Well yes, India does not need MIRV for Pakistan, but Pakistan sure needs MIRV for India due to the developments in Indian ABM capability and now offshore Ballistic missile observation and tracking capability with this ship.
At 500-600 kg a piece, Pakistani warheads are still a bit bulky FOR MIRV 3+ and Ababeel lifts just three warheads.
Cannot do anymore due to weight restrictions.
This warhead is the same as used on Shaheen-3 which was first revealed on Shaheen-1A test vehicle in 2012.
For at least the last six years Pakistan hasn't invested in reducing size and weight of strategic warheads, but this new development will prompt the need.
Pakistan has been and will continue to acquire increased offensive capabilities vis-a-vis India as and when you can find the money (and/or foreign assistance) for it. It is a myth that Pakistan will not seek to upset the balance unless India does something first - its just that it takes a lot more money (and political will) to take the first step: much easier for India as we have to address the Chinese threat.
And in doing so, Pakistan too would only pursue techs that you deem necessary - its not like "whatever India does, we will too". There's a reason why Pakistan never went beyond 3500km IRBMs even after India increased reach to strike ~5000km and above. Its because it is known that this LRBM (not
officially ICBM as its stated as below 5500km) capability of India is aimed at China, not Pakistan.
And in future when Pakistan is in a position to acquire SLBMs, they will be of the MRBM/IRBM type with limited MIRV. Not the 6500-8500km ICBM types with 3 to 3.5 ton payload capacities (sufficient for 6 or 10 MIRV) that India pursues, with China in mind.
India's developments to tackle Chinese threats will not prompt anything in Pakistan - as long as the capability in Pak is deemed sufficient (within prevailing strategic & economic realities).
The current MIRV warhead has a reentry speed of Mach 18 on lofted, but the size is still a bit large at 2 meter tall and 70cm at base hence the drag and deceleration.
An s-400 tracks incoming targets at Mach 15 and below, depending on on size, so the guess is that an incoming Pakistani warhead will decelerate to Mach 15 at around 40-50 km altitude.
S-400 Triumf is a system with multiple missiles and provision for incorporating future missiles being developed now meant for S-500 Prometey. These advanced ABM missiles (77N6 and 77N6N-1) is what India wants. The current rung of S-400's 'ABM' capability (40N6 and 48N6) is reliably sufficient only for SRBM/MRBM types or for intercepting lumbering high-flying aircraft like bombers, AEW planes & tankers. That's not what India wants from S-400; that is something we're doing with indigenous XRSAM project itself.
Without the 77N6 series, S-400 is not effective against IRBM/ICBM class threats. Neither are any versions of S-300/400, like the Chinese HQ-9 variants.
As of now it's not clear if India will go for S-400 or not. If the US manages to convince us otherwise (much will depend on upcoming 2+2 talks in September), and perhaps offer the THAAD system as an alternative for us not buying S-400. News about possible THAAD offer is already in the press.
With this new ship India will have the advantage of being able to track a Pakistani missile launch from beginning as the ship parked off karachi or Mumbai will track all stages in near real time.
We don't need a ship to track Pakistani missile launches. Why would we? You are right next door - not on other side of the planet.
Any Pakistani ballistic missile launch can be tracked straight from boost stage itself by early warning radars located on Indian mainland. This capability will be further increased in future with the addition of 12 new solid-state Active Phased Array HPRs bought by IAF.
And in addition, there will be space-based IR early warning systems in place. Like the US SBIRS system that can detect the launch plume of any rocket or ballistic missile.
The whole strategic nuclear balance will shift in Indian favor with this ship and if S-400 arrives then we will have to re-think our nuclear strategy.
Nope. The ship is not a 24x7 BMD asset. It's main purpose is to assist in proper testing of missile technologies.
But one thing this ship can do - is that it can accurately track the trajectory as well as impact points of all the multiple warheads in any Pakistani MIRV missile test where splashdown occurs in Indian Ocean (in cases where missile is tested to full range envelope). But Pakistan does not have the capability to perform these observations.
So in short, ships like this can allow India to obtain a better understanding of the real-world performance & impact accuracy of Pakistani MIRV missile, a better understanding than Pakistan itself is likely to have given your tracking limitations.
What will likely change nuclear balance though (albeit the OSS will have a hand in that) will be these:
- Indian MIRV buses with 4, 6 and 10-warhead packs per missile
- Next-Gen Ballistic Missile program (A6 and K6) which will make use of above mentioned MIRV buses
- Future class of SSBN with 12 or 16 launch tubes which will accommodate above mentioned missiles
- SSN project - will turn the submarine game in IOR on its head. Even if Pak acquires SSBs in future (diesel-electric ballistic missile subs), they will not be safe or survivable with these hunter-killers afoot in IOR. Nothing can match an SSN when it comes to undersea lethality.
- Full spectrum BMD cover for major Indian cities and strategic sites
All these projects being developed over decades, at the cost of tens of billions with the intent of acquiring a credible minimum deterrent against China.
