J-35 threat to Indian Air Force

[Subgradewalker]

The GoI/IAF will likely go for an emergency purchase of Su-57 only if the PAF signs up for J-35.

Right now, the PAF is looking to make up for its F-16/C-130 losses by playing on Trump's ego. Recent SM rumors about PAF losing 2 J-10CE in a mid-air collision could also be a cover for combat losses during Op Sindoor.

Considering the IAF is buying ~300 replacement S-400 rounds, we seem to have shot a shitload of these at PAF tayaaras.

Otherwise, it is a toss between Rafale and Su-57. I doubt GoI would consider funding two parallel fighter projects until things reach the tipping point.

The IAF, as usual, is fixated on the Rafale to the point of neglecting the upgrade of the only big stick in its fleet -the MKI.

As per a recent HT report, GoI has been lukewarm to Russian offers for Su-57 and other hardware during Putin's visit. This could be because the IAF has indicated a need to fill the medium mrca gap in its inventory (with Rafale, Mk2 and AMCA in the 30s and 40s)

Considering how the negotiations for 3 P75AS subs stalled over the steep cost, the GoIs insistence on 60% ToT+source code for Rafale is likely going to end up the same way.

With the LCA Mk1A and Mk2 programs crawling along, the outlook till 2030 isn't looking very bright for the IAF.

When is Pakistan supposed to recieve the upgraded F-16's? And how does our already developed and in production AD systems compare against them? Barring S-400.

I still believe that the networking of assets is much greater force multiplier than new platform not arriving anytime soon. People tend to forget that even Su-57E won't be arriving in near term. They are under development for all intent and purposes. And once it's fully developed, I have no doubt it will be a good FA cause of all the data gotten from war.

But, given the timeline, we can advance AMCA and it's engines and incorporate russian niche tech arising out of upgrades. That will be in the software domain. Tracking, identifying, threat perception etc. since Sensor fusion & networking is basic for upcoming generations of warfare.

In the meantime, developing varities of UAVs, BVR assets , AWACS, ISTAR etc and form not just current idea of kill chain. But IACCS V2.0 for offensive.
Maybe IACCS defense + IACCS offensive = Sudarshan Chakra. And it's a massive undertaking to integrate all smoothly and have an open architecture for future. But this is the foundation. The foundation which then become the backbone of any future FA. Not just 5th gen but 6th.

Lastly, this is very important for all of us, make note, that every technology that goes into defense platforms need their own R&D, Manufacturing ecosystem. Like semiconductors, quantum , AI, Advanced materials and alloys, from packaging, nuts and bolts to optical fibres, the display screen, SDRs etc. So, to see how a program is advancing, take system on system approach, break em down and look out for manufacturing sector activity in respective domain. This is the approach that was lacking which made DRDO no option but to embark on engine manufacturing in 1990's without basic testing facility in place.

Please don't look at headline items only. I am not aware about profession of people here, but if anyone has a voice in defense ecosystem.. they will also be able to actually participate in discourse and perhaps we a distant observer can have some +ve effect on wider discourse.

 

[Speedster1]

When is Pakistan supposed to recieve the upgraded F-16's? And how does our already developed and in production AD systems compare against them? Barring S-400.

The DSCA notification doesn't mention timelines, of course. But it is likely that atleast some of the F-16s swatted by IAF MRSAM/S-400s were B52 version known to carry AIDEWS SPJ pods which are quite modern. So the IACCS seems to have stepped up to the job.

I still believe that the networking of assets is much greater force multiplier than new platform not arriving anytime soon.

Since Op Sindoor, multiple IAF ac types have been seen with SDR/SATCOM antenna. So the ODL project seems to be finally gathering pace now. Plus the IAF has had a dedicated GSAT-7 comsat in orbit for a while. Their ground based air surveillance radars are also networked with civilian ATC and IN radars. So the IAF seems to be well-placed on NCW.

People tend to forget that even Su-57E won't be arriving in near term. They are under development for all intent and purposes. And once it's fully developed, I have no doubt it will be a good FA cause of all the data gotten from war.

But the lack of a Plan B on everything from F-404/F-414 to the Rafale is throttling the IAFs fleet sustainment/expansion plans.

From the antique Jaguar to the MiG-29, we need to replace roughly a 1/3rd of the combat line up by 2035. Thankfully, we build both the RR Adour and the RD-33 under license. Combined with MRO capabilities of 9 BRD and HAL, we can probably keep them going till 2040. But that would be pushing it.

It is absolutely asinine that MoD/IAF did not stock up on 100s of F404s in the years gone by. That's the least they could've done after the bitter experience of post Pokhran sanctions.

But, given the timeline, we can advance AMCA and it's engines and incorporate russian niche tech arising out of upgrades.

The MKI fleet should be prioritsed for upgrades over any purchase of Su-57. We must go all out in terms of EW (HBJ+ MAWS +towed decoy) and avionics (MC+DMG+ displays) while the sensor fit (radar, IRST) complete development. (Litening 4i LDP reportedly has hi-resolution A2A modes)

I don't know what tech Russia's offering for MKI UPG but I suspect it'd be Su-30SM2/Su-35S tech. Nothing exotic like Su-57 derived radar, ew, etc. That would push the cost up by a lot.

In the meantime, developing varities of UAVs, BVR assets , AWACS, ISTAR etc and form not just current idea of kill chain.

All these progs are years away from completion. We'll be lucky to get the SBS-3 ISR constellation up by 2030. Since we have reportedly rejected the Russian offer for Geran drones, I suspect local progs like Newspace Sheshnag are shaping up well.

Maybe IACCS defense + IACCS offensive = Sudarshan Chakra. And it's a massive undertaking to integrate all smoothly and have an open architecture for future.

10 year timeline, iirc. A good start would be IADWS (QRSAM+ VSHORADS) for NCR. This endless cycle of testing, RfPs and price quotes is mind-boggling.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

We have only One Realistic and Practical Solution for All Threats -- Missiles and More Missiles

Fighter programmes cannot be speeded up , they will take their Time

When Enemy radars are destroyed and Airbases disabled ,.then they can do nothing
 
Also S 400 and Kusha can disrupt Enemy fighter operations

 

[GuardianRED]

We have only One Realistic and Practical Solution for All Threats -- Missiles and More Missiles

Fighter programmes cannot be speeded up , they will take their Time

When Enemy radars are destroyed and Airbases disabled ,.then they can do nothing
 
Also S 400 and Kusha can disrupt Enemy fighter operations

Yes correct ! The though process is that the J35/J10 (or the supposed Eurofight that BAF is getting) is going to turn the tide and squeeze the IAF. People forget that Wars are mulit dimension. To counter the new frames coming - your Surveillance/Intelligence comes in. Know the locations / support structure / patterns - target those first ! - utter destruction - no pot shots

 

[Subgradewalker]

The DSCA notification doesn't mention timelines, of course. But it is likely that atleast some of the F-16s swatted by IAF MRSAM/S-400s were B52 version known to carry AIDEWS SPJ pods which are quite modern. So the IACCS seems to have stepped up to the job.


Since Op Sindoor, multiple IAF ac types have been seen with SDR/SATCOM antenna. So the ODL project seems to be finally gathering pace now. Plus the IAF has had a dedicated GSAT-7 comsat in orbit for a while. Their ground based air surveillance radars are also networked with civilian ATC and IN radars. So the IAF seems to be well-placed on NCW.


But the lack of a Plan B on everything from F-404/F-414 to the Rafale is throttling the IAFs fleet sustainment/expansion plans.

From the antique Jaguar to the MiG-29, we need to replace roughly a 1/3rd of the combat line up by 2035. Thankfully, we build both the RR Adour and the RD-33 under license. Combined with MRO capabilities of 9 BRD and HAL, we can probably keep them going till 2040. But that would be pushing it.

It is absolutely asinine that MoD/IAF did not stock up on 100s of F404s in the years gone by. That's the least they could've done after the bitter experience of post Pokhran sanctions.


The MKI fleet should be prioritsed for upgrades over any purchase of Su-57. We must go all out in terms of EW (HBJ+ MAWS +towed decoy) and avionics (MC+DMG+ displays) while the sensor fit (radar, IRST) complete development. (Litening 4i LDP reportedly has hi-resolution A2A modes)

I don't know what tech Russia's offering for MKI UPG but I suspect it'd be Su-30SM2/Su-35S tech. Nothing exotic like Su-57 derived radar, ew, etc. That would push the cost up by a lot.


All these progs are years away from completion. We'll be lucky to get the SBS-3 ISR constellation up by 2030. Since we have reportedly rejected the Russian offer for Geran drones, I suspect local progs like Newspace Sheshnag are shaping up well.


10 year timeline, iirc. A good start would be IADWS (QRSAM+ VSHORADS) for NCR. This endless cycle of testing, RfPs and price quotes is mind-boggling.

1. SDR, ATC and radars are building blocks and it's good to hear the work is progressing. ISTAR will be the backbone of such. Unlike kill chain, which as name says, is a chain.. NCW will be like a web. Redundancy and consistency will be the name of the game. HALE/MALE everything. Looking forward to that. I heard DRDO developed secure link to standardised naval and land communication too.


2. Yes lack of Plan B is hurting. But the solution is not a rushed procurement as "stopgap". Solution must be a Plan C which covers the ground in other key areas, minimise the vulnerability and close loopholes. While Plan B/A materialises. Our forces and our war strategy isn't a one trick pony to only work if we have "5th Gen". Imagine Iran armed forces giving reason of absence of a 5th gen for their vulnerability to Israel. But that's not the reason. Even if they had two squads of Su-57, they would've remained grounded or not worth the cost.

3. Agree with you. MKI upgrades are much feasible and necessity, given they form the backbone of IAF. BVR warfare is only advancing.. time for IAF/DRDO(babus) to be innovative rather than . Chalta hai, import kar lenge. And hope MoD doesn't boggle up which is well.. hope.

We have only One Realistic and Practical Solution for All Threats -- Missiles and More Missiles

Fighter programmes cannot be speeded up , they will take their Time

When Enemy radars are destroyed and Airbases disabled ,.then they can do nothing
 
Also S 400 and Kusha can disrupt Enemy fighter operations

Yes!! Seems like a realistic interim solution, ramping our missiles production is way to go. And a good mix of them. In numbers. Let's say a missile force reaching the quantity level of rocket force. Unlikely? Nope. If we put out head into it, it's doable and actually scary. Iran used 300-400? Missiles and after that was able to do something. But we don't need missiles to cover 1000km balisitic trajectory. Cruise missiles with drones acting as signal disruptor , and high speed ones distributed among them.

Not strategic assets or costly one like brahmos. They shall be for missions. Not bombarding. But we know, it's fantasy. I doubt missile production is going up anytime soon. Pvt players just.. need time to build the managerial and operational expertise to run such ecosystem. Even if govt has already issued the notification to allow pvt players in missile development and manufacturing.

 

[jmaxwell_]

While the IAF certainly isn't perfect, one must give credit to the amazing ground work some of the IAF visionaries have been doing since the mid 2000's to build up AFNET, ODL, SDR modernization etc. and IACCS.

But one day I hope to read what crucial role the Rafales played in Op Sindoor that couldn't have been filled by the M2000s, DarinIII upgraded Jaguars and the Su30 bomb trucks. And not to belittle the IAF, but the majority of ground and air kills came from the rocket force. Besides, with the precision of the Pinakas, you can even take out Rahim Khan with the Mk3s. And if India can still continue to keep Pechoras and L70s modern and lethal, imagine how much room is left with the Su30MKI upgrades.

 

[Speedster1]

SDR, ATC and radars are building blocks and it's good to hear the work is progressing. ISTAR will be the backbone of such. Unlike kill chain, which as name says, is a chain.. NCW will be like a web. Redundancy and consistency will be the name of the game. HALE/MALE everything. Looking forward to that. I heard DRDO developed secure link to standardised naval and land communication too.

Imo, the 1st priority is replenishing used PGMs/SAMs/AAMs. The IAF needs to skewer MBDA for failing to deliver/integrate Meteor when other countries like Brazil have started receiving theirs.

If GoI manages to cut the defence acquisition process to 2 years from the current 7, we can hope for accelerated deliveries of the other elements you have mentioned, barring R&D delays.

Yes lack of Plan B is hurting. But the solution is not a rushed procurement as "stopgap". Solution must be a Plan C which covers the ground in other key areas, minimise the vulnerability and close loopholes. While Plan B/A materialises. Our forces and our war strategy isn't a one trick pony to only work if we have "5th Gen". Imagine Iran armed forces giving reason of absence of a 5th gen for their vulnerability to Israel. But that's not the reason. Even if they had two squads of Su-57, they would've remained grounded or not worth the cost.

As I've discussed in a previous post, Su-57 will likely be bought only if PAF signs for J-35. In any case, training pilots, setting up support infra and achieving IOC will take years even if Russia diverted deliveries meant for the RuAF to India.

By Plan B, I'm referring to the lack of movement on restarting the MKI assembly line and ordering the long-delayed 12 airframes. GoI needs to leverage commercial airliner engine orders (specifically LEAP engines for new B737s on order for AI etc) to force GE to expedite F-404 deliveries.

The GoI must demand guarantees/leverage market access that the Americans want for adequate support for in-service US military hardware as part of trade deal negotiations between the two countries. Ghee seedhi ungli se nahi niklega to...

 

[batman]

I am extremely glad people who are in the armed forces & in decision making capacity are nowhere near as doom mentality like yours. I will not reply anymore on this topic to you. Please keep on with your rhetoric. At least I have tools to never see those again.

whatever helps you.

 

[Harpy1]

J-35 with an internally carried PL-15 is a substantial threat.

Employed from their Rmax, it's likely that PL-15's Ph/Pk won't be anything to write home about, but the J-35 will allow them to close the distance considerably, which places a lot of our assets at risk (including AEWs). Fighters may also face increased attrition, which given our limited numbers of 4.5G airframes (many of which have to be held in reserve to address the LAC) we can ill-afford.

So yes, we'll face some restrictions in the freedom we have to employ airpower. Some space will have to be ceded to the PAF, especially in the opening stages of a conflict. Our AEWs will also have to fly further back than otherwise, which lets the PAF enjoy more strategic depth at least in some domains.

As we increase the number of AESA-equipped fighters with SPJs (preferably externally-carried ELL-8222/Scorpius as they seem to have considerably more success in spoofing incoming attacks than internally-carried SPECTRA), we'll start being able to impose our CAPs more effectively. But this is going to take several years of time to build up given all the delays, not to mention it will still require us to take the conflict deep.

In order to negate the look-first/shoot-first advantage that J-35 will give PAF from Day 1 itself, we're gonna need stealthy aircraft of our own. We already have AMCA in the pipeline which should be able to address both J-35 & PLAAF's J-20, but it's a long ways off. It won't be fully operational before 2040 even if we stick to the timeline without any delays.

All other ways of countering stealth aircraft will have us being forced to take the conflict deep, which brings with it mounting international pressure (besides our own peaceniks pressing for ceasefire) as well as opening the doors to all kinds of unintended consequences, while Pakistan would have already racked up several early 'victories'. Basically, we won't come out of that conflict looking good unless we take it deep enough that our advantages come into play. But do we have the wherewithal to keep the conflict going, knowing full well that this is exactly what China wants to bog us down into? That's the question.

The PAF acquisitions are perfectly gamed in concert with China to exploit these geopolitical realities.

And as things stand, this reality will remain for the next 15 years minimum (or till whenever we obtain AMCA in operational form). That's a lot of time for the China-Pak combine to press their advantage in an effort to reshape the dynamics in the neighbourhood with a series of limited conflicts.

This is why I had said for a long time (since much before Op. Sindoor) that we need to obtain a 5th gen aircraft through a G2G deal ASAP, to serve as a stop-gap before AMCA can come in. But if we are unable to obtain it due to any reason, then we're gonna have to reshape our doctrine & thinking entirely - from one geared for responsive, defensive warfare to one that's geared for an offensive, pre-emptive one.

Basically, we need to be the one to initiate the conventional hostilities in an effort to take out as many assets & force-multipliers of the enemy as possible pre-emptively. But unless we actually carry out a false-flag (which is gonna be extremely messy & will have far-reaching domestic & international political consequences if exposed), we're not gonna have a good enough casus belli to initiate large-scale preemptive action.

Additionally, pre-emptive action will also bring risks of its own. Including of a political nature via UNSC which both China & US might want to push, each for their own reasons. Even if vetoed by Russia/France, political consequences of a bilateral nature cannot be stopped. Not to mention, our political class (or the one in any democratic country for that matter, with the possible exception of Israel) has virtually no risk appetite for such actions.

+++++++

Thus, all things considered, the Govt-to-Govt acquisition of a 5th gen fighter as a stop-gap is by far the most sensible option in order to at least cut down on the number of years our adversaries will enjoy their advantage, thereby closing many windows of opportunity for them.

Just my 2 paise.

Now the govt have virtually agreed to 114 Rafale F4.1 and F5 surely the 30/40 J35 are too few to be effective against what 175 Rafales 250 Mki and super Mki and over 100 Tejas mark one

 

[FalconSlayers]

So, It Were SAMs which took out our Fighter jets?

Yes, except Rafale rest were most likely with SAMs. There's videos available of HQ-9s being fired from Nur Khan airbase on 7th May night. Which is why most losses occurred over J&K.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1919846301887562119

https://twitter.com/x/status/1919874031609668035

https://twitter.com/x/status/1919863862632874010

 

[Sathya]

Now the govt have virtually agreed to 114 Rafale F4.1 and F5 surely the 30/40 J35 are too few to be effective against what 175 Rafales 250 Mki and super Mki and over 100 Tejas mark one

F4 standard, higher than 4.2 or 4.3 with ISE

I guess radar will also be upgraded by 2030.