India decides not to join mega RCEP trade deal as key concerns not addressed

STEPHEN COHEN

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Dec 4, 2017
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Pretty much what Trump said. Bilateral FTAs are better than these huge trade blocs. Especially for a country like India that lacks trade related advantages.

We already have an FTA with ASEAN, Japan and Korea, and already none of these are in our favour. So it's better to work out these issues first.

ASEAN and the other countries already have FTAs with each other. The main goal of this group (primarily China) was to get India in, and now that's failed.

Free Trade is a False Concept , it is a huge LIE

Ultimately Self interest will Always Prevail

All such agreements can be
And will have to be junked if There is a Domestic political Uprising

That is why Trump has started his Trade wars with ALL countries
 
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randomradio

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Nov 30, 2017
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Free Trade is a False Concept , it is a huge LIE

Ultimately Self interest will Always Prevail

All such agreements can be
And will have to be junked if There is a Domestic political Uprising

That is why Trump has started his Trade wars with ALL countries

Trade is good. But trade in its current form, with only goods and merchandise and no scope for services and profit sharing is not going to go anywhere.
 

jetray

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Mar 15, 2018
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India
Saurav Jha (@SJha1618) Tweeted:
China will be no winner with India dropping out. The whole game was to lure India in. Now Japan and co. will fall back on the Comprehensive & Progressive Agreement For Trans-Pacific Partnership which became effective on 20 December 2018. Watch how RCEP withers away. ( )
Correct, china is actually looking at other markets to fill up the void that will might be left by US trade war. They will simply dump the products into our market at the same time create non-tariff barriers for their market. India has been asking for opening up of pharma market in china but all we have got is endless regulations.

Sooner or later the smaller countries will realize that they neither can export to china nor can they stop the imports. At the best china might import raw materials but finished goods will face stiff competition. Another thing what I have seen is that chinese exporters are using neighboring countries to export their goods to avoid US tariffs. It will make export-import numbers look good for the host countries but wont take them any further.
 

jetray

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Mar 15, 2018
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Trade is good. But trade in its current form, with only goods and merchandise and no scope for services and profit sharing is not going to go anywhere.
Thats exactly what India is arguing with US, asking them open up their services market and free movement of labor (bcos India has surplus!). But as usual we have hit the wall.
 

randomradio

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Nov 30, 2017
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Thats exactly what India is arguing with US, asking them open up their services market and free movement of labor (bcos India has surplus!). But as usual we have hit the wall.

Nothing's gonna happen without WTO making the required changes for Mode 4 services. Bilaterally, India's too weak to do anything.

If we are to teach a lesson to the others, we should bring NRIs with foreign earnings into the Indian income tax net. Since we have a labour surplus, it's time other countries pay for it.
 
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Milspec

सर्वदा शक्तिशाली; सर्वत्र विजय
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Dec 2, 2017
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Free Trade is a False Concept , it is a huge LIE

Ultimately Self interest will Always Prevail

All such agreements can be
And will have to be junked if There is a Domestic political Uprising

That is why Trump has started his Trade wars with ALL countries
its not as black and white.
 
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jetray

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Mar 15, 2018
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India
NRIs with foreign earnings into the Indian income tax net.
Might be quite controversial but agree with it. We cant simply invest, grow and train them while they pay taxes for a foreign country. Its like a raising a child from baby and they finally go onto being financially productive for someone else. It is a terrible loss for us from long term perspective, we are not utilizing our human resources efficiently.
 
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_Anonymous_

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Dec 4, 2017
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Must watch
Mostly agree with Gupta's exposition here particularly his conclusions that in case we have RCEP as our goal, we need to reform in a big way ( except every single government since PVNR & ABV have eschewed the so called 2nd & 3rd gen reforms namely structural reforms. It's telling but one of the conclusions political parties have drawn from those extensive reforms is that reforms are bad for the political longevity of the incumbent government - something political pundits too have endorsed as none of the original reformers retained power be they PVNR Or ABV )except he hasn't explored the Chinese modus operandi much .

In China, one doesn't quite know at what point does the intersection between party end & biz begins. Apart from currency manipulation, tech stealing ( whether outright or thru enforced JVs) , massive subsidy, etc - between all these & what is left out, you actually have the modern day version of the East India Company with a nation of their own & no overlord to answer to unlike in the previous version where the original EIC answered to the government in UK.

Now this is a huge factor to be considered. The Chinese are relentless. This is something which needs revisiting with all the RCEP members maybe a decade down the line especially with those whom the Chinese don't see eye to eye on political matters namely Japan, Vietnam, ANZ & to a lesser extent fence sitters like Indonesia,Malaysia , Thailand, etc.

India needs to reform. No two ways about it and fast. We also need to explore alternate mechanisms for trade pacts viz bilateral ones. But undertaking the second without the first will be as suicidal as the situation we find ourselves today in. Let's not forget that one of the reasons we run a massive deficit with those nations we've signed an FTA with namely ASEAN is coz a good deal of Indian industrialists have gone & set up factories in those nations & are re exporting to India. This also includes China. So much for protectionism at home & availing benefits accrued thru such FTAs.


Finally, we need an experienced team at the helm of the finance & commerce set up with an eye towards the future. Modi has the mandate to undertake the necessary reforms . He needs somebody to draw up the blueprint & road map for it. I don't believe the present incumbents have the "juice" In them to deliver on that front.
 

Nilgiri

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Dec 4, 2017
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This is something which needs revisiting with all the RCEP members maybe a decade down the line especially with those whom the Chinese don't see eye to eye on political matters namely Japan, Vietnam, ANZ & to a lesser extent fence sitters like Indonesia,Malaysia , Thailand, etc.

There will be a good first opportunity to check upon this coming up; ASEAN-India FTA revisiting/renegotiating (at India's pressure last few years especially) early next year (2020). In 2010 when signed by MMS, there was lot of vague promises given by ASEAN to open up specific sectors India asked for.

MMS admin fell for it at their word rather than press the matter...and very little progress has been made in the buffer given so easily by India. But then again the huge problem in next 5 years hadn't quite metastasized and entrenched like they have today, the charge from 2004 onwards was still fresh in mind etc. Whereas they (ASEAN) have made near full use of their competitive advantages - often just being conduit from China by adding few more token MVA % points to a product...sometimes just repackaging even.

With China out of the picture, India can focus lot more and set some precedent for later negotiation of larger sized agreements (if even necessary).
 

_Anonymous_

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Dec 4, 2017
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Yusuf Unjhawala 🇮🇳 (@YusufDFI) Tweeted:
@Gokul_Sahni We have FTA with ASEAN. Japan, SK. Ones not there are China, Aus, NZ. We can work bilateral FTA with Aus & NZ. IMO, the priority for FTA for India should be the US & EU. We have good trade balance with both & our economies complement. Bilateral approach to trade is better ( )


Yusuf Unjhawala 🇮🇳 (@YusufDFI) Tweeted:
India ready for FTA talks with EU after refusing to join China-led RCEP India ready for FTA talks with EU after refusing to join China-led RCEP ( )
 

Guynextdoor

Banned
Dec 19, 2017
3,698
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India
Is there anyplace I can read the entire document for RCEP.

Also why abandon it completely, why not keep arbitrating for a deal that is favorable?

they want to finalize a deal. 15 countries have agreed after 7 years of negotiations so they’re going ahead with it. Let them.
 

Guynextdoor

Banned
Dec 19, 2017
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That's one of the options but the only FTA's we've signed with Thailand & Malaysia have proven to be one sided ones against us. I've read somewhere that both these FTA's are up for review by the Commerce Ministry.

On a different note, I'm just watching an interesting discussion on Mirror Now on the massive pollution in N India and particularly Delhi. This has been on for some years. Now, I believe I speak on behalf of most members here when we believed that Modi was the magic bullet to solve basic problems, intractable problems.

Shekhar Gupta & others are of the view that our not signing the RCEP is a self defeating move. For if after nearly 3 decades of opening up the markets we haven't got our act in industry & agriculture, then when will we ever face the world with confidence in our own abilities to face up to world class competition?

He further opines that with the current trend of "MII," tarriff barriers, etc being erected we're back to the IG era of socialism, self reliance, import substitution, gareebi hatao, empty slogans, "hindu rate of growth ", etc .

Sometimes I've the sinking feeling he isn't wrong.

he isn’t wrong but RECEP should not be signed.
 
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_Anonymous_

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