Israel, US Strike Iran After Weeks Of Warning, Explosions Heard In Tehran

[BMD]

Yeah, you're way off the reality.

First it doesn't just kill people on the site, it kicks up irradiated debris (fallout) that the wind carries across borders.

Nope. Fallout kills 15% of the non-fatal casualties. Still way less than the 30,000 murdered by the regime.

NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein

NUKEMAP is a website for visualizing the effects of nuclear detonations.

nuclearsecrecy.com

Europe ain't coming, and dropping a nuke in this case ain't about just casualties it will cause, its about the symbolic meaning it give, the short and long term social,political, geopolitical costs that U.S.,Republicans,trump, Israel will have to face. And the long term negative social,political and Economical,geopolitical effect it will cause for the U.S. as a whole.

Long-term it will stop lunatic regimes attempting to do the same as Iran.

Not just that,It will set a precedent, like in future Russia's chances of using a tactical nuke on Ukraine will increase manifold, if u.s. nukes Iran.
And many other nations will rush to get their nukes if a precedent is set of use of nuclear weapons in modern day again a non nuclear capable nation Poland, Japan, s.k., maybe even Germany will think of getting sovereign nukes, Turkey etc.

Don't see it that way, different circumstances, different geographies. The nuke was used because a lunatic regime was rushing towards a nuclear bomb, not because of any other disagreement, and it was used only on sites associated with that nuclear proliferation and only because there was no other way of taking them out except a nuclear weapon.

WHO officials admit they are preparing for possible nuclear weapon use in Iran

World Health Organization staff remain ‘vigiliant’ in the event of a nuclear incident

www.independent.co.uk

 

[babablacksheep]

Nope. Fallout kills 15% of the non-fatal casualties. Still way less than the 30,000 murdered by the regime.

NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein

NUKEMAP is a website for visualizing the effects of nuclear detonations.

nuclearsecrecy.com

View attachment 50605

Long-term it will stop lunatic regimes attempting to do the same as Iran.

Don't see it that way, different circumstances, different geographies. The nuke was used because a lunatic regime was rushing towards a nuclear bomb, not because of any other disagreement, and it was used only on sites associated with that nuclear proliferation and only because there was no other way of taking them out except a nuclear weapon.

WHO officials admit they are preparing for possible nuclear weapon use in Iran

World Health Organization staff remain ‘vigiliant’ in the event of a nuclear incident

www.independent.co.uk

Are you even aware that just because you see it that way and find it justified, others do not, majority of the world governments ain't buying that, majority of U.S. citizens too ain't buying your justification.

It will be global suicide for Israel and Republicans also accelerating long term U.S. decline, giving birth of a EVEN more dangerous geopolitical world for everyone.

For the world and for American citizens too, trump,Israel, Republicans will become *lunatics will nukes that have actually used it*. you're justification of * its justified to prevent a lunatic nation from getting nukes* nobody will buy it.


====

**~15% of survivors will die of cancer**, dying is not the only form of casualty,radiation sickness, genetic effects, environmental damage, psychological/societal trauma etc would add layers, even if "limited."

 

[BMD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035363890612052303

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035342006319272185

 

[babablacksheep]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035363890612052303

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035342006319272185

Maybe if they actually had, Iran wouldn't have been able to close the Strait.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2017575869305303440

https://twitter.com/x/status/2014897181858095156

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031604159850394011

 

[babablacksheep]

If their energy infrastructure becomes vulnerable do you think ours would remain .

If they already attacking our cities like Delhi, than they will also be attacking our energy infra, escalation will have reached way beyond if they are willing to attack delhi.

There's a balance of terror or MAD in the conventional sphere as well. You just saw it play out in the ME a few days ago where Israel bombed the South Pars fields & Iran retaliated against Israel Qatar UAE Kuwait & KSA taking out similar targets.

Why do you think our war will be different with China ? Most of their industrial & population centers I repeat are located 3-4000 kms away from our mainland whereas ours are barely 4-800 kms from the LAC.

And balance of terror can be dynamic, you don't need them to target same thing for you to target same thing on their side.
Like china considers attack on Three Gorges Dam equivalent to a nuclear attack and will retaliate with nukes.

 

[Shan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035154981402058913

 

[Subgradewalker]

I personally don't know why they don't just drop a B83 on Natanz and Pick Axe Mountain sites and call it job done. It'll only kill 800 people (most of them nuclear scientists and technicians plus IRGC security staff) and the regime has already murdered 30,000 civilians this year, so it's negligible by comparison.

And then you wonder why countries like Iran, NK ( anti-west) are pursuing Nuclear weapons so relentlessly.

How many nuclear missiles do you think US can intercept if China & Russia follows it too? Whole "Cold War" was cold, to steer away from this very action.
So many wars have happened, so much money spent on regime changes, NGOs ecosystem, Ground invasions by west.. why didn't they opt for easy option and dropped a couple on gaddafi and saddam? Because US isn't the only one with the Red button as in case of Nagasaki.

How likely would you say it is that rest of the nuclear nations ban US forces near their geography.. going as far as to changing the N-policy to First use at the slightest hint of agression?

Or how many of N-sites of Pakistan does US & China are confidently monitoring? What if 1 or 2 of those big bombs find themselves in the hand of "rebel", "cartels"?
Or the potentially millions of islamic bombs that will go off at regular intervals in west? I would say UK will be more vulnerable than USA.

Typical

 

[Subgradewalker]

Don't see it that way, different circumstances, different geographies. The nuke was used because a lunatic regime was rushing towards a nuclear bomb, not because of any other disagreement, and it was used only on sites associated with that nuclear proliferation and only because there was no other way of taking them out except a nuclear weapon.

Sure. Then nukes will be used to thwart the threat of lunatic nation that used N- weapons against a Non nuclear nation. Don't worry, only the sites related to "nuclear" be targeted.. wherever they are in the world. I heard some are placed in UK too. And it will be done only because US military is too strong conventionally to defeat except barrage of WMDs.

 

[FenicromovCW]

Nope. Fallout kills 15% of the non-fatal casualties. Still way less than the 30,000 murdered by the regime.

Major issue here will be that even if one country uses Nukes, it will lower the threshold for so many other nuke capable countries to do the same to sort their issues out, thus it will ultimately lead to more chaos world wide. So let the Frankenstein be sleeping, it will be best for all of us.

 

[Rajput Lion]

My personal thoughts are that Trump might not be as dumb as he looks and sounds and probably knew the straight of Hormuz would be shut down by Iran, and if Iran does it long enough it will force Europe to support a ground invasion of Iran. So whilst it's a clever ploy from the Iranian regime in the short-term, it could get real dumb in the long-term.

Let's see!

I personally don't know why they don't just drop a B83 on Natanz and Pick Axe Mountain sites and call it job done. It'll only kill 800 people (most of them nuclear scientists and technicians plus IRGC security staff) and the regime has already murdered 30,000 civilians this year, so it's negligible by comparison.

USS Boxer The Second Amphibious Assault Ship Now Heading To Middle East (Updated)

With two Amphibious Ready Groups heading to the Middle East, there is increasing speculation that the U.S. will try to seize Iran's strategic Kharg Island.

www.twz.com

Does this same logic apply to Russia dropping tactical nukes on key Ukrainian military installations? Anyways, if Uncle Sam dares to drop any type of nuke, even if yield of sub 1 kiloton, it'll start a chain reaction of events which even they may not follow. There is a reason why Russia hasn't done that in Ukraine and America must refrain too.

 

[_Anonymous_]

If they already attacking our cities like Delhi, than they will also be attacking our energy infra, escalation will have reached way beyond if they are willing to attack delhi.

They won't start with Delhi obviously but smaller centres upto 50-100 kms from the LAC. As the situation on the LAC becomes unfavorable to them they'd be TEMPTED to go in for the measures I've described.

You won't find them doing so if you've enough missiles pointing at similar population & industrial centers on their eastern & southern coastlines including their energy infrastructure.

Bottomline - where's our conventional deterrence ?

And balance of terror can be dynamic, you don't need them to target same thing for you to target same thing on their side.

So what are the other targets you've in mind & where are they located ?

Like china considers attack on Three Gorges Dam equivalent to a nuclear attack and will retaliate with nukes.

Right now how about listing what're our red lines like how China's laid it out for the 3 Gorges Dam ? And while you're at it please analyse why do you think we'd attack the 3 Gorges Dam if that's what you think ? Alternatively why do you think China'd be deterred by our red lines as far as usage of N Weapons go ?

 

[babablacksheep]

They won't start with Delhi obviously but smaller centres upto 50-100 kms from the LAC. As the situation on the LAC becomes unfavorable to them they'd be TEMPTED to go in for the measures I've described.

Tempted to what extent? Attacking which areas?

If its about attacking deeper into our industrial hubs or delhi/near delhi Then We will be tempted to retaliate by targeting their latest green energy infra, even if the cost is targeting of our own energy infra by China, as without energy supply chinese industries will also slow down even without us targeting them explicitly.

That's detterance.

You won't find them doing so if you've enough missiles pointing at similar population & industrial centers on their eastern & southern coastlines including their energy infrastructure.

We are working them.
Bm-04 for example in development have max range of 1500km with conical-winged HGV warhead.

Launched from assam and it can target Kunming, Yunnan, Chengdu, Sichuan,Chongqing etc their industres, grids etc.

But that's for future.

So what are the other targets you've in mind & where are they located ?

Desert-Based Megaprojects: Under the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), China has initiated a vast expansion of wind and solar capacity in desert regions, often referred to as the "Green Great Wall" of renewable energy. The first batch of these projects, which includes about 100 GW of capacity in deserts like the Gobi, was largely in operation by the end of 2024.


Xinjiang Solar/Wind Power Bases: Xinjiang is a primary hub, with its "new energy" capacity exceeding 100 million kilowatts by 2024. Large-scale projects, including a 3.5 GW solar farm in the Taklamakan Desert, are active, with 2024 seeing a 30% increase in new energy generation.


Qinghai-Gansu Renewable Energy Hubs: These provinces are seeing a rapid rise in new energy, with over 50% of their installed capacity now coming from renewables, with Gansu adding 12 million kilowatts of new capacity in 2024.

Hainan Solar Park (Qinghai): A 2.2 GW facility that is part of a larger 1 GW project with integrated storage located at altitudes above 3,000 meter.


Talatan Solar Park (Qinghai/Tibet Border): Located on the Tibetan Plateau, this is one of the world's largest solar projects with a capacity of nearly 17,000 MW. While Qinghai is slightly further inland, the infrastructure extends deep into the high-altitude regions bordering India.

Etc.

And in future more and more of China's energy supply will come from north-western provinces.

Right now how about listing what're our red lines like how China's laid it out for the 3 Gorges Dam ?

Energy generation,
power grids, civilian infra, civilian industrial sites etc.

And while you're at it please analyse why do you think we'd attack the 3 Gorges Dam if that's what you think ?

I don't, that was just an example of dynamics detterance, a conventional attack on non-nuclear site causing a nuclear responsive from china, because of dynamic equivalence of its importance.

You don't need to target same thing of opposite party in retaliation, you can target something that is within your reach and dynamically is of equivalent importance.

Alternatively why do you think China'd be deterred by our red lines as far as usage of N Weapons go ?

Well, we have our own nukes.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Tempted to what extent? Attacking which areas?

For that we've to go back to first principles. Xi & his small coterie which is getting smaller by the day are the sole decision makers in China.

That makes a lot of people unhappy , fearful , apprehensive , dissatisfied etc . What that means is decisions which work out will be credited to Xi's genius & those that don't could see him & his coterie in trouble depending on the nature of those decisions , it's effects , it's implications on China & so on .

In other words Xi can't afford to lose . A stalemate on the LAC will be seen as a defeat or can be portrayed as such. That makes Xi's position desperate & the pressure generated will be transmitted down the ranks .

This'd result in upping the ante . Now what shape will it take & how severe the implications for us can't be completely predicted but the surest way to break morale is to target specific areas in the hinterland which support the war efforts.

That's where industries infrastructure population centers etc come into play for we don't have what it takes to conventionally deter the Chinese. That's my diagnosis.

If you're truly interested there's the whole thread on Indo Chinese war games where these issues & much more have been discussed threadbare over the past few years . Feel free to check on it .

If its about attacking deeper into our industrial hubs or delhi/near delhi Then We will be tempted to retaliate by targeting their latest green energy infra, even if the cost is targeting of our own energy infra by China, as without energy supply chinese industries will also slow down even without us targeting them explicitly.

That's detterance.

Depends on how much China's dependent on those energy infrastructure . China's already a power surplus country.Those renewable energy infrastructure have been set up to replace thermal power plants run on coal essentially . One of the first things China'd do if it's going in for a war is to stop replacement & build up redundancy. Set up renewable energy infrastructure & keep running those coal fired plants instead of shutting them down.

We are working them.
Bm-04 for example in development have max range of 1500km with conical-winged HGV warhead.

Yeah well my target for an Indo Chinese war is 2030 give or take a year. Do you see these missiles coming in huge qtys by then . If not they don't matter . We ought to focus on what we have as opposed to what the future will bring.

Launched from assam and it can target Kunming, Yunnan, Chengdu, Sichuan,Chongqing etc their industres, grids etc.

But that's for future.

We can do that with the Agni series as well & the Shaurya . All we've to do is modify our own self imposed restrictions on usage of these missiles as items of strategic value. After all China's planning to use IRBMs with both conventional & N warheads.

Desert-Based Megaprojects: Under the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), China has initiated a vast expansion of wind and solar capacity in desert regions, often referred to as the "Green Great Wall" of renewable energy. The first batch of these projects, which includes about 100 GW of capacity in deserts like the Gobi, was largely in operation by the end of 2024.


Xinjiang Solar/Wind Power Bases: Xinjiang is a primary hub, with its "new energy" capacity exceeding 100 million kilowatts by 2024. Large-scale projects, including a 3.5 GW solar farm in the Taklamakan Desert, are active, with 2024 seeing a 30% increase in new energy generation.


Qinghai-Gansu Renewable Energy Hubs: These provinces are seeing a rapid rise in new energy, with over 50% of their installed capacity now coming from renewables, with Gansu adding 12 million kilowatts of new capacity in 2024.

Hainan Solar Park (Qinghai): A 2.2 GW facility that is part of a larger 1 GW project with integrated storage located at altitudes above 3,000 meter.


Talatan Solar Park (Qinghai/Tibet Border): Located on the Tibetan Plateau, this is one of the world's largest solar projects with a capacity of nearly 17,000 MW. While Qinghai is slightly further inland, the infrastructure extends deep into the high-altitude regions bordering India.

Etc.

And in future more and more of China's energy supply will come from north-western provinces.

Answered this one above.

Energy generation,
power grids, civilian infra, civilian industrial sites etc.

As of now we're maintaining our stance of NFU . Exceptions could be targeting population centers though even that part isn't clarified. The fact of the matter is neither China nor India sees a war with each other cross the N threshold which is the reason our policies are mostly Paxtan centric.

This approach suits China obviously not us & we're not doing anything to remedy it either in the strategic dimension or otherwise.

I don't, that was just an example of dynamics detterance, a conventional attack on non-nuclear site causing a nuclear responsive from china, because of dynamic equivalence of its importance.

That's China's red lines. As I've explained we've still not formulated what our red lines are going to be vis a vis China.

You don't need to target same thing of opposite party in retaliation, you can target something that is within your reach and dynamically is of equivalent importance.

We're going around in ever decreasing circles very fast . The IAF isn't primed to take on the PLAAF. I've just explained why your theory of targetting their energy infrastructure is a non starter.

Our BM & CM program in the shape you want it to be in is in the future. We're not compensating for it the way I've explained it to you .

Their population centers & industrial ecosystems are mostly to their south & East where our reach with what we have is extremely limited.

Well, we have our own nukes.

Answered this above.

 

[randomradio]

Many of their core military production sites are well within reach as randomradio said especially their J20 production site at Chengdu which we can destroy even with our current capabilities in time of war. Shenyang is indeed far away near Manchuria iirc so that will be difficult to destroy. Hainan is somewhat within our reach as well as is their southern region which is reachable via LRLACM launched from Northeast and the 1,500 km conventional hypersonic ballistic missile DRDO is working on. With that range Chengdu, Kunming, Chongqing will be within reach, major population centers too.

Btw you said Delhis 400 km away which means they can use their MLRS to launch attacks but if we destroy that they can't use MLRS, they will have to fire 1,500 to 2,000 km away like we will have to and they do have missiles in those ranges in numbers of hundreds but not thousands iirc, bulk of their missiles are 500 to 1,000 km AFAIK.

You've got to realize designing and testing such missiles take time and money which GOI has now embarked upon. You can't just will missiles into existence bud. It will take some time before BM04 and LRLACM are ready for production in numbers. Else we can't just randomly produce huge numbers of unproven tech like @marich01 once pointed out.

A lot of their production is already within range of fighters carrying CMs, like SCALP and Brahmos.

Dunno why there's this intense focus on long range missiles to hit production just to halt it for a few years, which is of little military value to India.

Attacking energy and production only makes sense if the goal is to consistently degrade a nation with the aim of conquering it eventually or helping somone else take over, a regime change. If all we are gonna do is fight a single war for a short time, production becomes irrelevant.

Our goal in Tibet will be to isolate the PLA on the plateau, so we need to hit logistics, comms, and HQs, alongside bases, assembly areas, and weapons/fuel depots. So the bulk of our focus will be within a 500 km range.

The Chinese are in the same boat. They will want to finish things quickly, so there's no point in escalating things by hitting India's energy and production.

Long war changes things, but it depends on how long this long war is. Russia started hitting Ukraine's civil energy infra almost 8 months after it began. Even with the goal of demilitarization, they took 9 months before they started hitting Ukraine's military production. Basically, when they realized it was going to be a very long war of attrition lasting many years.

So both China and India will hit each other's civilian, dual-use, and military production only if the war is expected to last many years. A short war, less than a year, will stay at the border.

 

[randomradio]

Once again to all the Yankee supporters(F-35 fans)of our forum and in general: "It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal"

Trump threatening Europe with an invasion.

 

[randomradio]

I personally don't know why they don't just drop a B83 on Natanz and Pick Axe Mountain sites and call it job done.

'Cause this war has nothing to do with nukes. The same as how Iraq War had nothing to do with WMDs.

Get with the program.

 

[jetray]

US to bomb iran's power plants, so now its a competition between iran & afghanistan for worst medieval age countries.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035516932498030879

 

[randomradio]

US to bomb iran's power plants, so now its a competition between iran & afghanistan for worst medieval age countries.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035516932498030879

It could push the Iranians to take to the streets again.

Comes at the risk of GCC facing the music, in turn the rest of the world.

 

[Shan]

Why military grade equipment and the paper stack behind them is "sometimes" important. There are few reports that cover such instances. However, the failure of such DIY mods is quite high. The coverage of such incidents is quite less even during days of conflict.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035552994222035429

 

[Shan]

UK foreign secretary condemns Iran’s ‘reckless threats’ after strike towards US-UK base

Yvette Cooper says government wants swift resolution to war after two missiles directed at military base at Diego Garcia

www.theguardian.com

The foreign secretary has condemned Iran’s strikes on a joint US-UK military base on the island of Diego Garcia, while stressing the UK has “taken a different position from the US and Israel” on the conflict.

Yvette Cooper said ministers wanted to see a swift resolution to the war, adding the government was supporting defensive action against the “reckless Iranian threats”.


Iran fired the missiles after warning that British lives were “in danger” after the prime minister authorised the US to carry out further strikes from British bases.

Tehran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at the Chagos island but neither hit, the Iranian news agency Mehr reported.

One of the missiles was shot down by a US warship, while the other failed in flight, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing multiple officials.

If the salvo had reached its target it would have been the longest-range Iranian strike yet. Before the war, according to the US Congressional Research Service, Washington was aware of Iranian missiles that could reach 3,000km.

Cooper told broadcasters on Saturday: “We have continued to support defensive action to support UK interests, including defensive action against ballistic missile threats.

“But we want to see as swift as possible a resolution to this conflict. Our approach to this conflict has been the same throughout.

“We were not and continue not to be involved in offensive action, and we’ve taken a different view from the US and Israel on this.

“But we are supporting defensive action to support our interests. That includes recognising Iran’s escalating threats to international shipping, as well as their threats to our Gulf partners.”