Israel, US Strike Iran After Weeks Of Warning, Explosions Heard In Tehran

[jmaxwell_]

One theory is to bring the situation in the St. of Hormuz to a stalemate. The MEU from Tripoli along with the 82nd AD will hold the islands mentioned in post #1,078 along with Musandam peninsula. Note that Bandar Abbas is well within reach of GMLRS from Musandam. With ATACMS/PRSM targets much deeper along Iran's southern coast can be hit. (But there is likely no possibility of taking and holding Qeshm and the southern Iranian coast with just these troops -- it will likely need more than a division, potentially a corps.)

The goal would be to stop all of Iran's own shipments along the strait putting them under high economic pressure while potentially opening up the bottom shipping lane through to the western coast of UAE and taking the pipeline to Fujairah. At the very least, degrade Iran's ability to control the strait unilaterally.



IMHO, this is still high risk and I don't think the GCC will hold out as long as the US hopes.

 

[jmaxwell_]

Years means they are getting close. Are you trying to claim there is no program?

There is no credible evidence that Iran was going beyond 60% HEU.

Here is DNI Gabbard saying so: Gabbard Says Iran Did Not Rebuild Nuclear Program After 2025 Strikes, Contradicting Trump

And so is Ambassador Wendy Sherman, who negotiated the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement that Trump later withdrew from:

If Iran didn't have a nuclear program, didn't back terrorists and launch BMs at neighbours, it would be just another Cuba and it would be left alone.

Iran was still going to get bombed if it didn't stop with the "Death to America" bull$hit. IMHO, we won't leave NK alone either, but hopefully that's an operation which will be conducted under the presidency of someone with far greater intellect than the orange cheeto.

 

[randomradio]

Here's a good piece on that topic:

How could a US ground invasion of Iran look like? – Takshashila Institution

takshashila.org.in

Hugging the coastline while allowing Iran to keep control of the heights seems like suicide. Another problem is Iranian loyalists acting as spies and saboteurs in Iraq.

Otoh, Sistan by sea and Pakistan by land seem more viable. Roping the Taliban in would also do wonders.

I'm not sure if Trump has the capacity to invade Iran, especially a multi-pronged attack, and without Congressional support. The magnitude of the effort required is nothing like Iraq.

The article highlights Iran lacking external support and funding, but Russia and China could change that if the Iranians show the same amount of resilience the Ukrainians did.

Trump's dug himself into a nice big hole during an election year.

 

[_Anonymous_]

A mind-blowing factoid regarding the ancient languages spoken in India (Sanskrit) & Iran (Avestan). Keep in mind there is a vowel shift -- "s" in Sanskrit is "h" in Avestan.

In Sanskrit, the word "Asura" means 'evil being', whereas in Avestan "Ahura" means 'divine being'.

Asura in Skt means great lord. It attracted negative connotations after the split in the Indo Iranian religion.

Additionally, in Sanskrit the word "Daeva" means 'divine being', whereas in Avestan it means 'evil being'.

The Mazdayasnis or followers of Ahura Mazda inverted the Vedic religion which eventually became Zoroastrianism. It's probably the first known instance of a counter religion in the history of religions .

Lol, there is something deep buried in the memetic dna of our two peoples...

Lot of similarities between ancient Vedic & Avestan people . They had the varna vyavastha , they respected the cow , they were the original fire worshippers & users of Soma called Haoma in such fire sacrifices.

The Atharva Veda has a lot in common with the Avesta to the extent that they're considered twin books wherein the Avesta was retained by the Iranics & Atharva Veda became part of the Vedic texts.

 

[_Anonymous_]

One theory is to bring the situation in the St. of Hormuz to a stalemate. The MEU from Tripoli along with the 82nd AD will hold the islands mentioned in post #1,078 along with Musandam peninsula. Note that Bandar Abbas is well within reach of GMLRS from Musandam. With ATACMS/PRSM targets much deeper along Iran's southern coast can be hit. (But there is likely no possibility of taking and holding Qeshm and the southern Iranian coast with just these troops -- it will likely need more than a division, potentially a corps.)

The goal would be to stop all of Iran's own shipments along the strait putting them under high economic pressure while potentially opening up the bottom shipping lane through to the western coast of UAE and taking the pipeline to Fujairah. At the very least, degrade Iran's ability to control the strait unilaterally.

View attachment 50671

IMHO, this is still high risk and I don't think the GCC will hold out as long as the US hopes.

The mobilization of ground troops is a feint to buy time in order to take out as many high profile individuals associated with the regime as possible as well as to degrade as much of the war fighting machinery of Iran along with its infrastructure as possible . It's also to put pressure on Iran to agree to an unconditional CF.

Apparently Mojtaba Khamenei has already narrowly escaped at least two reported assassination attempts on his life . Both the Israelis & the Americans are gunning for him & his loyalists desperately , especially Mojtaba.

Trump & particularly the Israelis aren't stupid enough to put boots on the ground , a special op here or there notwithstanding , though I doubt the US is going to conduct even that.

In Mumbai we have a phrase in the local lingo for the kind of behaviour Trump is displaying . It's called - yeda bankar peda khana.

For more details on the phrase , it's meaning & implications please get in touch with my assistant @STEPHEN COHEN . He'd be delighted to help.

 

[randomradio]

A mind-blowing factoid regarding the ancient languages spoken in India (Sanskrit) & Iran (Avestan). Keep in mind there is a vowel shift -- "s" in Sanskrit is "h" in Avestan.

In Sanskrit, the word "Asura" means 'evil being', whereas in Avestan "Ahura" means 'divine being'.

Additionally, in Sanskrit the word "Daeva" means 'divine being', whereas in Avestan it means 'evil being'.

Lol, there is something deep buried in the memetic dna of our two peoples...

In the Rig Veda, asuras were generally divine beings. It evolved into evil beings later on.

Indo-Iranians (Persian plateau) and Indo-Aryans (India) moved via Central Asia into these two regions, apparently after a conflict, and ended up creating their own cultures using a shared foundation.

I guess the evolution of asura into evil beings was due to Zoroastrians replacing their Vedic-linked gods like Indra with the monotheistic Ahura Mazda by their prohpet Zarathustra so Vedic Indo-Aryans did not get influenced by their modified religion.

Zarathustra created stories where he pretended Ahura Mazda created the Hapta Hendu, or Sapta Sindhu, so you can imagine the ideological conflict continued.

 

[jmaxwell_]

Thanks @_Anonymous_ and @randomradio
This is truly fascinating!

 

[randomradio]

Ah, life back on easy mode for Iran.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036173360183361997

 

[Shan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036216006876475773

 

[Shan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036266565801332899

Markets across Asia continue to react to the Iran war. Found this post. There are many intl. events and visits being re-scheduled.

 

[jetray]

Ah, life back on easy mode for Iran.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036173360183361997

Irony is that other arab monkeys who were happy keeping iran ouf of oil market are at the receiving end.
Icing on the cake must be the stupid pigs in qatar who exported gas from gas field which is shared with iran have taken massive damage. Now the biggest benefactor of it is US whose LNG exports are going to increase.

I bet iran can now negotiate a oil export quota for themselves for the next decade and if west doesnt agree , keep the blockade on. They just discovered a new cheat code. Unless telsas start selling for $10k its going to be pretty hard.

 

[randomradio]

Irony is that other arab monkeys who were happy keeping iran ouf of oil market are at the receiving end.
Icing on the cake must be the stupid pigs in qatar who exported gas from gas field which is shared with iran have taken massive damage. Now the biggest benefactor of it is US whose LNG exports are going to increase.

I bet iran can now negotiate a oil export quota for themselves for the next decade and if west doesnt agree , keep the blockade on. They just discovered a new cheat code. Unless telsas start selling for $10k its going to be pretty hard.

If all we see is Iran earning more money while they keep quiet and maintain peace, it's fine by us. But it's the Middle East.

There are other alternative threats too.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/azerbaijan-says-it-foils-iranian-plots-including-plan-attack-major-pipeline-2026-03-07/

This pipeline supplies 30% of Israel's oil. Take it out and Israel will attempt to do something serious to Iran and the cycle will start again.

I get the feeling Modi will push our bio-CNG and green hydrogen program forward, get rid of natural gas in fertilizer production all the more sooner. And we need to scale up our oil reserves by a month. Current reserves are too low for such antics.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Thanks @_Anonymous_ and @randomradio
This is truly fascinating!

Yeah , there was also no Indo Iranic split in Central Asia . F.E. Pargiter a British official who later became an Indologist having translated the Puranas reveals none of the original or later Puranas have ever spoken on immigration.

Ancient Indian Historical Tradition : Pargiter, F. E. : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

Book Source: Digital Library of India Item 2015.38311dc.contributor.author: Pargiter, F. E.dc.date.accessioned: 2015-06-25T22:02:28Zdc.date.available:...

archive.org

All of them have categorically spoken of emigration of Vedic / Indic tribes from the geographical boundaries of Aryavarta or out of Paxtani Punjab - the core area of the Vedic people .

That being Western UP , Haryana & Delhi later expanded to include NE Rajasthan , East of our Punjab later encapsulating both Punjabs & so on .

The Indo Iranic religious divide predates Zarathustra by centuries if not a millenium. As is traditional in their belief system , over a period of time devotion shifts from one diety to another.

The Indo Iranics started worshipping Indra , a shift from Varuna - Mitra ( the former was to later become Ahura Mazda ) who was the premier diety in the Vedic pantheon also characterised as an Asura or Great Lord.

The trouble started when there was a clash between these tribes where Sudas of the Bharata tribe of the super tribe Puru clashed with the Anus , Druhyus etc in Dasrajina - The Battle of The 10 Kings , some of these tribes also being part of the super tribe - the Puru , on the banks of the Parushni River which is the River Ravi precisely where the border between India & Paxtan sits today in the Punjab.

Long story short - Sudas prevailed & those other tribes were pushed out of what's now India into Paxtani Punjab & from there eventually into Afghanistan.

Since both invoked Indra who effectively it appears sided with the Bharatas , the other side repudiated the pre eminence of Indra & reverted to the old pantheon branding Indra & the Devas as demons .

This belief was much later crystallised as a religion - Zoroastrianism by Zarathustra . Read up Srikant Talageri's blog for more insights.

Of course all this is pretty much speculation but as far as intelligent penetrating insights go I've not come across anyone else who's put up a better postulate of this split within the Indo Iranics.

 

[_Anonymous_]

By permitting Iran's tankers to export O&NG , the US is creating perfect deterrence & paving the way for the possibility or rather the certainty of sanctions down the road since this is Iran we're talking about which has sworn to wipe off Israel from the map of the world & characterises the US as The Great Satan.

It means if Iran can be free to export , so must the GCC. Any attacks in the Straits of Hormuz on tankers carrying GCC O&NG & tomorrow there could be drones which can attack tankers carrying Iranian O&NG too .

The idea is to let Iran export & some time in the future gradually reintroduce sanctions on their O&NG exports in a graduated manner.

With their economy in the dumps & important infrastructure all but gone the Mullah regime has no bargaining power. If it sticks to its guns & keeps targetting tankers carrying GCC O&NG , while exporting O&NG themselves , the US , Israel & the GCC aren't blessed with infinite patience to tolerate these attacks. They will not just be reciprocated but will be disproportionate after a period of time .

Guys learn to use your critical intelligence & not be taken in by anything & everything you find on SM . The western media there is heavily biased against the Trump administration & will not miss the opportunity to diss him or his actions highlighting the most minor mistake attempting to portray it as catastrophic.

Then there's Israel & specifically Satanyahud involved - a red rag to the Left Liberal media establishment of the West more so after what he's done to their beloved Gaza.

If you think Trump is some chump you couldn't be further from the truth. If someone like me with no access to any information save what's in the public domain can discern this , think what Trump can do who has the entire US war & diplomatic machinery at his disposal , whose bread & butter is conflict & its management.

Then there's Israel . Their entire existence is predicated on not taking a wrong step as what can be inconvenience to the US can be an existential problem to the Jews. Those guys have been preparing for just such a conflict with Iran since the past 2 decades.

You think they wouldn't have war gamed all such possibilities & much more multiple times before opening hostilities against Iran ? Come on guys , think. We aren't in breds nor is this Adobe Acrobat Forum.

 

[BMD]

They had restricted themselves to 60%, achieved in 2006, and 20% restrictions as per JCPOA provisions decided by the US in 2015, with over 90% reduction in stockpile.

But even before that, 2005, they had unilaterally declared that they won't chase after nuclear weapons and have stuck to that.

So no, they did not have a nuclear weapons program in 2026. They only had an enrichment program which was halted at 60% long ago. While they were threatening to remove that cap, they never did.

They crossed the 20% enrichment mandated by JCPOA after Trump withdrew from JCPOA in 2018.



Israel attacked Iran first. They attacked Iran's consulate in Damascus. Iran responded with drone and BMs but with minimal damage.

There is no credible evidence that Iran was going beyond 60% HEU.

Here is DNI Gabbard saying so: Gabbard Says Iran Did Not Rebuild Nuclear Program After 2025 Strikes, Contradicting Trump

And so is Ambassador Wendy Sherman, who negotiated the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement that Trump later withdrew from:

Iran was still going to get bombed if it didn't stop with the "Death to America" bull$hit. IMHO, we won't leave NK alone either, but hopefully that's an operation which will be conducted under the presidency of someone with far greater intellect than the orange cheeto.

You don't enrich to 60% for anything other than a military nuclear program. Civilian reactor fuel is about 3%. Why was it building a second even deeper underground facility at the Pick Axe Mountain site in addition to Natanz?

Credible evidence of going over 60% in a restricted underground facility is a nuclear weapon!

 

[Parthu]

Looks like the full-scale SOF op (Rangers + Tier-1s) that I predicted is going ahead. The MEU/Airborne troops landing on Kharg/mainland may be a sideshow or feint as SOCOM goes in to grab nuclear material:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036244651556880718

 

[BMD]

Natanz Nuclear Facility - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

According to an analysis of satellite images by The Washington Post, after the American strike, Iran began accelerating construction on the underground site of Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La ("Pickaxe Mountain") tunneled into the Zagros mountain range approximately one mile to the south of the Natanz nuclear facility.<a href="Natanz Nuclear Facility - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>84<span>]</span></a> Although work on the site began in 2020, international inspectors were never given access.<a href="Natanz Nuclear Facility - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>84<span>]</span></a> According to analysts who monitor the site's development, its depth may exceed that of the Natanz Site, at 260-330 feet, and is potentially intended for the secure storage of Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium or for covert uranium enrichment.<a href="Natanz Nuclear Facility - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>84<span>]</span></a>

 

[BMD]

Israel attacked Iran first. They attacked Iran's consulate in Damascus. Iran responded with drone and BMs but with minimal damage.

Hezbollah is Iran too, they attacked first. Iran was likely behind the Hamas attack too.

 

[randomradio]

You don't enrich to 60% for anything other than a military nuclear program. Civilian reactor fuel is about 3%. Why was it building a second even deeper underground facility at the Pick Axe Mountain site in addition to Natanz?

Credible evidence of going over 60% in a restricted underground facility is a nuclear weapon!

Let's see. In 2018, when Trump withdrew from JCPOA, Iran had zero kg of 60% uranium.

They were allowed 3.67% enrichment of U-235 below a cap of 300 kg and they had 123.9 kg.

In 2018, Trump withdrew from JCPOA and reimposed sanctions.

In 2020, Iran warned they will enrich above 20% if sanctions were not lifted. In 2021, they had 6.5 kg of 60% and a few hundred kg by 2025.

Ah, of course, Israel attacked Natanz twice, once in 2020 and again in 2021. Post which, they decided to restart 60% enrichment.

Iran Natanz nuclear site suffered major damage, official says

Thousands of centrifuges were taken out in the deliberate blast deep underground, the official says.

www.bbc.com

So, no, they did not have a weapons program under JCPOA. And not even in 2025.

All this was in response to Trump's "maximum pressure" and Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facility.

Yeah....... It's one of those my way or the highway rules.

 

[screambowl]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036266565801332899

Markets across Asia continue to react to the Iran war. Found this post. There are many intl. events and visits being re-scheduled.

Why not US, Europe. I am by the way fascinated to see that even China is not affected. All these nations have done extremely well to secure their livelihoods and resources for their people. Exceptionally good performance. Whole Ukraine war, there was no major gas shortage even to industries in Europe. Marvelous!