Air Engagement of Operation Sindoor : Analysis

We don't hide our crashes until it's under wartime emergency. IAF won't remain so silent if Rafale simply crashed because of an accident until it was shot down by enemy fire. That's what has happened here. BS001 is gone, IMO.

PS: There were also reports of multiple Rafales being attacked by Pakistanis, though all of them survived the barrage and returned to base except BS001.

We hide all losses during an ongoing operation. I mean, why give away clues?

The Rafales acted as missile magnets using their towed decoys to protect the rest of the fighter fleet. The PAF "downed" decoys mimicking the Rafales and thought they had hit Rafales. What it means is the Rafales themselves were not visible to the missiles' seekers.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Aniruddha
The crashsite debris was too small to be a fighter, even if it was broken up. Another crashsite was that of a Heron.

View attachment 50308

Another one.

Aircraft crash during 'Operation Sindoor' in Punjab's Bathinda: 1 man from Haryana dead, 9 injured; police seal area, media restricted from site Aircraft crashes during 'Operation Sindoor' in Punjab's Bathinda: 1 man from Haryana dead, 9 injured; police seal 2-km-area , media restricted from site - Punjab News


bathinda-air-force-base.jpeg




 

Attachments

  • Like
Reactions: Rajput Lion
Aircraft crash during 'Operation Sindoor' in Punjab's Bathinda: 1 man from Haryana dead, 9 injured; police seal area, media restricted from site Aircraft crashes during 'Operation Sindoor' in Punjab's Bathinda: 1 man from Haryana dead, 9 injured; police seal 2-km-area , media restricted from site - Punjab News


View attachment 50309





Deep fake. They forgot to add damage to the ground. No crater, no burnmarks, no skidmarks, no debris. That's at least 400+ kg falling forward at mach 0.7+. The surrounding area is a bit too pristine. Even the hay underneath the engine survived the crash.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Asmodeus and Lolwa
That one whose debris were found near airforce base Bhatinda?
Yes. Unfortunately. We also found that J-10CE + PL-15 is a deadly combo. J-35AE with internally mounted PL-15 is going to be even much lethal for all our air assets. Rumour mill also says that PAF has asked the Chinese to integrate their 500kms VLRAAM PL-17 with both J-10CE & future J-35AE(externally mounted). Our Phalcons and Netra(s) would be in deep trouble once PAF acquires this missile.
 
Deep fake. They forgot to add damage to the ground. No crater, no burnmarks, no skidmarks, no debris. That's at least 400+ kg falling forward at mach 0.7+. The surrounding area is a bit too pristine. Even the hay underneath the engine survived the crash.
Nothing suggest the rear part/afterburner of the engine broke off when aircraft was going mach 0.7, afterburner's reported location is in the same village, so possible aircraft was limping/barely flying when it finally broke off at low altitude, shortly after plane crashed nearby.

While the specific weight of the M88's afterburner module is not publicly known , a reliable engineering assumption for a modern fighter engine in this class places the afterburner and its nozzle system at approximately 15% to 20% of the total engine weight.
Given the M88-2’s total dry weight of 897 kg (1,978 lb), can estimate the afterburner Weight Range: 130 kg to 200kg k

Possible assumption, 130-200kg falling off in relatively soft ground, at low altitude and slow speeds.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rajput Lion
  • Like
Reactions: Rajput Lion
Acc. To this poster, chances are it could have been hq9 that took down rafale

Post in thread 'Dassault Rafale --- TECHNICAL News Only !!!!!!!' Dassault Rafale --- TECHNICAL News Only !!!!!!!
Yes, some early report also suggested that all our attrition was due to HQ-9s. But by saying that we found J-10CE + PL-15 combo to be effective, I didn't mean that our Rafale was shot down by that. Maybe, it wasn't shot down, rather suffered some nasty accident during return mission. But just the fact that PAF was able to lob the missile from 200kms away completely changed the calculus of our air warfare, IMO.

J-35AE would change it further. IAF knows this, that's why Su-57M1 or M2(or both;)) are coming to deny PAF having this VLO advantage.
 
  • Like
Reactions: babablacksheep
We hide all losses during an ongoing operation. I mean, why give away clues?

The Rafales acted as missile magnets using their towed decoys to protect the rest of the fighter fleet. The PAF "downed" decoys mimicking the Rafales and thought they had hit Rafales. What it means is the Rafales themselves were not visible to the missiles' seekers.
One thing is certain, that we did lose one Rafale. I've been saying this since we all saw M-88 wreckage. Now the report which suggests that IAF is looking to upgrade 35 F3R-I Rafales to F4+ standard confirms that loss beyond any doubt.

Now how that Rafale was lost(PL-15 or HQ-9 or freak accident or blue on blue)? We just don't know and can ONLY speculate, IMO.
 
Now how that Rafale was lost(PL-15 or HQ-9 or freak accident or blue on blue)? We just don't know and can ONLY speculate, IMO.

War means losses

Since Pakistan suffered much more grievous losses of Assets on the Ground and in the Air
They took the INITIATIVE For the Ceasefire

That is how the Whole World looks at it

We had them on the MAT

We were bombing their bases and they were looking on in disbelief

Now what Lessons has IAF learnt and how they implement it ,.Will only be known in the next war
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rajput Lion
Not all were unexploded rounds. It is a new gen BVR that compares well with its Western counterparts in terms of specs. Atleast on paper.



Agree. The Pakee has a history of spinning legends out of yarn (MM Alam). However, Ereiye + Link 17 integration seems to be a plausible theory to my mind.

Why else would the PAF suddenly dump its Chini ZDK-03 awacs which was originally meant to support its Chinese fighters?
This PL-15 kill chain theory seems bullshit to me without considering how BVR missile kill range reduces in real combat scenerio full of EW.. let me add some of counter points -

PL-15 brochure range of 200 km is at high altitude against head on & non maneuvering targets . in case of receding Rafale this range goes down to 60-80 km , this 150km + tail chase kill shot is just unrealistic.

even if we consider that Erieye is integrated still it cant provide quality radar tracking up to 400 km to get a that kind of a shot its just a pakee fantasy kill chain nothing else.

According to this kill chain theory , Rafale was taking a nap in air , completely ignoring MAWS, spectra , flares etc ...all while sitting 150 km away like a sitting duck . very convincing"
 
This PL-15 kill chain theory seems bullshit to me without considering how BVR missile kill range reduces in real combat scenerio full of EW.. let me add some of counter points -

PL-15 brochure range of 200 km is at high altitude against head on & non maneuvering targets . in case of receding Rafale this range goes down to 60-80 km , this 150km + tail chase kill shot is just unrealistic.

even if we consider that Erieye is integrated still it cant provide quality radar tracking up to 400 km to get a that kind of a shot its just a pakee fantasy kill chain nothing else.

According to this kill chain theory , Rafale was taking a nap in air , completely ignoring MAWS, spectra , flares etc ...all while sitting 150 km away like a sitting duck . very convincing"
Yup,

Post in thread 'Dassault Rafale --- TECHNICAL News Only !!!!!!!' Dassault Rafale --- TECHNICAL News Only !!!!!!!

Post in thread 'Dassault Rafale --- TECHNICAL News Only !!!!!!!' Dassault Rafale --- TECHNICAL News Only !!!!!!!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Professor∆Baaz
This PL-15 kill chain theory seems bullshit to me without considering how BVR missile kill range reduces in real combat scenerio full of EW.. let me add some of counter points -

PL-15 brochure range of 200 km is at high altitude against head on & non maneuvering targets . in case of receding Rafale this range goes down to 60-80 km , this 150km + tail chase kill shot is just unrealistic.

even if we consider that Erieye is integrated still it cant provide quality radar tracking up to 400 km to get a that kind of a shot its just a pakee fantasy kill chain nothing else.

According to this kill chain theory , Rafale was taking a nap in air , completely ignoring MAWS, spectra , flares etc ...all while sitting 150 km away like a sitting duck . very convincing"

There are multiple theories doing the rounds. And none can piece together a complete picture of what actually might have transpired.

To my mind, an ARH missile (with HOJ capability similar to most modern BVRAAMs) would've had a better chance at bringing down a target via third-party updates than a SARH SAM of considerably less range.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Rajput Lion
There are multiple theories doing the rounds. And none can piece together a complete picture of what actually might have transpired.

To my mind, an ARH missile (with HOJ capability similar to most modern BVRAAMs) would've had a better chance at bringing down a target via third-party updates than a SARH SAM of considerably less range.
You are right on that ARH BVRAAMs outclass SARH SAM ...but that's irrelevant to the 150km + tail chase rafale kill theory.

ARH with hoj capability of pl-15 doesn't assure of kill at that distance. It's very unrealistic.

Pl-15 kinetic energy dies after 100 km to hit a fighter jet like target & zero maneuverability left for intercept.

PL-15, 200 km range gives us largely 40-60km NEZ against receding non-maneuvering Targets...that's the catch of kill probability.

Most important I'm not even considering Rafale self protection suite & jamming capability. 🤷‍♂️


So the real question remains: Did Rafale actually get shot down or not? If yes, what led to it—PL-15 theory is total bullshit as we've proven... so what else could it be ?? ( And you said there were no HQ-9 debris. )

Hellfire and VSTOL jockey have been saying from the start that we didn't lose any Rafale. So it looks like they are right.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: Kiduva21
You are right on that ARH BVRAAMs outclass SARH SAM ...but that's irrelevant to the 150km + tail chase rafale kill theory.

ARH with hoj capability of pl-15 doesn't assure of kill at that distance. It's very unrealistic.

As I said, there are no clear answers atm. Depending on the altitude, the PL-15 could've been launched in a lofted trajectory, swooping down from above on an unsuspecting target.

This is reportedly the same tactic IAF S-400 units used to shoot the Pakistani HVA which came down in the Dinga area.

I'm not completely discounting the SAM theory either because there are conflicting reports that the Pakistani HQ-9BE is a longer range version with ARH interceptors. Could be just psyops, who knows?

Considering that the PL-15 spurred the USAF into launching the AIM-260 program though, its performance envelope could be far higher than we think.

With some luck, the IAF should be able to glean enough data from the crashed PL-15s to update its threat libraries and devise better eccm techniques/waveforms to deal with them effectively.
 
A rafale went down period with meteor. There are enough videos of it period. One Mig 29 & mirage 2000 also went down that's all. Rest are all porkiye BS claims.
People in this forum are weird. They like to beleive things never happened are reality.
First, it was in 2019. The downing of F16 by mig21. Now Rafale story. Both incidents were denied by respective airforces and both lacks evidences.

Asper me, both never happened.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: Shaktimaan
People in this forum are weird. They like to beleive things never happened are reality.
First, it was in 2019. The downing of F16 by mig21. Now Rafale story. Both incidents were denied by respective airforces and both lacks evidences.

Asper me, both never happened.
One Rafale was lost along with one Mirage 2000 and one Mikoyan MiG-29...... earlier one MiG-21 had gone down in 2019 & for all these jets there is visual confirmation. In contrast, there is no solid proof of any Pakistani aircraft being shot down beyond Indian claims based on radar data & possible intelligence inputs from within Pakistan, which may or may not be accurate. The IAF’s gamble on May 7 came at a cost in the air even as it struck terror facilities on the ground..... . Rest three days it was all IAF show with PAF nowhere to be seen thanks to IAF launching standoff weapons from safer distances rectifying earlier mistakes. They failed to achieved air superiority but had the momentum to which they & rest of the military & political brass squandered away like they always had in the past.