The Regime will Fall Not by Bombing Mainland Iran , but by Physically Capturing KHARAG ISLAND , Iran's main export Terminal ,.the source of Oil Revenue
Seems quite fantastical.
The US will have to be absolutely sure that Iran cannot attack export terminals of other countries in revenge.
The USS Tripoli is steaming toward the theatre - this position was as of March 12, by now it's possibly crossed Malacca or close to it.
Not sure if a full Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) has already formed around it or will pick up ships as it goes.
Yea, seems risky as hell especially considering they haven't obtained air dominance all along Iran's southern coast yet. The ARG will be under constant threat of drone & missile attacks as they approach the island.
For this reason, some believe the MEU is a feint - the real assault on Kharg will be done by airborne elements like the 82nd or 101st. Those units have also been placed on alert recently:
But regardless of the unit, they'll be under immense threat of drone/missile bombardment, especially after they seize the place and Iran decides to go scorched earth on Kharg. "If we can't have it nobody can".
Aren't they already doing that? UAE's Fujairah & Oman's Salalah have both been attacked even before Kharg was targeted. In fact the first attack on Fujairah was on March 3, even before Israel targeted the oil facilities in mainland Iran.
I may be old & mature to him not to you . I'm sure you're around the same age as I am. I can step forward & step back , move diagonally forward & backwards & move two & a half steps in all directions apart from stooping to conquer. I'm sure this part was quite evident to you as well.I didn't laugh at your post to spite @batman , i just liked your way of writing. However I do think that, at least in public, you dislike stepping back irrespective of whether you're right or wrong, and being an old and mature guyI'm sure that you're quite aware of it.
Seems like the US & the Mullahs are playing the game of chicken. Mullahs won't mine the Straits of Hormuz , although they may be pretend to do so as they need it to export oil & import necessities once the war is over .
The US & Israel will also take out every bit of infrastructure Iran has except ones pertaining to the drilling if oil which is mostly in the Khuzestan region populated by Sunni Arabs who happen to be settled in Iran since generations.
Herein lies the dangerous symmetry being maintained since the last war was fought & the current one being waged . Iran won't target the O&NG infrastructure in the Gulf Sheikhdoms even if they continue bombing the periphery making threatening noises just like the US won't take out the oil producing infrastructure of Iran.
Even in Kharg Island the US struck at the defences of the island not the oil producing storage or distribution infrastructure .
If the US mounts an invasion whether sea or air based what're the Mullahs going to do ? Bomb Kharg Island to oblivion. Suits the US just fine .
One fine day the US will get up & leave & the Mullahs will be faced with near zero infrastructure , ever present sanctions , no oil coz they can't drill since they destroyed the infrastructure themselves & so on .
A counter revolution by the ordinary Iranians then is just a matter of time . We already have seen several trailers over the past decade including a sign of things to come in January when the bazaar traders in Tehran went on a strike & took on the Mullahs.
Traditionally this section is supposed to be the weather cock of Iranian politics . They were the ones whose support for the Mullahs , rioting on the streets & opposition to the Shah persuaded the latter to leave Iran in a self imposed exile .
They were also the ones who started the January protests which culminated in a massacre of all those who protested against tbe Mullahs a few months ago.
Long story short there's a real trust deficit between the Mullahs on the one side & Trump & the Israelis on the other. See these calibrated moves as putting pressure on the Mullahs to see reason & accept an unconditional CF.
However if the Mullahs don't show any inclination for one , then it's game on & there's no saying where this one will go .
Video of SCI owned "Shivalik" LPG tanker ship being escorted out of the Strait of Hormuz by 3 P-15B class destroyers & their MH-60R helos:

If the Iranians had one , this war wouldn't be waged.At this point, the Iranians might contemplate taking a leaf out of Pak N doctrine and detonating a crude nuke on their own territory to raise the stakes for invading Allied forces.
It's a deep water port from where oil pipelines from across the country are merged carrying oil to this island. The rest of the ports are shallow water ports unable to berth super tankers containing oil. Hence Kharg Island.Kharg may be an ideal candidate as it is isolated from the rest of the country.
Iran's leadership have options though they're extremely limited with each carrying heavy costs.Iran's leadership is out of options. Israel seems to be determined to bring about a regime change his time. For its part, Iran has already offered to give up N enrichment/weaponization efforts via Qatar. The Americans egged on by Israel didn't relent.