HQ19 we can handle. J35 is the very very serious threat, which will give IAF planners sleepless nights.
Pakistan AirForce : Updates & Discussions
- Thread starter Ashwin
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The primary goal for the Indian state for the next 10 years should be to, by hook or by crook, foil Pakistani attempts to kill our civilians by using covert means and robust intelligence gathering and also acting on that intelligence. Instead of "waiting" for the next terrorist attack and then throwing some missiles at Pakistan, we need to foil such attacks all together. And we need to do so while building up our military and economic capabilities. Else, if we do again a 4 day war against a J35 equipped Pakistan, I am not sure what we will achieve, our casualties will be much higher in the air and we don't yet have the mass of ballistic missiles and subsonic cruise missiles needed to absolutely destroy all of their airbases from long range.
IAF should be worried about J35 because we are going to lose pilots due to it.We're not just dependent on Russia and S-400 to hunt down VLO targets. Read my posts in the India vs China thread. There I have talked in length regarding how IAF plans to take down PLAAF VLO jets like J-20. DRDO is developing a whole "anti-stealth" grid for IAF which shall consist of our Passive Coherent Location Radar(PCLR), UHF, VHF, S-Band and X-Band radars all fused together through an AI-backed software algorithm which will detect and track a pure stealth shaped enemy plane like say a Flying Wing shaped bomber from 300-400kms away.
Rest assured that IAF is not too worried about J-35A. But a beggar nation like Pak which is surviving through begging bowl and alms having 5th gen fighter before world's 4th largest and powerful AF is a problem of a different kind, lol
This would require greater investments in HUMINT via infiltrating Pak mil jihadi nexus in addition to tech int efforts by NTRO/RAW/DIA.
In this regard, we have a lot to learn from Israei covert ops in Iran. They not only managed to penetrate the top Iranian mil heirarchy but also broke into Khamenei's inner circle.
Tbh, RAW has achieved several success too. For ex, penetrating research institutions like KRL and obtaining conclusive evidence of Pak N enrichment/ weaponization back in the 70s-80s.
However, this network has unfortunately been compromised several times in the past by traitors like former PM IK Gujral and the infamous VP Hamid Ansari.
Things have certainly changed since then. However, more needs to be done to fill the gaps, imo.
HUMINT investments will also pay off in terms of sourcing classified data on high end Chinese and Turkish mil gear being acquired by Pak. J-35, HQ-19, Hangor ssk, the long rumoured ICBM prog, et all.
If IAF wasn't worried about Chinese rapidly inducting J-20s and even actively deploying it 5:1 against our Rafales post Galwan, then do you really think that they would fret too much regarding PAF getting J-35s?
Reality is, we were in deep trouble when we pulled out of FGFA programme. That was our ONLY saving grace against Chinese VLO threat and our only chance of drawing parity. IAF bet too much on Rafale and what happened? Despite all the hype about its "active cancellation", it was fully tracked and attacked by PAF's J-10CE with PL-15s. And we even lost one Rafale. This is where IAF realized that, Rafale just can't be our tip of the spear like they hoped for and from last year's June, they are looking to procure Su-57s as a saving grace and our PLAAF/PAF VLO counter.
J-35AE, with 4 PL-15s housed in its IWB, would most definitely be a more serious threat than J-10CE doing the same as it will be able to fire PL-15s within its NEZ jeopardising our fighters even more. It even has got its own EOTS, which can hunt for our S-400 batteries and mobile TELs like F-35.
Good thing is our investment in "anti-stealth" tech. For now, that is our only saving grace.
That'll be ~$8 bn or as much as their entire defence budget, bought on loans from china itself.
Pentagon report already confirmed PAF's J-35AE acquisition of around 40 jets sometime back. China hopes to refine its weapons by using Pak as a live laboratory along with keeping India in check and pressure from both sides. They may even give J-35s for free to Pak, such is their hatred for us.
The Threat from China is not just direct but also Indirect
For example , If China wants it can easily give 20 Billion dollars worth of Hardware, to BOTH , Pakistan and Bangladesh for free , to raise formidable foes for India
That is why it is necessary to maintain good Relationship with USA
They can't afford that many, and if they did buy it, it is only going to screw them further economically. At the end all these toys are just one missile crashlanding away on their hangars from becoming roast bacon.
Nobody is going to give that for free lmao, they sold J-10C @4.15% interest rate to the pakees. To think a deal 5x bigger than that would be given for free is delusional. Their weird obsession with fancy fighter jets would be the gravestone for their entire military, that simply will have nothing left to modernise their crap. Even within their air force they have got 200+ fighter jets to replace, can they? Leave other assets like refuellers or transporters, and even leave other assets across the rest of their military like helicopters, tanks etc that are now gathering dust.
No doubt having a good relationship with USA is vital for our growth plus to keep Chinese dragon in check. That is why GOI is trading very carefully as far as geo-politics is concerned.
Not only 40 J-35s, they also are procuring Z-10 attack helos and more J-10CEs. They don't want India to gain total superiority against them with IAF having 150 Rafales armed with Meteors and having 10 squadrons of S-400.
They are the same nation which wanted to eat grass, yet possess nukes(this analogy is becoming true with time, lol).
It's true that, there is price for everything. But when I said "for free", I was not being literal rather emphasizing on Chinese hatred for us. Of course, they would try to get their investment back through their multiple projects in Pak.
JF-17 is their replacement of all their analogue jets.
Again, how many Z-10MEs they bought? They operated 50x of the AH-1s, but could they manage to replace all of them? No. Same would be the case with their military as a whole, forced to operate outdated junk due to lack of funds.
For one, the IAF wasn't expecting the PAF to have the full spec PL-15 in their arsenal. The Spectra suite likely wasn't tuned to its signature. Imo, this was more of an intelligence failure on our part. This is another reason SBS-3 must be prioritized (particularly EMISAT follow-ons + the new triplet config sats) besides AMTI/GMTI payloads. Theoretically, Dignatara should be able to adapt its SCOT sats for air surveillance with minor modifications.
Frankly, I doubt the FGFA would've fared any better under the circumstances, even if it had been inducted. The Russians were anyway driving a hard bargain on it. Iirc, the basic design was all but frozen and they were not willing to part with the source code or address the IAFs concerns wrt performance. Imo, they are more reasonable now only because their defence exports have dried up and India is their only hope for revival.
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This is true, but I wasn't saying that SPECTRA failed. 'Cause it didn't. It did a stellar work otherwise much more attrition could have been caused to our Rafale fleet.
My point was that "Active Cancellation" couldn't reduce Rafale's RCS to that of a sparrow(-20dbSM or below) and PAF was able to track it along with firing from 200kms away!
There is no way PAF would have got firing solution on it from 200kms away. Just not possible.
Of course there were disputes regarding work-share, single seat vs dual seat, IP etc., but despite all of this, we should never have dropped out of the program. Russians have got around 40 Su-57S till date, had we remained in the programme, we could have got 50-60 jets till now too.
Chinese started to induct J-20s in active service from 2017 and what was our response? Rafale is good enough to take on J-20 and we don't need Su-57? So let's leave the program in 2018 hoping that AMCA would be ready till 2030 and Rafale will outmatch the PLAAF.
Now if we are looking to rejoin the programme in 2026, what does it make us look like?
So the theory is the IAF planned missions assuming PAF PL-15 had less range ? that would be a very interesting way to run an air force
....Reuters quoting anonymous sources is not proof of intelligence failure ....thats just a propaganda story & most of peoples are falling for it .
If a jet actually went down , i would put my money on a SAM. but the pl-15 narrative sells like hotcakes..... who knows IAF briefing might shake things up
.What you're referring to is *head-on* rcs (best case performance in controlled conditions if I might add). No way a 4.5G ac with underwing stores could possibly be so stealthy, esp when egressing.
...Unless speculations regarding space based tracking were true.
The Gorshkov experience taught us the hard way never to take Russian assurances at face value.
The RuAF itself ordered the Su-57 only in 2019. We'd have likely taken longer considering our spec was higher.
By the time deliveries would've started, the Russians would've gone into Ukraine. For contrast, India ordered 5 S-400s in 2018 and is yet to receive 2 systems till date.
Granted nobody could've predicted the current situation. But it is best to cut your losses (substantial at $300m) amd walk away while you still can rather than blow a couple of billion more.
So the theory is the IAF planned missions assuming PAF PL-15 had less range ? that would be a very interesting way to run an air force
Publicly available Chinese brochures/info boards put the range of the export PL-15E at 145km while the domestic PL-15 version is widely reported as 200km+.
Some reports even say the weapon has a 300km range which is MTCR territory.
That was our point of contention with some of the members here. But now we know that Rafale is very prominent on radar with weapons and standard 2 EFTs.
And Su-30MKI, BrahMos model taught us that whenever Indian brain shapes up the Russian might, end result is absolutely game-changing like the above two.
India leaving the program delayed their induction too.
Yes, but even those 3 systems proved absolutely game-changing in last year's conflict.
Walking away from FGFA was our biggest mistake which thankfully both GOI & IAF have realised. Now, we may very well rejoin the FGFA aka 2-seat Su-57M2 program.
Fact is, in last year's conflict with Pak, Su-30MKI, BrahMos-A and S-400 came out as the biggest game-changers. Had we got FGFA, our attrition rate would have been much lower and it could have destroyed multiple PAF fighters without them even sniffing it.
Frankly, it is bizarre that Rafale will not be optimized for SEAD/DEAD until the F5 model. A dedicated stand-off jamming pod like the Saab Arexis on German EF2000s would've been very handy.
The IAF simply didn't want to commit resources to a WIP design. Can't blame them for that. The Russians were essentially treating as a junior partner while expecting us to pick up 50% of the tab.
Sounds eerily similar to the IAFs Rafale pitch in the aftermath of Balakot. However, ISE kit was not fully installed until 2023 as per reports.
Similarly, buying a small number of vanilla Su-57s (the current RuAF production version) off the shelf without the MKI kit would've done us no good.
The J-35 isn't a threat due to its isolation. PAF needs to rebuild their radars, SAMs, EW systems, surveillance, and have them all integrated before it can become one.
Plus the PAF is yet to find an answer to deal with long range SAMs like the S-400 and the IAF's long range fires. They won't find that answer in the J-35 at the very least.
In the meantime, the IAF has already deployed new anti-stealth surveillance systems in large numbers under the Sudarshan Chakra program while also exloring import options to make up for Gandiva's delays. R-37M (350 km, AWACS killer) and Israel's Sky Sting (PL-16 competitor) are stopgap options. Sky Sting's range is far more than the advertised 250 km.
Plus the PAF is yet to find an answer to deal with long range SAMs like the S-400 and the IAF's long range fires. They won't find that answer in the J-35 at the very least.
In the meantime, the IAF has already deployed new anti-stealth surveillance systems in large numbers under the Sudarshan Chakra program while also exloring import options to make up for Gandiva's delays. R-37M (350 km, AWACS killer) and Israel's Sky Sting (PL-16 competitor) are stopgap options. Sky Sting's range is far more than the advertised 250 km.
If the argument is that the IAF was surprised because they relied on public available brochures , thats laughable. Thats not how air forces operate & planning doesnt assume export specs .
Ofcourse IAF planned for 200 km + PL-15 ...they are not fools to consider it as 145 km export version.
Even assuming PL-15 max range , a hit 80 km inside indian airspace from a j-10c staying outside SAM range ? thats highly unrealistic.
I was pointing out that range figures for the full spec PL-15 are all over the place. As a rule of thumb, export sales mostly involve downgraded versions. So it is atleast a plausible theory, imo.
Besides the CDS has openly admitted that the IAF was taken by surprise on Day 1 of Op. Sindoor. For its part, the PAF has attributed all claimed kills to the PL-15, multiple expended rounds of which were recovered on our side of the border.
Afaik, no debris of HQ-9, LY-80 has been recovered. So, this would point to an A2A loss.
Besides, the PAF J-10Cs are believed to have used third-party cueing from the Erieye AEWCS to target IAF birds at standoff distances. This is another aspect that is speculated to have been the 'surprise'.