IAF looking to acquire 2-3 squadrons of fifth-generation fighter jets from foreign sources

[Saaho]

Otoh, know why allows you to apply the same process (forging/machining, etc) to other progs and get the same quality of output, assuming basic engineering/pure science knowledge base already exists. It's the difference between screwdriver-giri vs indigenous IP.

Not really.

"Know why" means why certain choices were made in design of a product. It allows you to make same choices while building another product. And thats why it is impossible to transfer. Its basically teaching the research and development process.

"Know how" means how a certain product is made. What grade of underlying material is used, what processes are used to transform materials and labour into product. And no, it is NOT screwdriver-giri. Typically know how comes with a ToT process. Someone teaches you how to make an existing product.

As an example, Chinese hsr/bullet train tech is based on foriegn IP (Germany/Japan) with minimal local value addition but it's still considered Chinese IP vs our deal w/Japan for Shinkansen train sets.

Uhhh...

Chinese imported know how from Germans and Japanese in 2000s. CRH1, CRH2, CRH3, CRH5 were essentially licensed copies of European and Japanese HSRs.

Only in 2016 China launched CRH400s which was designed, developed and manifactured in China based on learnings of operating foreign rolling stock.

They are since then exporting CRH400s. You derive your own know whys based on experiences of know how and your own unique situation.

 

[Speedster1]

Uhhh...

Chinese imported know how from Germans and Japanese in 2000s. CRH1, CRH2, CRH3, CRH5 were essentially licensed copies of European and Japanese HSRs.

Only in 2016 China launched CRH400s which was designed, developed and manifactured in China based on learnings of operating foreign rolling stock.

They are since then exporting CRH400s. You derive your own know whys based on experiences of know how and your own unique situation.

Well, the Japanese certainly don't think so. Here's a quick background on how China is making incremental improvements to foriegn IP and competing in the export market for hsr/bullet trains against the same OEMs. The West considers it the price of doing business in China.

 

[Shan]

Stats for O&S costs for the F-35.

For the USAF specifically (which operates the F-35A variant), the annual operating cost per plane is estimated at approximately $7.1 million in 2025 dollars. This figure accounts for real-world O&S expenses, including maintenance, personnel, and sustainment, based on recent assessments. It exceeds earlier USAF estimates of $4.1 million per year due to higher-than-expected maintenance needs and lower availability rates. This is calculated assuming typical annual flying hours (around 200-250 per plane) and does not include one-time procurement costs.

What Might the Future Hold for the F-35?

Fresh debate over the F-35s challenges and its potential in the coming months will shape its future role in the force.

www.airandspaceforces.com

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-06/61347-F-35-Availability.pdf

What Might the Future Hold for the F-35?

Fresh debate over the F-35s challenges and its potential in the coming months will shape its future role in the force.

www.airandspaceforces.com

 

[Herciv]

According to the revised DAP 2020, no offsets are applicable on defence deals closed via FMS or IGAs (aka G2G deals) as a matter of policy. Unless DAP 2025 changes that, no 5G fighter acquisition with ToT would be possible anyway. Our preference for big-ticket deals has always been G2G.

Defence Ministry removes offset requirements for IGAs

Under the new policy, the offset guidelines have also been revised facilitating preference to defence majors offering to manufacture products in India over relevant components.

www.thehindu.com

That would mean any tech transfers that have taken place as part of Rafale (eg: RBE-2 TRM mfg at BEL, AASM/Hammer local production, etc) would have been purely due to commercial considerations.

Neither DA nor Sukhoi are obligated to transfer tech. Intriguing question: Why would GoI have foreclosed the F-35 option on ToT grounds when it's own DAP states otherwise?

Yes you're right. Since the revise DAP 2020 the only way to sell fighter to india is ToT. No more more offsets feasible like LM are always doing.

 

[Optimist]

Su-57MKI that is tailored for our needs is simply game-changing.

Russia with its back against the wall, is probably open to ToT, India would be in a strong bargaining position

 

[Shan]

Russia with its back against the wall, is probably open to ToT, India would be in a strong bargaining position

I have doubts about the SU-57's capabilities. The more I read, the more these doubts tend to solidify. I would rather produce SU30 MKIs and incorporate newer radars and EW systems (Super Sukhoi).

 

[Optimist]

India wants a 5th gen
Russian stuff, is Russian stuff, The SU-57 is still a tech jump

 

[Speedster1]

Imo, it was premature on the part of GoI to say no to F-35. They should've been more business like. A single vendor situation means less room for negotiation. And if the MKI contract is anything to go by (even the raw materials, nuts, bolts, fasteners, etc. came from Russia) we may have already lost the initiative.

Let's hope lessons have been learned.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Imo, it was premature on the part of GoI to say no to F-35. They should've been more business like. A single vendor situation means less room for negotiation. And if the MKI contract is anything to go by (even the raw materials, nuts, bolts, fasteners, etc. came from Russia) we may have already lost the initiative.

Let's hope lessons have been learned.

That's doesn't account the foundation that has been and being built in private defense industry of India. Neither does it account for the technological leap India has made from back then. And biggest factor being the position Russia was in back then and the one it finds itself in now. One more thing is the govt in power now in India, which is unlikely to neglect crucial dependence as previous ones.

And you're wrong in assuming that GOI is left with single vendor. AMCA is a very serious contender now. Especially with the focus on indigenous Engines.

Now factor in the limits in Su-57 capabilities, India has got the bargaining power of it wishes to utilise them. I think GOI would rather focus on co-production of technologies that India lacks in and far behind in foundation needed for development.

So, rather than Su-57, let's break down Su-57 and see where Russia just excels and where India outshined Russia. Build those. That includes engines, missiles, EW, ejection seats, etc.. Start initiatives like brahmos but for detection game. OTH radars are one system that GOI is eyeing. Many more scope of jv which could help both Russian economy and Indian economy and prowess. Even UAV & UUV tech which Russian industry is increasingly getting it's experience in during this war.

Su-57 is impractical because it's not the leap needed while being so eye catching that will result in need for another act of unnecessary balancing.

 

[Speedster1]

That's doesn't account the foundation that has been and being built in private defense industry of India. Neither does it account for the technological leap India has made from back then. And biggest factor being the position Russia was in back then and the one it finds itself in now. One more thing is the govt in power now in India, which is unlikely to neglect crucial dependence as previous ones.

And you're wrong in assuming that GOI is left with single vendor. AMCA is a very serious contender now. Especially with the focus on indigenous Engines.

Now factor in the limits in Su-57 capabilities, India has got the bargaining power of it wishes to utilise them. I think GOI would rather focus on co-production of technologies that India lacks in and far behind in foundation needed for development.

So, rather than Su-57, let's break down Su-57 and see where Russia just excels and where India outshined Russia. Build those. That includes engines, missiles, EW, ejection seats, etc.. Start initiatives like brahmos but for detection game. OTH radars are one system that GOI is eyeing. Many more scope of jv which could help both Russian economy and Indian economy and prowess. Even UAV & UUV tech which Russian industry is increasingly getting it's experience in during this war.

Su-57 is impractical because it's not the leap needed while being so eye catching that will result in need for another act of unnecessary balancing.

Point is we don't have a horse we we can bet on until 2035. Not one AMCA prototype exists today. An interim 5G fighter purchase is no longer an option given the changing threat perceptions. While our indigenous MIC has grown by leaps and bounds, this GoI has been stingy with funds. And this is a nationalist govt we're talking about.

The fact that the IAF is talking about Rafale source codes only now (since ordering the jets in 2016) shows that there are still some gaps in how we negotiate contracts, (even if we say that the MKI deal was signed over 25 years ago)

While a 'system of systems approach' has its advantages, the center piece will be a manned fighter for the foreseeable future. Anyways, my original point wrt MKI was about the need for foolproof contract terms for license producing a 5G airframe in India. At the moment, the IAF is only considering around 40 jets off the shelf.

 

[Saaho]

Well, the Japanese certainly don't think so. Here's a quick background on how China is making incremental improvements to foriegn IP and competing in the export market for hsr/bullet trains against the same OEMs. The West considers it the price of doing business in China.

What does it has to do with our discussion? China reverse engineers every bit of technology it imports. No one can give them Know Why. They figured out that based on their needs and Know how they gained from ToT and reverse engineering.

Imo, it was premature on the part of GoI to say no to F-35. They should've been more business like. A single vendor situation means less room for negotiation. And if the MKI contract is anything to go by (even the raw materials, nuts, bolts, fasteners, etc. came from Russia) we may have already lost the initiative.

Let's hope lessons have been learned.

No it was not. India has been saying no to F-35 for very long time.

 

[Saaho]

India wants a 5th gen
Russian stuff, is Russian stuff, The SU-57 is still a tech jump

If it has to go toe to toe with J-35, it is a good bet. Even better if we can get Israeli weapons on it. Right now, we should put all the money in finishing long range Astra missile.

 

[Shan]

The amount of RUMINT that is being floated about 5 gen and 4.5 procurements is reaching ridiculous levels.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Point is we don't have a horse we we can bet on until 2035. Not one AMCA prototype exists today. An interim 5G fighter purchase is no longer an option given the changing threat perceptions. While our indigenous MIC has grown by leaps and bounds, this GoI has been stingy with funds. And this is a nationalist govt we're talking about.

The fact that the IAF is talking about Rafale source codes only now (since ordering the jets in 2016) shows that there are still some gaps in how we negotiate contracts, (even if we say that the MKI deal was signed over 25 years ago)

While a 'system of systems approach' has its advantages, the center piece will be a manned fighter for the foreseeable future. Anyways, my original point wrt MKI was about the need for foolproof contract terms for license producing a 5G airframe in India. At the moment, the IAF is only considering around 40 jets off the shelf.

I agree that we don't have any near term solution for inducting a 5th Gen FA. But the solution isn't to buy highly expensive systems in limited number that IAF might not be able to afford given it's other needs too.

"Stingy" is the last word I will use for the govt. Don't go on comparing with USA and China with economies 3X , 4X , 5X of India. I don't know if you've looked at it, but there are many lucrative schemes out there and subsidies and funds/loans available for the interested. While it's good to dream, but money can't solve the issue of lack of technologies mastered by DRDO or concerned agencies.. the technologies that are important to build the advanced systems.

How many of us knew the advances made by our scientist in radars, dew, Integrated systems etc before we saw them work with our own eyes during op sindoor. All of that required funds too.
And please consider the fact that GOI didn't have an option of F-35 before Feb 2025 meeting. Neither did Russia was pushing Su-57 with offers like dedicated wingman etc.. offers that are limited to unofficial channels so far. For that, we need to wait till Putin's visit to see their sincerity. Russia has enough in with indian defense officials to spread news of 'unprecedented' offers in media while no clarity on official offers.

As for AMCA, we didn't even have the capability to build a 4th gen in timely manner, let alone 5th gen. Meanwhile, IAF, HAL, DRDO, GOI did try to solve engine issue with GE-414 proposal and buying 404 as incentives too. The bet went wrong with US' policy dynamics.. and now we see a better approach taken by GOI. Showing greater confidence in DRDOs capabilities to absorb tech and greater leverage too. Ofcourse, it would have been better to go with a jv 5 years ago.. but then again, for a ministry to be infamous for its lethargy and chalta hai attitude.. this is quite the leap.

While much more needs to be done in making an efficient ecosystem, not everything depends on making policies. Agencies also have to accept those changes and adapt to policies. It takes time.. taking more than anyone of us would've liked but nothing compared to our Anthony sahib legacy.

Even now for all the ambitious projects undertaken by DRDO.. many of them are in paper only except missile tech to an extent. And further reforms are needed in recruitment, distribution of funds inside DRDO, increasing liberalisation for private sector and dcpp model, for most of those ambitious projects to see the light of day in timely manner.

All those babus and heads of departments in DPSUs and DRDO are addicted to the way of working in previous decades. They aren't very open to the idea of reforms that can take away their hold over the process. Hold used to get kickbacks, departmental politics etc.

As for rafael source code.. I 100% agree with you. But then again 2016 were different times.

We don't know exactly what IAF is considering now and how will it change its requirements later. But it's not IAFs job to negotiate for the extent of licensing/ co-production. They need FA, they probably sent the necessary details regarding their operational need to MoD through CDS. Just days ago there was news that IAF has recommended 40-50 F-35, now we hear no F-35. So, Unless we really know what IAF suggested officially... it's premature to say that IAF only want off the shelf FA.

P.S. It's just been 10 years. TEN years only! For us to be where we are from where we were. We seemed to have forgotten the days of 2000-2013.

 

[Milspec]

If MKI's performance was superlative versus J-10 and other Pak assets than Su-57MKI that is tailored for our needs is simply game-changing. It was never Junk, just made to look so because IAF wanted to get over 200 Rafales first and foremost. But now thankfully, they are back on ground and are going to procure what is best for us.

Ama yaar, kahe ko phizzool me feathers ko ruffle kar raho ho

 

[Speedster1]

Only in 2016 China launched CRH400s which was designed, developed and manifactured in China based on learnings of operating foreign rolling

What does it has to do with our discussion? China reverse engineers every bit of technology it imports. No one can give them Know Why. They figured out that based on their needs and Know how they gained from ToT and reverse engineering.

The odds are low for any reverse engineered product to be as goods the original. I was merely pointing out Chinese industrial espionage/forced ToT is aimed at securing the very thing that according to you can't be transferred.

Securing know how is the basis of their Thousand Talents and other progs. In the case of hsr, it is only incremental value-addition in violation of IPR laws. This has been covered extensively by WaPo, DW and other Western media.

 

[Speedster1]

Stingy" is the last word I will use for the govt. Don't go on comparing with USA and China with economies 3X , 4X , 5X of India. I don't know if you've looked at it, but there are many lucrative schemes out there and subsidies and funds/loans available for the interested. While it's good to dream, but money can't solve the issue of lack of technologies mastered by DRDO or concerned agencies.. the technologies that are important to build the advanced systems.

Our national R&D budget is pitiful compared to the size of our economy and our strategic aspirations. No amount of jugaad by our scientists could make up for penny pinching on the part of the babudom. Our process of approvals for IISc and other institutions to source equipment from abroad is so convoluted, you wouldn't believe it.

As for rafael source code.. I 100% agree with you. But then again 2016 were different times.

We don't know exactly what IAF is considering now and how will it change its requirements later. But it's not IAFs job to negotiate for the extent of licensing/ co-production. They need FA, they probably sent the necessary details regarding their operational need to MoD through CDS

Source codes are part of technical bids, not commercial ones. That is the domain of the end user, not GoI.

In any case, the IAF has had its heart set on 114 Rafale going all the way back to 2007 when MMRCA was launched. 'No Plan B' as one ACM famously said. Why negotiate for source codes now- more than 10 yrs later? Do we need a professional cadre similar to IAS/IPS solely for contract negotiation.

And please consider the fact that GOI didn't have an option of F-35 before Feb 2025 meeting. Neither did Russia was pushing Su-57 with offers like dedicated wingman etc.. offers that are limited to unofficial channels so far. For that, we need to wait till Putin's visit to see their sincerity. Russia has enough in with indian defense officials to spread news of 'unprecedented' offers in media while no clarity on official offers.

With AMCA being funded so late in the day, GoI should have been hedging its bets with F-35 vs Su-57. Of course, at the moment, Trump's shenanigans have made F-35 highly unlikely for the IAF.

To your point, LM has been making presentations to IAF/IN brass for a while. I also recall LM getting US govt approval for a classified briefing sometime last decade.

Russia is so desperate for orders that it is pitching everything from used Kilos to Su-57, hoping we'll bite. However, they have a nasty habit of renege -ing on signed deals. Let's see what happens.

 

[Saaho]

The odds are low for any reverse engineered product to be as goods the original.

Not correct. AMD processors started out as reverse engineered clones of Intel and went on to best intel processors in their own game.
Dell, HP etc started out as clones of IBM PCs and even in the first generation they beat the big blue black and blue.

Depends upon what you are trying to do.

Securing know how is the basis of their Thousand Talents and other progs. In the case of hsr, it is only incremental value-addition in violation of IPR laws. This has been covered extensively by WaPo, DW and other Western media.

Not completely correct. They are exporting the same stuff to likes of Indonesia. If there were so called IPR violations, they would have had massive issues in selling that. There is such thing as clean room reverse engineering and HSR is not really a brand new technology.

Also, do not count out incremental improvements. Its lack of incremental improvements that should worry you.

 

[Saaho]

I have doubts about the SU-57's capabilities. The more I read, the more these doubts tend to solidify. I would rather produce SU30 MKIs and incorporate newer radars and EW systems (Super Sukhoi).

I have bigger doubts about Jaguars, Mig 29 and Mirages we are flying. Not to mention absolute lack of BVR A2A missiles in our arsenal.
By now museum pieces should have been relegated to museum and only Samosas, Rafales and Su-30MKIs should have been flying as our frontline fighters.

I will take Su-30MKI, Su-57MKI, Rafales and Samosas of all sorts as our fleet. Rest need to go to boneyard. And I would have done it in 2015 itself without waiting for third wave feminists dance therapy that is HAL and South Block.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Our national R&D budget is pitiful compared to the size of our economy and our strategic aspirations. No amount of jugaad by our scientists could make up for penny pinching on the part of the babudom. Our process of approvals for IISc and other institutions to source equipment from abroad is so convoluted, you wouldn't believe it.


Source codes are part of technical bids, not commercial ones. That is the domain of the end user, not GoI.

In any case, the IAF has had its heart set on 114 Rafale going all the way back to 2007 when MMRCA was launched. 'No Plan B' as one ACM famously said. Why negotiate for source codes now- more than 10 yrs later? Do we need a professional cadre similar to IAS/IPS solely for contract negotiation.


With AMCA being funded so late in the day, GoI should have been hedging its bets with F-35 vs Su-57. Of course, at the moment, Trump's shenanigans have made F-35 highly unlikely for the IAF.

To your point, LM has been making presentations to IAF/IN brass for a while. I also recall LM getting US govt approval for a classified briefing sometime last decade.

Russia is so desperate for orders that it is pitching everything from used Kilos to Su-57, hoping we'll bite. However, they have a nasty habit of renege -ing on signed deals. Let's see what happens.

I mostly agree with you on what you said now.


But R&D problem, i believe is a systematic issue. It's much more deep than govt spending. It's the psychology of people that needs to change. From running after jobs, people need to start running business. That's the first step towards creation and autonomy. I believe the future R&D in India will be led by startups. Not legacy conglomerates of India.

Most of our big "industrialist" were just successor of east india merchants or a kirana shop at larger scale. All these industrialist produce cheaply here to aid consumption in foreign countries. Or just import, manufacture a bit locally and then sell.

My point being is that neither the rich invested in india and R&D in India, neither the govt pushed them.
We see that changing. And it's not govt initiative but I see our generation more attracted towards R&D and the proposed R&D scheme hopefully will boost it. And make in India can't happen without R&D.. so, that should be the next plan when focusing on growing Startup sector especially in defense since that's what we are concerned with here.

Remember, it's been just 10 years! 10 years since we have a govt that's more proactive towards manufacturing.. a core to any R&D initiative. And our Beauracracy is still filled with B.A pass boomers. As they keep retiring, private players( small) have more stakes and share in indias growth.. hopefully R&D will frogleap. I am very optimist in that regard.

Source codes are part of technical bids, not commercial ones. That is the domain of the end user, not GoI.

In any case, the IAF has had its heart set on 114 Rafale going all the way back to 2007 when MMRCA was launched. 'No Plan B' as one ACM famously said. Why negotiate for source codes now- more than 10 yrs later? Do we need a professional cadre similar to IAS/IPS solely for contract negotiation.

Those two paragraphs that you answered for..are not related. They answer different points of yours, in your earlier post.

For negotiation, I was talking about licensing wrt to mki and future negotiations. Not the technical needs.

With AMCA being funded so late in the day, GoI should have been hedging its bets with F-35 vs Su-57. Of course, at the moment, Trump's shenanigans have made F-35 highly unlikely for the IAF.

What hedging? There should be offer on the table to hedge. And even the unofficial "reports" of russian offer are to blunt the "offer" from LM.

And how do you propose we would have funded AMCA when the industry couldn't even build a 4th Gen FA. Even now, if AMCA goes to HAL led consortium.. it's doomed!!
The fact that it's funded now is a statement in itself and works as a leverage. Specially in these uncertain times.
We are in defense forum, so we are very open to the idea of funding of AMCA etc.. the public wouldn't be. Activists would be having a field day of it was done before op sindoor. As I said, the Beauracracy and public psyche leaves very much to desire. Govt is just the reflection of it.

To your point, LM has been making presentations to IAF/IN brass for a while. I also recall LM getting US govt approval for a classified briefing sometime last decade.

And the wider defense cooperation with US has indeed increased. I don't know what LM talked to IAF etc.. but so many things happen in the corridor of powers that's it's naive for us to think that it's just a question of yes/no.

Russia is so desperate for orders that it is pitching everything from used Kilos to Su-57, hoping we'll bite. However, they have a nasty habit of renege -ing on signed deals. Let's see what happens.

Agreed!