSBN capability.
Range matters
Developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), the
Agni-V was first tested in 2012, with at least eight subsequent trial launches carried out to date, including the
one in October 2021. The DRDO implicitly continues to describe the
Agni-V as an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), rather than as an ICBM, by claiming the system has a range of 5,000 kilometres, which is toward the upper limit of IRBM performance. Its suspected reach likely exceeds 5,500 km, the minimum range for an ICBM. More importantly, at least from New Delhi’s perspective, if deployed to basing options in southern India that are beyond the range of Chinese medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) and IRBMs (which can strike targets in northern parts of India), the
Agni-V places targets across China within reach.
The DRDO is also drawing on guidance and propulsion technology from the
Agni-V as part of the recapitalisation of India’s MRBM inventory. A second test firing of the two-stage solid-fuel
Agni-P was conducted on 18 December 2021. The DRDO has
said it plans to replace India’s older
Agni-I and -II short-range ballistic missiles with the newer system, which the DRDO
has described as being ‘nuclear capable’ and highly accurate. The IISS estimates that India has 12
Agni-I and eight
Agni-II launchers in service.
Beneath the surface
The sea-based leg of India’s triad is progressing, though New Delhi has so far been more reticent to discuss or disclose any details about this programme. Satellite imagery of what is likely the third SSBN has shown it berthed at the Visakhapatnam Naval Dockyard. While the Indian Navy has made no announcement regarding the unnamed hull, its length, estimated to be more than 120 metres, suggests it is an SSBN, as does the raised missile compartment to the rear of the sail. Notably, the latest hull is longer than those of the first two
Arihant-class boats, which may well indicate the third
Arihant class is being built with a larger missile compartment. Whereas the first two submarines, INS
Arihant and INS
Arighat, have a four-tube configuration, the latest hull may have an eight-tube compartment.
It is believed that
Arihant and
Arighat are able to carry up to 12 K-15 short-range submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). These are the first SLBMs developed by India. Given their comparatively small size, three K-15s can be accommodated in each missile launch tube. However, the K-15’s utility is limited by its 700 km range, which means, in a conflict with Pakistan, it would be confined to targets in the south of the country. The launch submarine’s room for manoeuvre would also be restricted, reducing its ability to remain hidden while at sea. To enhance the reach of India’s SSBNs, the DRDO has also been developing a longer-range SLBM, the K-4, for at least a decade. According to the DRDO, the K-4 is intended to have a 3,500 km range. Were the third
Arihant class and any follow-on boats of this class to have eight launch tubes, combined with the eventual introduction of the K-4, this would increase the credibility of the sea-based leg of India’s deterrent forces.
Despite ongoing development and acquisition,
India’s nuclear doctrine is based on what it views as a credible minimum deterrent and a no first-use policy. Its emphasis on fielding a triad likely reflects New Delhi’s perceptions of, and the need to respond to, Chinese and, to a lesser extent, Pakistani nuclear developments. It also reflects rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific region.
With tensions rising in the Indo-Pacific, India is making progress in developing its nuclear triad. Ongoing developments and acquisitions should help improve the capabilities and credibility of India’s nuclear forces.
www.iiss.org