Operation Sindoor: Aftermath
- Thread starter Defc0n
- Start date
URI:2016, we did surgical strike, and pak took 3 years to do another terror attack.
Pathankot:2019. Balakot strike made pak to sit idle for 6 years.
Pahalgham:2025, it will make pak to sit further long time, atkeast not in Munir's tenure.
Munir achieved if not over achieved his objective with Pehalgam....
He was considered to be a political engineer than a fauji by many ( mostly PTI folks) and that's when he took out his brahmastra.... Terror attack in India and make India respond.... He knew that he had a political leadership whom he control like his puppet.... He promoted himself by making that idiot Shahbaz call " quom ka Fakkar" in real and literal terms ... Now he has a rank which only 2 or 3 had in pak....
Now add our orange head to the equations, and an opportunity to make money for Munir.... He is all over trump... So no need for an attack on India at least in his tenure.....
But if the reports are to be believed there is a serious dissatisfaction among generals....You can fool the Pakistanis by repeating 6.0, but not with mil officers who knows the truth and also knows how they got banged in op sindoor.... Now the question is why did he got promoted himself ?
There is another statistics... He is the gen under which PA suffered second most casualities in its history just below yahya khan.....
So he won't attack now...
Matlab dono taraf ke pakistanio ka same hi rhetoric chal raha hai
.. humne kaha tha ceasefire mat karo.. aage koi attack hua to *
What about the Indian warning in the Sir creek? Seemed like something serious happened and the notam near the region looks like a “message” being sent to Pakistan.
These were the misses from Indian side due to lapses. Pakistan is trying everyday to hit.
We need to do it and send a message to trump & co, that we alone make our decisions not some idiot else where. Sooner we do it better, if not pakistan will get more equipment from else where and improve its defences.
Link to the video plz
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Let's not learn the wrong lessons from this. For next conflict we need mass and SAM canister depth. Lets prepare for that.
Yep. Just recently, they attempted to orchestrate a major terrorist attack in Punjab by sending RPGs and other munitions via drones. Fortunately, our security forces managed to foil the plot. I assume their intended target could have been a major religious site like the Harmandir Sahib or a strategic defence installation such as the Bathinda Airbase. Perhaps they might have been trying to execute something similar to the drone strikes carried out by Ukrainians on Russian airbases.
Same old stuff being repeated again. The tape is stuck and folks no longer know what to say anymore.
There was suddenly posturing, and there could be reasons behind that ....
But the current exercise shouldn't be linked to that
Hmm.. Interesting. I get the other exercises (central India etc) but the one near Sir Creek involving the Navy looks uncomfortably related to this. I could very well be wrong given I have no access to classified informations whatsoever, but, few things are making me think that there is more to the ex-Trishul that we see --
1. Recent oil and gas claims from US and Pakistan. Where would those be? Doesn't that make Sir Creek extremely important for us ?
2. In case of (1) - US interests there are really detrimental to our interests and we would most definitely want to preempt any attempt by Pak to create a soft-bed for US there.
3. What will be the direct fall out of this (2) in case if don't preempt ? A change in status-quo in Sir Creek (at least that's my reading of what is going on) which again will create problems for us as it impacts our Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) !
Add to this the rampant attempt to get India into a conflict with attacks (terror) in different parts of India - it almost looks like Pak has been given the green flag (by we know who) to engage India.
Now this "Peacekeeping force in Gaza" is something that I don't fully comprehend (I admit) and I am think this will impact Pak's plans a bit and change cause them to change their plans, but for this the CF needs to hold and this is not something I see holding for a period required for the Pak Peacekeepers to get there.
Lets see what transpires.
Officers in Pakistani intelligence have to cooperate by giving locations of all the launch pads in, KPK, Sindh, POK and Punjab and the names of those generals who are looking after them. Because if there is any lapse or miss on Indian side it will be war. In fact some generals in their establishment would want to cooperate with a positive attitude for peace, none of them want war, they have a job and their families too, but there are zia ul haq and asim munir types maulvis too who are crack and for their vested interest want to use their juniors. Asim Munir is ruining the lives of soldiers and many good officers in Pakistan military for his political goals which has nothing to do with sovereignity of Pakistan.
Fascinating how these were supposed to be minor damages as per fauji foundation call centre coolies, and yet here we have repairs still ongoing at multiple air bases.
The IB along Sir Creek runs along the middle. Paxtan claims it runs further east of the IB . What that does is it affects the possession of the EEZ by several hundreds if not thousands of square kilometres if that demand is upheld.
This has resulted in an impasse. See what Fauji Foundation is indulging in there as probing measures to test our responses. It could also be diversionary tactics.
As far as restarting Operation Sindoor goes , if you look at the internal situation in Paxtan it has more or less returned to the same state it was before they launched what they did in Pahalgam & if not that then the situation is far worse than what it used to be.
I recall seeing one of several programs in the aftermath of the Pahalgam incident before Operation Sindoor was launched wherein Vivek Katju stated that the attack on Jafar Express & the casualties suffered by Fauji Foundation was blamed on Indian Black Ops directly by Munir who threatened retaliation.
He was of the opinion that should've rung alarm bells within our establishment forcing extra precautions on our side to prevent incidents like what happened in Pahalgam.
Another reason could be the rapidly deteriorating internal security in Paxtan which prompted the outrage in Pahalgam. Let's not forget the same Munir was DG ISI when Pulwama was undertaken.
There was no immediate provocation for that incident except if you check for what was happening around the same time in Paxtan's internal politics. Gen Bajwa was the CoAS & favoured reconciliation with India which Khansama was opposed to .
Was Pulwama undertaken to sabotage these overtures ? Was Bajwa in the loop for what subsequently transpired in Pulwama ? We get an inkling from the fact that Munir was transferred from the ISI to GHQ having served as DG ISI for a record 8 months , the shortest tenure of a DG ISI.
Ostensibly on the face of it , the reasons which came out then was there was a fallout between Khansama & Munir which led to the transfer. Off the record who knows ?!
Eventually Khansama was ousted , the Sharif's brought back to power , Bajwa retired after an extension ( or was it 2 ) & Munir was sworn in with 3 days left for his retirement after due consultations between the Sharif bros.
The term was set for 3 years which is due to expire towards the end of this November . Munir manipulated events by extending the term of the CoAS to 5 years from 3 vide an act of parliament passed towards the end of 2024 which means he's due for retirement in November 2027 .
The man is riding a tiger . As the internal situation deteriorates along with the economy & external relations with all its neighbours he's going to come under increasing pressure to either do something about it or to quit by his peers / subordinates within Fauji Foundation .
He doesn't seem the kind to go quietly into the night like Bajwa. So the urge to scratch the itch called India is very high although he knows the terrible price Paxtan would've to pay but safeguards his position or so he calculates.
It's either that or a case of explosive mangos in a plane a la Kana. Doesn't seem much of a choice when you're determined to be in charge but lack the political acumen or sagacity to do so .
I'd rather we ease Munir's dilemma by using these exercises to stage an incident in Sir Creek or the high seas where both PN & IN are exercising intensively using it as a pretext to unleash hell on Paxtan by first initiating a de capitation strike like the IDF undertook against Hezbollah & later Iran putting Munira & the top brass of PAF , PA & PN out of their collective miseries .
Far fetched ? Not when you consider that they'd be receiving advanced weaponry in the near future like the 8 nos Yuan class submarines which will be inducted any time now & other such platforms from Turkey , China , some European nations even the US perhaps what with their latest defence pact with KSA who'd bankroll these purchases .
Then there's our tryst with China scheduled towards the end of the decade where if we don't want to be caught in a pincer between China & Paxtan we need to move now though personally speaking I'd rather we get into a 2 front war & focus completely on the eastern front.
Gives us a casus belli to deal with Paxtan once we sort out the Chinese later. Also gives us the opportunity to work out a final solution for even if the state of Paxtan ceases to exist , the idea of Paxtan will continue long after the state has died.
That's a far more dangerous scenario IMO for that region will be a hot bed of radicalism , lawlessness , falling agricultural & economic output etc . In other words a Myanmar ¹⁰ with a NWP .
The way things are shaping up internally & in our immediate & extended neighborhood including BD , Myanmar & Afghanistan the last thing we need is another problem on our door steps else we'd be dealing with the fallout of this for the rest of the century .
Add to that the rapidly declining H TFR & the fact that Gerala , Assam possibly even WB is poised to become M majority in a time span ranging from 2 decades from the present to 4 decades & some of us will be witness to a perfect storm of internal & external disturbances meshing seamlessly.
And this isn't even factoring China. Just my weekly rant to provide food for thought for those similarly inclined.
There is also the possibility of Pakistan getting US help to secure their claims on Sir Creek. That's my biggest worry. I have a feeling that US knows that it's pressure tactics are not working on India and we don't have a trade deal with US despite US saying multiple times that we are on the brink of getting the deal. Recent decision of building Sukhoi Superjets in India and continued oil purchase shows that India is not willing to give into to US pressure wrt Russia.
With US frustration growing, it will try to show to something to pressurise India further and I believe that will be to help Pak do some mischief near Sir Creek as that also benefits US.
Lastly, I am all for us doing a Preemptive Strike on Pak - I am sick and tired of us being reactive every time. Let's prevent another bloody event leading to loss of civilian / military life to a terror attack.
Looks like, It not white and black as it seems for us to effectively predict and analyse things though. Pakistan's geography means that it has always been a hot bed for multiple powers having an influence there. I am talking about powers at the level of US, China, USSR.
So, while Sir Creek might see tempting to US for both exploitation of resources and pressuring India.. it will most definitely jeopardize there moves wrt Chinese. For China too, while it may be happy seeing India engaged in western front.. US' increased say in arabian sea this close to its own interests in the region.
Then there's Iran, Russia, Afghanistan who will be wary of such development.
It depends on how these conflicting interest interact with each other and on ground decision by anyone ranging from a soldier firing 'canons' to a diplomat being late in passing a crucial info.. Just the myriad of things that can happen!
Plenty of things to remain to be seen