India-Nepal Relations

[Ashutosh]

The logic is what is CPEC for? For Indian Market? No for Chinese presence in the region.
Is the dam they are building for revenue/power generation? No for bribing the leaders and making their presence. You think the leaders there approving the project because they want to fulfil the energy requirements? No

Nepal has already made a statement that they will be a part of OBOR.

The entire OBOR Project is for creeping Chinese neo-Colonialism. What is your Argument ? or Just the whine that India is losing and the Entire Indian Establishment is doing nothing ? Geopolitics is a game of never ending moves. And most of India's neighborhood is secure, barring Maldives.

 

[screambowl]

The entire OBOR Project is for creeping Chinese neo-Colonialism. What is your Argument ? or Just the whine that India is losing and the Entire Indian Establishment is doing nothing ? Geopolitics is a game of never ending moves. And most of India's neighborhood is secure, barring Maldives.

Yeah correct that's why Kulbhushan Jadhav was picked up by Pakistanis from neighbourhood, very secure.
After 2 decades a Pakistani leader lands for the first time in Kathmandu, indeed very secure.
India had to carry out surgical strikes inside Myanmar, very secure. The camps are still there and in the end they had to talk to Khaplang.
Bangladeshis allowing chinese to build an industry park worth 10 billion dollars. very secure.

Now I bring you to the most and major threat surrounding India. The opposition parties in Indian's neighbouring countries.
China has been able to bring opposition parties in most of the Indian neighbourhood to it's side. This is the biggest threat prevailing for India.
China will use the democratic process in these country to bring the opposition back to power and once it comes , India has to face a lot of trouble.

 

[Ashutosh]

Yeah correct that's why Kulbhushan Jadhav was picked up by Pakistanis from neighbourhood, very secure.
After 2 decades a Pakistani leader lands for the first time in Kathmandu, indeed very secure.
India had to carry out surgical strikes inside Myanmar, very secure. The camps are still there and in the end they had to talk to Khaplang.
Bangladeshis allowing chinese to build an industry park worth 10 billion dollars. very secure.

Now I bring you to the most and major threat surrounding India. The opposition parties in Indian's neighbouring countries.
China has been able to bring opposition parties in most of the Indian neighbourhood to it's side. This is the biggest threat prevailing for India.
China will use the democratic process in these country to bring the opposition back to power and once it comes , India has to face a lot of trouble.

You are seeing what you want to see.

Has India left him dying there ? Nope. In espionage such things happen, and India's response has been to use all channels to get him back.

Our OPs in Nepal have never been stronger, Did you forget the PA guy who just disappeared in Nepal. We have had always done ops in Myanmar, publicly declaring hot pursuits/"Surgical strikes" in Myanmar territory is new, which only shows the co-ordination between Myanmar and India... and finally talks with Khaplang are on not because we are on the losing side, because they have no where to hide. Bangladesh is well, for all practical purposes, firmly secure, and about those Chinese dollars currently its not close to Indian investment. and we will see If Bangladesh gets 10 billion Dollars worth of unservicabel loans, If and when they come.

BD Investment status in Million $ :

...
As far as the political maneuvering in democracies is concerned, it is a never ending game we have done it numerous times in the past and we will do it in the future, some moves China will win sometime we will. Did you forget how The Sri LAnkan opposition won Elections there?

 

[screambowl]

Bangladesh is well, for all practical purposes, firmly secure, and about those Chinese dollars currently its not close to Indian investment. and we will see If Bangladesh gets 10 billion Dollars worth of unservicabel loans, If and when they come.

This is your wrong perception. And data is irrelevant.
I have been to bangladesh and from construction of buildings to houses and textile machinery everything there is Chinese and they are really doing good. Dhaka has moved ahead of Kolkata when it comes to development. Had they remained in Indian sphere they would have remained underdeveloped that is the perception of Bangladeshis and slowly Nepalese too going to have the similar perception about India.

The problem is neither we develop ourselves nor we let others develop with dirty politics. This is a very common perception about Indians.

As far as the political maneuvering in democracies is concerned, it is a never ending game we have done it numerous times in the past and we will do it in the future, some moves China will win sometime we will. Did you forget how The Sri LAnkan opposition won Elections there?

You haven't got the point I am making.
I said, even the opposition was never pro Chinese a decade back now they are and that's a major threat. One of the major party in all neighbouring countries is Pro China. That is the point.

Did you forget the PA guy who just disappeared in Nepal. We have had always done ops in Myanmar, publicly declaring hot pursuits/"Surgical strikes"

Oh really well about that PA guy where was Indian presence when whole of the royal family died. I don't want to talk much and reveal things.
How many so called secret pursuits you have known of this magnitude? And how many Sukma's happened before?

 

[_Anonymous_]

Oh really well about that PA guy where was Indian presence when whole of the royal family died. I don't want to talk much and reveal things.
How many so called secret pursuits you have known of this magnitude? And how many Sukma's happened before?

You seem to have inside info , Sir ? Are you serving in the armed forces by any chance ?

 

[screambowl]

You seem to have inside info , Sir ? Are you serving in the armed forces by any chance ?

Ofcourse not but these things are known and every nepali knows that it's India's failure to protect their royal family and since then Nepal has gone out of hands. The failure of so called policy makers and officers led to this mayhem and trust factor is no more there. No matter what India does the loss of royal family is the biggest set back to India. You need to visit places and talk yourself to the people.

Even if India today donates 50 Billion to Nepal they will not trust us. This is the bad spot India has on it's face.

Two reasons :

1. They thought India is a Hindu majority and we are a Hindu nation so we need to support eachother.
2. The royals had very warm and very close relations to Indian royalties and India

By the loss of the royals, the fabric of relations and trust is loss.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Ofcourse not but these things are known and every nepali knows that it's India's failure to protect their royal family and since then Nepal has gone out of hands. The failure of so called policy makers and officers led to this mayhem and trust factor is no more there. No matter what India does the loss of royal family is the biggest set back to India. You need to visit places and talk yourself to the people.

Even if India today donates 50 Billion to Nepal they will not trust us. This is the bad spot India has on it's face.

Two reasons :

1. They thought India is a Hindu majority and we are a Hindu nation so we need to support eachother.
2. The royals had very warm and very close relations to Indian royalties and India

By the loss of the royals, the fabric of relations and trust is loss.

You're very knowledgeable. You should post more often on foreign affairs and strategic matters . There was a member here - hellfire . He used to act like he knew a lot . Whereas members like you who are so knowledgeable hardly post .

You ought to post more often so that members like me can get to benefit from your profound experience.

Please tell me , Sir , are you by any chance a diplomat ?

 

[Bharath]

Nepal enjoys open border policy with India. Let Nepal have open borders with China and they can see how they will be displaced within a few months (Tibet is over run with Han chinese).

frankly, I would like Nepal, Pakistan, BD and SL to go into Chinese hands. hear me out before you bash me:
1) it gives India time to grow and build itself
2) It lets each of these countries get to know the chinese game
3) I would rather want these countries to choose India by their own choice (after checking both sides) instead of being coerced.

what SL went through with Hambantota is just a sample. I am waiting for CPEC to finish and start showing returns. I want to see how developed Pakistanis become after that.

 

[screambowl]

Nepal enjoys open border policy with India. Let Nepal have open borders with China and they can see how they will be displaced within a few months (Tibet is over run with Han chinese).

frankly, I would like Nepal, Pakistan, BD and SL to go into Chinese hands. hear me out before you bash me:
1) it gives India time to grow and build itself
2) It lets each of these countries get to know the chinese game
3) I would rather want these countries to choose India by their own choice (after checking both sides) instead of being coerced.

what SL went through with Hambantota is just a sample. I am waiting for CPEC to finish and start showing returns. I want to see how developed Pakistanis become after that.

Exactly, this is best way to teach them lesson. The more you tell them not to be under Chinese sphere , more they will do so to tell India that they are sovereign. At a point of time, let them realize theirselves, let them come to India for help. India just need to protect it's assets there.

 

[Bali78]

Nepal enjoys open border policy with India. Let Nepal have open borders with China and they can see how they will be displaced within a few months (Tibet is over run with Han chinese).

frankly, I would like Nepal, Pakistan, BD and SL to go into Chinese hands. hear me out before you bash me:
1) it gives India time to grow and build itself
2) It lets each of these countries get to know the chinese game
3) I would rather want these countries to choose India by their own choice (after checking both sides) instead of being coerced.

what SL went through with Hambantota is just a sample. I am waiting for CPEC to finish and start showing returns. I want to see how developed Pakistanis become after that.

I have a very close Pakistani friend and he is one of those sensible types(a rare breed among Pakistanis ). When CPEC was declared 3 years back, he was ecstatic that finally something good is happening and Pakistan economy will revive.
These days he is busy selling his ancestral properties and moving money out of Pakistan before pak rupee goes for a free fall .

This is precisely the situation all these countries are going to face and Sri Lanka has already learnt the lesson. Unfortunately, it will be too late by then. The corrupt leaders who sold their countries to China would have settled down in some western country with a hefty bank balance at Cayman island leaving their countrymen in a financial mess!!

 

[_Anonymous_]

Nepal enjoys open border policy with India. Let Nepal have open borders with China and they can see how they will be displaced within a few months (Tibet is over run with Han chinese).

frankly, I would like Nepal, Pakistan, BD and SL to go into Chinese hands. hear me out before you bash me:
1) it gives India time to grow and build itself
2) It lets each of these countries get to know the chinese game
3) I would rather want these countries to choose India by their own choice (after checking both sides) instead of being coerced.

what SL went through with Hambantota is just a sample. I am waiting for CPEC to finish and start showing returns. I want to see how developed Pakistanis become after that.

There's a slight fallacy in this thought process . I'm reckoning that's precisely how the MEA worked out this one . But the Chinese were one step ahead here . In case the commercial investments don't work out , the Chinese will always arm twist these host nations to cede control and convert those investments into strategic assets . Is there any guarantee that Hambantota will in the not so distant future not act as a base for PLAN ?

Apart from the above listed concern , it also enables China to inveigle itself with the political , bureaucratic and the military classes and establish a pro China faction viz Pakistan - though in case of Pakistan , unarguably , one doesn't require any efforts to draw them into an anti India coalition .In continuation , our efforts should've been directed to prevent or slow down such endeavours by China to the fullest extent possible . This, unfortunately ,wasn't how the UPA approached this problem .

In other words, we'd see a Cold War - Version 2.0 - a repeat of Cold War style politics which yielded us a Vietnam an Afghanistan among other troubled spots .

 

[Bharath]

the Chinese will always arm twist these host nations to cede control and convert those investments into strategic assets

you just need to wait it out. you cant convert a nation into a strategic partner by force of money - it wont last long. you can only have a strong symbiotic relationship. every other kind of relationship - thats based on the strength of one partner or weakness of the other - wont last long.

 

[Vicky]

China will even buy the electricity or in addition to that they will install an industry complex near dam for power utilization. They have money.

And they have to agree whatever Chinese decides to pay. Moreover you cant simply ask to move ur population to remote areas.

 

[screambowl]

In case the commercial investments don't work out , the Chinese will always arm twist these host nations to cede control and convert those investments into strategic assets

The so called commercial incentives taken by China is just a disguise, as I already posted in my previous post that , they do not have plans to generate any revenue or fulfill Nepal's energy demands, they are there to be present and create strategic depth. No matter if India buys electricity or not, these projects will run to give chinese presence a cover.
This is how China operates.

 

[_Anonymous_]

you just need to wait it out. you cant convert a nation into a strategic partner by force of money - it wont last long. you can only have a strong symbiotic relationship. every other kind of relationship - thats based on the strength of one partner or weakness of the other - wont last long.

That's not how power politics works . Besides , there can never be friendship and an equal status between a nation the size of China and SL or Nepal . It'd always be an unequal , master - supplicant relationship.

 

[Bharath]

That's not how power politics works . Besides , there can never be friendship and an equal status between a nation the size of China and SL or Nepal . It'd always be an unequal , master - supplicant relationship.

thats not how Nepal India relations worked.
Nepal had open borders with India - yet you dont see Indians swarming and eating up Nepal from within.
Tibet's open borders with China wiped it out of the map.

 

[Bali78]

There's a slight fallacy in this thought process . I'm reckoning that's precisely how the MEA worked out this one . But the Chinese were one step ahead here . In case the commercial investments don't work out , the Chinese will always arm twist these host nations to cede control and convert those investments into strategic assets . Is there any guarantee that Hambantota will in the not so distant future not act as a base for PLAN ?

Apart from the above listed concern , it also enables China to inveigle itself with the political , bureaucratic and the military classes and establish a pro China faction viz Pakistan - though in case of Pakistan , unarguably , one doesn't require any efforts to draw them into an anti India coalition .In continuation , our efforts should've been directed to prevent or slow down such endeavours by China to the fullest extent possible . This, unfortunately ,wasn't how the UPA approached this problem .

In other words, a repeat of Cold War style politics which yielded us a Vietnam an Afghanistan among other troubled spots .

It's always possible. But if things go that far, then people of these countries will revolt and no local government can afford to antagonize their voter base.
When it boils down to money, India,US and Japan can pitch in to rescue these countries like Sri lankan president was hinting. It will be absolutely foolish if China resorts to such tactics. They will loose their control for ever.

 

[_Anonymous_]

thats not how Nepal India relations worked.
Nepal had open borders with India - yet you dont see Indians swarming and eating up Nepal from within.

I guess you haven't travelled much to Nepal then . Their local economy is dominated by our beloved Marwaris . And I'm not referring to the Terai here but also to the Kathmandu valley. All these smaller neighbours of ours will definitely hedge their relationship with us by engaging with China .

What the Myanmar and later the SL relationship with China exposed was the downside of such a one sided relationship . That doesn't always translate to mean that this would serve as a precedent for every nation to steer clear of such a debt trap . Look at Maldives . It's the political survival of the incumbent president that's forcing him to engage China on their terms .You think he's going to think twice before landing Maldives into an SL kind of a debt trap ?

Tibet's open borders with China wiped it out of the map.

Tibet didn't have a choice . They were too backward in every sense to pose a challenge to China . That & they were badly let down by Nehru.

 

[_Anonymous_]

It's always possible. But if things go that far, then people of these countries will revolt and no local government can afford to antagonize their voter base.
When it boils down to money, India,US and Japan can pitch in to rescue these countries like Sri lankan president was hinting. It will be absolutely foolish if China resorts to such tactics. They will loose their control for ever.

I guess the answer to this one will be revealed in due course .

 

[screambowl]

When it boils down to money, India,US and Japan can pitch in to rescue these countries like Sri lankan president was hinting.

That is another threat. Why would you allow some one else pouring in money and you giving access to your backyard be it US or Japan.