Bangladesh on edge: Massive protests erupt after Sharif Osman Hadi's death

. India needs to do the needful - likes of 1971 and establish total and absolute dominance in the region.
Thats exactly what they want. Then it will reinforce the anti-India sentiment and will attract more idiots. Probably myanmar or some chakma insurgency makes sense but not direct intervention.
Not everything needs to be a conspiracy led by the US! And we're too busy blockading Venezuela right now -- that thicc crude is ours! It's back to the Monroe doctrine baby!
US is deeply involved, why would it tweet condolences for an absolute unknown moron getting killed ?
 
Not everything needs to be a conspiracy led by the US! And we're too busy blockading Venezuela right now -- that thicc crude is ours! It's back to the Monroe doctrine baby!

US while busy in Venezuela, bombed syria just yesterday. Its intelligence operatives still operate internationally.

Venezuela blockade is a what? Few destroyers? One AC if push comes to shove. That's a Tuesday for the hegemon.
As if it will let south Asia be at peace and give way into SCS, IOR, just for Venezuela. Untill and unless chinese do a cuba.. Venezuela is big in politics, not geopolitics.
 
A video from Gen PR Shankar on how to handle Bangladesh where he outlines a plan:

1. Asserting India's Position and Derecognition:
  • Declare a Monroe Doctrine: India should clearly state that its neighborhood, especially Bangladesh, is its sphere of influence, and external powers should not interfere.
  • Derecognize the current Bangladeshi government: India should consider not dealing with the interim and "illegal" government in Bangladesh, stating it will only engage with a properly elected government.
  • Global Announcement: Announce to the world that the situation in Bangladesh is worsening, that it affects India's national interest, and that India will act as needed, asking for cooperation and warning against interference.
2. Economic Leverage:
  • Water Treaty Renegotiation: Use the upcoming renewal of the India-Bangladesh water treaty (Ganga, Brahmaputra, Teesta rivers) as leverage, potentially reducing water supply if Bangladesh doesn't cooperate.
  • Control Over Trade and Resources: Use India's upstream control over Bangladesh's economy (garments, cotton, rice, electricity, oil, water) to demand upfront payments and hike rates, stopping credit lines.
3. Strategic Communications and Information Warfare:
  • Launch Strategic Communications: India should start a full line of strategic communications, an information campaign, or propaganda to clearly convey its ideas to Bangladesh, Pakistan, China, and the world.
  • Highlight Human Rights Violations: Apprise UN and human rights agencies about human rights violations occurring within Bangladesh.
4. Border Management and Internal Security:
  • Reinforce Military Posture: Strengthen military presence around Bangladesh.
  • Border Population Control: Implement strict border population control on the Indian side.
  • Punitive Measures for Sheltering Migrants: Make it very punitive for anyone caught sheltering Bangladeshi illegal migrants, deporting both the migrant and the shelterer.
  • Anti-Illegal Migrant Drive: Have a clear, non-political, anti-illegal migrant drive.
  • Unified Commands: Establish or revive unified commands in border states like Bengal and Meghalaya to manage border security and illegal migration.
5. Military Posture and Geopolitical Maneuvers:
  • Avoid Major Military Intervention: Do not get involved in a major military conflict with Bangladesh as it would play into the hands of Pakistan and China.
  • Surgical Operations: Conduct surgical operations if necessary, for example, to extract diplomats or staff, with the expectation of cooperation from the Bangladeshi army.
  • Expand Siliguri Corridor: Put forth a plan to expand the Siliguri Corridor, specifically demanding the Tetulia corridor, with compensation or by force if refused.
  • Declare a "Safety Corridor": Declare a 100-kilometer "safety corridor" within Bangladesh along the border, asserting the right to militarily interfere if any "inimical activity" occurs within this zone.
  • Sanction Chinese Companies: Sanction Chinese companies operating or planning to operate in Bangladesh to signal displeasure to China.
  • Naval Blockade: Put a loose cordon in the Bay of Bengal and stop any illegal activity detrimental to India.
  • Retaliation for Hindu Persecution: Inform Bangladesh that any further persecution of Hindus will lead to Indian action.


 
Economic Leverage:
  • Water Treaty Renegotiation: Use the upcoming renewal of the India-Bangladesh water treaty (Ganga, Brahmaputra, Teesta rivers) as leverage, potentially reducing water supply if Bangladesh doesn't cooperate.
  • Control Over Trade and Resources: Use India's upstream control over Bangladesh's economy (garments, cotton, rice, electricity, oil, water) to demand upfront payments and hike rates, stopping credit lines.


Most of the points are really good. But Government need to have guts to implement it. At maximum the government may start with these two.
 
Most of the points are really good. But Government need to have guts to implement it. At maximum the government may start with these two.
I also agree with most of these points but I've my suggestions in addition to these. Firstly, we need a high speed railway connection from Bihar , West Bengal through Siliguri Corridor to Assam nd Meghalaya. Most of this connection should be underground and elevated at some points. I'm considering both the very difficult terrain in the region and the high cost to implement. Secondly, India needs to agree and sign Nepal and Bhutan into this high speed rail network too. Thirdly, The Arakan Army should be given full support and the Kaladan Rail link project must be prioritised to get alternate access to sea .

Bangladesh is highly dependent on Pakistan and China to counter India . If you carefully observe their strategic talk shows and discussions they always say that IF INDIA NEEDS TO ATTACK BANGLADESH AND CAPTURE SUCCESSFULLY ON GROUND THEN INDIA NEEDS ATLEAST 3 TIMES THE MAN POWER/FORCE OF WHAT BANGLADESH IS HAVING. And they have calculated that it is not possible to bring such number by India against Bangladesh in case of any conflict BECAUSE OF PAKISTAN AND CHINA. Basically these Jihadi morons consider the conflict as a fully foot on ground intervention.

BANGLADESH is like A BODY WITHOUT LIFE. Fighting such a Zombie will not help India strategically. BANGLADESH'S LIFE ( THE SOURCE OF ITS POWER ) IS OUTSIDE ITS LAND. SO, INDIA must concentrate to THAT SOURCE . When that SOURCE will be neutralized, this ZOMBIE BODY will automatically DIE. INDIA must focus on NATIONAL INTEGRITY, CONNECTION (HIGH SPEED) & REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY WITH NEPAL, BHUTAN, ARAKAN & MYANMAR.
 
Thats exactly what they want. Then it will reinforce the anti-India sentiment and will attract more idiots. Probably myanmar or some chakma insurgency makes sense but not direct intervention.

We need to start thinking about our security posture - think of what US/Russia/China would do to such a provocation next to their border.

We don’t have the scale and reach of those countries (agreed) but we don’t need it as well. It’s happening right next to us and we need to put a foot down and dominate this area.

See this —

This is the plan, always was and always will be. It’s on us to act and show Pak think tank what the costs of this kind of an attempt are!

This is “Next time we will start from the east” playing out before our eyes!
 
That's what has been done so far. I do not think that we will see kinetic action(s) w/o an incident here - been the policy for the last two-three decades. Saddening state of affairs.

If we cannot stand with the hindu community of BD at this time where it is evident that BD radicals are being weaponised against India and BD is being ethnically cleansed in parallel, we might as well stop our loud rhetorics. BD’s current situation will have dire consequences for us in the long run if this is allowed to continue — babus need to wake up and smell the coffee! Also, for all our blusters, look at what they are doing to the Hindus in BD — it’s bloody sickening! BD is our backyard, if we keep mum now, this will be remembered as the 26/11 inaction equivalent for this government.
 
I am perplexed why haven't people called for kinetic action against yunus in this forum.
Since, people wanted munir to be targeted personally. Yunus and his corterie is easier. But the deterrent can work. These guys won't care without personal ramifications for them. Typical Islamist/Communist/dynastic state tendency. Unlike usual democracies. So, haidi was no one. He was a pawn and probably killed by his own side to use his death as instigator.
But yunus.. his advisors.. top leaders of jamat.. If they are enabling ISIS and the likes.. make it personally costly for anyone at that position.

Why not declare these radical political front as terror orgs? Diplomacy goes only till Uncle Sam / China is the one actively managing these yunuses.. after that it's just as western border where one on one diplomacy won't work
 
I am perplexed why haven't people called for kinetic action against yunus in this forum.
Since, people wanted munir to be targeted personally. Yunus and his corterie is easier. But the deterrent can work. These guys won't care without personal ramifications for them. Typical Islamist/Communist/dynastic state tendency. Unlike usual democracies. So, haidi was no one. He was a pawn and probably killed by his own side to use his death as instigator.
But yunus.. his advisors.. top leaders of jamat.. If they are enabling ISIS and the likes.. make it personally costly for anyone at that position.

Why not declare these radical political front as terror orgs? Diplomacy goes only till Uncle Sam / China is the one actively managing these yunuses.. after that it's just as western border where one on one diplomacy won't work

There are two things at play here —

1. US and Pak nexus wants to use BD as Pak base (talks of an effin’ nuclear deal between Pak and BD are underway) with the aim of keeping India under pressure. So effectively we need to worry about BD border as much as our other borders.

2. Yunus has the blessing of China and wants to further his own agenda. The NE (7 sisters reference) is 100% a Chinese provocation via BD.

Forget targeting Yunus - we need kinetic action in BD as a trash cleaning measure. Any force that doesn’t work in Indian interest and are radicalised should be exterminated immediately. This will invariably mean a conflict with Pak as any overt operation will give Pak the chance to start hostilities as well.

However, if we allow this to happen. BD will go back to being East Pakistan and Pak will have its forces stationed there. They will probably also allow, US/Chinese forces there depending on who wins that tussle. It will be a major headache for us in the long run.

It’s time for Modi to do what Indira Gandhi did — and not repeat the mistakes that followed. All those who are claiming that India is playing is 5D chess will “find out” in about 3 - 4 years if India doesn’t act. It (Inaction here) will be one of the historic blunders of Indian machinery in recent times.
 
If we cannot stand with the hindu community of BD at this time where it is evident that BD radicals are being weaponised against India and BD is being ethnically cleansed in parallel, we might as well stop our loud rhetorics. BD’s current situation will have dire consequences for us in the long run if this is allowed to continue — babus need to wake up and smell the coffee! Also, for all our blusters, look at what they are doing to the Hindus in BD — it’s bloody sickening! BD is our backyard, if we keep mum now, this will be remembered as the 26/11 inaction equivalent for this government.
You're overestimating the babus once again. Look at the performance when it comes to both NP and BD. MEA profiles are pretty much just 'regular' jobs where you get paid to work like a normal paper pusher. Look at the fact check pipeline and the counter disinformation campaign that has been mounted to call out incidents in BD. They cannot even run things smoothly online. Then you need to have a look at the statements that have come out of the GoI. MEA is pretty much getting blindsided these days. The UNSC still exists and we'll have to go through them if we ever decide to send troops into BD. I do not see that happening. The current climate is very difficult for one sided kinetic actions. Look at the cards that you hold right now and let me know how we should go about this issue.

We've not been playing the game well. I will leave it at that. I do understand your sentiments and feel quite helpless myself. Let's leave it at that.
 
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You're overestimating the babus once again. Look at the performance when it comes to both NP and BD. MEA profiles are pretty much just 'regular' jobs where you get paid to work like a normal paper pusher. Look at the fact check pipeline and the counter disinformation campaign that has been mounted to call out incidents in BD. They cannot even run things smoothly online. Then you need to have a look at the statements that have come out of the GoI. MEA is pretty much getting blindsided these days. The UNSC still exists and we'll have to go through them if we ever decide to send troops into BD. I do not see that happening. The current climate is very difficult for one sided kinetic actions. Look at the cards that you hold right now and let me know how we should go about this issue.

We've not been playing the game well. I will leave it at that. I do understand your sentiments and feel quite helpless myself. Let's leave it at that.

1. You're having expectations from wrong ministry. Its the job of Information and Broadcasting ministry and Ministry of Home Affairs to handle Information warfare. While MHA can set the priority, it becomes I&B's responsibility to have robust pipeline for disseminating information. This includes SM too.

The problem here is at the least two fold:
A) Fragmentation of roles and responsibilities. While regulating I&B covers flow of info, the IW should be under National security and public order, which is purview of MHA. With use of bots, targeted campaigns.. this overlaps with cyber domain and the technical aspects will need Meity's involvement. The problem is even inside MHA, I&B etc.. these are fragmented desks.

IW has become enough of a threat to deserve its own dedicated task force , with its own recruitment pipeline and SOP. But what we have is SSC recruited babus. Its wrong to expect babus to be savvy enough to handle this. When same babu have to push files for their regular post too. In the name of fact checking, they probably have a 40-50 year old overseeing the desk/unit with a few couple of Grade-B and C employee deputed there. With the nature of work ( no SOP/established KPIs to quantify the amount of work done), they probably get taken as a time pass job with making them work for other stuff. Include the understaffing of ministries due to SSC fiasco, it piles up.

B) Indian Beauracracy doesn't just stifle India's growth momentum. It stifles itself. Red Tapism hampers proper staffing, training, flexibility needed to counter the evolving nature of threats.

What we need is a dedicated task force, with 100-150 employees encompassing.. SM savvy people to monitor #, viral videos, track the usual suspects on SM. Cyber experts to decode the network deployed for the campaigns, weed out bots, deploy bots to counter IW etc. Marketing peeps to decide how to disseminate information and communicating with public. And most importantly, the backbone, we need research oriented people who can dig deep into an issue, find the subtle manipulation for narrative and debunk it.

Honestly, citizens are doing better job without getting paid, to counter IW than the ministries. If they could just recruit these people... They won't have a problem. I see wonderful people going as far as reading history, documented judgements, incidents, policies to give proper details. Not IT cell type reel narrative. If they can get access to state resources/info access.. its like giving wings to them. Don't even need to hold recruitment exams 🤷.

MEA is doing its job fine. Its team maintain info channel to tackle its role and responsibilities. Its I&B and MHA that's *censored*ing up big time. Especially I&B with its third grade PIB fact check desk. They are handling 21st century threats with 20th century procedures and mindset.


2. Coming to what actions can be taken against BD:
Kinetic actions, as I said in earlier post.. if it involves military.. you need a campaign which dwarfs gaza, otherwise you will have 100's of gaza inside bangladesh. You need a state capable to absorb the international ramifications from the optics, human rights , diplomacy which will arise out of the sheer public destruction. BD doesn't have the depth to absorb even artillery fire without significant deaths. Unlike indo-pak border. So, the casualties.. India won't go for it. Ever. Unless it finds itself cornered on all sides.

So, that leaves targeted operations.. operations with involvement of Surgical strike units for quick in and out. Target people, buildings. Not region. which will mean taking out the nodes. For that, you first need near impenetrable border infra against migrants. Not military. That means fencing, integrated grids. Not artillery posts. Since, let's say, an israel like bombing of Hamas in Qatar, but targeting jamat, ISI HQ in BD will make people migrate out of fear, given the nature of terrain and history.

Unknown gunmen is not optimum for BD, as we need to assert and send dominant messaging to deter forces operating inside BD. Meaning Indian state have to own it. That should be focused and public pressure be directed at. Surgical operations.

And let's not forget, uncle Sam has interest in BD for its own reason. So, need a leverage or a bait for them. This is what I personally haven't been able to think of. The leverage or bait. Since, I don't know the extent and nature of Sam's interest in BD. Under whose patronage, yunus and ISI find themselves in since 2024. I won't consider China here, since they are active adversary and military on northern frontier is the solution and deterrence there.
 
US and Pak nexus wants to use BD as Pak base (talks of an effin’ nuclear deal between Pak and BD are underway) with the aim of keeping India under pressure. So effectively we need to worry about BD border as much as our other borders.

Doesnt make sense. Even for US. That's should be noted as red line and enough to premept BD with hiroshima and Nagasaki being precedent.

And seriously, BD won't add anything of a pressure on long term which will have significant increase in threat perception, given the 2.5 front we already have to deal with.

Making BD, a base of pak(covert) , against India ,will instead work as counter productive for both US & China. Yes it will be a nuisance, irritant in short term. But it's not 10+4+2 . Its 10+4+0.2.. A 0.2 for which, US & China will only help India. I say this because Indian state is historically reactionary.
For a 0.2 you're giving external stimulus to create mechanisms which will strengthen and work as force multiplier in long term. Both in capacity and capability of India. Infact, this even gives state enough push to intensify the weakening of 0.5 front. Like foreign funding to NGO's. MMC tag given to Congress to tackle the issue openly. ( Muslim leagueii, Maowadi= Seperatist. ) Not a term like anti-national which is more emotionally charged and mostly undefined.

This is what I believe when I look at it as statecraft issue, remove emotions.

So, there's definitely other things.
 
1. You're having expectations from wrong ministry. Its the job of Information and Broadcasting ministry and Ministry of Home Affairs to handle Information warfare. While MHA can set the priority, it becomes I&B's responsibility to have robust pipeline for disseminating information. This includes SM too.

The problem here is at the least two fold:
A) Fragmentation of roles and responsibilities. While regulating I&B covers flow of info, the IW should be under National security and public order, which is purview of MHA. With use of bots, targeted campaigns.. this overlaps with cyber domain and the technical aspects will need Meity's involvement. The problem is even inside MHA, I&B etc.. these are fragmented desks.

IW has become enough of a threat to deserve its own dedicated task force , with its own recruitment pipeline and SOP. But what we have is SSC recruited babus. Its wrong to expect babus to be savvy enough to handle this. When same babu have to push files for their regular post too. In the name of fact checking, they probably have a 40-50 year old overseeing the desk/unit with a few couple of Grade-B and C employee deputed there. With the nature of work ( no SOP/established KPIs to quantify the amount of work done), they probably get taken as a time pass job with making them work for other stuff. Include the understaffing of ministries due to SSC fiasco, it piles up.

B) Indian Beauracracy doesn't just stifle India's growth momentum. It stifles itself. Red Tapism hampers proper staffing, training, flexibility needed to counter the evolving nature of threats.

What we need is a dedicated task force, with 100-150 employees encompassing.. SM savvy people to monitor #, viral videos, track the usual suspects on SM. Cyber experts to decode the network deployed for the campaigns, weed out bots, deploy bots to counter IW etc. Marketing peeps to decide how to disseminate information and communicating with public. And most importantly, the backbone, we need research oriented people who can dig deep into an issue, find the subtle manipulation for narrative and debunk it.

Honestly, citizens are doing better job without getting paid, to counter IW than the ministries. If they could just recruit these people... They won't have a problem. I see wonderful people going as far as reading history, documented judgements, incidents, policies to give proper details. Not IT cell type reel narrative. If they can get access to state resources/info access.. its like giving wings to them. Don't even need to hold recruitment exams 🤷.

MEA is doing its job fine. Its team maintain info channel to tackle its role and responsibilities. Its I&B and MHA that's *censored*ing up big time. Especially I&B with its third grade PIB fact check desk. They are handling 21st century threats with 20th century procedures and mindset.


2. Coming to what actions can be taken against BD:
Kinetic actions, as I said in earlier post.. if it involves military.. you need a campaign which dwarfs gaza, otherwise you will have 100's of gaza inside bangladesh. You need a state capable to absorb the international ramifications from the optics, human rights , diplomacy which will arise out of the sheer public destruction. BD doesn't have the depth to absorb even artillery fire without significant deaths. Unlike indo-pak border. So, the casualties.. India won't go for it. Ever. Unless it finds itself cornered on all sides.

So, that leaves targeted operations.. operations with involvement of Surgical strike units for quick in and out. Target people, buildings. Not region. which will mean taking out the nodes. For that, you first need near impenetrable border infra against migrants. Not military. That means fencing, integrated grids. Not artillery posts. Since, let's say, an israel like bombing of Hamas in Qatar, but targeting jamat, ISI HQ in BD will make people migrate out of fear, given the nature of terrain and history.

Unknown gunmen is not optimum for BD, as we need to assert and send dominant messaging to deter forces operating inside BD. Meaning Indian state have to own it. That should be focused and public pressure be directed at. Surgical operations.

And let's not forget, uncle Sam has interest in BD for its own reason. So, need a leverage or a bait for them. This is what I personally haven't been able to think of. The leverage or bait. Since, I don't know the extent and nature of Sam's interest in BD. Under whose patronage, yunus and ISI find themselves in since 2024. I won't consider China here, since they are active adversary and military on northern frontier is the solution and deterrence there.
Right, I&B are the ones responsible for that 'glacial' fact check account. The MEA are slightly better and you need only look at how things have turned out so far. I do not see anything apart from mediocre performance when it comes to handling diplomacy in SA and SEA. We have not been able to contain chaos in the neighborhood. Of course, they alone are not responsible and I am sure there are plenty of other organisations or departments that have failed the GoI.

I have no comments regarding kinetic actions. I have low expectations when it comes any strikes that could be initiated by us w/o any incidents happening in India. Let's see what happens.
 
There are two things at play here —

1. US and Pak nexus wants to use BD as Pak base (talks of an effin’ nuclear deal between Pak and BD are underway) with the aim of keeping India under pressure. So effectively we need to worry about BD border as much as our other borders.

2. Yunus has the blessing of China and wants to further his own agenda. The NE (7 sisters reference) is 100% a Chinese provocation via BD.

Forget targeting Yunus - we need kinetic action in BD as a trash cleaning measure. Any force that doesn’t work in Indian interest and are radicalised should be exterminated immediately. This will invariably mean a conflict with Pak as any overt operation will give Pak the chance to start hostilities as well.

However, if we allow this to happen. BD will go back to being East Pakistan and Pak will have its forces stationed there. They will probably also allow, US/Chinese forces there depending on who wins that tussle. It will be a major headache for us in the long run.

It’s time for Modi to do what Indira Gandhi did — and not repeat the mistakes that followed. All those who are claiming that India is playing is 5D chess will “find out” in about 3 - 4 years if India doesn’t act. It (Inaction here) will be one of the historic blunders of Indian machinery in recent times.
No offence but many of the things you state sound more like plots for action movies than anything remotely possible in the real world.
 
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Adding to the post that I had made above. The JeI is sure to capitalise on these attacks on student leaders. The MEA has not been able to convince the stakeholders in BD to allow AL remnants or AL affiliated groups to contest the election. The biggest concern so far has been this:



JeI should not have been allowed to return to the mainstream politics. However, it seems
they are all set to contest elections from a decent no. of areas. I do not know if the lobbying effort failed or the other side outsmarted the babus.

The JeI is consists of certain characters who are sure cause distress to any analyst dealing with Indian national interests.
 
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No offence but many of the things you state sound more like plots for action movies than anything remotely possible in the real world.

Let’s revisit this conversation after 3-4 years down the line. Foreign policy reflects the resolve of a country. If Munir survives for a long enough period, India’s inaction in BD will come back to bite us big time.

Mind you, there was a reason India intervened the way we did in 1971 — US was a lot more hostile than it is today. We did it nonetheless. BD is on course to become a hot bed of Pakistan army with Pak posting weapons there. Again, why were Russian missiles in Cuba a huge cause of concern for US? Why was US missiles in Ukraine (if it materialised) a huge cause of concern for Russia?

Why is Pak missiles/military presence in BD not a cause of worry for India?
 
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