India - United States Relations

[Hydra]

I'd always wished GoI would choose a career diplomat as EAM over politicians like Sushma Swaraj. But frankly, Jaishankar has been a bit of a letdown. First, he is very undiplomatic in his public engagements at think tanks and conclaves. For all his talk of dehyphenating India-Pak, Jaishankar is always complaining about how the US treated India unfairly in the 1960s and 70s in terms of arms sales, et all.

True, national interest is supreme- whether it comes to India's oil purchases or mil cooperation with Russia. However, you don't sulk about it in public and expect to be called a 'diplomat'. Maybe he's doing this to shore up his public image and is shooting for a political career, post-retirement.

Exactly, be subtle infront of public & press on west and be rock hard on action. Our PM can handle EAM affairs better than Jaishankar. He is diplomatic, but never turn down national interest.

Lastly not least, two most disappointing performing ministers in Modi government since 2019 are graduated from JNU. I don't need to tell the name of i other one, everyone knows who is that.

 

[Hydra]

I had this opinion since.... very long time now.

I believe selection of F404 and F414 were error of coincidence, failure of planning and stupidity of execution ie, incompetence. It is fixable, the due cost should be paid (in terms of moving to RD-33MK) and jets should be flying now.

Best part? If you want to export Tejas to a country that has good enough relation with US, you can always export F404 version.

Make a big inventory of RD-33MK parts that we import from Russia and assemble/make engines as well need locally at HAL. Pay whatever Putin is asking.

Its not mere an error, a catastrophic failiure. But selecting RD33 for a single engine aircraft, supposed to do CAP mission on daily mission will be a "catastrophic failiure pro max". EJ200 or M88 would have been the ideal choice.

I dont recall french had offered their engine for LCA, but EJ200 was. So, we should have go to EJ for LCA MK2 in 2018-19 time frame itself.

 

[Hydra]

Seriously , so what about drones, transport aircraft, apache helis, P8I, chinooks. guided bombs..etc these are not co-incidence. Luckily we dint bite the fighter aircraft bait. But US can still arm twist French to deny the spares.

If are waging war on US, yeas they can stop French from supplying as NATO bomd is thicker than indo French relationship. Just like Brits did to France during Falkland war.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Niti Ayog influences Indian diplomacy. G20 summit was handled by an IAS not an IFS guy. IAS are more diplomatic due to the vast experience they gain from districts.

You can replace an IFS officer by an IAS officer or to a fact even IPS or IRS officer but you can't replace any of them with an IFS officer. First they don't wish do get deputed in ministries under any Minister, secondly when they are they come for only short period for training, thirdly they are not fit. This is one of the reason why previously all NSA came from IFS, but Modi govt stopped it and braught some on from intel background
( IPS). IFS don't fit any where apart from MEA.

This how government functions.

Niti Ayog is a think tank. It influences everything as much as other advisory council does. That doesn't supersedes the role of FM in directing the FP.
If your words are taken on face value.. then why even niti ayog..maybe it's the family members of niti ayog who decides indian FP. You know cause they have influence over them. Haww!!

Dumb. Dumber. Dumbest. And then there's you.

Managing G20 as an event and handling diplomacy with the states are two very different things.
To say that IPS, IRS officers are more diplomatic due to experience from Indian districts... Do you live in India of an alternative universe?
Someone tell him the undiplomatic behaviour or rather bossy behaviour of Indian IAS class towards Indians. The only diplomacy they might have learnt is how to keep a politician happy.
That doesn't automatically translate into the skills, knowledge and mindset required to take part in high stakes International Diplomacy.
The nature of skill required is different and why TF are you expecting IAF to replace an IAS or IPS whose work is domestic and completely different.
Even an IPS can't replace IAS and vice versa. You're distorting the whole setup without coherence.

Ajit Doval wasn't chosen cause he was an IPS officer. He was chosen due to his experience in intelligence operations. How does that have a bearing on responsibility of FM and MEA? You do realise that any embassy of any nation in any nation is basically the contact point for covert operations and the HQ. Even IFS officers work in close tandem with agencies to handle the diplomatic part of things. Cause, while IPS have knowledge of Indian districts, IFS have knowledge of the concerned nations and regions policies.

Acc to you we should shut down MEA and send IPS officers to police the world .
You're trying to mislead the discussion based on your secretive understanding and speculation. Don't peddle the conspiracy narratives.

You really do not know what is the issue with India and China or do you know? I have not invented any of my own reality. This is how it is. China is constantly saying Indian govt was not a part of this arrangement, because it was British India that time, when the line between India and Tobet was drawn by gora sahab. This is the whole fuzz.

Why do you think most of the European nations haven't abolished their Monarchies except for France? It is because the treaties are still in force which were signed 300 years ago.

You really need to brush up your knowledge on IR

Lmao.. you didn't even read what I wrote. How the fk are you equating british india vs Independent India to Two diff govt of Same India??

And you haven't answered any of my questions so far! How does secret, unofficial, invalid and non public mou signing on a party-party basis amounts to a brilliant strategic manouver in your alternate reality?

Dude... India isn't ruled by monarchy and even if british tomorrow abolished monarchy.. it doesn't change the ground reality in India.
The British govt won't suddenly come and say that the deal was with monarchy and now we want a colony back . Monarchy in europe is a showpiece and a tradition kept alive for public and to avoid unnecessary paperwork. They've no real authority over their govts.
And that has no implications on indo-chinese border issues. Most of Africa is fighting with each other due to hastened boundaries drawn by colonial powers. That doesn't mean that their parties bypasses state to have agreement with other states party.

As for my knowledge on IR.. you're right.. I need to brush up my knowledge of IR. After all, i just did my degree in IR, read books, wrote papers, interacted with think tanks, interned there... I seriously need to join IPS to brush up my "IR" knowledge.

While you should maybe brush up your brain to weed out fantasy worms and have some common sense.

I only showed you a pattern that S Jaishanker become the Foreign Minister, Galwan happens, then Sri Lanka goes into Chinese lap, then Maldieves, Bangladesh crisis occur, and now Indo US diplomatic crisis. After that during Op Sindoor you suddenly call off the operation and people like Samir Saran say that carrying on was not neccesary, who is Samir Saran? Relaince Man in ORF influencing Indian foreign policy.

One should really ask S Jaishanker is he working for Indian government or Reliance.

Lmao.. nehru became PM and 1947 happens, LBS comes and 1965 happens. Nehru enters into his third term and 1962 happens .

Srilanka went into chinese lap way before NDA govt came to power. Asking me to brush up my knowledge while spouting such ignorant statements. Same with Maldives and Bangla.. have you forgotten when BRI investment started.. srilanka crisis was the culmination of bad debt trap..not the beginning.

And it's under Jaishankar that you deride, that Maldives just got humbled and had to bring up whole cabinet to welcome PM to mend ties or see collapse of either economy or sovereignity. .. i am telling ya, you seem to contact us through an portal connected to different reality.

As for op sindoor.. you can't even understand basic stuff.. you won't be able to grasp the nature, scope of op sindoor and the strategic calculus behind it.
Let alone bringing a think tank guys statement on a podcast to peddle narrative as if he was the only person who commented his views among plethora of people.. including " brilliant strategist" like you.

For all the screaming you do, you can't even grasp the basic facts that it's not FMs call to take on the matters of military operations. Need further proof of your fallacy?

If Bangladesh crisis has become China vs USA in Mayanmar then Indians are at fault because they allowed others to have massive influence in a sate which was once Indian territory.
Stop this BS arguement.

And how does jaishankar or NDA comes here? Who was responsible for partition. Who was in power for majority of govt tenures.
Whose govt is it in bengal.
And former territory . So will UK govt be held responsible for its lack of influence in pakistan vs China? Idiot.

Read books. Watch less youtube.

 

[Speedster1]

Bessent, Navarro, Lutnick.. none of these are seasoned statesman. Most of them are either businessman with history of trade partnership with trump or guys like Navarro who have invented dubious methods to decide tarrif rates.

Trump had been railing against Indian trade barriers all through his election campaign. For example: import duties on Harley Davidson. Given the absolute majority he now enjoys in both houses, it should have been clear to GoI that he'd push in this direction.

Contingency plans should have been in place as soon as Trump was sworn in and the names of prospects for cabinet positions started doing the rounds. Jaishankar was at Trump's swearing in ceremony. I can't imagine he wouldn't have known which way the wind was blowing.

They literally tariffed Brazil cause their choice of brazilian leader was legally investigated on charges relating to election revolts like trump. That's not a policy you can size up because this ain't a policy.. it's a bunch of guys getting a hard on playing prez prez.
It's like Trump gushed about its first term of being prez to his friends that they all wanted in.

This has more to do with Lula's active push for de-dollarization, imo. In India's case though, we were the least likely to side with BRICS on de-dollarization but Trump still chose to stick us. This is because our messaging in public and pvt discussions with US leaders are not in sync. Now the US is paying us back in the same coin. Navarro, Rubio, Bessent are all taking to the media what should have been part of pvt negotiations.

Modi rebuked trump on call. And made it clear it on record in parliament about non-interference. I don't know what RAGA & Trump got beside some pakistani votes and nomination. Do you realise US diplomatic error here? They got endorsed by a nation well famous for Osama bin Laden in and out of USA.
If that wasn't enough the second nation to endorse was paks ideological enemy Israel which is under heat for gaza war.
He even tried to pressure is through oil tarrifs.. and democrats are having a field day blasting trump since India-Russia-China got closer ( even if just to hedge the best). White House is running to media to put out the fire.

If Trump had no qualms meeting Syria's terrorist-turned-political leader, he won't show any deferrence to Infian sensitivities wrt Pak either. That's a given. In my view, we could have played for time by showing interest in the F-35, going through briefings, flight trials, et all. In due course, we could've said it didn't meet our requirements. That would have stalled US secondary sanctions and higher tarrifs in one stroke.

We could have learned from fellow Quad member Japan. They offered Trump an investment deal of over $350 billion with caveats, much like those MoUs signed by state govts and GoI at the countless investment summits we hold every year. In due course, we could let it die a slow death.

We clearly cannot afford direct confrontation with both the US and China. That's what forced us to patch up with the Chinese. But what do you think happens if Op Sindoor 2.0 started within a month or two?

List me instance of Jaishankar being undiplomatic vis a vis USA that will erode trust in USA. And again, whats with this inferiority complex? USA needs India as much as we need US. Who else they will place their best on against China? Pacific Islands with little military power and capacity? ASEAN? Who?

India. Because india is the only nation in south Asia which has shown both the will and capability to push back china, both in diplomacy and military.

So, stop with this anxiety and fear you've created in your minds. India-US relations including GE-404 isn't going anywhere.
Only tricky deal is 414 and given the timeline and history of HALs punctuality.. there's enough time for India ( if serious) to have indigineous engine by the time AMCA needs one.

India has made it clear since day one that we don't want to be part of an Asian NATO. At best, we might provide MRO, limited basing or refueling services to US forces in the event of a Taiwan invasion. Doubt the Americans wouldn't have factored that in before doing what they did.

Trump's reluctance to sanction/tariff China is because of the one thing we lack: leverage. And this is not even the half of it. Trump may be looking to tax remittances, slash H-1B visas and even hit the Indian services sector. That will hurt us more than the US, af least in the short term. Military sales might continue but it is now a Damocles sword hanging over our heads, one that could stall critical progs like LCA Mk1A/2.

 

[RISING SUN]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1958354842419921277

 

[Saaho]

Let's forget the fact that Russians were not considered because they did not meet performance requirements.

We are making RD-33MK since what? 2009? Locally. For Mig-29/Ks

RD-33MK is about 1152 KG in dry weight
Produces 88KN wet thrust. 54 KN dry thrust.
It has FADEC and burns fuel smokelessly, unlike RD-98 that Pakistan flies.
Its service life is 4000 hours.

It compares pretty well to F404

F404 has dry thrust of 50 KN
wet thrust of 84 KN
weight of 1072 KG.

So please don't give me this performance bullshit. I will take a lower performance jet engine than no jet engine at all. And in this case, I can not even call RD-33MK low performance.

If it was russian engines, The same people will come and compare performance of LCA with JF-17 and give us gyan how we should have chosen GE404.

The only Gyan we need is that there are more than 100 of those JF-17s flying right now while our blood plane is yet waiting for its engine. And we will get those engines at a formidable rate of *checks note* 2 per year. Good luck.

Last but not least, if our policies were not made by some stupid middle class penny wise idiot in south block, we would have made both versions. Increases our market and keeps a gun on the head of idiots like GE.

 

[Saaho]

Its not mere an error, a catastrophic failiure. But selecting RD33 for a single engine aircraft, supposed to do CAP mission on daily mission will be a "catastrophic failiure pro max". EJ200 or M88 would have been the ideal choice.

I dont recall french had offered their engine for LCA, but EJ200 was. So, we should have go to EJ for LCA MK2 in 2018-19 time frame itself.

No, the bigger failure will be having NO engine to fly frames sitting in some storage cellar of HAL. And thats the situation now. The worst aircraft is one that does not fly at all.

RD33-MK, M88, EJ200 or even M53-p8 of Mirage are all better than no engine at all.

BTW, French DID offer a version of Kaveri built around M88 core. But fukken swadeshi BS kept that option out. It would be RM-12 kind of set up and I think that kind of Kaveri would have been a very valuable addition to our local engine effort. This big bang mentality and ideological engineering done in Indian MIC is bullshit.

 

[babablacksheep]

I can not even call RD-33MK low performance.

Rd-33mk has higher SFC, hence range and endurance of tejas would decrease significantly.
It also has 15% larger diameter than f404, so i won't fit.
Shoving a new engine is complex thing, it can even include things like having to redesign intakes and ducts.
Plus the usual writing an entirely new FADEC for engine, and flight software for jet, modifying an engine which meets the dimensions with different mounting points, strengthing those areas, and realignment of some subsystems for weight distribution.
Then this new modified varients goes through all the recertification and testing.

All in all it take years to customize an already existing engine which meets the performance and dimensions requirements to be compatible with the jet, assuming the jet doesn't require any significant modifications.

In rd-33mk case, the time it would take and result it would give, it would be much better to just scarp tejas, and focus the effort on tejas mk2 with ej200 or m88 engine varient.


Rd-33mk is not an option, never will be.

 

[Saaho]

Rd-33mk has higher SFC, hence range and endurance of tejas would decrease significantly.
It also has 15% larger diameter than f404, so i won't fit.
Shoving a new engine is complex thing, it can even include things like having to redesign intakes and ducts.
Plus the usual writing an entirely new FADEC for engine, and flight software for jet, modifying an engine which meets the dimensions with different mounting points, strengthing those areas, and realignment of some subsystems for weight distribution.
Then this new modified varients goes through all the recertification and testing.

All in all it take years to customize an already existing engine which meets the performance and dimensions requirements to be compatible with the jet, assuming the jet doesn't require any significant modifications.

In rd-33mk case, the time it would take and result it would give, it would be much better to just scarp tejas, and focus the effort on tejas mk2 with ej200 or m88 engine varient.


Rd-33mk is not an option, never will be.

We had all the time in the world in 2010s to make a variant with Russian engine. Remember, we always wanted to make Tejas with its own Kaveri engine. So re-engining was always in plan, till Kaveri pooped out.

And it is not unheard of having variants of a plane with ability to accommodate different engines. Remember, the original goal? Develop with F404 and productize with Kaveri. Even Kaveri has a bigger max-diameter than F404. These are all technical challenges that are routinely solved. It has been done a huge number of times. Israel Kfir vs Mirage III. F16 has two engine options and yes, they have different diameters.

And FADEC etc? All of that shit is again routine. Basic concept of abstraction and modularity in engineering is for this situation only.

Its lack of planning and nothing else. Heck, HAL et al could have stockpiled F404 engine in 2010s. But noooooooooo~ bloody idiots will sign the contract in 2021. Not in 2015,16 and so on .. even when FoC was done. Bloody idiots will wait for Indian government to move money from its one pocket to another.

Anyhow I won't post on this any further... this is India-US thread.

 

[Ashwin]

We are making RD-33MK since what? 2009? Locally. For Mig-29/Ks

RD-33MK is about 1152 KG in dry weight
Produces 88KN wet thrust. 54 KN dry thrust.
It has FADEC and burns fuel smokelessly, unlike RD-98 that Pakistan flies.
Its service life is 4000 hours.

It compares pretty well to F404

F404 has dry thrust of 50 KN
wet thrust of 84 KN
weight of 1072 KG.

So please don't give me this performance bullshit. I will take a lower performance jet engine than no jet engine at all. And in this case, I can not even call RD-33MK low performance.



The only Gyan we need is that there are more than 100 of those JF-17s flying right now while our blood plane is yet waiting for its engine. And we will get those engines at a formidable rate of *checks note* 2 per year. Good luck.

Last but not least, if our policies were not made by some stupid middle class penny wise idiot in south block, we would have made both versions. Increases our market and keeps a gun on the head of idiots like GE.

First of all, We did not produce RD-33MK but RD-33 Series 3. Even that had teething issues till late 00's. We started Mig-29 upgrade in 2010. So, It was out of the question to choose it in the 90s. Series 3 also lacks a basic feature needed for a single engine, called FADEC. Additionally, there are performance degradation issues in hot-and-high conditions and major serviceability issues. It was the worst choice back then and even today.

Rd-33mk has higher SFC, hence range and endurance of tejas would decrease significantly.
It also has 15% larger diameter than f404, so i won't fit.
Shoving a new engine is complex thing, it can even include things like having to redesign intakes and ducts.
Plus the usual writing an entirely new FADEC for engine, and flight software for jet, modifying an engine which meets the dimensions with different mounting points, strengthing those areas, and realignment of some subsystems for weight distribution.
Then this new modified varients goes through all the recertification and testing.

All in all it take years to customize an already existing engine which meets the performance and dimensions requirements to be compatible with the jet, assuming the jet doesn't require any significant modifications.

In rd-33mk case, the time it would take and result it would give, it would be much better to just scarp tejas, and focus the effort on tejas mk2 with ej200 or m88 engine varient.


Rd-33mk is not an option, never will be.

Unless a plane is designed with multiple engines in mind, it is just impossible to switch quickly. It will add 4-5 years easily to the development cycle.

Last but not least, if our policies were not made by some stupid middle class penny wise idiot in south block, we would have made both versions. Increases our market and keeps a gun on the head of idiots like GE.

Ironically, only a "stupid middle class penny wise idiot" who has no idea about any engineering development cycle will suggest such drastic changes callously.

 

[Saaho]

Ironically, only a "stupid middle class penny wise idiot" who has no idea about any engineering development cycle will suggest such drastic changes callously.

Oh and how is current US-India relations going for IAF future? Swellingly I guess?

And yes, India has a habit of being pennywise pound foolish in its policies. It shows.

 

[Ashwin]

Oh and how is current US-India relations going for IAF future? Swellingly I guess?

Oh, were they supposed to predict the future for the next few decades, that hormonal trump would come after two decades and mess up the relations for irrational reasons? Choices are made according to current available understanding then.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Oh and how is current US-India relations going for IAF future? Swellingly I guess?

And yes, India has a habit of being pennywise pound foolish in its policies. It shows.

No point in post mortems , time to think ahead. As of now the Trump administration hasn't touched the strategic aspects of our relationship with the US . It's still an economic dispute.

Let's hope things remain that way though one hopes the GoI / MoD / IAF start drawing up plans for contingencies lest the worst comes to pass & then we commence drawing up such plans.

Finally we need to do what we should've a decade ago. Start pumping money in local R&D including test facilities pronto such that when the MLU of the MK-1a is due in 10-12 years from now of the first set inducted , we don't see a repeat of this tamasha & have a local equivalent of the GE F-404 ready . Ditto for the F-414 equivalent.

Ar the time of writing this , there's still no sign of either. We should be more worried about that . Let's try to change things we can rather than worrying excessively about things out of our control.

 

[Saaho]

Trump's reluctance to sanction/tariff China is because of the one thing we lack: leverage.

Actually, we have leverage. Medical supplies. It will hurt USA immediately. But it will make us grossly unpopular everywhere because it will hurt common sick people.

However, we have a better option. Diversification. Just move away from the Satan Spawn that is America and have more diverse export markets. This is what many countries in Europe are doing. This is what China did. This is what we need to do. Cater to world and not just America. About time our Dhandhos learn to diversify and not go for easiest mark.

Oh, were they supposed to predict the future for the next few decades, that hormonal trump would come after two decades and mess up the relations for irrational reasons? Choices are made according to current available understanding then.

Absolutely! We have a policy of not buy front line fighters from USA for a reason.
Those who do not learn from past are condemned to repeat it.

Planning ahead is a thing. Stockpiling is a thing. Making hay when sun shines is again a thing.

And not trusting America is a big thing.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Trump had been railing against Indian trade barriers all through his election campaign. For example: import duties on Harley Davidson. Given the absolute majority he now enjoys in both houses, it should have been clear to GoI that he'd push in this direction.

Contingency plans should have been in place as soon as Trump was sworn in and the names of prospects for cabinet positions started doing the rounds. Jaishankar was at Trump's swearing in ceremony. I can't imagine he wouldn't have known which way the wind was blowing.

And that is why India was among first of the countries to start trade negotiations. Modi was quick to visit Trump too. Indian govt even took a step forward by removing digital taxes, easing duties etc and begining talks for military sales... The same military sales now people are saying was bad decision with the power of hindsight. So, the things you said should have happened, did happen.

And that's why I am saying, it's wrong to put onus on Indian diplomats only. Jaishankar wasn't the only one who attended his inaugration ceremony. All quad FM were there. So were head of states like meloni, millei etc..
No one got any favorable deal, because of the characteristics i mentioned in my previous post.
Just look at the cabinet and their history. You will find they are trumps "buddies", not republicans.

So, your assessment is wrong when you put onus on jaishankar or MEA. Because they are not doing negotiations right now, they are demanding things.
Japan, Taiwan had to buckle down cause they are vulnerable. And their domestic parties know that, hence a bipartisan consensus on giving into trumps demand. We aren't vulnerable to that extent, neither do we have a big partisan consensus on being optics heavy with trump.

This has more to do with Lula's active push for de-dollarization, imo. In India's case though, we were the least likely to side with BRICS on de-dollarization but Trump still chose to stick us. This is because our messaging in public and pvt discussions with US leaders are not in sync. Now the US is paying us back in the same coin. Navarro, Rubio, Bessent are all taking to the media what should have been part of pvt negotiations.

Eh? No, it isn't about de dollarisation. Otherwise you wouldn't tarrif countries but increase trade with them to have stronger grasp over currency. That's logic 101. It's purely egoistical and interference on trumps part. He even is sending navy to venezuela cause US doesn't recognise their current leader.

Navarro, rubio, bessent are doing damage control for the diplomatic and strategic fiasco trump created for USA that gave readymade ammunition to democrats. You are ignoring the effect of domestic politics on trumps foreign policy. He has a Bigboss image which he got cause he pledged that whole world will fear and respect america to his voters. Now they are doubling down on russian oil excuses to show that they are the "guys".

If Trump had no qualms meeting Syria's terrorist-turned-political leader, he won't show any deferrence to Infian sensitivities wrt Pak either. That's a given. In my view, we could have played for time by showing interest in the F-35, going through briefings, flight trials, et all. In due course, we could've said it didn't meet our requirements. That would have stalled US secondary sanctions and higher tarrifs in one stroke.

He cares lol. See, the thing is we don't consume US domestic media the way we do indian media. So our lens is set accordingly. But for US and their domestic politics.. they care who trump sides with. And he already is facing heat on several issues.. Epstein, Ukraine, inflation etc etc.. He is looking for scapegoats and he got one in India because Chinese are too strong and rest of them surrendered too soon to have any positive and long publicity for his image.
All you see now is just that, and trying to scare Indians and fear mongering over "oh what will happen to tejas.blah blah blah". Don't underestimate the arms and the big tech lobby, as if they will let one cabinet destroy the perspectives of billions of dollars when they've support from the other side of the aisle.

As for F-35.. the report about our denial for F-35 only came after tarrif were announced. So your point is moot as to what we should've done, cause that's what we did.

We clearly cannot afford direct confrontation with both the US and China. That's what forced us to patch up with the Chinese. But what do you think happens if Op Sindoor 2.0 started within a month or two?

Our patch up started long ago. Didn't you read what I wrote. Just because they weren't vocal about it didn't mean there were no backchannel talks.
You seem to think that's everything is hunky dory in China. It's also facing heat in the trade war. Despite the leverage they've got, they are also vulnerable due to their economy being heavily export oriented.
In IR relations don't stay static, they are dynamic. Today's friend maybe Tommorows enemy and enemy of enemy might be of use to me.
Only one thing matters, National interest. And if that demands that right now we show USA the symbol of RIC, BRICS.. then that's what we do.
We aren't USA's cold war or WW2 ally. They aren't treaty bound like NATO. So why are you counting on them so much? Didn't our army won despite US supporting Pakistan in previous wars? Then where is this fear mongering coming from?

As for op sindoor2.0.. what about it? You think Chinese want a hot war on their border right now? Or do you believe that USA will support Pakistan militarily ? Do you need US support to beat Pakistan? Why? What will Trump say to his media? Where's the trade leverage.. where's the ceasefire... Who will help subdue ? India or Pakistan? Who is weaker and vulnerable to US?

SO stop with this fearmongering.. our armed forces are more aware than we think. It's not UPA era when army knew they wouldn't be allowed to take any meaningful action and could relax in peace period.
Things have changed. Doklam, surgical strike, balakot, op sindoor have made army once again battle ready and in the battle mindset. They are preparing as we speak. As is our DRDO and govt. DRDO was so lax in past cause they had no impetus to provide weapons and armed forces weren't worried to hurry them either. Not the case anymore. Be ready to see advancements at faster pace now. Because if you fear war, don't you think those babus realise the stakes too? When that missile was intercepted over sirsa, what do you think would've gone through their mind? A fire wouldve lit under their *censored* to work hard now.

And have some patience. It's not doomsday by any criteria. Let things unfold. Less hysteria, more focus.

India has made it clear since day one that we don't want to be part of an Asian NATO. At best, we might provide MRO, limited basing or refueling services to US forces in the event of a Taiwan invasion. Doubt the Americans wouldn't have factored that in before doing what they did.

So what? On one hand youre worrying about OP Sindoor 2.0 and on other hand youre implying asian nato against China which will surely lead to Chinese whole attention shifting from taiwan to India and 100% 2 front war in this decade. Do you want that?

What Trump factors in his calculation is not the reason for us to give up on our own calculations! I really don't know what you want with this point.

Trump's reluctance to sanction/tariff China is because of the one thing we lack: leverage. And this is not even the half of it. Trump may be looking to tax remittances, slash H-1B visas and even hit the Indian services sector. That will hurt us more than the US, af least in the short term. Military sales might continue but it is now a Damocles sword hanging over our heads, one that could stall critical progs like LCA Mk1A/2.

Again, that inferiority complex and this things we Indians have that we don't even realise our own strength.
The whole point of tarrif and Trump is Trade! How will he explain giving up billions and aggravating the only democracy they have in Asia as leverage against China. Don't underestimate the tension of China that have gripped the US policymakers.
If he bans military sale, visas and our device sector. Ban big tech from Indian market. Where will they sell? EU which is slapping them up with laws on laws.. or west asia or asean with Chinese grip over them?
Even as we speak.. US businesses are expanding their portfolio and investment in India. Same with military. Why would they ban engines, just so we can stop our purchases of everything they sell? Do you think they won't calculate that? So chill and make in India.

We could have learned from fellow Quad member Japan. They offered Trump an investment deal of over $350 billion with caveats, much like those MoUs signed by state govts and GoI at the countless investment summits we hold every year. In due course, we could let it die a slow death.

This I agree with you. But I blame our society and the socialist tendency of our political discourse for it. The govt cant go to public saying we are gonna invest in USA and if govt nudged any industrialist consortia to invest.. NGOs will be out on street saying Bech dia. Which is moronic.

In an ideal world.. govt will bring a policy which encourages private businessman to invest in advanced technology sector in USA by buying stakes in US startups, companies like nvidia at smaller scale.
Heck! You can even buy back the land these rich guys have amaased as real state investment to provide them with liquidity. And then use the land to build innovation hubs. But all of that needs a society that celebrates money and success. Not sob stories and being poor.
Instead our kirana industry invest in liberal education program of foreign universities that are breeding ground for leftists. Which is under trumps radar. Then our kirana industry doesn't invest in research and science. Only tweaking, development etc.. Not IP ownership. Only since last 6-7 years after Jio, will you see the rise in patents and IP ownership of Indian companies. And it's led by startups, not Tata-Ambani.

 

[Hydra]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1958491773761630458

 

[Jaymax]

I've personally felt his public exposure has been on the higher side. There's rarely a week gone before you see a video of his uploaded on YT addressing some public seminar or some TT or doing a one on one interview or part of a group discussion & so on .

The problem with this is if you're in an adversarial position with global order of power distribution your PoV then gets highlighted which draws more attention to your position than necessary on controversial issues thus leaving you vulnerable to action in the worst case scenario.

I can't tell how much of this was an outreach to the aforementioned entities to put forward India's PoV on a whole host of matters more so for the extremely hostile position the western media has taken ever since the BJP government has come to power aided & abetted by desi coolies within & outside the country & how much of this was Jaishankar revelling in the limelight in the evening of his illustrious career.

Perhaps one overlapped with the other . These public engagements then are double edged swords. I'd like to see your views on the topic . @Jaymax

Trigger warning - View will trigger strong reactions. Discretion advised.

A average mandarin who was getting too much exposure was looped in by a PR chasing govt. He stepped into a role he wasnt ready for.
His aggressive media presence has not worked out as well as he would have hoped. Is it all his fault - absolutely not. The situation he faces is largely out of his control. Lets be honest - The west isnt exactly comfortable with India's rise. The old school meek and compliant approach hasnt been successful either - A US official once told India to not hit Pakistan after a major attack saying - If every country exercised its right to self defense, it would be impossible to maintain peace in the world. And India complied !!!!!!

Jaishankar came in looking to reset this equation. Instead he has managed to get India so isolated diplomatically thats it is a virtual repeat of the 80s. All the progress of the 2000s is lost - at least till carrot top is around. If you look at his performance it has been disappointing. As a person who spent his life in the corridors of diplomatic intrigue, he was supposed to know the system in an out and work it in India's favor. He has not been able to deliver.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Trigger warning - View will trigger strong reactions. Discretion advised.

A average mandarin who was getting too much exposure was looped in by a PR chasing govt. He stepped into a role he wasnt ready for.
His aggressive media presence has not worked out as well as he would have hoped. Is it all his fault - absolutely not. The situation he faces is largely out of his control. Lets be honest - The west isnt exactly comfortable with India's rise. The old school meek and compliant approach hasnt been successful either - A US official once told India to not hit Pakistan after a major attack saying - If every country exercised its right to self defense, it would be impossible to maintain peace in the world. And India complied !!!!!!

Jaishankar came in looking to reset this equation. Instead he has managed to get India so isolated diplomatically thats it is a virtual repeat of the 80s. All the progress of the 2000s is lost - at least till carrot top is around. If you look at his performance it has been disappointing. As a person who spent his life in the corridors of diplomatic intrigue, he was supposed to know the system in an out and work it in India's favor. He has not been able to deliver.

Just answer me this.. on one hand you talk about progress in 2000s while mentioning that India complied on US' orders putting security of people at stake. On other hand you're saying that supposed progress was undone because west can't handle India's rise and it's strong posture for self defence.

What would you prefer? A 26/11 followed by worlds sympathy and "non-isolation" but no action on ground leading to further terrorism in India.

OR

A swift bombing and attack on the heart of Pakistan and it's psyche to take matters in our own hands followed by " worded support" and "isolation" but a new normal and punishment to Pakistan.


Note : it might trigger the self defense mechanism of someones inferiority complex but..
After your supposed "isolation" we had one FTA, a red carpet rollout for PM on foreign soil by a cabinet which was anti-india, BRICS consensus, Meetings scheduled between Russia-India, China-India, MoUs with industry from various nations, philippines Prez outreach and interest in defense equipment, joint patrol with PN, opening of trade for REE, Tunnel boring machines, Grand parliament welcome in African nations and the sheer excitement for India, G-7 meet, Armenian delegation and many other happenings..and many more to come.
Were you taught some different definition of isolation, National interest and security? Or different concept for need of strength? Or are you so lost in self built narrative that overwrites reality ?

Just think for a moment. And then if you still think 2000s was better, I pray you get to live in similar environment in future, just not on Indian soil. Sorry and Thank you

 

[Saaho]

Trigger warning - View will trigger strong reactions. Discretion advised.

A average mandarin who was getting too much exposure was looped in by a PR chasing govt. He stepped into a role he wasnt ready for.
His aggressive media presence has not worked out as well as he would have hoped. Is it all his fault - absolutely not. The situation he faces is largely out of his control. Lets be honest - The west isnt exactly comfortable with India's rise. The old school meek and compliant approach hasnt been successful either - A US official once told India to not hit Pakistan after a major attack saying - If every country exercised its right to self defense, it would be impossible to maintain peace in the world. And India complied !!!!!!

Jaishankar came in looking to reset this equation. Instead he has managed to get India so isolated diplomatically thats it is a virtual repeat of the 80s. All the progress of the 2000s is lost - at least till carrot top is around. If you look at his performance it has been disappointing. As a person who spent his life in the corridors of diplomatic intrigue, he was supposed to know the system in an out and work it in India's favor. He has not been able to deliver.

My take is, you are drawing too much inference from what has happened in just few months. It's all because of an idiot in Whitehouse. If you want to look at it, look at it more broadly.

Do you believe that India was EVER going to have a better relationship with US than Canada? or EU?

Look at what's their condition is in dealing with America. Canada faces 36% tariffs. And a humiliating call to surrender even its sovereign existence. This is the kind of idiot you are dealing with. In 2025, he has surrounded himself with yes men and sycophants.

I do not understand why and how people believe that India will be able to secure a better deal with America? Based on what? Diplomacy? LOL! There is no diplomacy with USA.

There is one way, which we could have done. It's criminal and would have spoilt our relationship with future leaders of USA. It's bribing and slush funds.

Pakistan did it...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1958140184999985395

We could do the same or via someone like Adani Ambani or some other 3rd party we could do that. But remember, doing that means once this entire sordid deal goes public we will be tarred with same dirty brush as Pakistan. It's a very temporary high. And Trump is not even a professional criminal... he is an ameture bully.