Quelles sont les chances du Rafale en Arabie Saoudite ?
What are the Rafale's chances in Saudi Arabia?
Fabrice Wolf
Summary
Is the Rafale in Saudi Arabia possible? A rumour, relayed by well-informed journalists such as Michel Cabirol of latribune.fr, had been circulating for several months. According to this rumour, Riyadh was actively interested in the French fighter, with a possible long-term order for more than 100 aircraft.
According to these sources, the Saudi authorities wanted above all a modern fighter to replace the 81 or so Tornado IDSs and 62 F-15Cs still in service, one that was neither American, and even ITAR-Free to avoid any interference from Washington, and German-free, to use the expression used at the time, so as not to be subject to the vagaries of the Bundestag.
However, until now, there was no indication that official negotiations had begun between Riyadh and Paris on this subject. What's more, Dassault Aviation has never mentioned the possibility, even off the record, unlike other potential buyers such as India (the Indian Navy's 26 Rafale Ms), Serbia, Colombia and Qatar.
In fact, the information relayed by Michel Cabirol this weekend, according to which Riyadh has asked Dassault Aviation for a formal offer for 54 Rafales, is obviously a major development in this dossier.
Saudi Arabia's frustration over the Typhoon and F-35A
The Saudi request is above all a response to the accumulated frustration caused by the difficulties encountered in recent years in acquiring new fighter aircraft from its two traditional partners, the United States and the United Kingdom.
The Saudi Arabian Air Force has never used a French fighter aircraft, and has remained loyal to the United States from the purchase of the first F-86 Sabre in the 1950s to the order for the highly advanced F-15SA in 2000.
Similarly, since the purchase of British BAe Lightning aircraft in the 1960s, Riyadh has been a loyal customer of British industry when it comes to combat aircraft, having even been the only export customer for the Tornado ADV and IDS, and one of only two for the Lightning, and systematically the largest export customer for its aircraft.
Despite these privileged relations with Washington and London, in recent years Riyadh has been unable to modernise its air forces, and in particular to replace the 81 Tornado IDSs and 61 F-15Cs still in service.
No F-22 or F-35A for the Saudi Air Force
The Saudi Air Force had, in fact, wanted to acquire the F-22 as soon as the American 5ᵉ Generation air superiority fighter entered service. However, as in the case of Japan, Washington refused to export its most advanced fighter, in order to protect the advanced technologies it carries.
In the absence of the F-22, Riyadh turned to the F-35A, which could be exported to close allies of the United States. Here again, as in the case of other countries such as the UAE and Thailand, they were refused permission to export the single-engine fighter, billed as the successor to the F-16, on the pretext that the fighter could only be sold to NATO allies and the US inner circle, such as Japan, Australia and South Korea.
This refusal has led to reactions that have sometimes been epidermal, such as the abandonment of negotiations on a $20 billion arms contract for the UAE, and the start of negotiations with China for Thailand.
German opposition prevents the acquisition of additional Eurofighter Typhoons
For its part, Riyadh could still turn to its British partner, from whom it had already purchased 72 Eurofighter Typhoons in the early 2000s. The Saudi contract included an option for 48 new fighters, which would allow the Saudi Air Force to retire the 81 Tornado IDS still in service.
However, following the Saudi intervention in Yemen, and above all the Khashoggi affair, the Saudi opposition journalist murdered by the country's special services in the Istanbul consulate in October 2018, the German Bundestag refused to deliver parts manufactured by German industry to Great Britain for the desired aircraft, effectively blocking the execution of the option.
Despite protests from the UK and Italy, and Berlin's commitment not to oppose Typhoon exports negotiated by its partners, the issue has remained unresolved ever since, with Germany refusing to back down.
To add to Saudi frustration, when Riyadh announced it was ready to join the GCAP 6ᵉ generation fighter programme led by London with Rome and Tokyo, thus without Germany, it was Japan that opposed Saudi Arabia joining the programme, probably to preserve its industrial perimeter and its weight in the programme.
A request for 54 Rafales formatted to make London and Washington react
Today, the Saudi Air Force has no solution other than turning to other partners to modernise its fighter fleet and replace its Tornado and F-15C aircraft.
This is the background to Saudi Arabia's request to France for the delivery of 54 Rafale fighters. The Saudi request may seem self-evident, given that there is no option in the United States or the United Kingdom, and that there is no way of turning to Moscow or Beijing, at the risk of provoking the ire of Washington and its CAATSA legislation.
What's more, the French twin-engine fighter is now the most exported aircraft of its generation in the world, trailing only the F-35 in the overall fighter aircraft market for several years.
However, the formatting of the Saudi offer reveals Riyadh's underlying intention. Indeed, if Saudi Arabia had fully intended to turn to the French fighter to modernise its air force, the request would not have been for 54 aircraft, just enough to equip two squadrons and devote six fighters to pilot training and conversion.
At a time when the Saudi authorities are constantly seeking to develop their own defence industry, the request would very probably have been for a larger number of fighters, more than 100, enough to justify a major industrial partnership and perhaps even local assembly.
Such negotiations would obviously have taken much longer than the few weeks given by Riyadh, which wants an offer from Dassault Aviation by November 10.
In fact, this is clearly a counter-proposal designed to put pressure on London, and by transitive, on Berlin, to allow the option to be exercised, and thus the acquisition of 48 additional Typhoons, but also on Washington.
Indeed, if Riyadh were to turn to the French Rafale, this would pose a direct threat to future British exports, in particular for the future GCAP, for which Saudi Arabia was to be a natural export belt for London.
So is the Rafale just a decoy to get London and Washington to react? It probably is. However, this is a unique opportunity for Dassault Aviation, which has an open channel of negotiation with Riyadh to make its case. And there are many of them.
Real opportunities for Dassault Aviation's Rafale in Saudi Arabia
Never before in recent history has the French defence aeronautics industry been in such a favourable position to convince Saudi Arabia to turn to its fighter aircraft, and perhaps to replace one of the Kingdom's two traditional partners in this field.
And the stakes are high, since with over 400 combat aircraft, all imported, Saudi Arabia is now the world's second largest export market, second only to India, which is also making huge efforts to develop its own defence aeronautics industry.
A twin-engine fighter with a strong following in the Middle East
Firstly, the Rafale is a twin-engine fighter, not a single-engine fighter like its Mirage predecessors. Since the Lightning, the Saudi Air Force has always preferred to acquire twin-engine fighters such as the F-15, the Tornado and the Typhoon. As such, they are one of the only air forces in the Middle East to have shunned the American F-16.
In fact, with the Rafale, and apart from the Mirage 4000 episode which was not supported by Paris, this is the first time that Dassault has had a fighter aircraft that meets overall Saudi requirements, with the performance, range and carrying capacity demanded by the kingdom's air force, especially as the Rafale is reputed to be more capable than the Typhoon for attack missions, which was precisely the mission of the Tornado IDS to be replaced.
What's more, the French fighter is not only the most exported aircraft of its generation, it has also been the best-selling fighter in the Middle East in recent years, outperforming even the F-16 in this theatre over the past 10 years. Egypt (54 Rafales), Qatar (36 fighters) and the United Arab Emirates (80 aircraft) are all using or have acquired Dassault Aviation's flagship.
What's more, Egypt has already announced that it wants to increase its Rafale fleet to 80 fighters with a future order for Rafale F4s, as has Qatar, which is reportedly negotiating with Paris for 26 additional aircraft.
Not only do these orders attest to the quality of the French fighter, they also open up opportunities for operational and, above all, industrial cooperation in the Middle East, of which Saudi Arabia could be the epicentre if the Kingdom were to make the French fighter the successor to its Tornado and F-15C.
Rafale assembly guaranteed until 2035 and beyond
The success of the Rafale, in the Middle East and beyond, has also given the French fighter a rare virtue today. Apart from the American F-35, it is the only modern Western fighter that is operational today, and whose assembly is guaranteed until 2035 by its order book, and probably until 2040, with future orders.
The sustainability of the assembly line, and with it that of the subcontracting chain, is a key factor in the decision to buy a fighter aircraft. It enables additional fighters to be ordered, if necessary, to increase the size of the fleet, or to compensate for attrition, whether operational or not.
What's more, unlike the Typhoon or the F-15, the Rafale fleet is very young overall, since the first export deliveries took place in 2017, while the French air force plans to acquire the fighter until at least 2035, and certainly beyond, if the SCAF programme were to slip.
Lastly, the Rafale has a relatively large number of prospects, including, as already mentioned, some operators wishing to expand their fleets, such as Egypt and Qatar, but also Greece and India.
As a result, the French fighter is now undoubtedly the least risky and most perennial aircraft on the market, including for the Saudi Air Force, while simultaneously being ITAR and German free.
The Rafale F5's sledgehammer argument
In addition to these two already significant advantages, there is another argument that could be described as a sledgehammer: the arrival of the new Rafale F5 standard in 2030. Detailed during the parliamentary debates for the 2024-2030 Military Planning Law, the Rafale F5 standard will represent a key step in the evolution of the French fighter, equipping it with capabilities traditionally found on 5ᵉ and 6ᵉ generation fighters.
As the Rafale F5 and its systems have already been detailed in a number of articles published on this site, here we'll just skim over the key points, such as an evolution towards a system of systems, the arrival of new munitions, and above all the ability to implement and control combat drones.
In addition to the Remote Carrier Expendable airborne UAVs developed by MBDA for the SCAF and Rafale, the 2024-2030 LPM has also provided for the development of a combat UAV derived from the Neuron demonstrator, capable of acting as a Loyal Wingman.
These new operational appendages will enable the Rafale F5 to match 5ᵉ generation fighters such as the F-35 for deep strike missions and above all for the elimination of opposing anti-aircraft defences, taking advantage of the advanced stealth of its UAVs to compensate for its lower stealth.
The Rafale F5 project also gives the fighter programme a medium-term perspective, on which Dassault can effectively communicate, and put itself, in this field, on an equal footing with the Anglo-Saxons, who are traditionally better off in this area than France.
The new French defence industrial partnership doctrine
Finally, Dassault's negotiators can now draw on France's new defence industrial partnership doctrine, which was unveiled covertly a few months ago, but has since been put into practice in an increasingly obvious manner.
Until now, Paris confined itself to its European neighbours when it came to large-scale joint defence programmes, but France's recent disappointments in this area, whether with Germany, the UK or Italy, have led it to consider turning to more distant partners, notably the largest international customers of its defence industry.
This new doctrine now enables French negotiators to meet Saudi expectations for developing the kingdom's defence industry, and even to imagine extensive international cooperation involving Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and even, but this is unlikely, Qatar, in connection with the Rafale.
This cooperation could subsequently evolve towards the development of a new generation regional fighter with the support of the French defence industry, in a cooperation comparable to that currently being negotiated around the Indian AMCA and TEDBF programmes.
So, even if Riyadh cannot join GCAP because of the Japanese veto, nor SCAF because of the very likely German veto, Paris and the French aerospace industry are now in a position to propose a medium- and long-term vision to Riyadh and its close allies.
Conclusion
As we can see, with its 54 fighter jets, and the timeframe given to Dassault to respond, it is very likely that the proposal requested by Saudi Arabia is aimed at getting the Kingdom's traditional partners to react in order to unblock the obstacles currently preventing the acquisition of Typhoons, and perhaps F-35s, for the Saudi Air Force.
So it is certainly far too early to break out the champagne. In fact, no one is doing so.
On the other hand, it is also undeniable that this official Saudi request is enabling Dassault Aviation not only to build an effective offer that will obviously challenge the British Typhoon, but above all to deploy arguments that the European fighter, but also the American fighters that can potentially be exported to Riyadh, such as the F-15EX, cannot match.
In fact, the Saudi door is now slightly ajar to let the Rafale into the country. But with the right arguments, the necessary determination, and a bit of luck, a crack in the door is sometimes enough to move the lines. That's all we can wish for the Rafale sales team, who will certainly be getting little sleep over the coming days.
What are the Rafale's chances in Saudi Arabia?
Fabrice Wolf
Summary
- Saudi Arabia's frustration over the Typhoon and F-35A
- No F-22 or F-35A for the Saudi Air Force
- German opposition prevents purchase of additional Eurofighter Typhoons
- A request for 54 Rafales formatted to make London and Washington react
- Real chances for Dassault Aviation's Rafale in Saudi Arabia
- A twin-engine fighter popular in the Middle East
- Rafale assembly guaranteed until 2035 and beyond
- The strong argument for the Rafale F5
- France's new defence industrial partnership doctrine
- Conclusion
Is the Rafale in Saudi Arabia possible? A rumour, relayed by well-informed journalists such as Michel Cabirol of latribune.fr, had been circulating for several months. According to this rumour, Riyadh was actively interested in the French fighter, with a possible long-term order for more than 100 aircraft.
According to these sources, the Saudi authorities wanted above all a modern fighter to replace the 81 or so Tornado IDSs and 62 F-15Cs still in service, one that was neither American, and even ITAR-Free to avoid any interference from Washington, and German-free, to use the expression used at the time, so as not to be subject to the vagaries of the Bundestag.
However, until now, there was no indication that official negotiations had begun between Riyadh and Paris on this subject. What's more, Dassault Aviation has never mentioned the possibility, even off the record, unlike other potential buyers such as India (the Indian Navy's 26 Rafale Ms), Serbia, Colombia and Qatar.
In fact, the information relayed by Michel Cabirol this weekend, according to which Riyadh has asked Dassault Aviation for a formal offer for 54 Rafales, is obviously a major development in this dossier.
Saudi Arabia's frustration over the Typhoon and F-35A
The Saudi request is above all a response to the accumulated frustration caused by the difficulties encountered in recent years in acquiring new fighter aircraft from its two traditional partners, the United States and the United Kingdom.
The Saudi Arabian Air Force has never used a French fighter aircraft, and has remained loyal to the United States from the purchase of the first F-86 Sabre in the 1950s to the order for the highly advanced F-15SA in 2000.
Similarly, since the purchase of British BAe Lightning aircraft in the 1960s, Riyadh has been a loyal customer of British industry when it comes to combat aircraft, having even been the only export customer for the Tornado ADV and IDS, and one of only two for the Lightning, and systematically the largest export customer for its aircraft.
Despite these privileged relations with Washington and London, in recent years Riyadh has been unable to modernise its air forces, and in particular to replace the 81 Tornado IDSs and 61 F-15Cs still in service.
No F-22 or F-35A for the Saudi Air Force
The Saudi Air Force had, in fact, wanted to acquire the F-22 as soon as the American 5ᵉ Generation air superiority fighter entered service. However, as in the case of Japan, Washington refused to export its most advanced fighter, in order to protect the advanced technologies it carries.
In the absence of the F-22, Riyadh turned to the F-35A, which could be exported to close allies of the United States. Here again, as in the case of other countries such as the UAE and Thailand, they were refused permission to export the single-engine fighter, billed as the successor to the F-16, on the pretext that the fighter could only be sold to NATO allies and the US inner circle, such as Japan, Australia and South Korea.
This refusal has led to reactions that have sometimes been epidermal, such as the abandonment of negotiations on a $20 billion arms contract for the UAE, and the start of negotiations with China for Thailand.
German opposition prevents the acquisition of additional Eurofighter Typhoons
For its part, Riyadh could still turn to its British partner, from whom it had already purchased 72 Eurofighter Typhoons in the early 2000s. The Saudi contract included an option for 48 new fighters, which would allow the Saudi Air Force to retire the 81 Tornado IDS still in service.
However, following the Saudi intervention in Yemen, and above all the Khashoggi affair, the Saudi opposition journalist murdered by the country's special services in the Istanbul consulate in October 2018, the German Bundestag refused to deliver parts manufactured by German industry to Great Britain for the desired aircraft, effectively blocking the execution of the option.
Despite protests from the UK and Italy, and Berlin's commitment not to oppose Typhoon exports negotiated by its partners, the issue has remained unresolved ever since, with Germany refusing to back down.
To add to Saudi frustration, when Riyadh announced it was ready to join the GCAP 6ᵉ generation fighter programme led by London with Rome and Tokyo, thus without Germany, it was Japan that opposed Saudi Arabia joining the programme, probably to preserve its industrial perimeter and its weight in the programme.
A request for 54 Rafales formatted to make London and Washington react
Today, the Saudi Air Force has no solution other than turning to other partners to modernise its fighter fleet and replace its Tornado and F-15C aircraft.
This is the background to Saudi Arabia's request to France for the delivery of 54 Rafale fighters. The Saudi request may seem self-evident, given that there is no option in the United States or the United Kingdom, and that there is no way of turning to Moscow or Beijing, at the risk of provoking the ire of Washington and its CAATSA legislation.
What's more, the French twin-engine fighter is now the most exported aircraft of its generation in the world, trailing only the F-35 in the overall fighter aircraft market for several years.
However, the formatting of the Saudi offer reveals Riyadh's underlying intention. Indeed, if Saudi Arabia had fully intended to turn to the French fighter to modernise its air force, the request would not have been for 54 aircraft, just enough to equip two squadrons and devote six fighters to pilot training and conversion.
At a time when the Saudi authorities are constantly seeking to develop their own defence industry, the request would very probably have been for a larger number of fighters, more than 100, enough to justify a major industrial partnership and perhaps even local assembly.
Such negotiations would obviously have taken much longer than the few weeks given by Riyadh, which wants an offer from Dassault Aviation by November 10.
In fact, this is clearly a counter-proposal designed to put pressure on London, and by transitive, on Berlin, to allow the option to be exercised, and thus the acquisition of 48 additional Typhoons, but also on Washington.
Indeed, if Riyadh were to turn to the French Rafale, this would pose a direct threat to future British exports, in particular for the future GCAP, for which Saudi Arabia was to be a natural export belt for London.
So is the Rafale just a decoy to get London and Washington to react? It probably is. However, this is a unique opportunity for Dassault Aviation, which has an open channel of negotiation with Riyadh to make its case. And there are many of them.
Real opportunities for Dassault Aviation's Rafale in Saudi Arabia
Never before in recent history has the French defence aeronautics industry been in such a favourable position to convince Saudi Arabia to turn to its fighter aircraft, and perhaps to replace one of the Kingdom's two traditional partners in this field.
And the stakes are high, since with over 400 combat aircraft, all imported, Saudi Arabia is now the world's second largest export market, second only to India, which is also making huge efforts to develop its own defence aeronautics industry.
A twin-engine fighter with a strong following in the Middle East
Firstly, the Rafale is a twin-engine fighter, not a single-engine fighter like its Mirage predecessors. Since the Lightning, the Saudi Air Force has always preferred to acquire twin-engine fighters such as the F-15, the Tornado and the Typhoon. As such, they are one of the only air forces in the Middle East to have shunned the American F-16.
In fact, with the Rafale, and apart from the Mirage 4000 episode which was not supported by Paris, this is the first time that Dassault has had a fighter aircraft that meets overall Saudi requirements, with the performance, range and carrying capacity demanded by the kingdom's air force, especially as the Rafale is reputed to be more capable than the Typhoon for attack missions, which was precisely the mission of the Tornado IDS to be replaced.
What's more, the French fighter is not only the most exported aircraft of its generation, it has also been the best-selling fighter in the Middle East in recent years, outperforming even the F-16 in this theatre over the past 10 years. Egypt (54 Rafales), Qatar (36 fighters) and the United Arab Emirates (80 aircraft) are all using or have acquired Dassault Aviation's flagship.
What's more, Egypt has already announced that it wants to increase its Rafale fleet to 80 fighters with a future order for Rafale F4s, as has Qatar, which is reportedly negotiating with Paris for 26 additional aircraft.
Not only do these orders attest to the quality of the French fighter, they also open up opportunities for operational and, above all, industrial cooperation in the Middle East, of which Saudi Arabia could be the epicentre if the Kingdom were to make the French fighter the successor to its Tornado and F-15C.
Rafale assembly guaranteed until 2035 and beyond
The success of the Rafale, in the Middle East and beyond, has also given the French fighter a rare virtue today. Apart from the American F-35, it is the only modern Western fighter that is operational today, and whose assembly is guaranteed until 2035 by its order book, and probably until 2040, with future orders.
The sustainability of the assembly line, and with it that of the subcontracting chain, is a key factor in the decision to buy a fighter aircraft. It enables additional fighters to be ordered, if necessary, to increase the size of the fleet, or to compensate for attrition, whether operational or not.
What's more, unlike the Typhoon or the F-15, the Rafale fleet is very young overall, since the first export deliveries took place in 2017, while the French air force plans to acquire the fighter until at least 2035, and certainly beyond, if the SCAF programme were to slip.
Lastly, the Rafale has a relatively large number of prospects, including, as already mentioned, some operators wishing to expand their fleets, such as Egypt and Qatar, but also Greece and India.
As a result, the French fighter is now undoubtedly the least risky and most perennial aircraft on the market, including for the Saudi Air Force, while simultaneously being ITAR and German free.
The Rafale F5's sledgehammer argument
In addition to these two already significant advantages, there is another argument that could be described as a sledgehammer: the arrival of the new Rafale F5 standard in 2030. Detailed during the parliamentary debates for the 2024-2030 Military Planning Law, the Rafale F5 standard will represent a key step in the evolution of the French fighter, equipping it with capabilities traditionally found on 5ᵉ and 6ᵉ generation fighters.
As the Rafale F5 and its systems have already been detailed in a number of articles published on this site, here we'll just skim over the key points, such as an evolution towards a system of systems, the arrival of new munitions, and above all the ability to implement and control combat drones.
In addition to the Remote Carrier Expendable airborne UAVs developed by MBDA for the SCAF and Rafale, the 2024-2030 LPM has also provided for the development of a combat UAV derived from the Neuron demonstrator, capable of acting as a Loyal Wingman.
These new operational appendages will enable the Rafale F5 to match 5ᵉ generation fighters such as the F-35 for deep strike missions and above all for the elimination of opposing anti-aircraft defences, taking advantage of the advanced stealth of its UAVs to compensate for its lower stealth.
The Rafale F5 project also gives the fighter programme a medium-term perspective, on which Dassault can effectively communicate, and put itself, in this field, on an equal footing with the Anglo-Saxons, who are traditionally better off in this area than France.
The new French defence industrial partnership doctrine
Finally, Dassault's negotiators can now draw on France's new defence industrial partnership doctrine, which was unveiled covertly a few months ago, but has since been put into practice in an increasingly obvious manner.
Until now, Paris confined itself to its European neighbours when it came to large-scale joint defence programmes, but France's recent disappointments in this area, whether with Germany, the UK or Italy, have led it to consider turning to more distant partners, notably the largest international customers of its defence industry.
This new doctrine now enables French negotiators to meet Saudi expectations for developing the kingdom's defence industry, and even to imagine extensive international cooperation involving Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and even, but this is unlikely, Qatar, in connection with the Rafale.
This cooperation could subsequently evolve towards the development of a new generation regional fighter with the support of the French defence industry, in a cooperation comparable to that currently being negotiated around the Indian AMCA and TEDBF programmes.
So, even if Riyadh cannot join GCAP because of the Japanese veto, nor SCAF because of the very likely German veto, Paris and the French aerospace industry are now in a position to propose a medium- and long-term vision to Riyadh and its close allies.
Conclusion
As we can see, with its 54 fighter jets, and the timeframe given to Dassault to respond, it is very likely that the proposal requested by Saudi Arabia is aimed at getting the Kingdom's traditional partners to react in order to unblock the obstacles currently preventing the acquisition of Typhoons, and perhaps F-35s, for the Saudi Air Force.
So it is certainly far too early to break out the champagne. In fact, no one is doing so.
On the other hand, it is also undeniable that this official Saudi request is enabling Dassault Aviation not only to build an effective offer that will obviously challenge the British Typhoon, but above all to deploy arguments that the European fighter, but also the American fighters that can potentially be exported to Riyadh, such as the F-15EX, cannot match.
In fact, the Saudi door is now slightly ajar to let the Rafale into the country. But with the right arguments, the necessary determination, and a bit of luck, a crack in the door is sometimes enough to move the lines. That's all we can wish for the Rafale sales team, who will certainly be getting little sleep over the coming days.
