Analysis War game: Next India-Pakistan conflict

[Defc0n]

On 10th May, with the declaration of ceasefire between India and Pakistan, a "new normal" and a doctrinal change came into effect. Going forward, there will be no distinction between terrorists and Pakistan military. This re-draws our red lines quite clearly, any future attack on India soil will lead to response against Pak military targets and their Jihadi infra - so possible initial SEAD and DEAD which was missing during 7th night for Op Sindoor.

Notams declared by our military since 10th May -

#	Approx. Declaration Date	Effective Period	Issuing Branch	Description	Location
1	May 10, 2025	Unspecified (ongoing from prior, extended)	Indian Air Force / DGCA (military-related)	NOTAM G0555/25 restricting 25 airspace route segments from ground level to unlimited altitude due to security tensions with Pakistan. Replaces prior NOTAM G0525/25.	India-wide airspace (focus on borders with Pakistan).
2	June 12, 2025	Unspecified (likely mid-June)	Indian Air Force	Designation of airspace for an IAF exercise amid rising tensions.	Southern Indo-Pak border.
3	Early July 2025 (announced July 5)	July 17-18, 2025	DRDO (supports Army/Air Force)	Restricted airspace for a missile test.	Unspecified (likely Bay of Bengal or Indian Ocean).
4	Mid-July 2025	July 28-31, 2025 (tests on 28-29)	DRDO / Indian Army	Airspace restriction for Pralay tactical ballistic missile flight tests.	Bay of Bengal (off Odisha coast).
5	July 23, 2025	Until August 23, 2025	Indian Air Force / DGCA (military security)	Extension of airspace ban on Pakistani aircraft and military flights.	India-wide airspace.
6	Early August 2025 (announced August 9)	August 12 - September 5, 2025	Indian Army / DRDO (possible joint)	Restricted airspace for Integrated Air Drop Test (potentially military para-drops or related trials).	Unspecified (likely test range in India).
7	Early August 2025 (announced August 10)	August 11-12, 2025	Indian Navy	Naval firing exercises involving warships. Simultaneous with Pakistan Navy drills.	Arabian Sea.
8	Mid-August 2025 (announced August 18)	August 19-21, 2025	Indian Air Force	Large-scale military exercise.	Near Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan.
9	Early-Mid August 2025 (announced August 11-15)	August 20-21, 2025	DRDO (supports Army/Strategic Forces)	Long-range ballistic missile test (possibly Agni series or advanced variant; danger zone extended to ~4,790-4,795 km).	Bay of Bengal (off Odisha coast, extending into Indian Ocean).
10	August 22, 2025	Until September 23, 2025	Indian Air Force / DGCA (military security)	Extension of airspace closure for Pakistani-registered and military aircraft.	India-wide airspace.
11	August 23, 2025	Until September 24-25, 2025	Indian Air Force / DGCA (military security)	Further extension of airspace ban on flights from/to Pakistan.	India-wide airspace.
12	Late August 2025 (announced August 29)	September 1-2, 2025	Indian Air Force	Reservation of airspace for air exercises.	Over Rajasthan.
13	Early September 2025 (announced September 2)	September 2-3, 2025	Indian Air Force	Significant military exercise.	Near India-Pakistan border (Karachi airspace vicinity).
14	September 11, 2025	September 22-30, 2025	Indian Air Force	Exercise in northern region.	Northern India (near Nepal and China borders).
15	September 12, 2025	September 25 - October 16, 2025	Indian Air Force	Large-scale exercise.	Northeastern India (bordering China, Bhutan, Myanmar, Bangladesh).

Missile tests:

Date	Missile/System	Type	Location	Details/Outcome	Strategic Context/Source
July 17, 2025	Prithvi-II	Short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), nuclear-capable, liquid-fueled	Integrated Test Range (ITR), Chandipur, Odisha	Successful test-fire as part of routine user trials by SFC; validated 350 km range, 500–1,000 kg payload (conventional/nuclear warheads), and inertial guidance accuracy. Conducted in succession with Agni-I, marking a rare joint launch.	Pakistan-specific for tactical nuclear deterrence post-May 2025 conflict; reinforces SFC's readiness for short-range strikes. Times of India (Jul 18, 2025), NDTV, The Hindu.
July 17, 2025	Agni-I	Short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), nuclear-capable, solid-fueled	Integrated Test Range (ITR), Chandipur, Odisha (launched from Abdul Kalam Island section)	Successful test-fire alongside Prithvi-II; validated 700–900 km range, 1,000 kg payload, and advanced navigation for precision strikes. All parameters met during night trial conditions.	Enhances India's second-strike capability against Pakistan; part of periodic SFC training to maintain arsenal reliability. Times of India (Jul 18, 2025), DD News, Business Standard.
July 25, 2025	Upgraded Low Weight Precision Guided Munition (ULPGM-V3)	Air-to-ground precision-guided missile (UAV-launched)	Integrated Test Range (ITR), Chandipur, Odisha	Successful flight test; validated anti-armor, bunker-penetrating, and fragmentation warheads across varied terrain and day-night scenarios with INS and terminal radar guidance.	Boosts UAV-based precision strikes for Army/Air Force; addresses post-conflict tactical gaps. DRDO/NDTV.
July 28–29, 2025	Pralay	Short-range quasi-ballistic surface-to-surface missile (SRBM)	Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam Island, off Odisha coast	Two consecutive successful user trials: July 28 for minimum range (150 km) in simulated battlefield; July 29 for maximum range (500 km) with heavier payload and <10 m CEP accuracy. Cleared for Indian Army induction.	Tactical conventional strikes for LoC/LAC; counters Pakistan's Nasr and China's DF-12. DRDO/MoD; Army Recognition.
August 20, 2025	Agni-5	Intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), nuclear-capable with MIRV	Integrated Test Range (ITR), Chandipur, Odisha	Successful night trial of canister-launched version; achieved 5,000+ km range, validated MIRV (3–4 warheads) and advanced guidance. 10th test overall.	Strategic deterrence covering all of China/Pakistan; timed pre-SCO summit. The Guardian, CNN, Al Jazeera.
August 23, 2025	Integrated Air Defence Weapon System (IADWS) – QRSAM, VSHORADS, DEW	Multi-layered surface-to-air missile (SAM) system with directed energy weapon	Off Odisha coast	Successful maiden flight tests; integrated QRSAM (30–80 km), VSHORADS (6 km, man-portable), and laser DEW; achieved 85–98.5% kill rate in salvo against drones/missiles.	Layered defence vs. aerial threats exposed in May conflict; for tri-services. DRDO/MoD; Times of India.

The period saw a mix of tactical (Prithvi-II, Pralay), strategic (Agni-1, Agni-5), and defensive (IADWS) tests, aligning with post-Operation Sindoor enhancements. Total: 7 events (including the joint Prithvi/Agni-I as two). All under SFC/DRDO oversight.

So, I take the above as an indicator that India is preparing for an upcoming conflict with Pakistan, most likely while Trump is President of USA.

Possible scenarios ordered based on likelihood :

1. A deadly terror attack on Indian soil -- It's going to be a situation where an attack leads to high loss of Military and/or Civilian life like Pahalgam, Pulwama. Given India's established doctrine, Pakistan initiates a pre-emptive attack on Indian based citing a "defensive strike". This starts the conflict.

2. Pakistan makes a surprise strike on some military target: Given the loss that Pakistan faced, they could try to redeem themselves, but I don't think they will do so without a pretext (like in 1). Still, Pakistan being Pakistan, anything is possible.

3. India strikes inside Pakistan - An IAF exercise turns lethal and knocks down some HVT in Pakistan citing Op Sindoor is still on. I find this highly unlikely given our reactive nature. A remote possibility perhaps!


Primary political stakeholders in case of a conflict: [USA, China, Turkey], Russia, Iran


Let the wargaming begin.


Note to mods: If there is a better place for this thread, please move it. Thank you!

 

[Subgradewalker]

So, I take the above as an indicator that India is preparing for an upcoming conflict with Pakistan, most likely while Trump is President of USA.

I replied on another thread in response to your post with similar topic. I am quoting it here for coherence.

I have to agree with defcon here. We can't take decision on assumptions which puts pakistan as a rational adversary. Time and again, it has proven that rationality has very little to do with their actions. Their actions are led by their ideological need, and circumstances when trying to have more control of population of Pakistan. And skirmish with India has always been their favourite way of doing it.

Another aspect is that last three attacks have been in Kashmir region. But, whenever they want to bring global attention to kashmir, they target mainland India.

### Let me explain:

Terrorism is literally an industry in today's world, terror orgs are as much as in competition within themselves for funding just like any corporate will be. And that financial network is global with different vested interests "investing" in different orgs that does things which helps their own cause.
US propping up mujahideen is just one of the open news of a nation funding terrorist. And the network they had created all over middle east and Africa to fund it, still runs.
And it's not in control of US govt alone anymore.

Saudi Iran, Iraq, Russia, China, turkey, europe, royalty, the so called 1% .. all have been found or strongly suspected ( even india) to fund these proxy groups as their needs suit. ISI is more like a node in this network. Mujahideen, Taliban , Hamas, Hezbollah, ISIS and it's variant.. they started as radical group but now are part of wider network. It's not for nothing that it's rightly called terrorism industry now.
ISI gets a lot of things from this industry. They get finances and leverage from it. Narcotics, trafficking, smuggling forms a huge part of this network and these things thrive in unstable regions, not the stable ones.
Basically people running pakistan have a huge stake in this global jihadi network. The whole mumbai underworld became a major part of it during early day of this network. And war on terror was the final push that made pakistan literally dependent on the industry. Heck, i don't think they can get out of it now even if they want to. Far larger forces are in control and thrive on the network to see one of its node being dismantled that easy. (Imran Khan, positive vibes don't create a good ground for radicalism).
And this network isn't a theory, i am sure we all know that. And it's not only against India. West Asians royalties use these to find groups to target other royalties. Iran used it to suppress Israel. And China have done it in Myanmar conflict, China, US, Europe in sudan-rwanda conflict among other major african terror orgs too, for minerals and to make sure that a strong african govt doesn't make it harder for them to explore and exploit the vast minerals there. Earlier Gold, copper now REE.
Drug cartels have interest to destablise region resulting in increased in drug money. I mean we just call them cartel or mafia cause they do things away from public limelight with little direct friction in civilian lives and run by profit intersts. Terrorist funders might not, but terrorist differ in such that they are radical in nature that can't be controlled with traditional logic of greed. They want to kill, not run some business. Add to it their nature of being attracted to public highlight, it's mafia x 10. Point being, pakistan is a major producer of those terrorists that can't be groomed with promises of money. They need a cause. i.e. Mujhaideen against USSR, Let JUD etc against India.. which fits right into their ambition as a nation state too.

- Huge finances, basically a shadow economy of unprecedented scale unlike any other in past.


###

Coming back to the answer, my rationale is that Israel has dealt heavy blow to existing terrorist orgs in their region. Pakistan have suffered a lot too because of unsuccesful attempts and big indian response. It isn't just against few terrorists or pak army.. but just like in business, even their "investors" will think twice before funding them. Choosing other methods they have at their disposal.

This creates a far more threat to ISI/ pak army/ pak govt/ pakistan ( there's hardly any difference now with munir in power) finances and leverage than being discussed but being directly backed by state resources and land.. it's not in hamas like state.
It will do everything to pitch itself as a contender. Munir isn't fool to make those terrorist remarks from foreign soil. There's a lot of donors ( charity) in that part of world. It's just like when modi goes to foreign soil and pitches India as a place for investment and building. Difference is the area they are calling for investments in.
And kid yourself not, there's huge no. of sponsors who have interests and need to use these terrorists for their cause. Wether in India, against Russia, Against US, Against Middle eastern.. yes, they don't have a permanent contract. If you notice.. ISI has hands in various organisations targetting different different regions. And it's barely sustaining itself right now with stronger pushback from Indian state, Israel's actions and China getting close to Taiwan annexation timeline, US backing off for some time to an extent.
Hence, even the rational thinking from ISIs pov is to do an attack on india to come back into headlines. They tried in pahalgam but instead face more credibility issues due to op sindoor.

And this time they might even have tacit support from US too. Not because of just trade. But I believe everyone in world will want to test India's new normal to calibrate their future assessment of india.

And this time, it might not be from Jk to mainland. But either sleeper cells, Bangladesh and nepali borders and their citizens giving them the point that it's not their national. ( Based on recent remarks). Add to that RGs statement that anyone can "misuse" this to attack india and target pak ( fits into future pak narrative and victim card), chidambaram ( what if they're homegrown terrorist) , the compromised and complicit members of various political parties ( based on people found and arrested during past crackdown), modules busted ( recently in jharkhand and Punjab) , and many other NGOs (US involvement) .. I see the foundation being set for next terror attacks and subsequent political and military warfare.

Coming back to the case of SFC tests, and such.. earlier I was not being able to come up with possible effective reaction to this or validity of such assumption cum analysis. But the most recent NOTAM in northeast makes me really believe it and actually wonder if IAFs signalling their willingness and getting ready to strike in eastern bordered groups in case of such event.

I see three challenges:

1. Indian intelligence can't afford any mistake. But prepare for worst is ideal way. So, have to counter the people radicalised and recruited inside India to foil use of this narrative and threat. ( The busted one might be either decoys, or just one of many being activated)

2. Armed forces this time have to be ready for bigger escalation from western border. And have to see if political will comes for eastern borders.

3. It's the challenge for govt and BJP. The NGOs, RaGa,and ( not anti national but shortsighted) other political parties are waiting like hawks with script in hand to muddy the waters at the first signal. And this i believe is the most difficult challenge of three. Cause these elements hide behind narrative of public welfare to undermine public itself.
And I absolutely believe that both govt and BJP failed this challenge during last iteration of op sindoor.
I don't see any initiative of adaptation from govt that suggests that we are getting ready for much bigger campaign. Although Congress keeps giving them experience regularly but still very un-coordinated efforts from BJP.. let alone the fragmented govt machinery.
And the next war as already stated by our generals and CDS will be fought not only by military but civil society. That's info warfare and challenging new doctrine through rationale such as ( non Pakistani national, rerouting funding methods to make it harder to track and provide credible proof that the 0.5 will definitely ask), testing the new doctrine and its limits.
I don't know what future holds but hopefully some sense will prevail among public and non govt/bjp politicians to not help the 0.5 cause most of them do it for plitical gains, not supporting the 0.5.

I rest my case. My rationale arrives from my own thoughts + couple of interviews I read of US officers + timeline of past incidents. I will try to collect the sources and timelines in one place and post it here.

 

[Subgradewalker]

I replied on another thread in response to your post with similar topic. I am quoting it here for coherence.

There's still few gaps in above rationale. Will further see it's possibility and what other things are missing that changes the game.

Discussion, suggestions, counter arguments are very welcome.

 

[Defc0n]

I replied on another thread in response to your post with similar topic. I am quoting it here for coherence.

During Op Sindoor, Pakistan was found wanting in terms of their offensive capabilities. We had answers to everything they threw at us, including but not limited to HATF-1. This is the main area which Pakistan will look to work on before the next round. All the transports coming into Pakistan from China, Turkey are most likely stuff that they can use to put some hurt on India which they can show the world. The one area which Pakistan lost badly this time was satellite imagery, the didn't have squat to show for all the stuff they lobbed towards us.

So, now you might be wondering what does this have to do the future conflict. Everything in my opinion.
USA has been hurt by the last offensive, either they lost men or equipment or both at Noor Khan, add to that Trump was denied a chance to mediate which has hit his ego. US is trying all sorts of things to strong arm India and GoI, without any result so far.

The aim of the next round (and I agree with @Subgradewalker ) will be to test India's new doctrine and political will. USA knows that the current GoI will not toe their line and give in to their demands, especially to issues of national security. The general CIA playbook (Nepal, Bangladesh, ...) is hard to execute in India (remember Farmer protests? ).

So, ask yourself this - What's the best way to corner GoI?
A military conflict with Pakistan where the International media, read US puppets, can show satellite images of strikes within India. India as a nation is extremely sensitive to losses as we have seen multiple times (Abhinandan-PoW + Mig 21) , supposed Rafale losses. Imagine the outrage/panic if our cities get hit causing civilian deaths and loss of national infra - oil refineries (Trump has a stake here as well) etc.

It will basically be Pakistan doing US's bidding to force GoI into a corner - if anything of the above scale happens, it forces India into a full blown conflict with Pakistan. Now, think about what cards US holds wrt Indian OPs -- spares for multiple systems that we use and upcoming deals for engines and also sanctions in the garb of some nonsense - taking help from Russia for example! Things that they can leverage to strong arm India to not go "all out" against Pakistan. This is a catch-22 for India, if you go all out, you risk losing tech and infra required for our defence, if you don't your citizens will bury you and there is no good option here. This will have a direct impact on our economy as well as result of future elections.

Worst case for US: India doesn't pay heed to their strong arming and goes in full throttle against Pakistan. What does USA lose? A big, fat Nothing!. Again our economy takes a hit and Pakistan (being expendable) would have served it's purpose and usefulness to USA.

I have deliberately kept out China from this post as I wanted to write about the "Why" I think the next conflict is not far away and also reference to the tweet from @Hellfire that has been posted here "Brace for impact... ".

 

[Defc0n]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1966881143237865692

What gives him this impression? US Dollars getting pumped in hard?

 

[Jarvis]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1966881143237865692

What gives him this impression? US Dollars getting pumped in hard?

Lol, don't take any such claims from any senior Pakistani officials seriously. I am sure that "Pakistan going to become a leading economy" has been claimed 3-4 times in last 4-5 years by them. Combine that with their periodical claims of gold, oil, gas and other mineral discoveries, if any of that were true, Pakistan would have overtaken US by now.

 

[Jaymax]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1966881143237865692

What gives him this impression? US Dollars getting pumped in hard?

I have seen this mujra 10 yrs ago when I was told that by 2030 Indians would be seeking Pakistani work permits when CPEC turns Pak into a dollar surplus powerhouse.

 

[Jaymax]

Lol, don't take any such claims from any senior Pakistani officials seriously. I am sure that "Pakistan going to become a leading economy" has been claimed 3-4 times in last 4-5 years by them. Combine that with their periodical claims of gold, oil, gas and other mineral discoveries, if any of that were true, Pakistan would have overtaken US by now.

There is a Hindi quote that roughly translates to - “Dogs can’t digest ghee”

Our neighbours unfortunately bear this curse. They had the literal gift of god. Their economy was propped up by a Cold War fanatic superpower. Believe it or not Pak had a higher living standard in the 70s only comparing major urban centers.

They pissed it away on the double addiction of Islamization and Kashmir.

 

[RationalGuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1966881143237865692

What gives him this impression? US Dollars getting pumped in hard?

@safriz you guys can't even produce motorcycles but will become a leading economy?

 

[_Anonymous_]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1966881143237865692

What gives him this impression? US Dollars getting pumped in hard?

What gives him this impression isn't the right way to frame your question ! Fauji Foundation has been taking heavy casualties in KPK FATA & Balochistan.

His April speech - the pre cursor to Pahalgam , where he belittled the various tanzeemat Fauji Foundation is facing no longer holds water.

Everyday Fauji Foundation is reporting fatalities & casualties taking them on. It's another matter both are being under reported in the national media if they're being reported at all.

Just a couple of days back Field Marshal Manure & Ganja -2 the Mayor of Islambarbaad were at the Namaz e Janaza of ~ 20 personnel , a rare official admission of fatalities in Paxtan.

Besides this there's the economic condition which is deteriorating , the floods which are worsening , general climate change which Paxtan is ill equipped to cope up with , indebtedness & so on .

Since the present can't be rectified , all he can do is point out to a future which holds more promise.

Alhamdulillah !

 

[Defc0n]

What gives him this impression isn't the right way to frame your question ! Fauji Foundation has been taking heavy casualties in KPK FATA & Balochistan.

His April speech - the pre cursor to Pahalgam , where he belittled the various tanzeemat Fauji Foundation is facing no longer holds water.

Everyday Fauji Foundation is reporting fatalities & casualties taking them on. It's another matter both are being under reported in the national media if they're being reported at all.

Just a couple of days back Field Marshal Manure & Ganja -2 the Mayor of Islambarbaad were at the Namaz e Janaza of ~ 20 personnel , a rare official admission of fatalities in Paxtan.

Besides this there's the economic condition which is deteriorating , the floods which are worsening , general climate change which Paxtan is ill equipped to cope up with , indebtedness & so on .

Since the present can't be rectified , all he can do is point out to a future which holds more promise.

Alhamdulillah !

Or, go back to their “favourite distraction”, if you know what I mean! That’s a great way to divert the attention of their nation!

 

[Subgradewalker]

What gives him this impression isn't the right way to frame your question ! Fauji Foundation has been taking heavy casualties in KPK FATA & Balochistan.

His April speech - the pre cursor to Pahalgam , where he belittled the various tanzeemat Fauji Foundation is facing no longer holds water.

Everyday Fauji Foundation is reporting fatalities & casualties taking them on. It's another matter both are being under reported in the national media if they're being reported at all.

Just a couple of days back Field Marshal Manure & Ganja -2 the Mayor of Islambarbaad were at the Namaz e Janaza of ~ 20 personnel , a rare official admission of fatalities in Paxtan.

Besides this there's the economic condition which is deteriorating , the floods which are worsening , general climate change which Paxtan is ill equipped to cope up with , indebtedness & so on .

Since the present can't be rectified , all he can do is point out to a future which holds more promise.

Alhamdulillah !

That's the mentality their whole ummah runs on.
Self destruct, blame and talk about glorious future... Thru violence?

 

[screambowl]

Here is the diplomatic angle.

Any involvement of any third party directly or indirectly and de-recognizing the LOC is a breech of Simla Agreement signed by Pakistan after surrender in 1971. Pakistan was making threat that they will suspend Simla Agreement to facilitate third party involvement and de-recognizing the LOC, when India put IWT in abeyance, can only be countered by second surrender of Pakistan with a new agreement. India will not have too much diplomatic option but to go outright and this should be clear to Pakistan as well.

In case India suspends some clauses of Simla Agreement ( India may not do it, because Simla Agreement is a proof of Pakistan's surrender), the Pakistan will reciprocate or the vice versa. In any case the chances of a full scare war are high.

This is why I said Pakistan will not get second chance.

 

[Defc0n]

Here is the diplomatic angle.

Any involvement of any third party directly or indirectly and de-recognizing the LOC is a breech of Simla Agreement signed by Pakistan after surrender in 1971. Pakistan was making threat that they will suspend Simla Agreement to facilitate third party involvement and de-recognizing the LOC, when India put IWT in abeyance, can only be countered by second surrender of Pakistan with a new agreement. India will not have too much diplomatic option but to go outright and this should be clear to Pakistan as well.

In case India suspends some clauses of Simla Agreement ( India may not do it, because Simla Agreement is a proof of Pakistan's surrender), the Pakistan will reciprocate or the vice versa. In any case the chances of a full scare war are high.

This is why I said Pakistan will not get second chance.

With current Trump government, there is a 100% probability that US will intervene and try to stop a full blown Indian offensive! That’s exactly what Munir is counting on. His objectives are clear,

1. Inflict provable damage on India, something that their old and new masters can then trumpet on their puppet media.

2. Seek intervention from US to ensure minimal damage (comparatively) to Pakistan side, something that both Pakistan and the West can term as a “Pakistani Victory” to hurt India’s image on the global forum.

With 1 and 2 achieved, Pakistan will be happy that they have avenged Op Sindoor. With some critical infrastructure being hit (my assumption, oil related) US will try to apply more pressure regarding Russian Oil with sanctions forcing India to buy oil from USA.

Now, where things can start to go wrong for US is, if India decides to ignore US and hammer Pak to oblivion! Still they can do stuff to us with sanctions etc stating Modi’s war!

 

[screambowl]

With current Trump government, there is a 100% probability that US will intervene and try to stop a full blown Indian offensive! That’s exactly what Munir is counting on. His objectives are clear,

They want to protect their investment in India, and they should be given confidence that it's safe. Indian air defence and employment of Sudarshan Shakra can handle it. But can't promise the same about Pakistan, not necessarily because of Indian aggression but look at the condition, they should chose their partners correctly. If Pakistan with merely 200 million population acts as a terror state, then 1 billion can't sit and watch them doing. This doesn't happen this way.

1. Inflict provable damage on India, something that their old and new masters can then trumpet on their puppet media.

Flood in India does more damage than what Pakistan can do.

2. Seek intervention from US to ensure minimal damage (comparatively) to Pakistan side, something that both Pakistan and the West can term as a “Pakistani Victory” to hurt India’s image on the global forum.

PM Modi has learnt a big lesson by calling off the operation. This will not happen next time.

 

[Jaymax]

Pak’s story is they take a kernel of truth and wrap layers of lies and deceit around it.

Fried Marshmallow got concessions from Trump. Yes, in the short term it’s a favourable deal. His fallacy is to assume the good times will always last. So he is building this narrative around it and the army and the nation desperate for some mental salve after the recent skirmish are lapping it up.

Remember CPEC. Truth was investments were coming. The lies were investments were on favorable terms. Deceit was the usual suspects embezzled the funds. In some cases as much as 70%

 

[Jarvis]

I have seen this mujra 10 yrs ago when I was told that by 2030 Indians would be seeking Pakistani work permits when CPEC turns Pak into a dollar surplus powerhouse.

Those CPEC days were wild man. That was the time when India's economic and military lead had not yet settled in Pakistani psyche (it has not yet settled completely). They still believed that India == Pakistan, just that India has better PR and India spreads propaganda about Pakistani terrorism, hence Pakistan has bad name, otherwise both nations are sem2sem, the same cope some Pakistanis still have. The supposed benefits of CPEC told by Pakistani politicians, economists and general population were wild. They believed that lines of trucks will travel through the Karakoram pass giving Pakistan enormous amount of transit fee, exceeding that of Suez canal (it earns $6 billion annually). Chinese will shift all their trade through CPEC on trucks (when sea trade costs 1/10th of road trade) and export massively through Gwadar via Xinjiang.

When Indians pointed out that most of these "investments" were actually loans, and that Karakoram pass is in hostile terrain and closed for 6 months due to snow, that the CPEC projects had been awarded to Chinese companies who use Chinese raw materials, machinery and labour, that it is impossible to conduct massive trade through Karakoram pass, we were taunted with "jealous Indian" jibes. I used to think that why are Pakistanis hyping a $45-50 billion investment so much while we are not hyping the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor with planned investment of $90 billion. As I told @safriz , delusion is a country, and its name is Pakistan. The grand delusions regarding CPEC in Pakistan were hysterical. But those are still nothing compared to others. Right now Asim Munir's delusion is "Pakistan will become a leading economy" when all economic fundamentals are down the drain.

 

[Defc0n]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1967281004454002832

My option 3 starting to look like a good option

 

[safriz]

Those CPEC days were wild man. That was the time when India's economic and military lead had not yet settled in Pakistani psyche (it has not yet settled completely). They still believed that India == Pakistan, just that India has better PR and India spreads propaganda about Pakistani terrorism, hence Pakistan has bad name, otherwise both nations are sem2sem, the same cope some Pakistanis still have. The supposed benefits of CPEC told by Pakistani politicians, economists and general population were wild. They believed that lines of trucks will travel through the Karakoram pass giving Pakistan enormous amount of transit fee, exceeding that of Suez canal (it earns $6 billion annually). Chinese will shift all their trade through CPEC on trucks (when sea trade costs 1/10th of road trade) and export massively through Gwadar via Xinjiang.

When Indians pointed out that most of these "investments" were actually loans, and that Karakoram pass is in hostile terrain and closed for 6 months due to snow, that the CPEC projects had been awarded to Chinese companies who use Chinese raw materials, machinery and labour, that it is impossible to conduct massive trade through Karakoram pass, we were taunted with "jealous Indian" jibes. I used to think that why are Pakistanis hyping a $45-50 billion investment so much while we are not hyping the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor with planned investment of $90 billion. As I told @safriz , delusion is a country, and its name is Pakistan. The grand delusions regarding CPEC in Pakistan were hysterical. But those are still nothing compared to others. Right now Asim Munir's delusion is "Pakistan will become a leading economy" when all economic fundamentals are down the drain.

50 years ago my dad was an engineer in Pakistani military, involved in the construction of Karakoram highway, connecting Pakistan and China.
Back then also we heard all the things you mentioned about CPEC.
Literally exactly same things.

Failure of these economic opportunities aren't only fue to india, but mainly because of our own policies and political failures.

50 years ago India was nowhere the same as now. But the failures of utilising the land link between China and Pakistan was there , I still remember.

My dad used to tell me that China wants to export nuclear power plant components to Pakistan by road , and such and such bridge needs to be widened and strengthened.
That never happened, because Pakistani rulers were too busy doing corruption. The money for widening those bridges was never released and China couldn't send those wide and heavy components to Pakistan.
So india should not take all the credit. Give some to Pakistani rulers too.

 

[RationalGuy]

50 years ago my dad was an engineer in Pakistani military, involved in the construction of Karakoram highway, connecting Pakistan and China.
Back then also we heard all the things you mentioned about CPEC.
Literally exactly same things.

Failure of these economic opportunities aren't only fue to india, but mainly because of our own policies and political failures.

50 years ago India was nowhere the same as now. But the failures of utilising the land link between China and Pakistan was there , I still remember.

My dad used to tell me that China wants to export nuclear power plant components to Pakistan by road , and such and such bridge needs to be widened and strengthened.
That never happened, because Pakistani rulers were too busy doing corruption. The money for widening those bridges was never released and China couldn't send those wide and heavy components to Pakistan.
So india should not take all the credit. Give some to Pakistani rulers too.

It didn't stop them from flying you guys uranium and other nuclear material. But in due time, we will repay the chinkies.