PAK-FA / Sukhoi Su-57 - Updates and Discussions

You guys are forgetting the basic point of combining diplomacy with weapons buying as far as India and Russia are concerned. So,any purchase will not just be on the merits of the plane. Plus, the basic point is, We are trying to be atmanirbhar in defence production. so even if the purchase of su-57 happens it will have a Indian component in one form or another.(HAL). So it will not be an outright purchase of 40 some SU-57 twin seater directly from Russia either. So,if it is ordered, it will be a number that makes sense of Indian production line in HAL.

AMCA and what AMCA doesn't have to offer, a twin seater equivalent will be what India will go for. Su-57 twin seater is yet to see the day but it will be here before AMCA. If India were prudent, the SoKo 5th generation was the best option.

Frankly, other than to appease Russia we are not going to buy the Su-57. In my opinion.
 
They need to sign the deal this year along with a pair of s500
Russia has offered 40-60 single-seat for around $7 billion. Then there is another proposal of local-manufacturing of 100 to 140 Su-57DI/Su-60MKI. Talks are in very advance stage. China fielding over 1000 J-20s and giving J-35AEs to Pakistan is a serious threat to us. My guess is that this deal would only be signed post 114 Rafale deal. Hopefully both deals should be signed by March 2027. Let's see.

PS: S-500 negotiations haven't even started yet. It's just a proposal which we are looking into. But yes, looks like last year's skirmish has really impressed IAF regarding Russian jets, ADS & Missiles. So, IAF is most definitely interested in S-500.
 
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Russia has offered 40-60 single-seat for around $7 billion. Then there is another proposal of local-manufacturing of 100 to 140 Su-57DI/Su-60MKI. Talks are in very advance stage. China fielding over 1000 J-20s and giving J-35AEs to Pakistan is a serious threat to us. My guess is that this deal would only be signed post 114 Rafale deal. Hopefully both deals should be signed by March 2027. Let's see.

PS: S-500 negotiations haven't even started yet. It's just a proposal which we are looking into. But yes, looks like last year's skirmish has really impressed IAF regarding Russian jets, ADS & Missiles. So, IAF is most definitely interested in S-500.
Chinese development has actually put us back to the same indo-pak hyphenation. If the rumoured j-35AE and HQ 19 deal follows through we will have to go for the su-57 and s-500. The only way we go beyond this is to massively out manufacture and maintain atleast a 1:1 unit with the PLA,PLAAF and PLAN. That means we will have to atleast match the PLA machine to machine. They are obviously ahead but we need the mass manufacture flankers and su-57. Tejas is a compromised aircraft due to American engines. We will have to re engine the Tejas with the rd-33mk( which we produce for the navy mig29k) and have a wet thrust more than the ge-404-in20.
 
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S-500 has no utility in the IAF when BMD Phase-1 exists and is fully deployed to protect key population centres.
AD-1 is not enough when Pakistanis start using their hatf series. Iran has basically removed the requirement and made ballistic missiles a conventional reliable war weapon. The Fatah are temporary machines and more for psychological show they will have to rely on their tactical ballistic missiles. AD-1 and AD-2 can't intercept those it's cost prohibitive and I doubt how many AD-1 systems we have prsently.
 
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Chinese development has actually put us back to the same indo-pak hyphenation. If the rumoured j-35AE and HQ 19 deal follows through we will have to go for the su-57 and s-500. The only way we go beyond this is to massively out manufacture and maintain atleast a 1:1 unit with the PLA,PLAAF and PLAN. That means we will have to atleast match the PLA machine to machine. They are obviously ahead but we need the mass manufacture flankers and su-57. Tejas is a compromised aircraft due to American engines. We will have to re engine the Tejas with the rd-33mk( which we produce for the navy mig29k) and have a wet thrust more than the ge-404-in20.
PLAAF is supposed to have 1000 strong J-20 fleet by the end of 2030. Add 200-400 J-35A jets and that's takes their 5th gen tally close to 1500 jets. How do we counter this? IAF doctrine prevents us from manufacturing any jet in massive numbers. Even 30-40 Su-57s would be a mis-match against PLAAF though good enough to nullify PAF's J-35AEs.
 
For India, the doors to acquiring F-35 slammed shut the moment we bought S-400. The Americans will make the IAF jump thru many hoops now to even sell a dumbed down F-35IN, if at all.

On the brighter side, Su-57 should be able to cue 40N6 (and possibly even AD-1 via IACCS) to give the IAF a capability similar to NIFC-A. If the new optical/EODAS on Felon are half as good as AN/AAQ-37, it will allow long range passive targeting of enemy BMs, CMs.
 
For India, the doors to acquiring F-35 slammed shut the moment we bought S-400. The Americans will make the IAF jump thru many hoops now to even sell a dumbed down F-35IN, if at all.

On the brighter side, Su-57 should be able to cue 40N6 (and possibly even AD-1 via IACCS) to give the IAF a capability similar to NIFC-A. If the new optical/EODAS on Felon are half as good as AN/AAQ-37, it will allow long range passive targeting of enemy BMs, CMs.
F-35 is too much of a risk and will take too much time. We have already seen how slow the Tejas programme is because of American engines. There's just no point wasting anytime on the f-35 anymore considering it doesn't have anything that can outdo a pl-17.
Su-57 is more than a logical choice for the IAF.
F-35 only makes sense if we want dedicated SEAD/DEAD squadrons but they will still require the complement of f-15's or Growlers to be effective.
 
F-35 is too much of a risk and will take too much time. We have already seen how slow the Tejas programme is because of American engines. There's just no point wasting anytime on the f-35 anymore considering it doesn't have anything that can outdo a pl-17.
Su-57 is more than a logical choice for the IAF.
F-35 only makes sense if we want dedicated SEAD/DEAD squadrons but they will still require the complement of f-15's or Growlers to be effective.

Agree. Although PL-17 reportedly is a large dia LRAAM meant to take down large lumbering targets like awacs, tankers. It is not as effective against agile combat jets.

Imo, F-35s situational awareness + EA capability would've helped the IAF manage its offensive and defensive ops much better (assuming proper networking with other IAF assets). That role would now have to be taken up by Su-57.
 
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For India, the doors to acquiring F-35 slammed shut the moment we bought S-400. The Americans will make the IAF jump thru many hoops now to even sell a dumbed down F-35IN, if at all.

Once again, no. Turkey is dealing with an Erdogan problem, not an S-400 problem. As a NATO state, plus Israel's open hostility for Erdogan, the Turks are not getting the F-35. IAF's S-400s have no impact here. The F-35 is available to us, we just don't want it.


India rejected the F-35.

On the brighter side, Su-57 should be able to cue 40N6 (and possibly even AD-1 via IACCS) to give the IAF a capability similar to NIFC-A.

Only if the radar remains Russian and networked via their comm systems.
 
Once again, no. Turkey is dealing with an Erdogan problem, not an S-400 problem. As a NATO state, plus Israel's open hostility for Erdogan, the Turks are not
getting the F-35. IAF's S-400s have no impact here. The F-35 is available to us,
we just don't want it.

Greece had no such problem, yet they ended up selling their S-300s just prior to placing an order for the F-35. That's no coincidence. The IAF deliberately chose S400 over the F-35. Not a bad decision in hindsight.

F-35 would've been a liability in Op Sindoor.
 
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Greece had no such problem, yet they ended up selling their S-300s just prior to placing an order for the F-35. That's no coincidence. The IAF deliberately chose S400 over the F-35. Not a bad decision in hindsight.

Greek S-300s will be 30 years old when they are transferred to Armenia. And they haven't yet made any decision to transfer it. Meaning, there's no pressure from the US to get rid of it.

They associated the problems with S-400. They think exposing the F-35 to S-400s will see the track data transferred to Russia. But that's nonsensical. It's just an excuse to not sell Turkey F-35s 'cause they themselves don't like Erdogan while the Israelis don't want Turkey to get stealth jets.

The Israelis have some kinda deal that prevents the US from selling stealth jets to their neighbors for 15 years.

F-35 would've been a liability in Op Sindoor.

The F-35 itself isn't a problem. Once ready (2033+), it will be more advanced than anything else we will have until AMCA Mk2, even Rafales.

Sindoor does not even come within the calculations, 2025 operation vs 2030+ operational capability.

The relative boost in capability is not worth the headache associated with dealing with the US 'cause we will get a superior system in the form of AMCA in just a few years after all. Practically parallel inductions at this point.

If the US offers the F-47, both the IAF and GoI will give it more thought because we won't have an equivalent or better system until the late 2050s. And because it won't come with ToT for local production, it's moot.

The Su-57 is in the same boat as the F-35. Even Su-60 MKIzation and FOC will take as much time as AMCA Mk2. F-35 will come in faster if it's directly imported, and the Su-60 can match the F-35's schedule if we decide to skip MKIzation, that's about it. Ironically, the F-47 will also take the same amount of time. So choose your poison.
 
Agree. Although PL-17 reportedly is a large dia LRAAM meant to take down large lumbering targets like awacs, tankers. It is not as effective against agile combat jets.

Imo, F-35s situational awareness + EA capability would've helped the IAF manage its offensive and defensive ops much better (assuming proper networking with other IAF assets). That role would now have to be taken up by Su-57.
Most of this is not real. The EA advantage doesn't exist. The only real parameter is who owns the longer sticks. Right now the longest stick is with the Chinese.
Su-57 is far easier. The rafale experience has shown that western tech just cannot be integrated to indian tech. Had the rafales had the rampages and Popeyes on day 1 we wouldn't have lost one due to use of short ranged hammer.
 
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Why 12? There's nothing we can do with 12.

AMCA is all well and good as long as it's ready by 2040 with the new engine. I think the French will deliver.
This bold part is the reason you need Su57. The 12 units will make sure that you get the time to produce AMCA while having stealth fighters inducted. There is no other option for GOI and IAF apart from going for Su57 and also working on AMCA without compromising on the budget. This is why I restricted the units to 12 only.

here two seat prototype for the IAF as members were more interested in this version


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they need 6th gen jets that have reach, altitude, and larger sensors.
And they have the avionics and working on the rest.


PLAAF cannot mass effectively against India. Their main bases are too far away and the ones they have are too few in number. They are way too focused on the Pacific front.
While they are also busy on the pacific front, this is a very good opportunity to flex muscles and sharpen the teeth, there is a reason why India has high hot capable Su30s there.

You need to buy the time, which is almost 15 years at least and this is why Su57 is important.

And Tibet acts as a wall. When they try to cross the wall, they get exposed to our air defenses. And stealth doesn't help at this point due to the short distance.

So, while they cannot mass against India, they also cannot fly close enough. All they can do is resort to standoff weapons, and our air defenses can act against such weapons quite easily.

We can mass against them using our fighters and use our rocket forces more effectively due to their shorter exposure time and PLAAF's potential lack of forward deployed fighter jets.
They are themselves well aware of load carrying capacity while taking off due to thin air from Lhasa and they are building up as well, with extender airstrips. They have 16 air bases along Indian border. And have increased the strength of stealth fighter deployed.

As India continues to open up trade and investment ties with China, the latter has quietly deployed at least 14 J-20 Mighty Dragon stealth fighters at an airbase in Tibet located less than 100 miles from India’s Sikkim border. Armed with PL-15 long-range missiles capable of crossing the Line of Actual Control, the deployment is the largest and most significant PLAAF buildup near Indian territory ever recorded, reported 19fortyfive.com Mar 19
 
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This bold part is the reason you need Su57. The 12 units will make sure that you get the time to produce AMCA while having stealth fighters inducted. There is no other option for GOI and IAF apart from going for Su57 and also working on AMCA without compromising on the budget. This is why I restricted the units to 12 only.

12 is pointless. You can't do anything with such a small number.

You need 12 just to train pilots and create tactics.

And they have the avionics and working on the rest.

It will take them 7-8 years after first flight to get to FOC, and then they need to concentrate on the Pacific front first before bringing numbers over to the Indian side. That's closer to 2040. By which time we will also have ordered SCAF/GCAP, not just AMCA.

While they are also busy on the pacific front, this is a very good opportunity to flex muscles and sharpen the teeth, there is a reason why India has high hot capable Su30s there.

You need to buy the time, which is almost 15 years at least and this is why Su57 is important.

So, 12 jets are not sufficient. If we are to buy more, it has to be the two-seat, plus MKIzed. Assuming the two-seat is ready in 2030, MKIzation alone will take 7 years before IOC. And then another 2-3 years before FOC. That takes us to 2040. That's why it's pointless.

Even if we choose single-seat, it will take until 2030 to mature and at least 2040 before it's FOC'd to IAF standards. Same timetable.

And we have to see if the two-seat comes with Izd 30 or still stuck with 177, which makes the jet extremely underpowered in Indian conditions.

By 2030 we will know the status of AMCA and the engine, so we can make the Su-57/60 purchase decision then.

They are themselves well aware of load carrying capacity while taking off due to thin air from Lhasa and they are building up as well, with extender airstrips. They have 16 air bases along Indian border. And have increased the strength of stealth fighter deployed.


16 air bases? That's peanuts. Plus they have just 6 air bases for fighters in Tibet. Those other 9-10 bases are helicopter and missile bases. This is how they trick people.

And they can't defeat physics. In Tibet, the loss of engine thrust is as high as 40-50%. They need very long runways to operate, and they have so few such runways that we can bomb them to bits. And they can only perform air defense with limited fuel loads.

So they have to operate from bases that are 1000 km away to generate sufficient power, and most of those are in the desert. They can't even takeoff from plains and land on the plateau, their bodies won't handle that kinda stress, so they have to fly back. Which means their J-20 will have about as much endurance as a Mig-21.

They are absolutely not prepared to fight India in the air. That's why they need 6th gen fighter jets and stealth bombers with very long range and in large numbers. The J-XX, JH-XX, and H-20 aren't even flying today. And to counter 200 F-47, 100 GCAP, and 200 B-21, they need at least 500+ J-XX before they can concentrate on India. That's why even with 300-400 J-20s available, they have only 14 in Tibet.

Even today, the biggest air threat to India remains the PAF. And even they can't do anything to India.
 
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They associated the problems with S-400. They think exposing the F-35 to S-400s will see the track data transferred to Russia. But that's nonsensical.

It is theoretically possible that Russian operators/oem crews could've gleaned data on the F-35s radar signature and sent it back to HQ.

You'd recall that Isreali F-35Is stayed clear of Iranian airspace during last year's air strikes until they were able to suppress specific S-400 units in that country. This shows that the threat perception is high.

The Israelis have some kinda deal that prevents the US from selling stealth jets to their neighbors for 15 years.

All that is a thing of the past. After the Abraham accords, there has been a considerable thaw in relations between UAE-Israel. The Isrealis have reportedly even deployed Iron Dome to protect Abu Dhabi and other locations in the UAE.

Trump may well clear F-35 for the UAE once Iran is put in its place.

The F-35 itself isn't a problem. Once ready (2033+), it will be more advanced than anything else we will have until AMCA Mk2, even Rafales.

Sindoor does not even come within the calculations, 2025 operation vs 2030+ operational capability.

The relative boost in capability is not worth the headache associated with dealing with the US 'cause we will get a superior system in the form of AMCA in just a few years after all. Practically parallel inductions at this point.

Acquiring the F-35 would've meant USAF/oem trainers and maintenance crews on our frontline airbases relaying info on IAF ops during Op Sindoor in real time. Not to mention US gaining access to tactical data acquired by the F-35s during the course of ops and potentially tipping off their lackeys in Pak.

Similar concerns have also been raised about the 2 leased MQ-9Bs being operated by the IN. These are reportedly being flown by GA crews based in Arrakonnam, iirc.

The 15 new birds on order for the IN will likely also share MDA data with the US under Comcasa/Beca as part of 'intel sharing'.
 
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