I get the excitement around AMCA but, realistically, by the time India fields its first squadron, the US and China will be well into their sixth-gen programs. It’s a step forward for India but it’s not going to suddenly put the them in the “next superpower” category. They won't be viewed as a serious challenger to the throne unless China completely implodes in the next decade or so.
From the US side, I think there’s a growing recognition that a real alliance with India just isn’t happening. I'm not even sure if Trump-2 or the former Biden admin wanted a formal alliance with India. I think those ambitions died with Shinzo Abe. That said, the US can still get what it needs out of India - limited cooperation on shared interests, mainly around China.
If the US gives India what it wants (on trade, tech transfers, work visas, etc), New Delhi will push back on China when it directly threatens Indian interests, and there’ll be plenty of photo ops and hand shaking on tv. India will almost certainly not assist in a Taiwan or similar crisis beyond some logistical support at best.
If the US doesn’t give India what it wants, New Delhi will still push back on China when it threatens Indian interests. Just with less fanfare and less help from the US (i.e intelligence).
It’s taken Washington some time to get here, but this is basically the current state of things. I used to be pretty optimistic about a deeper US-India alignment, but it’s clear India wants to stay non-aligned and focus on strategic autonomy. That is fair and probably the right call for the far future. But it means that there’s not much point in the US offering more concessions when the strategic outcome stays the same.
And as others have said, US-India trade isn’t at a level where these tariffs are catastrophic. India might face slower growth or shift more toward other markets for services. The more interesting question going forward is probably how much Pakistan benefits if the US starts turning that way again.
Please note I said " second China in 'coming'". AMCA isn't about a 5th gen or a 6th gen. It's about autonomy. An indigenous FA( with engine too) has been so far limited to dream for several reasons.
When it comes, in its
intended form.. that will mark a new chapter in India's self reliance. And that won't come in isolation but with it will be a strong industrial base and stronger and more resilient economy. Perhaps that day the foundation will be completed. The foundation on which india can stand i.e. private market. Here i am talking about ambitious 5.5 gen. With AI, MUMT etc.
And mind you, there will be many geopolitical churn.. so the fact AMCA happened will mean india withstood the turbulence. No one would want india to really build full FA, so they will try to derail it 100%. This is just a glimpse. A symbolic milestone whose herald means substantial growth of Indians.
As for alliance, India was very clear from start that Quad won't be any official military alliance. We don't do that. Especially when we are the only one that share the land border with China. It's different constraint. And USA boots on Indian soil in an active clash is big no no.. because we have seen what happened to Pakistan.
I don't believe India asked for any special concession, neither have USA given any concession that wasn't beneficial for it. So the concept of giving concession doesn't even arise.
Meanwhile, don't forget.. india is probably the last substantial market available to US big tech available in years to come. They are banned in china, not trusted in EU and west asia, and have no substantial user base in Africa. I will say the sheer data Indians provide in absence of very strict and strong data protection bill is huge reciprocity for American tech transfer which btw haven't happened substantially yet.
This goods trade deficit is huge misrepresentation of actual trade. US earns way more out of India then a simple goods trade would suggest.
The services domain in advanced technology is skewed in favor of USA.
So USA is not giving any concession while it's constantly pushing India away due to the nature of tone used by trump and him crossing several red line of india vis a vis Pakistan already, which they can. Similarly we can buy oil from Russia.
As for US support to pak.. I think it's like US and China has reached a common consensus that India is getting stronger than they would like after op sindoor. If that is not so, then either one of china or USA will get royally fd like in laden case.
Nothing much will happen to pak except it will be able to support it's economy artificially again. Embolden military and terrorists. That's where I won't comment prematurely on India's response. And I doubt USA or China will give anything real to Pakistanis. Only keep the general well fed. USA will have learned by now from China on how to suck more n more out of pak
Sorry for randomness.
.. ab puche ki aaj hi kyu lagaye tarrifs.
