Israel, US Strike Iran After Weeks Of Warning, Explosions Heard In Tehran
- Thread starter Ashwin
- Start date
Indian FM Jay Shankar was offering mediation which nobody accepted. Thats after he called mediation "Dallali" .
To be honest I don't this war stopping. It will continue after a pause.
Trump was moving nuclear bombs towards Iran last night .
There was a SKYKING transmission last night.
Pakistan gave him a face saving.
But the war will start again.
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Iran's UF6 is stored in solid form, is converted to liquid and then to gas for transport for conversion to metal.
It's stored as a gas only in the UCF at Isfahan for the conversion to metal. And it's in small quantities. The bulk is stored as a solid.
To steal the UF6, the solid version will have to be converted to liquid first.
It's stored as a gas only in the UCF at Isfahan for the conversion to metal. And it's in small quantities. The bulk is stored as a solid.
To steal the UF6, the solid version will have to be converted to liquid first.
Nuclear material is still with Iran & no indication they are willing to give it up in this peace deal , the one thing I was actually hoping U.S. to achieve in this shit show of a war U.S. & Israel started.
But well, we're saved from a economic recession, that's good enough i guess.
Hope the peace holds.
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But well, we're saved from a economic recession, that's good enough i guess.
Hope the peace holds.
=======
What a farce.
Probably not a stretch to call this the United States' own 'Suez Moment'.
The Ayatollah regime stays. IRGC stays. Basij still rules the streets. Iran keeps their uranium & enrichment program. The missile & drone arsenals will be rebuilt. The 'Axis of Resistance' terror proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis) remain to impose costs on Israel & Bab El-Mandeb.
On top of that, they gain more control over the Hormuz Strait and become defacto gatekeepers of ~20% of the global energy supply.
Most of the GCC essentially becomes Iran's b!tch to varying extents. The Arab Monarchies' confidence in the US' ability to protect them is shaken to the core and I won't be surprised if many of them choose to no longer host US forces going forward.
The US' own stockpiles of defensive effectors (Patriot, THAAD) are depleted to dangerous levels and will take years to rebuild. So many pre-positioned radar, SIGINT & SATCOM capabilities are lost & will take years and billions of dollars to rebuild to pre-war levels.
An utter & total disaster for US, Israel & Western-aligned actors in the region. Trump's MAGA base will probably try their darndest to spin this as a military victory (which in many ways, it still is) but the fact we can't ignore is that this war is indeed a strategic failure for the US.
Probably not a stretch to call this the United States' own 'Suez Moment'.
The Ayatollah regime stays. IRGC stays. Basij still rules the streets. Iran keeps their uranium & enrichment program. The missile & drone arsenals will be rebuilt. The 'Axis of Resistance' terror proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis) remain to impose costs on Israel & Bab El-Mandeb.
On top of that, they gain more control over the Hormuz Strait and become defacto gatekeepers of ~20% of the global energy supply.
Most of the GCC essentially becomes Iran's b!tch to varying extents. The Arab Monarchies' confidence in the US' ability to protect them is shaken to the core and I won't be surprised if many of them choose to no longer host US forces going forward.
The US' own stockpiles of defensive effectors (Patriot, THAAD) are depleted to dangerous levels and will take years to rebuild. So many pre-positioned radar, SIGINT & SATCOM capabilities are lost & will take years and billions of dollars to rebuild to pre-war levels.
An utter & total disaster for US, Israel & Western-aligned actors in the region. Trump's MAGA base will probably try their darndest to spin this as a military victory (which in many ways, it still is) but the fact we can't ignore is that this war is indeed a strategic failure for the US.
Iran again launched ballistic missile attacks on the Israeli city of Tel Aviv and the Negev region. Tel Aviv's Iron Dome air defense system has become less active due to its diminishing stockpile. Israel's air defenses are now using missiles manufactured in 2026. It's worth noting that the US and Israel also launch missile strikes against Iran daily.
There’s a lot in your post that is directionally strong, but it mixes solid diagnosis with overstatement.
The strongest part is this: a military campaign can still be a strategic failure. Reuters has already framed exactly that possibility, warning that a war meant to break Iran could instead leave Tehran stronger, the Gulf more exposed, and global energy markets rattled while the U.S. looks for a way out.
Where your post is strongest:
Iran’s regime has not been overthrown. The current ceasefire is a two-week pause, not regime change, and Reuters reports that Iran entered it with demands for guarantees, compensation, and durable terms rather than surrender.
Iran’s missile problem is not solved cleanly. Reuters reported that the U.S. could confirm destruction of only about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal, with a large uncertain remainder, much of it underground or hard to assess.
Hormuz has become a source of Iranian leverage, at least politically. Reuters reported Iranian demands tied to shipping and the Strait, including fees and conditions linked to a broader settlement. That is not the same thing as permanent Iranian control, but it does show Tehran emerged from the war with bargaining power around the Strait.
Gulf confidence in the U.S. is indeed shaken. Reuters and regional analysis both point to deep Gulf unease about U.S. protection, especially after sustained attacks on Gulf infrastructure and Washington’s wavering over escalation versus exit.
U.S. interceptor depletion is a real concern. While Reuters has not given a definitive official depletion number in the same style as the post, multiple serious analyses say the war has burned through critical stocks at a pace that could take years to rebuild, and Reuters reporting on broader munitions strain is consistent with that concern.
Where your post goes too far:
“On top of that, they gain more control over Hormuz” is too absolute. Iran gained coercive leverage and bargaining position, but the current arrangement is a ceasefire-linked reopening, not uncontested Iranian sovereignty over the Strait.
“Most of the GCC essentially becomes Iran’s bitch” is rhetoric, not analysis. Gulf states were badly exposed, but that does not mean political subordination. What is fair to say is that their confidence in Washington has been damaged and their hedging behavior will likely increase.
“Iran keeps their uranium & enrichment program” is likely true in the immediate sense, but it is still under negotiation pressure. Reuters has consistently reported that zero enrichment remained a major sticking point and that any final deal would revolve around nuclear limits, not simple acceptance of the status quo.
“The Axis of Resistance remains” is broadly true, but the post understates that these actors also took losses and may not be emerging unchanged. Saying they “remain” is fair; saying they emerge untouched is not.
So the clean verdict is:
Yes, it is reasonable to call this a strategic setback for the U.S. even if tactically it inflicted serious damage. But calling it a total Iranian win overstates it.
What seems truest is this:
Washington and Israel showed they could hit hard.
Iran showed it could survive, impose costs, and leave the war without the core political outcome its enemies wanted.
That is exactly the kind of outcome that makes people reach for “Suez moment.” My tighter version would be:
Not a total U.S. collapse, not an Iranian triumph in every sense — but very plausibly a strategic failure if the war ends with Tehran still standing, Hormuz leverage intact, Gulf trust damaged, and U.S. munitions stocks badly thinned.
Indian FM Jay Shankar was offering mediation which nobody accepted. Thats after he called mediation "Dallali" .
To be honest I don't this war stopping. It will continue after a pause.
Trump was moving nuclear bombs towards Iran last night .
There was a SKYKING transmission last night.
Pakistan gave him a face saving.
But the war will start again.
Now you guys internalise misinformation to delude yourself. Must be very hard, coming up with soothing delusions every day due to the musings from Pakistan. After all, for pak, a day without humiliation is a day wasted.
U.S. and Israeli officials gathered first in the Cabinet Room, adjacent to the Oval Office. Then Mr. Netanyahu headed downstairs for the main event: a highly classified presentation on Iran for President Trump and his team in the White House Situation Room, which was rarely used for in-person meetings with foreign leaders.
In the Situation Room on Feb. 11, Mr. Netanyahu made a hard sell, suggesting that Iran was ripe for regime change and expressing the belief that a joint U.S.-Israeli mission could finally bring an end to the Islamic Republic.
At one point, the Israelis played for Mr. Trump a brief video that included a montage of potential new leaders who could take over the country if the hard-line government fell. Among those featured was Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, now a Washington-based dissident who had tried to position himself as a secular leader who could shepherd Iran toward a post-theocratic government.
Mr. Netanyahu and his team outlined conditions they portrayed as pointing to near-certain victory: Iran’s ballistic missile program could be destroyed in a few weeks. The regime would be so weakened that it could not choke off the Strait of Hormuz, and the likelihood that Iran would land blows against U.S. interests in neighboring countries was assessed as minimal.
Besides, Mossad’s intelligence indicated that street protests inside Iran would begin again and — with the impetus of the Israeli spy agency helping to foment riots and rebellion — an intense bombing campaign could foster the conditions for the Iranian opposition to overthrow the regime. The Israelis also raised the prospect of Iranian Kurdish fighters crossing the border from Iraq to open a ground front in the northwest, further stretching the regime’s forces and accelerating its collapse.
The Main Question is that Should the Negotiations collapse in the Next 2 weeks , Which Side will be In a Favorable position to RE START the conflict
Obviously USA
Now is the time when Iran will count its losses and See what Economic and Military Assets are left
If conflict restarts , all blame will fall on Iranian Hardliners
This is the exact situation How the 1991 , First Gulf War ended
Saddam's regime was intact but his capabilities destroyed
And with Sanctions in force he could Not Rebuild in the Next 12 years when the Final Iraq war started in 2003
Israel calls its strategy
As " Mowing the Grass "
If Iran tries to Rebuild its Missile Facilities, The Bombings will start again
US also needs Time and Intelligence to exactly Map out the Military Targets Which are still hidden underground
GCC countries are seething with Anger on Iran
They would be the most interested in US resuming its attacks on Iran
They would be the most interested in US resuming its attacks on Iran
uh....pakistanis as usual are missing the forest for the trees. There is nothing to be gained by getting involved in the politics of the countries west of India i.e. inserting oneself into their conflicts.Indian FM Jay Shankar was offering mediation which nobody accepted. Thats after he called mediation "Dallali" .
To be honest I don't this war stopping. It will continue after a pause.
Trump was moving nuclear bombs towards Iran last night .
There was a SKYKING transmission last night.
Pakistan gave him a face saving.
But the war will start again.
With an exception of a few, pretty much all of them are miserable dictatorships with minuscule scientific innovation. These countries had a century of wealth sitting under them and all they could do was create glass buildings in the desert(with subcontinent slaves) & buy shiny super-cars. These are not serious people. 100 years from now they will still be miserable & will keep fighting each other. There is nothing to be gained by being involved with them. I think that defence MoU that India signed with UAE was a misstep.
My opinions on this forum get a lot of negative reactions because i say uncomfortable things that tick a lot of people off (I dont particularly like modi as well). So @safriz , this is my honest opinion. Pakistanis are so starved for +ve things in their lives that any small little crumb of global attention they get, they start beating their chests without assessing whether there is any upside to it all. Pakistanis ofcourse see everything with the lens of global izzat. Jaishanker never made any serious effort to mediate b/w Iran & US. How could he??? That would involve mingling with Trump which Modi has been trying to avoid since that catastrophic call in June.
non-paywall link: https://archive.is/u1NGc
So, when you say jaishanker's mediation was rejected, all i see is how badly you people read international events, which ofcourse happens cause you are starved for attention.
Ukraine-Russia war has been going on since 2022. India has working relations with both sides. a lot of words are spoken by the indian govt regarding mediation b/w russia & ukraine but indian govt does nothing concrete here as well. And thats the right thing to do cause there is no benefit to be had by taking someone else's headache onto your own. Qatar has been mediating b/w Russia & ukraine, did that stop them from being bombed?? Instead Qatar had the distinction of being bombed by both Israel & Iran.
Another example was 2025 China Victory Day Parade on 3 September 2025. Modi attended the leader's summit but skipped the military parade(slick move even I have to admit). I was astonished to read that Pakistanis were spinning that as an insult to Modi cause he was not invited. That is such a horrible misreading of the event that i was face-palming, but i guess pakistanis need to make up such stories to feel good about themselves. I mean who wouldn't want to be seen shoulder to shoulder with the great Kim Jong Un. Of course pakistanis can afford to strain their relations with Japan & South Korea. Who needs their hundreds of billions in FDI??? Not Pakistan!! Amirite!!
Pakistani military elites require external validation cause they have captured power without complete domestic acceptence. That validation is the quintissential need of a dictatorship. So, these elites keep taking on other's problems but will not solve their own domestic problems. Pakistani awam is misreading the events. They see the success of these military elites as their own. I am not complaing though cause if pakistan takes on this headache and reduces energy prices, India can maintain its 7% growth. Economy is the most important thing in the end. India also benefits if pakistan takes on this headache. Pakistani awam ofcourse misconstrues this as India's beizzati & pakistan's global stature being increased. If this elongates the rule of Asim Munir, even better. Cause that means that Pakistan's economy stays in the gutter. No military ruler runs a good economy.
Whatever the case, 10 years from now, i know it for a fact that these same pakistanis will be cursing the same US for using and then throwing them away. This cyclic pattern has been going on since independence.
Its such a stark difference between India & Pakistan. Pakistanis are celebrating that their country is now globally relevant meanwhile Indians are celebrating scientific & industrial achievements.
Fast Breeder nuclear reactor at Kalpakam takes ‘critical’ leap forward
India's first fast-breeder reactor in Kalpakkam achieves criticality, marking a significant milestone in the nation's nuclear journey.
India’s nuclear push gets boost as fast-breeder reactor reaches criticality; why it matters - The Times of India
Defence News: NEW DELHI: India has taken a major step towards nuclear fuel self-reliance after its indigenously developed Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) at K.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
India’s nuclear leap: Why its fast breeder reactor success matters
India's most advanced reactor has set the country on a path towards potentially cutting its dependence on uranium.
I did not read the entire comment, but I will do so.uh....pakistanis as usual are missing the forest for the trees. There is nothing to be gained by getting involved in the politics of the countries west of India i.e. inserting oneself into their conflicts.
View attachment 51009
With an exception of a few, pretty much all of them are miserable dictatorships with minuscule scientific innovation. These countries had a century of wealth sitting under them and all they could do was create glass buildings in the desert(with subcontinent slaves) & buy shiny super-cars. These are not serious people. 100 years from now they will still be miserable & will keep fighting each other. There is nothing to be gained by being involved with them. I think that defence MoU that India signed with UAE was a misstep.
My opinions on this forum get a lot of negative reactions because i say uncomfortable things that tick a lot of people off (I dont particularly like modi as well). So @safriz , this is my honest opinion. Pakistanis are so starved for +ve things in their lives that any small little crumb of global attention they get, they start beating their chests without assessing whether there is any upside to it all. Pakistanis ofcourse see everything with the lens of global izzat. Jaishanker never made any serious effort to mediate b/w Iran & US. How could he??? That would involve mingling with Trump which Modi has been trying to avoid since that catastrophic call in June.
non-paywall link: https://archive.is/u1NGc
So, when you say jaishanker's mediation was rejected, all i see is how badly you people read international events, which ofcourse happens cause you are starved for attention.
Ukraine-Russia war has been going on since 2022. India has working relations with both sides. a lot of words are spoken by the indian govt regarding mediation b/w russia & ukraine but indian govt does nothing concrete here as well. And thats the right thing to do cause there is no benefit to be had by taking someone else's headache onto your own. Qatar has been mediating b/w Russia & ukraine, did that stop them from being bombed?? Instead Qatar had the distinction of being bombed by both Israel & Iran.
Another example was 2025 China Victory Day Parade on 3 September 2025. Modi attended the leader's summit but skipped the military parade(slick move even I have to admit). I was astonished to read that Pakistanis were spinning that as an insult to Modi cause he was not invited. That is such a horrible misreading of the event that i was face-palming, but i guess pakistanis need to make up such stories to feel good about themselves. I mean who wouldn't want to be seen shoulder to shoulder with the great Kim Jong Un. Of course pakistanis can afford to strain their relations with Japan & South Korea. Who needs their hundreds of billions in FDI??? Not Pakistan!! Amirite!!
Pakistani military elites require external validation cause they have captured power without complete domestic acceptence. That validation is the quintissential need of a dictatorship. So, these elites keep taking on other's problems but will not solve their own domestic problems. Pakistani awam is misreading the events. They see the success of these military elites as their own. I am not complaing though cause if pakistan takes on this headache and reduces energy prices, India can maintain its 7% growth. Economy is the most important thing in the end. India also benefits if pakistan takes on this headache. Pakistani awam ofcourse misconstrues this as India's beizzati & pakistan's global stature being increased. If this elongates the rule of Asim Munir, even better. Cause that means that Pakistan's economy stays in the gutter. No military ruler runs a good economy.
Whatever the case, 10 years from now, i know it for a fact that these same pakistanis will be cursing the same US for using and then throwing them away. This cyclic pattern has been going on since independence.
Its such a stark difference between India & Pakistan. Pakistanis are celebrating that their country is now globally relevant meanwhile Indians are celebrating scientific & industrial achievements.
View attachment 51010
Fast Breeder nuclear reactor at Kalpakam takes ‘critical’ leap forward
India's first fast-breeder reactor in Kalpakkam achieves criticality, marking a significant milestone in the nation's nuclear journey.www.thehindu.com
India’s nuclear push gets boost as fast-breeder reactor reaches criticality; why it matters - The Times of India
Defence News: NEW DELHI: India has taken a major step towards nuclear fuel self-reliance after its indigenously developed Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) at K.India’s nuclear leap: Why its fast breeder reactor success matters
India's most advanced reactor has set the country on a path towards potentially cutting its dependence on uranium.www.aljazeera.com
For a start you say no point for india to get involved in countries to the west.
Both Afghanistan and Iran are to the west.
India has more counsolstes in Afghanistan than Amy other country. India has invested in their dans and many other projects. Likewise very active in supporting Terrorists in Afghanistan against Pakistan.
Same for Iran. Investment in Chah Bahaar. Kalbhoshan Yadev was operating from Iran ,orchestrating Balochi terrorism against Pakistan.
Also when you say Pakistan gor "crums of attention " . You are wrong. Pakistani name is everywhere after btokering this cease fire and working for a permanent solution.
In fact this will go down in history.
You say Modi been avoiding Trump ?
Seriously? Who's been calling him on the phone, inviting india and giving him reception in stadium full of people. Trump been doing this to modi . Also Modi never misses as chance to bump into Trump at any international meeting where both are attending.
When you repeatedly say Jay Shanker made no efforts in mediation. Thats because nobody asked india to be a mediator.
Neither Iran nor USA.
Israel had been issuing statements in favour of india to be the mediator, but nobody took that seriously.
So grapes are sour.
About Ukraine Russia war. The only foreign leder who visited Russia in the first week of the war was Pakistani PM Imran Khan, despite the entire EU asking him to cancel his visit.
About Modi not invited to Chinese victory day parade. Didn't India get thrashed in Galwan , during border clashes between China and i India? Would be awkward to go celebrate victory of the country which thrashed you .
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You're reading too much into it.
Pakistan is just a facilitator. And it seems even the tweets of your PM are being stage-managed by outsiders. So yes, enjoy the 'spotlight' while it lasts. I'm sure it must feel like the world after years of isolation. Bribing Trump admin officials has its perks.
But it would be a mistake to read too much into it. Belarus didn't become a bigger power just because the Minsk Agreements were signed between Russia, Ukraine & the Western powers using their country as a neutral ground.
In the end, a country's standing at the global stage is down to what its own resilience & capabilities are. Pakistan's position vis-a-vis India (or anyone else in the region) remains the same as it was before. No better, no worse.
Yes, but Pakistan isn't Belarus.
Pakistan is a world renowned military power.
Pakistan shot down Iranian drone and also bombed Iranian territory after they tried to show military might to Pakistan .
The reason Iran listening to Pakistan is because they know Pakistan can hit them .
Now because of military pact with the Saudis.
It has been conveyed to iran that if they don't stop hitting Saudis, Pakistan will have to jump in.
Its not a Belarus like situation, far from it.
Wrong Again
Pakistan has No Reputation
And No Self Respect
So if The so called Negotiatons end in failure, which they will , Pakistan has Nothing to lose
Pakistan's Only concern here is the Repayment of Debt
So by Acting as a Well Wisher of Saudis and Chinese , you just want some More dollars to be thrown at you
Now your Leaders will Beg for IMF relaxation solely on the basis of this " Achievement "
You are Earning Money by DALALI
Why did NOT China and Russia act as Mediators
They have good relations with Iran
Just PRAY that Saudis don't ask for Money like UAE is doing
Nope. Pakistan has been a well wisher of the Muslim world since independence.Wrong Again
Pakistan has No Reputation
And No Self Respect
So if The so called Negotiatons end in failure, which they will , Pakistan has Nothing to lose
Pakistan's Only concern here is the Repayment of Debt
So by Acting as a Well Wisher of Saudis and Chinese , you just want some More dollars to be thrown at you
Now your Leaders will Beg for IMF relaxation solely on the basis of this " Achievement "
You are Earning Money by DALALI
Why did NOT China and Russia act as Mediators
They have good relations with Iran
Just PRAY that Saudis don't ask for Money like UAE is doing
For example the Algerians travelled to UN on Pakistani passports, when France blocked them from travelling abroad, during their war of independence.
On this matter , I don't trust IRGC . They are under nobody's control, not even Iranian civilian leaders can control IRGC.
UZntil that matter is not resolved, the may not stop ...at least permanently