So civil war in pak, high chance that they will do sime nonsense on us to divert attention
Afganistan - Pakistan Conflict
- Thread starter Defc0n
- Start date
Read somewhere that this is a training video......
Ngl Islamic states are good at one thing Photoshop propaganda. Can't even take a war between them seriously because of the amount of bs they peddle about each other.
There is no war. This is a parking dispute escalating into a fist fight. The rough working class uncle landed a few blows on the office goer who thought he was tough so his family is hurling projectiles into the working class uncle's compound from their triple story house.
Both will curse abuse each other and dust will settle.
Taliban has no capacity to make a meaningful invasion, Pakistan well less said the better. Their whole defense plan right now is the enforce deterrence model.
Swift Retort against India
Air Strikes on Iran
Air Strikes on Afghanistan.
Its short calculated moves to dare the other side - stop or else. Sadly the or else cupboard is bare, dusty and increasingly full of cobwebs.
Fighting against the TTP or even the Taliban is the last resort of Fauji Foundation. Realistically speaking they've no qualms about taking on the Baloch anytime of the year.
The Pashtuns are a different kettle of fish. For one a significant section of them are part of the state & are well integrated. Equally a significant section of them are alienated.
Not all those who're alienated are part of the TTP. A significant section of them are also part of the PTM apart from the PTI.
Ideally if Fauji Foundation is smart they'd try to pitch one group against the other since the goals of the PTM which is a progressive movement taking after the Khudai Khidmatgar & their successor party the Awami National Party ( ANP) directly contradicts with the aims of the TTP who want to establish an Emirate based on Shari'ah law there much like the Taliban in Afghanistan.
However this is where generations of in breeding take over rational thinking & logic of the Fauji Foundation . They see the Pashtuns as a monolith & a collective threat to the unity of Paxtan. Hence Islamism was deployed to destabilize the Pashtun belt on both sides of the Durand Line.
The way I see it is they will try to get an organisation with an even more extreme take on Islam to take on the Taliban in Afghanistan & Paxtan. Whether that organisation is the ISKP or some other similar set up , time will tell.
But traditionally this is how Fauji Foundation has always operated. The Sipah e Sahana movement is a good example of how Sunni death squads were set up to take on Iranian sponsored Shi'a death squads in the 1980s & 90s & once it served its purpose , factionalism was encouraged till these factions wiped each other out . The remaining were mopped up by Fauji Foundation.
I suspect they've bitten off more than they can chew this time . I don't think the old formula of one size fits all works here. It's outlived its utility. But who's going to tell Fauji Foundation that.
I suspect the more worse the internal & external situation vis a vis Afghanistan gets for Fauji Foundation especially Field Marshal Asim Manure he'd be tempted to itch the scratch called India.I also suspect that's the reason Operation Sindoor hasn't ended.
As far as Fauji Foundation goes , like you pointed out Noora Kushti is the name of the game . Everytime the situation gets hot , launch a few air strikes on Afghanistan , have gunfights across the Durand Line , suffer few casualties , have a CF ( preferably brokered by Dolund bolstering his chances of a Nobel ) , kiss & make up till the next time. Then rinse & repeat.
Of course while all this is going on the economy & internal security of Paxtan further descends into chaos & anarchy.
How long will this continue ?! Till the end of this decade ? Maybe . Maybe not.
You mean TTP or TLP? Both are different and will change the whole dynamic of your recommendation and analysis
They don't care as long as their masters keep them afloat with unlimited debt they are happy with it. Munira and likes can always scam money out of it and run away to UK. Though, even that has a limit, eventually Pakistan will collapse because they can't keep running their economy with Lun and expect Win.
We don't know the full extent of their internal issues yet. Nor have enough time passed for effects of IWT abeyance to settle in, nor the escalation ladder set by op sindoor 1.0
TTP . TLP is a rag tag group as of now. They have street power not the muscle power of Deobandi / Wahabbi / Ahl e Hadees groups like the TTP or JeM or LeT .
That can come about only with state patronage , read Fauji Foundation patronage. And the latter won't ever patronize a Barelvi group to that extent as the majority of Paxtanis follow the Barelvi school of Islamic religious practice.
Support to them would be tantamount to setting up a group which has the possibility to rival Fauji Foundation itself.
These aren't Paxtanis. How do we know ? For Paxtanis are tall fair blue eyed with almost blonde hair . These are most likely Gangus. Tell them will you maamu ? @safriz
It seems the extent of skirmishes along the border were under reported. It is a conflict as it stands today. There are multiple reports coming from OSINT channels (of various origins) that seem to indicate that the Taliban has put the PA under considerable strain.
Visual Advisory: a capture of a check post by the Afghan forces.
Visual Advisory: a capture of a check post by the Afghan forces.