Rafale : les prospects pour l’avion de chasse de Dassault s'envolent !
Rafale: prospects for Dassault's fighter jet soar!
Business is booming for Dassault. Thanks to the Rafale fighter jet, the French company has considerably increased its sales book since 2021. Around the world and on several continents, many countries are turning to the Rafale, representing a reliable technological guarantee while rejecting the hegemony of Russian and American manufacturers.
The list of nations interested in the Rafale is growing. In recent days, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have positioned themselves to acquire units to equip their armies. In South-East Asia and among the former satellites of the USSR, the 4th generation fighter appears to be the hope of modernising ageing fleets dating back to the Cold War. Currently considered to be one of the most capable fighter aircraft in the world, the Rafale seems to represent the aircraft of the "non-aligned". With its latest F4-standard iteration, the Rafale offers increased strike power. Capable of reaching Mach 1.8 (2222 km/h), the fighter can engage aerial targets, support ground troops and strike behind enemy lines, carrying conventional payloads. Armament remains unchanged, with GBU-24 and AASM bombs, Scalp, MICA or Meteor missiles and a Nexter 30 mm single-tube cannon. The F4, which will enter service with the French Air and Space Force in August 2023, will provide pilots with an RBE2 AESA radar and a Scorpion helmet-mounted sight. This technology will enhance detection and interception capabilities, while the helmet will provide an improved information interface for the crew. An attractive proposition, enough to ensure a diplomatic and industrial masterstroke?
Rafale in the former Soviet Union
The strategy is (almost) paying off for the French government and aircraft manufacturer Dassault in the countries of Central Asia. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which border Russia and are former Eastern Bloc countries, seem to be positioning themselves in favour of the Rafale. While a purchase from Kazakhstan seemed uncertain due to its political proximity to Russia and the receipt of four Russian Su-30s in 2022, Astana has expressed its desire to replace dozens of obsolete aircraft by October 2023. The Kazakh air force auctioned off 117 Soviet fighters, including Su-24s, MiG-27s, MiG-29s and MiG-31s. With the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron at the beginning of November and the declared desire of the two countries to extend their economic and industrial collaboration, Kazakhstan has become a key player in the fight against terrorism. As far back as 2021, Kazakhstan purchased 2 A400M Atlas military transport aircraft manufactured by Airbus. If Astana invests in a contract with Dassault, the model could be similar to India's, with a fleet shared between Russian and French aircraft.
Speculation is far more tangible in Uzbekistan, whose most recent fighter aircraft date from before 1991 and the break-up of the USSR. Two aircraft are in the running to replace the Uzbek MiGs and Sukhoi: the South Korean F/A-50 and the Rafale. Dassault could sell 24 F4-standard fighter-bombers to the former communist country. With a winning hand on the fighter manufactured by KAI (Korea Aerospace Industry)? The F/A-50 still has technical and operational uncertainties, and has yet to prove itself once deployed.
A final ex-Soviet country could be Serbia, where the country's president has indicated that he would be able to spend €3 billion to acquire the aircraft in February 2023, whereas the Eurofighter had previously been mooted. However, no follow-up to this initial announcement has been revealed.
The Rafale M, operated by the French Navy, on exercise near the Zaragoza air base in Spain. French Navy, Ministry of Defence
Air supremacy in South-East Asia
While discussions are still at a preliminary stage in Central Asia, other countries further east have decided to modernise their air fleets by opting for the Rafale. One of the big announcements of the summer of 2023 is the signing of a contract with India for the purchase of 3 French submarines and 26 Rafale-Ms for its naval air forces, where they will bolster the fleet of 36 Rafales already integrated into the Indian air force. While this is only an agreement in principle at present, the aircraft manufacturer is working with the Indian government to conclude the sale, and negotiations on the construction of a local assembly line are being discussed in order to meet national needs, but also to keep pace with production for the benefit of other future prospects.
In February 2022, the Indonesian National Army Air Force announced its intention to acquire no fewer than 42 F3-standard Rafales, currently in service with the country's Air and Space Force. No delivery date has been announced by Dassault, but the company stated in August 2023 that 24 aircraft were on order, following the establishment of a "tranche" contract.
In Malaysia, the Rafale seemed to be favoured by officials between 2015 and 2018. But in early 2023, the Malaysian military secured a contract for the delivery of 18 South Korean F/A-50s. As the Golden Eagles are light fighters, they are unlikely to replace all the aircraft already integrated into the Malaysian Air Force, namely the F/A-18 Hornet, Su-30 and MiG-29. Kuala Lumpur's acquisition of the Rafale therefore remains the country's main option for ordering a modern combat aircraft, as tensions with China in the South China Sea remain high.
Bangladesh also appears to be looking to Europe to replace its obsolete aircraft. The Bangladesh Air Force, currently equipped with Chengdu J-7s and MiG-29s, is looking closely at the Airbus Eurofighter and Rafale. While the Rafale seems to have won over the military, Bangladeshi political decision-makers are not as enthusiastic about the idea of equipping themselves with the same fighter aircraft as their Indian neighbour, with whom diplomatic relations are considered delicate. However, Emmanuel Macron's visit to Bangladesh in September 2023 could bode well for finalising a deal for Dassault.
Flying over the Middle East
Dassault is no stranger to the Persian Gulf and the Middle East: in addition to the €16 billion contract for 80 F4-standard Rafales for the United Arab Emirates, the aircraft manufacturer has already supplied 36 Rafales to Qatar after an order placed in 2015 and Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu visited Doha again in July 2023. At the time, the Emirate's dignitaries raised the possibility of a new contract by 2025, aimed at obtaining 24 new fighters over the next decade. Their objective: to follow a strict roadmap for modernising its aircraft, including an F4 standard and a hypothetical future F5.
With a smaller budget of around €3 billion, Iraq also seems interested in buying 14 Rafales. In the midst of restructuring its armed forces and still under threat from jihadist militias, Baghdad expressed its interest in the French fighter jet in May. General Yahya Rasoul pointed to the technological capabilities of the fighter-bomber. To date, there are no documents or agreements in principle to confirm the Iraqi government's intentions, but this is the only aircraft for which an interest has been officially expressed.
What about South America?
American diplomats may have been lobbying for Colombia to replace its 19 Israeli Kfirs with General Dynamics F-16s, but Bogotá's heart seems to be set on the Rafale. In 2022, the Colombian government announced its interest in acquiring 3 or 4 French fighter jets, backed by a "meagre" budget of €600 million. The manufacturer initiated a dialogue to convince the Colombians to increase their order. In vain. But the leaders of the South American country are not discouraged. On the sidelines of the Paris Air Show, held in June 2023, the Colombian president is said to have held talks with Eric Trappier, CEO of Dassault, as reported on a defence website. The target date for rejuvenating the Colombian air force fleet is 2025-2026.
The Iraqi military have had the opportunity to see Rafales flying over Iraq. The F3 standard has even seen its intercompatibility improved with the F-16 IQ. Air and Space Force
Technological and diplomatic masterstroke
Between 2015 and 2021, 156 Rafales will be sold for export by Dassault. By 2022, the aircraft manufacturer will have sold 92 Rafales to foreign countries. The spectre of high-intensity conflicts and the increase in defence budgets are playing a key role in the desire of certain countries to acquire new fighter-bombers. And while Lockheed's 5th-generation F-35 fighter is gaining ground with many of the Atlantic alliance's long-standing allies, the Rafale is winning more and more contracts and is becoming a real diplomatic tool.
Compared with other aircraft, the Rafale's features are very attractive indeed. The Rafale-M, the most expensive aircraft to produce, costs €78 million to buy. In comparison, the F-35 costs an average of $150 million to export, while the Eurofighter tops out at €120 million for non-EU countries, even though it has been beaten by the Rafale in competitions between them. The price per flight hour also makes a difference to the choice of aircraft. According to several parliamentary reports published since 2022, a Rafale costs between €15,000 and €20,000 per flying hour, compared with $41,000 for the F-35 (source: GAO). The operating cost of a Eurofighter is probably lower than the €70,000 / hdv quoted by Italy or Austria, but these bad examples are probably a brake on interested countries. The Swedish Gripen would cost much less, between €10,000 and €15,000 depending on the source. Airbus and €4,500 from Saab. These factors partly explain the current situation for the three competing aircraft proposed by Europe: Eurofighter has not won an export contract since 2015, and the last export order for Gripen dates back to 2014.
While work on the development of a 6th generation fighter is in full swing at Dassault, the Rafale will remain the benchmark aircraft for several decades to come. The French company could well remain a credible alternative to a potential Lockheed monopoly in the air defence sector.
defencesecurityasia.com
